Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor scores its biggest two-party poll lead of the term from Roy Morgan, which records a particularly big blowout in Victoria.

Roy Morgan published results on Wednesday of its latest federal voting intention polling, as it does from time to time, in this case combining surveys conducted over the past two weekends from 2709 respondents. This shows Labor with its biggest lead of the term, from this or any other pollster: 53.5-46.5, out from 52.5-47.5 in the poll it published in mid-July. The Coalition and Labor are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively being down two and steady, while the Greens are up a point to 12.5% and One Nation is steady on 3%. These numbers have ticked the BludgerTrack poll aggregate a further 0.4% to Labor, who are now credited with a lead 52.4-47.6.

State breakdowns of the two-party vote are provided, showing Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (for a swing in their favour of about 3% compared with the 2019 election), 59.5-40.5 in Victoria (a swing of about 6.5%, and three points stronger for Labor than the previous poll), 55.5-44.5 in South Australia (a swing of about 5%) and 54-46 in Tasmania (a 2% swing to the Liberals, although the sample size here is particularly flimsy), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%) and 51.5-48.5 in Western Australia (a swing of about 4%, which is a fair bit more modest than other polling from WA recently).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,778 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 36
1 2 3 … 36

  1. Victoria @ #35 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 8:53 am

    Socrates

    What riles me is that the coalition have wasted so much money on rorts.

    Sports and carparks come to mind.
    Yet they couldn’t find the money to fund purpose built quarantine or secure vaccines.

    Instead we have this rolling shit show which is costing exponentially more in money terms and more importantly health terms.

    Morrison should resign in shame.
    And he can take Gladys with him.

    No wonder Labor is 70/30 ahead in the polls…..

  2. Socrates @ #29 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 8:49 am

    Steve
    “ And Michelle Grattan thinks we will need an inquiry to learn from rollout mistakes”

    This should be one of the first acts of an incoming Labor Government.”

    I agree and would go further. We need an inquiry into both quarantine and vaccination to learn what the mistakes were and what motivated them. There are so many details we still don’t know, especially on vaccine orders.
    – Where did the vaccine money go?
    – What consultants were employed? Why?
    – How much was the CSL contract? Who has shares?
    – Why didn’t we go for an mRNA vaccine? Why not local manufacturing?
    – Who knocked back Pfizer in 2020? Was it over money?
    – Who decided not to built specialist quarantine? Was it over money or something else?
    – Who decided who got to fly in/out? What criteria were used? Any ministerial involvement?

    A huge number of unanswered questions.

    There’s enough to keep the LNP in opposition for a generation.
    But,…….

  3. BK @ #15 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 8:09 am

    First question to Gladys this morning should be, “Was it a wise thing to do for Victoria to go into an immediate lockdown after only eight new cases?”

    Her answer would be, “Let me just first say that the most important thing is that you get vaccinated, please understand that is our ticket out of here”.

  4. And Michelle Grattan thinks we will need an inquiry to learn from rollout mistakes

    Over the years Grattan has been generally more sympathetic to the LNP than Labor. However the Morrison government has been so corrupt and incompetent that she really has no alternative than to take them to task.

  5. Socrates @ #22 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 8:38 am

    Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup. Scomo’s reaction to the car-pork questions yesterday was pretty egregious. Apart from running he suggested the projects were good. Rubbish. One of the many failings the audit picked up was that some of the car parks went way over budget due to lack of planning.

    As for the poll, interesting. I think the swings in Vic and Qld are not surprising. Its pretty galling to go into a lockdown, have no financial assistance, then see the same government give financial assistance to NSW when it is in lockdown. Does Morrison not see some small businesses are close to going under?

    I think by now the suggestion the Liberals are the party of small business is as big a lie as saying the Nationals care about farmers. One cares only about big business; the other only about mining companies.

    Labor should frame this whole issue with a single question;
    who should we trust? The Auditor General or the Liberal party?
    It’s a simple but deadly question.

  7. A competent government would budget to repeat some aspects on employment, activity and travel in a years time after covid vaccinations and hopefully lockdowns are ended.

    Or simply postpone the Census by a year.

  8. I’ve got the best idea for quarantine facilities. Michael Sukkar has provide a brochure full of potential sites.



    He’d be amazing if he actually built useful stuff instead of useless pork barrelling.

