Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor scores its biggest two-party poll lead of the term from Roy Morgan, which records a particularly big blowout in Victoria.

Roy Morgan published results on Wednesday of its latest federal voting intention polling, as it does from time to time, in this case combining surveys conducted over the past two weekends from 2709 respondents. This shows Labor with its biggest lead of the term, from this or any other pollster: 53.5-46.5, out from 52.5-47.5 in the poll it published in mid-July. The Coalition and Labor are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively being down two and steady, while the Greens are up a point to 12.5% and One Nation is steady on 3%. These numbers have ticked the BludgerTrack poll aggregate a further 0.4% to Labor, who are now credited with a lead 52.4-47.6.

State breakdowns of the two-party vote are provided, showing Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (for a swing in their favour of about 3% compared with the 2019 election), 59.5-40.5 in Victoria (a swing of about 6.5%, and three points stronger for Labor than the previous poll), 55.5-44.5 in South Australia (a swing of about 5%) and 54-46 in Tasmania (a 2% swing to the Liberals, although the sample size here is particularly flimsy), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%) and 51.5-48.5 in Western Australia (a swing of about 4%, which is a fair bit more modest than other polling from WA recently).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,778 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Morrison’s ratings slump to Delta low
    Scott Morrison’s approval ratings have plunged into negative territory and his government faces its worst electoral position since the Black Summer fires.

  2. C@t,

    I am also intrigued that COVID seems to have suddenly disappeared from he beachside suburbs.

    Salty sea spray from the windy weather we had last week dessicating the virus?

    Ohh – very interesting hypothesis.

    When I can find the time I intend to correlate the daily rates of new cases with the temperature and precipitable water vapour. Definitely need to include the wind speed (and direction?) in that.

    It may or may lead to associations between variables, but a very good place to start looking for possible causation, and testable hypotheses.

  3. Newspoll: Delta debacle drives Scott Morrison’s ratings to new low
    The once-strong support for Scott Morrison’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has almost halved over the course of a year. Picture: Gary Ramage
    The once-strong support for Scott Morrison’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has almost halved over the course of a year. Picture: Gary Ramage

    Scott Morrison’s personal approval ratings have plunged into negative territory and the government faces its worst electoral position since the Black Summer fires amid growing frustration over the vaccine rollout and lockdowns across the three most populous states.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian also shows a further erosion of confidence in the federal government’s management of the pandemic as the NSW, Victoria and Queensland state governments battle to stem the spread of the Delta Covid-19 variant.

    The once-strong support for Mr Morrison’s handling of the crisis has almost halved over the course of a year from a high of 85 per cent in April last year, during the peak of the first wave, to just 48 per cent in the latest survey.

    And for the first time, more people – 49 per cent – claim to be unhappy with the Prime Minister’s management of the pandemic, with clear divisions now established among voters along party lines.

    Confidence in the administration of the vaccine rollout also continues to fall despite the release last week of a four-step plan linking vaccination rates to the reopening of the country.

    Popular support for the federal Coalition and Labor remains deadlocked at 39 per cent with no movement in the headline numbers for the major parties since the last poll was conducted three weeks ago.

    READ MORE:Benson: PM must carry on|Newman targets PM’s ‘failure’ in Senate tilt|Our long list of Defence duds|Time to lead, Mr Morrison|Morrison deflects queries on ‘slush fund seats’|PM seeks national framework on women
    The two-party-preferred split of 53-47 per cent, in Labor’s favour, also remains unchanged as the government faces its worst electoral position since the bushfire crisis of summer 2020.

    With almost half the population now under some form of state government-imposed social restriction or lockdown, satisfaction with the Prime Minister’s performance has fallen into net negative territory for the first time.

    The latest poll shows a four-point fall in the number of voters satisfied with Mr Morrison’s performance. This is the second such fall over the course of the past month leaving him with an approval rating of 47 per cent.

    The number of those claiming to be dissatisfied with his overall performance as leader has risen by the same level – to 49 per cent, leaving the Prime Minister with a net approval rating of minus two.

    It is the first time since March 2020 that Mr Morrison has found his personal support falling into negative territory.

    It represents a significant shift in sentiment since last year and at the peak of the pandemic, when Mr Morrison enjoyed an approval rating of more than plus-40 per cent.

    Mr Morrison still enjoys a lead over Labor leader Anthony Albanese, who last week offered to pay people $300 to get vaccinated, and whose net negative approval rating of minus eight remains unchanged at 38 per cent satisfied and 46 per cent dissatisfied.

    Mr Morrison also maintains a clear advantage over his rival as preferred prime minister, although the gap on this metric has narrowed further to its closest margin since the last election.

    Mr Morrison dropped two points to 49 per cent while Mr Albanese picked up three points to 36 per cent.

    With the three major states locking down their capitals, the first time this has happened since the first wave of the pandemic in April 2020, confidence in Mr Morrison’s handling of the crisis more broadly has hit its lowest point with a four-point fall to 48 per cent in the space of three weeks among those still maintaining he was managing it well.

    This was split heavily along party lines, with 74 per cent of Coalition voters claiming Mr Morrison was managing it well compared to 31 per cent of Labor voters and 26 per cent of Greens voters.

    Younger voters were also the least satisfied at 42 per cent compared to 56 per cent of older Australians.

    Backbiting from the NSW government over vaccine supply and mixed messages over the use of AstraZeneca has seen support for Mr Morrison’s management of the rollout fall a further two points over the past three weeks to 38 per cent with a two-point rise to 59 per cent of those who claim to be dissatisfied in the rollout.

    This marks a gradual decline in favourability since the question was first asked in April, at which point the split was 53-43 and the majority were in support of the government.

