Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor scores its biggest two-party poll lead of the term from Roy Morgan, which records a particularly big blowout in Victoria.

Roy Morgan published results on Wednesday of its latest federal voting intention polling, as it does from time to time, in this case combining surveys conducted over the past two weekends from 2709 respondents. This shows Labor with its biggest lead of the term, from this or any other pollster: 53.5-46.5, out from 52.5-47.5 in the poll it published in mid-July. The Coalition and Labor are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively being down two and steady, while the Greens are up a point to 12.5% and One Nation is steady on 3%. These numbers have ticked the BludgerTrack poll aggregate a further 0.4% to Labor, who are now credited with a lead 52.4-47.6.

State breakdowns of the two-party vote are provided, showing Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (for a swing in their favour of about 3% compared with the 2019 election), 59.5-40.5 in Victoria (a swing of about 6.5%, and three points stronger for Labor than the previous poll), 55.5-44.5 in South Australia (a swing of about 5%) and 54-46 in Tasmania (a 2% swing to the Liberals, although the sample size here is particularly flimsy), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%) and 51.5-48.5 in Western Australia (a swing of about 4%, which is a fair bit more modest than other polling from WA recently).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,778 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. ‘a r says:
    Friday, August 6, 2021 at 10:36 am

    Spring is in the air…

    Too soon. That’s climate change for you.’
    ______________________________
    Thank god there is something positive to be said about global warming.

  2. Victoria

    Chris O’Keefe
    @cokeefe9
    ·
    18m
    Hearing Year 12 will not go back in 8 “hot spot” LGA’s on August 16 as planned. Schools being asked to conduct trial exams at home.
    @9NewsAUS

    So Berejiklian thanking Newcastle and the regional areas for giving up their Pfizer so the migrant kiddies of SW Sydney could do their HSC and better themselves is complete bullshit. You think she would wait more than 24 hours before throwing them under a bus.

    It should be the same rules for every student in the state.

    By allowing most HSC students to attend school, but excluding those in the lockdown LGAs, she will statistically disadvantage kids in the latter LGAs. Some of these kids are already disadvantaged, and this compared to those in higher socio-economic areas. A few-point relative difference in your HSC score can certainly reduce your chances of your dream to be a vet, dentist, medico etc.

    p.s A study some years ago showed that kids who come from higher socio-economic backgrounds do about 10 points better in the HSC than their compatriots. This is was evaluated by comparing their performance after two years of university – the poor kids did relatively better.

    Good for the poor kids who get into their degree of choice, but it was relatively harder for them to get in in the first place. Many would have missed out.

  3. boerwar @ #100 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 8:38 am

    I had a conversation with an expat in the PI this morning. New drastic lockdown. Delta cutting a swathe. They are jabbing 600,000 a day in the PI despite its humungous infrastructure and organizational problems. This puts Duterte well ahead of Morrison.
    Sinovacc not quite useless against Delta, so still worth taking if you can get nothing else.
    Kids have pretty well missed a year and a half of school.
    Knows Oz citizen peeps who have been in and out of Australia three times since Covid began.
    The thing to remember with the expats who are demanding entry and exit at will and screaming blue murder if they are thwarted is that they are putting their personal interests over their national interest. They are extremely often potential vectors from locations with sky high rates of Covid infections.
    And since many of them are dual citizens you might well ask just exactly what THEIR national interest might be.

    Why shouldn’t an Australian citizen have more rights to leave and return to Australia than a non-citizen?

  4. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #94 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 10:20 am

    I was talking last night with a colleague, late 20s, who has just returned to work having recovered from COVID.

    He was describing the symptoms he experienced and I was struck by how similar many were to the initial effects of moving to high altitude.

    The shortness of breath, unable to move quickly for more than the briefest time, waking up in the night felling like you were suffocating because you were sleeping in the wrong position and your lungs couldn’t fully expand.

    At least the effects of altitude passed in a day or so.

    A morbid diversion a bit early in the morning.

    Two different causes, same outcome, Barney, as you surely know.

    A perfect description of ‘hypoxia’ (not enough oxygen) and hypoxaemia (not enough oxygen being carried in the blood). One from failing lungs to get the ambient oxygen (natural, or augmented by oxygen therapy) through to the circulation. The other not enough ambient oxygen to start with. Ultimately, at the extreme, it’s what death is – not enough oxygen – either by stopping the oxygen, or stopping the blood flow, its delivery.

    BB had a brush with the latter, if I can presume to use him as an example, pace pace. He had a TIA – and Transient (temporary) Ischaemic (lack of adequately oxygenated blood flow) Attack (episode). I hope he is making good progress.