  11. ‘lizzie 1 at 8:06 am

    This just seems to be restriction for its own sake. It is also extremely expensive as well as cruel

    It does seem pointless but I think it is a cunning plan to reduce the waiting list for people wanting to return. People will put off a return if they think they will have difficulties ‘escaping’ .

  12. UK Cartoons:
    Steve Bell on claims around Tory party fundraising

    Andy Davey on #GrantShapps #TravelRestrictions #CovidRestrictions

    Dave Brown’s @Independent cartoon, with huge apologies to #RoyOrbison… #SteveBaker #BrexitFiasco #ERG #CRG #BrexitReality

    Pocket cartoonists have been invited for the first time to the launch dinner for Britain’s Best Political Cartoons. Cartoon courtesy of Patrick Blower.

    Steven Camley on #BorisJohnson snubbing #NicolaSturgeon #Boots

    Christian Adams on #BorisJohnson #skateboarding #SkyBrown

    PAUL THOMAS on Meghan’s 40th birthday

    Peter Schrank on #BorisJohnson #NicolaSturgeon

  13. Victoria has been in and out of lockdown since late May. I am getting very frustrated about it all.
    We didn’t even get to release many of the restrictions before getting hit again.
    Made some plans for the weekend yesterday that are now out the window.
    I can appreciate how difficult small business owners like our dog groomer are finding it.

    We are booked to travel to Tassie at the end of Sept. I am getting nervous about that now, but still really want to go. I have not seen my friend there for several years now.

  14. citizens at 9:15 am

    And Michelle Grattan thinks we will need an inquiry to learn from rollout mistakes

    Over the years Grattan has been generally more sympathetic to the LNP than Labor. However the Morrison government has been so corrupt and incompetent that she really has no alternative than to take them to task

    Michelle would be scrutinising the LNP far harder this time because she would be in a high risk demographic when it comes to dying and serious illness from Covid. A wrinkle on what some chappie said a long time ago.

    “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”

  15. Houston says he’s “shocked” about the charge laid against him and will defend it but omitted the word “vigorously”, asking for the presumption of innocence.
    _______________________________

    Even though this is a Morgan poll, it’s nevertheless more confirmation that Morrison is on the nose. Looking forward to further confirmation from Newspoll.

  16. This seems to place Australian citizens on the same level as non-citizens.

    It’s basically saying that an Australian citizen requires a visa to enter Australia.

    The federal government has banned Australians who normally live in other countries from returning home without needing government permission in a move branded as “barbaric”. Latika Bourke reports on some of the reactions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-says-it-will-lock-in-returning-citizens-who-permanently-live-abroad-20210805-p58gb9.html

  17. laughtong @ #55 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 9:24 am

    Victoria has been in and out of lockdown since late May. I am getting very frustrated about it all.
    We didn’t even get to release many of the restrictions before getting hit again.
    Made some plans for the weekend yesterday that are now out the window.
    I can appreciate how difficult small business owners like our dog groomer are finding it.

    We are booked to travel to Tassie at the end of Sept. I am getting nervous about that now, but still really want to go. I have not seen my friend there for several years now.

    My Airbnb bookings for August went from booked out to cancelled out.
    Last reservation from VIC cancelled last night.
    Total of $3,000 income out the window.

  18. Re Mundo on list of questions from Socrates There’s enough to keep the LNP in opposition for a generation.

    Truthful answers, that would be unobtainable without a Royal Commission, would reveal a web of lies, patronage, corruption and incompetence that would dwarf anything seen in recent decades.

  19. ”
    Police have arrested 15 people after hundreds of protesters rallied in Melbourne’s CBD against Victoria’s sixth coronavirus lockdown, which was announced hours earlier by the premier, Daniel Andrews.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/05/victoria-covid-update-snap-lockdown-being-considered-after-eight-new-cases-recorded
    ”

    Gladys, why don’t you learn from Andrews about lockdows. Victoria has 6 cases. Bam , whole state goes into lockdown ensuring whole state suffers.
    Whereas you start with a ‘stay at home’ order dividing King St, Newtown, Sydney. Then lockdown 3 LSAs, then 2 more, then 3 more as cases keep increasing. Finally 5 LSAs in Hunter region
    But you refuse toickdown North Shore, Eastern Suburbs and Northern beachesand NW Sydney to suffer as they are sti on ‘stay at home ‘ orders or atleas t that is what I think.