    The Newspoll, conducted between August 4 and 7, shows the Greens improving a point to 11 per cent while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation remains on 3 per cent.

    Support for other minor parties fell a point to 8 per cent. The Newspoll was based on surveys of 1527 voters across metropolitan and regional areas.

  4. Student vax booking system glitches rife
    The Berejiklian government’s vaccination drive for Year 12 students in hotspot areas is being derailed by booking system glitches and last-minute transport disruptions, sparking concerns the mass immunisation of 24,000 students could take much longer than the six days scheduled.

    Another Liberal fuckup

  5. Sceptic at 9:35 pm
    Gladys would be getting lined up. Sydney outbreak has to be all her fault otherwise Scotty’s lax vax effort may see him blamed.

  6. Griff

    poroti, C@tmomma and D&M,

    The article in the NZ Herald, originally published in the UK Telegraph, could have been better.

    The review that the majority of the article is based on, remains at preprint status do far as I am aware:

    If you would like to know what others in the scientific community think of this manuscript, please read the reviewer comments (and the reader comments as well). All unfavourable. I am not sure how the authors will be able to retrieve it, but perhaps they can.

    It is a very challenging issue. A lot of reputations are on the line, including the WHO, for initially denying airborne transmission of COVID-19. The WHO, who funded the review.

    If need be, I can argue against the rest of the evidence/learned opinions in the newspaper article. Also problematic e.g. the opinion that the R is too low for COVID-19 be airborne is….surprising. Tuberculosis is widely considered to be airborne (now) and has a lower R than COVID-19.

    Here is something that I found interesting to read recently. A nice essay on how the thinking of airborne transmission of infectious pathogens has evolved over the ages:

    Thanks for this.

    Is there a “grey area between “airborne” and “Droplet”?

    If it is a continuum, then I would expect both modes to be important depending on circumstances.

  7. sprocket

    I’m referring to real world efficacy data for the UK for AstraZeneca versus the Delta variant. Some quote it as 60% and not 67%.

  8. rhwombat

    “Excellent summary, but (necessarily) based on two assumptions which I don’t think we can assume: (1) that the vaccines used reduce shedding/transmission in populations as efficiently as they produce antibody responses in individuals & (2) that the aggregated population risk reflects the risk in all sub-populations. Neither are likely with Delta in Sydney at present. Any real vaccine effect will take > months to be evident, even if they actually do have a significant effect on a population level – which I don’t think has been demonstrated in any population yet. Vaccines help, but are not the answer that our political class wish. It’s personal protection, snap lockdowns, public funding of people not profits and real ITTQ for as far as my eye can see.”

    The assumption that a vaccine reduces retransmission at the same rate as it prevents symptomatic infection is a pretty loose one, but its the best I can use in the absence of something better.

    When do we get real world data (at least inferential) on actual reduction on retransmission? And the other problem here is, what the the heck did the Doherty people use for this (presumably vital) factor? I can’t see them having enough overseas data to get a proper handle on this anyhow.

    As for sub-populations. My hope is that the biggest spreaders – the 20s and 30s – can be encouraged to vaccinate at an even higher rate and this of course would benefit the population as a whole. And of course this is the age group that would also be most easily persuaded to vaccinate by the simple expedient of no-vax equals no access to social venues.

    Agree with your other points.

  9. Griff, D&M

    Its a huge grey area. There is a continuous distribution of droplet size being expelled by breathing. I have first hand knowledge of this having dealt with air filtration systems (industrial scale). The key principle is whether a particle (or droplet) is primarily influenced by gravity or whether the Brownian (random) motion of the air dominates as a force.

    Virologists got hung up about there being a dividing line around 5 microns. But in Engineering, there are particles that are measured in the tens of microns range that in still air can hang around for lengthy periods (tens of seconds or more).

    As far as I’m concerned if it can carry a covid virus (sub-micron) then it can be infectious. The complicated bit is that bigger droplets have larger volume and thus dominate in terms of overall numbers of viruses. But then often larger droplets (tens of microns) can evaporate quickly to form smaller droplets (presumably then with a concentrated payload.

    The evidence for covid hanging around in the air and travelling over room-sized distances and then infecting people is overwhelming. Infection by surface contact is possible, but it can’t be absorbed through the skin – you have to then touch mucosa.

    The determination of some to reject aerosol spread reminds me of the incident a while ago in New Zealand where the transfer was between two people who were never in the same room at the same time. But they did have CCTV footage and finally decided the transfer was via a lift button. But, it could have just as easily have been by aerosol hanging around in a very confined space (a lift). Its not impossible it was via contact, but the fact that aerosol spread was rejected says more about bias, doesn’t it? After all we’ve since seen multiple instances of spread via hotel room doors and corridors.

    One other point. The heavier we breathe, the more likely we are to bring up finer droplets generated deeper in the lungs. That’s why this form of activity is more dangerous. Its another reason why social venues should be vaccinated people only.

  10. “The key principle is whether a particle (or droplet) is primarily influenced by gravity or whether the Brownian (random) motion of the air dominates as a force”

    Yes. There seems to be an academic argument inhibiting rational assessment and then the message is translated into a rule for the plebs. I’d like them to be honest. The virus can spread in water* droplets of any size larger than the virus. So we need to reduce the likelihood of infection by doing masks, etc etc.

    I think of blowing a soap bubble. On a cold damp day, outside they can easily fly 20m, but the number of bubbles left in what is then a big space is very few. Try hitting some mates with bubbles outside even in optimal conditions.

    Inside a lift you could hit everybody with a bubble even if the aircon was down and it was 35C.

    * anything other than water ???

  11. Morrison’s presser talking about Afghanistan.
    I lasted about 60 seconds. He is doing his ‘we will decide who comes to Australia’ bullshit.

    I am almost shaking with rage.

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