  6. Douglas and milko

    Agreed. Unless special consideration is provided to these students when they apply for a tertiary course.

  7. Tex Walker a disgrace to AFL and his club:

    Adelaide Crows veteran Taylor Walker has been handed a whopping six-match suspension following an AFL investigation into a racial slur he made towards North Adelaide player Robbie Young during a SANFL match in July.
    Walker has has also been hit with a massive $20,000 fine that will be donated to an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander program and he will undertake an education program which requires AFL approval.

  8. Rnm1953 @ #86 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 10:18 am

    Some media commentary that when/ if we get vaccinated and covid becomes a thing of the past prior to the election, Scummos popularity will bounce back.
    I guess their logic is that despite his behaviour during bushfires, voters moved on and the same will happen again.
    IMO the big flaw in this thinking is that while we were all sympathetic to the plight of those affected, we were sympathizing from afar.
    Covid is a whole new ball game.
    Nearly everyone in Oz is directly affected and if this continues to drag out to say the end of the year I dont think voters will forget by May 2022.

    ‘Some media commentary that when/ if we get vaccinated and covid becomes a thing of the past prior to the election, Scummos popularity will bounce back.’

    Of course, this is when a popular ‘alternative’ Prime minister would come in handy.

  9. Hh
    It would be remarkable if the pervasive racism in Australia were not to be expressed by a random selection of AFL players from time to time.
    What IS historically remarkable is an individual getting absolutely pasted for his racist behaviour.
    Well done, the AFL.
    And good on Straya. We are getting there, bit by bit.

  10. I was gratified to see in Wayne Swan’s op-ed today that he recognizes the fashion for denigrating any and all politicians as corrupt for what it is: an unfortunately largely successful attempt to destroy trust in what he terms “the political class”.

    If you destroy trust then all that is left is transactional politics based on what benefits and concessions voters can extract out of politicians in exchange for their vote. A corollary of this is that any honest politician who asks for the voters’ trust is laughed off the political stage.

    Of course not all voters have had their minds poisoned by the “He must be lying because he’s a politician” meme, but enough have been affected so as to make it an effective message. But enough are.

  11. mundo
    You are a droll Liberal concern troll.
    You are absolutely, boringly and utterly predictable.
    Post after post after post you snipe and snark at Labor.

  12. BB
    Exactemundo. It is straight out of the extreme Right small government playbook. The Greens with their same old same old are in that game as well.
    But they are too dopey to actually grasp the ramifications of their activities.

  14. mundo @ #NaN Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 9:11 am

    Victoria @ #35 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 8:53 am

    Socrates

    What riles me is that the coalition have wasted so much money on rorts.

    Sports and carparks come to mind.
    Yet they couldn’t find the money to fund purpose built quarantine or secure vaccines.

    Instead we have this rolling shit show which is costing exponentially more in money terms and more importantly health terms.

    Morrison should resign in shame.
    And he can take Gladys with him.

    No wonder Labor is 70/30 ahead in the polls…..

    It’s never enough for you, mundo, is it? 🙄

  15. boerwar @ #105 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 8:46 am

    BiTJ
    First principles.
    Half of Australia is locked down because international arrivals are vectors.

    So, that is an issue for quarantine, and nothing to do with the nationality of arrivals.

    We allow a limited number of people to enter the country.

    Why should a non-citizen be preferred to a citizen?

    It seems the ability to afford a 1st / business class ticket is a significant factor.

    This also seems to apply to some citizens, allowing some to come and go as they wish.

  16. Queensland has recorded 10 new locally acquired COVID-19 cases.

    Queensland has recorded 10 cases of coronavirus in the community in the past 24 hours, Deputy Premier Steven Miles says.

    Mr Miles said today’s results were “very, very promising”.

    All the cases are household contacts and directly linked to the Delta outbreak which started at Indooroopilly State High School, in Brisbane’s inner west.

    Five cases are household contacts of Ironside State School cases, three are household contacts of Indooroopilly State High School, and two are household contacts of Brisbane Grammar School cases.

    Five of the new cases are children and five are adults.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/brisbane/queensland-records-10-new-community-cases-of-covid-19/ar-AAMZqFg?ocid=msedgntp

  20. BiTJ
    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Friday, August 6, 2021 at 10:58 am

    boerwar @ #105 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 8:46 am

    BiTJ
    First principles.
    Half of Australia is locked down because international arrivals are vectors.

    So, that is an issue for quarantine, and nothing to do with the nationality of arrivals.
    …’
    ___________________________________
    Bullshit. It is the expats, including those duals who are gaming the system, who are screaming their heads off.