  20. laughtong

    There comes a point when dog grooming/bathing becomes a health necessity, both for owner and dog.
    Don’t I remember there was some concession previously for that? Perhaps it was only in the longest Vic lockdown.

  21. Steve777 @ #60 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 9:29 am

    Re Mundo on list of questions from Socrates There’s enough to keep the LNP in opposition for a generation.

    Truthful answers, that would be unobtainable without a Royal Commission, would reveal a web of lies, patronage, corruption and incompetence that would dwarf anything seen in recent decades.

    Labor could effectively spend their first term dismantling every positive perception voters have ever had in relation to the LNP.
    One RC at a time.

  22. Steve777, what makes you think that the answers given to any Royal commission will be truthful.
    DPP’s seem remarkably reluctant to charge obvious liars with perjury.

  23. Had coffee yesterday with a friend whose family is well connected to the Vic Liberal party. She’s fairly apolitical but always votes Liberal (so a typical Liberal voter really). She expressed unbridled loathing towards Gladys. I asked if she knew anyone that had some sympathy for Gladys, she said “no-one”.
    I’m not surprised at the 59.5 2pp in Vic.

    As a side note, the cafe owner announced the rumours of lockdown while we were there, she looked exhausted and close to tears.

  24. Laughtong

    I reckon the whole globe is over this pandemic.
    And mind you we are still faring better than other countries despite not enough of us being vaccinated as yet.
    It still baffles me how a miracle of science in getting vaccines sooner than later, is still an issue for so many millions of people.
    The cognitive dissonance is astounding.

  26. Poroti @9.19

    At risk of stirring the possum…

    What about those who wish to permanently leave Aus ?

    That was my point weeks ago.

    Seems unfair to change the goalposts as when coming to this country , it was on the understanding that we are free to return home.

  27. ”
    BKsays:
    Friday, August 6, 2021 at 8:09 am
    First question to Gladys this morning should be, “Was it a wise thing to do for Victoria to go into an immediate lockdown after only eight new cases?”
    ”
    Does it matter? The reply wi be vaccine this and vaccine that’

  29. Ven

    GladysB is correct insofar that we need to have a majority of people vaccinated until we can ease restrictions.

    But has she told NSW public in no uncertain terms that this is going to take months?

  30. The AAT decision in Patrick vs Secretary of PM&C re releasing National ‘Cabinet’ documents is a good read for those interested in the history of Cabinet processes.

    I hope this gets appealed to the HC, so we get more scrutiny of #FastAndLooseScotty ™ – the FOI exemptions for Cabinet documents do not apply to a collection of people you decide to call a ‘Committee of Cabinet’.

    In short, you can’t just make up shit.

    http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/AATA//2021/2719.html

  31. Player One

    The impending collapse of the Gulf Stream was forecast yonks ago, when there was still huge denial about global warming. Just another on the list of “Oh well, we’ll worry about that when it happens.” Clouds of despair rise from the scientists every day.

  33. Work to Rule

    The Victorian liberals have been absolutely useless in every way throughout this whole pandemic.

    And of course, Morrison,Frydenberg, Hunt and the rest of them have been horrible to Victoria as well over the duration.

    The only reason for the change in tune by them is the shit show that is now NSW.

    Victorians should have nothing but contempt for the lot of them.

  34. lizzie @ #70 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 9:33 am

    laughtong

    There comes a point when dog grooming/bathing becomes a health necessity, both for owner and dog.
    Don’t I remember there was some concession previously for that? Perhaps it was only in the longest Vic lockdown.

    It was in the big Vic lockdown and they were given a concession to open. My little man was not too bad but really needed quite a lot off by the time we could get him done.
    He was due on Tuesday coming so hope the groomer can fit him in quickly once the restrictions lift again.
    We could probably wash him at home, but no way have I got the skills to trim his coat or nails.