  21. shellbell at 10:36 am

    Poroti

    Big units getting bigger.

    The gold medal guy is a monster. 145kg and 201 cm . No wonder he makes the other 2 XL gents look a bit small.

  22. And the worst thing about the erosion of political trust is that, perversely, the ones you should trust the least are the political parties people trust the most!

    Who can forget:
    “Who do you trust?”

  36. “ Australia’s vaccination plan is 6 months too late and a masterclass in jargon, proclaims Lesley Russell. She’s not wrong!
    https://theconversation.com/australias-vaccination-plan-is-6-months-too-late-and-a-masterclass-in-jargon-165603”

    ________

    Nah. To be fair the rollout is only 4 months too late, if one takes into account the UQ and AstraZeneca set backs.

    Only 4 months hey. FMD. What a disaster. All those lucky gains from last year blown away between the fecklessness, arrogance and hubris of ScoMo and Gladbags.

    Our suppression strategy is failing before our eyes. Thanks Gladys.

    No ring of steel around sydney means that Delta has gotten into the regions and interstate. Thanks Gladys.

    No strict application of understandable and tough health orders meant that delta got transferred to a transport driver and hence into the community. Thanks Gladys.

    Airborne transmission has meant that hotel quarantines were not viable. That’s been a ‘known known’ for 12 months. Yet the commonwealth – with its constitutional responsibilities for our borders and broad quarantine powers has done SFA to fix THAT. Thanks Scotty.

    And then the quarantine rollout clusterfuck. Not only is there inadequate supply (thanks Scotty) ot is clear that no well developed plan has been thought out as to how to deliver ~ 2 million jabs per week, particularly in those migrant communities in the outer rim of our major cities that need it most. Let alone any real effort to work with those communities to make it happen. Thanks to both ScoMo (who’d prefer to pose next to a uniform and in front of a flag than talk to ethnic community leaders) and Gladbags.

    The worst public policy failure since the fall of Singapore. Only worse – as the necessary steps to avoid our current clusterfuck were totally known this time around.

  37. boerwar @ #111 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 10:55 am

    mundo
    You are a droll Liberal concern troll.
    You are absolutely, boringly and utterly predictable.
    Post after post after post you snipe and snark at Labor.

    No I don’t Dickwad.
    I make perfectly sensible comments based on years and years of observing politics in Australia.
    You disagree with a lot of what I think.
    So what.
    Get a grip you tedious twerp.
    I don’t know about you but I can’t think of anything worse than SfM and his band of corrupt incompetents being returned at the next election.
    I am in fact a Labor concern troll.
    Get used to it.
    Now fuk off.

  39. I said on the weekend my opinion is that Gladys has given up. She’s disengaged and clearly has lost interest in this crisis.

  40. students in the 8 LGAs will not have F2F education for the foreseeable future. There will be a “flexible model” for students outside the western and south western Sydney LGAs. Incredible how her HSC call just happened to turn out.— Ingrid M (@iMusing) August 6, 2021

  41. I just came back from the mechanics. While I was there I got into a conversation with a woman who was the Practice Manager for a leading Sydney Epidemiologist. She told me that he has access to information about who does what and when in this pandemic and she conveyed to me that about 150 people from the Central Coast and about the same number from Newcastle, went to the ‘Freedom March’ a couple of Saturday’s ago. Incubating…incubating…

  44. Has Lars von Liberal been around yet to tell us how great Australia is going with the vaccination rollout? Whilst ignoring everything else about the Coalition’s handling of the pandemic SNAFU? 😆

  47. The Real NSW numbers:
    91 in iso
    48 full wild
    48 part wild
    104 under investigation
    = Up to 200 infectious in the community

    That the numbers still going up indicates to me that the settings aren’t tight enough…

  48. From the Guardian:

    The students who live in those eight local government areas of concern will not be able to have any face-to-face time for the foreseeable future until otherwise advised, however, in areas outside of those local government areas there will be a flexible model for HSC students, if you need to go into the classroom for whatever reason in order to pick up material or do some face-to-face exams or whatever is required.

    Trails will be done at home and at least it means that there is certainty and all students know they will qualify for the HSC but also obviously importantly from Monday next week, HSC students in those eight local government areas will be invited to get the Pfizer jab, and most of those students are between the ages of 16 and 18 years of age and we do encourage your student to make sure they come forward for that opportunity.

    This makes no sense – she says she is going Pfizer to the students in the locked down LGAs, but they still cannot go into their schools.

  50. @LukeCostin
    ·
    3m
    KFC Punchbowl was made a close contact venue last night for all people there in past week
    We now know why
    TWELVE staff have tested positive

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