  35. Chris O’Keefe
    @cokeefe9
    ·
    18m
    Hearing Year 12 will not go back in 8 “hot spot” LGA’s on August 16 as planned. Schools being asked to conduct trial exams at home.
    @9NewsAUS

  37. I don’t watch/listen to the ABC, but this doesn’t surprise me.

    “NOT a Canberra Bubbler@MSMWatchdog2013 · 9m
    Geezuz H. Christ. @abcnews just interviewed a disgruntled anti lockdown wedding planner from Melbourne who supports the fuckwit freedumb protestors from last night.
    Why aren’t there ever any disgruntled fuckwits from Sydney ever interviewed?
    Unfuckenbelievable gobshite.”
    “Jenny Frecklington-Jones@JonesHowdareyou · 7m
    Longstanding @abcnews tradition now. Sadly. I did see some Sydney business owners on ABC News back in June I think who were happy about going into lockdown and thought it was the smart thing to do. So there’s that. #auspol #COVID19vic #ABCFAIL”

  38. Victoria @ #74 Friday, August 6th, 2021 – 7:39 am

    Laughtong

    I reckon the whole globe is over this pandemic.
    And mind you we are still faring better than other countries despite not enough of us being vaccinated as yet.
    It still baffles me how a miracle of science in getting vaccines sooner than later, is still an issue for so many millions of people.
    The cognitive dissonance is astounding.

    Because the world is very much bigger than Australia.

    Australia has been basically untouched by the pandemic until now. Gladys does seem to be trying to change that dynamic.

    Australia’s battles so far have been to keep the virus out whereas most of the rest of the world still battles to try and control it.

    Your bafflement is quite baffling considering vaccines are required for many billions of people around the world many of whom are exposed to the virus on a regular basis.

    These are the places where new strains will develop, any one of which could make any previous vaccination redundant.

    Morrison is talking about an end and return to “normal.”

    That is not going to be possible until the pandemic is dealt with at a global level.

    Any attempt to do so before this is just exposing Australia to what most of the world as been through for the last 18 months.

    You really don’t want to actually experience this pandemic. It’s not nice.

  41. An Olympic first.
    Mens shotput podium 2016

    Joe Kovacs (L), Ryan Crouser (C) and Tom Walsh R) on the podium at the 2016
    Mens Shotput podium 2021

    Joe Kovacs (L), Ryan Crouser (C) and Tom Walsh (R) celebrate their medals in Tokyo.

  42. Q: Census……It is going to wreck a lot of long term data series

    So true- and international traveller numbers, international student numbers, Australians that would be overseas etc will all be missing from the Census numbers.

  43. Some media commentary that when/ if we get vaccinated and covid becomes a thing of the past prior to the election, Scummos popularity will bounce back.
    I guess their logic is that despite his behaviour during bushfires, voters moved on and the same will happen again.
    IMO the big flaw in this thinking is that while we were all sympathetic to the plight of those affected, we were sympathizing from afar.
    Covid is a whole new ball game.
    Nearly everyone in Oz is directly affected and if this continues to drag out to say the end of the year I dont think voters will forget by May 2022.

  44. I was talking last night with a colleague, late 20s, who has just returned to work having recovered from COVID.

    He was describing the symptoms he experienced and I was struck by how similar many were to the initial effects of moving to high altitude.

    The shortness of breath, unable to move quickly for more than the briefest time, waking up in the night felling like you were suffocating because you were sleeping in the wrong position and your lungs couldn’t fully expand.

    At least the effects of altitude passed in a day or so.

  45. ”
    Soharsays:
    Friday, August 6, 2021 at 10:00 am
    I don’t watch/listen to the ABC, but this doesn’t surprise me.

    “NOT a Canberra Bubbler@MSMWatchdog2013 · 9m
    Geezuz H. Christ. @abcnews just interviewed a disgruntled anti lockdown wedding planner from Melbourne who supports the fuckwit freedumb protestors from last night.
    Why aren’t there ever any disgruntled fuckwits from Sydney ever interviewed?
    ”

    Could be Because Victoria is in 6th lockdown?

  50. I had a conversation with an expat in the PI this morning. New drastic lockdown. Delta cutting a swathe. They are jabbing 600,000 a day in the PI despite its humungous infrastructure and organizational problems. This puts Duterte well ahead of Morrison.
    Sinovacc not quite useless against Delta, so still worth taking if you can get nothing else.
    Kids have pretty well missed a year and a half of school.
    Knows Oz citizen peeps who have been in and out of Australia three times since Covid began.
    The thing to remember with the expats who are demanding entry and exit at will and screaming blue murder if they are thwarted is that they are putting their personal interests over their national interest. They are extremely often potential vectors from locations with sky high rates of Covid infections.
    And since many of them are dual citizens you might well ask just exactly what THEIR national interest might be.

Comments Page 2 of 36
1 2 3 … 36

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *