Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor scores its biggest two-party poll lead of the term from Roy Morgan, which records a particularly big blowout in Victoria.

Roy Morgan published results on Wednesday of its latest federal voting intention polling, as it does from time to time, in this case combining surveys conducted over the past two weekends from 2709 respondents. This shows Labor with its biggest lead of the term, from this or any other pollster: 53.5-46.5, out from 52.5-47.5 in the poll it published in mid-July. The Coalition and Labor are tied at 37% on the primary vote, respectively being down two and steady, while the Greens are up a point to 12.5% and One Nation is steady on 3%. These numbers have ticked the BludgerTrack poll aggregate a further 0.4% to Labor, who are now credited with a lead 52.4-47.6.

State breakdowns of the two-party vote are provided, showing Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (for a swing in their favour of about 3% compared with the 2019 election), 59.5-40.5 in Victoria (a swing of about 6.5%, and three points stronger for Labor than the previous poll), 55.5-44.5 in South Australia (a swing of about 5%) and 54-46 in Tasmania (a 2% swing to the Liberals, although the sample size here is particularly flimsy), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%) and 51.5-48.5 in Western Australia (a swing of about 4%, which is a fair bit more modest than other polling from WA recently).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,778 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  5. I am looking forward to yet another Memorial Day.
    Opening the Burma Railroad Memorial Day.
    The date will be 17 October 1943.
    This Japanese Civil Construction Project cost approximately the same number of lives as the bombing of Hiroshima. Those who survived the experience nearly all had lingering impacts on their physical and mental health and, on average, died younger than their peers
    Starvation, malnutrition, torture, decapitations, beatings, lack of the most basic medical treatments… you all ‘know’ the bestiality that was the OH&S norm.
    Maybe Hiroshima Day and Burma Railroad Day could be held on the same day?

  6. What a fucking arsehole. Let the misrepresentation of ‘history’ begin and what better place to kick it off than a Rupert Murdoch Shit Sheet.
    .

    Dr Coatsworth said he regretted underestimating the influence of zero-COVID advocates in the academy, whose commentary has shaped the discourse on COVID-19 management in Australia.

    “We always took the view in government, myself included, that this was a small group of people who didn’t have that much influence,………….“There’s a very strong network in Australian academia that is pro COVID-zero,” he said. “There’s some very influential policy people, particularly down in Victoria, who have that particular view.
    “We always took the view in government, myself included, that this was a small group of people who didn’t have that much influence, ……………,” Dr Coatsworth told The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/public-health-leaders-regret-failure-to-rebuke-anti-vaxxers-zero-covid-advocates-20210806-p58gmf.html

  7. C@

    I haven’t been using local building prices as a guide.

    (We built our own homes. Hubby had absolutely no building experience – hadn’t even built a dog kennel).

    Another alternative is acting as your own construction manager – you don’t do any of the actual building , but you do the contracting.

  9. ”
    Bushfire Billsays:
    Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 9:19 am
    Oh… so now it’s a tailored lockdown.
    ”

    No it is ‘Taylormade for criticism’ lockdown. 🙂

  15. zoomster,
    Your husband may be capable of that, my son and I aren’t.

    Look, the facts of the matter are this for my son:
    * He needs to limit his expenditure to $950000 to get government incentives.
    * He can get a loan for $1 million
    * Land around here is ~ $850000 per standard block
    * Put a Tiny House on the land at $39K and get it plumbed, and he’s got a home. Where he wants to live, near his mates and work.
    * That’s how he has decided to do it. End of.

  17. poroti @ #1453 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:01 am

    What a fucking arsehole. Let the misrepresentation of ‘history’ begin and what better place to kick it off than a Rupert Murdoch Shit Sheet.
    .

    Dr Coatsworth said he regretted underestimating the influence of zero-COVID advocates in the academy, whose commentary has shaped the discourse on COVID-19 management in Australia.

    “There’s a very strong network in Australian academia that is pro COVID-zero,” he said. “There’s some very influential policy people, particularly down in Victoria, who have that particular view.
    “We always took the view in government, myself included, that this was a small group of people who didn’t have that much influence, ……………,” Dr Coatsworth told The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/public-health-leaders-regret-failure-to-rebuke-anti-vaxxers-zero-covid-advocates-20210806-p58gmf.html

    Sounding more and more like a Liberal politician every day.

  20. Prof Doherty dealing with an anti-vaxxer.

    Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    ·
    5m
    It’s not the spike from the vaccine that damages your body organs, cause blood clots, strokes & heart attacks, it’s the spike from the virus. Every infected cell makes more virus copies that go on to infect other cells. Vaccine induce antibodies stop that. Think this through

  21. Socratessays:
    Sunday, August 8, 2021 at 9:08 am
    Steve
    “ Front page of the Daily Rupert (Sydney paper edition): 100% Olympics (no link).”

    Two days from now the Olympics will be over and there will be little else to report except the covid numbers. They won’t be getting better any time soon in NSW.

    What will they report then? IPCC6 is out on Monday. No, not that either. Newscorp and the Liberal Party will be praying for an earthquake somewhere.

    Well it seems the wilful silence and ignorance around climate matters will be bipartisan in Australia.
    Lest anyone be reminded at how shit Australia’s effort is on a bipartisan basis, you know more coal, gas and fracking from the state and federal Labor/Lib governments going forward.
    Seems pretty demonstrable how much the PB clique have been avoiding the discussion for weeks

    There are plenty of major disasters current and just happened, but they almost all reinforce the shit heading the world’s way from the climate crisis, you know heatwaves, drought, fires across the Americas, Europe and Siberia, unprecedented and massively damaging floods across Europe and Asia.

    Nothing to see here

    Too hard to do or say anything more for Labor, even as the world turns to Australia and says WTF, why are you boosting for China, Russia, Brasil and Saudi instead of joining most of the educated, democratic and developed nations and trying to push for more action?

    I know, those fossil fuel donations are really important to keeping the Lib and Lab parties alive

    Since 1992 Australia has been gaslighting the world on carbon reduction, the bludgers for all the tickets many seem to have on themselves, appear to be just part of the same conga line, refusing to talk about it

    DOUBLE GAME – How Australian diplomacy protects fossil fuels
    https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game

    Richard Denniss & Allan Behm on ‘How Australia undermines global climate action’
    Successive Australian governments have been adamant that they accept the science of climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Australian representatives even voiced their frustration at being excluded from the High Ambition Coalition formed at the COP21. But Australia’s actions in a wide range of multilateral forums, combined with the shape and size of Australia’s domestic energy investment, suggest that it has other motives.

    Statement from the Climate Council and many other civil society organisation that didn’t seem to get any mention or attention either

    Moving on from a loud argument about a distant target

    The political debate about climate change in Australia is stuck on whether the Federal Government should commit to net zero climate pollution by 2050. This is largely irrelevant to the real world climate crisis that’s harming Australians now, and endangering many of our livelihoods. The scientific consensus is that a rapid reduction in climate pollution is required by 2030 to avoid even more climate damage and keep the global 1.5 degree goal within reach.

    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/australia-must-slash-climate-pollution-this-decade/

  22. Building and renovating costs mount up. This is even if you do all the work yourself.

    For eg. My daughters abode which is only a 3 bedroom, one bath, living area.

    Bathroom and kitchen have been untouched.

    Work done consisted of Painting and repairs. new small half wall, electrical, new flooring etc., all done free of Labour costs due to family doing all the work.

    Cost of materials approx 15,0000. If labour costs to be added. Just double it to 30,000.

    This is to illustrate just how far the dollar stretches.
    Not far at all. Lol!

  23. The Insiders
    David Speers intro for 10 minutes
    Interview with Greg Hunt 20 minutes
    Panelists speak 15 minutes
    Bridget Brennan 10 minutes
    Talking with pictures 5 minutes
    final thoughts 2 minutes

    Why would you bother being a panelist on the David Speers showcase

  24. And, as I said before, it’s the cost of land which is the deciding factor in these matters, not the cost of the build.

    Which is why tiny houses aren’t a solution to homelessness.

  25. That NSW is planning to let tradies out from the lockdown LCAs consequent on vaccination history

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-07/nsw-reopen-worksites-for-construction-covid-vaccinations/100359114

    is not without its problems (bleedingly obvious I know). Barilaro is behind it. He might be on deck this morning to give Gladys some extra wiggle room.

    Not the least is vaccine verification. Is this sorted, standardised? Room for fraud?, much?

    And …… vaccines have a big impact on hospitalisation, and deaths, but not so on transmissibility in a rudely under vaccinated population. Playing with Delta (and its offspring) fire methinks.

  26. Joe O’Brien
    @JoeABCNews
    ·
    1m
    CAIRNS COVID
    “There is a real risk this could have already spread,” says Qld Chf Health Officer, about the detection of a positive case in Cairns.
    He’s a taxi driver who’s been in the community infectious for 10 days.

  27. Well, good news for S-E Queensland, providing evidence again that sharp, short lockdowns work. I do hope NSW numbers will be in decline but doubt it.

  32. Zoomster

    Land is costly. But so is building.

    I have illustrated the Reno Costs for my daughter.

    My son on the other hand, did a major renovation a few years back.

    Together with his father they contracted the work they could not do themselves. They sourced materials and were very thoughtful in everything they did.
    The Reno Costs still mounted up quite quickly.

    Having said that, all the hard work has paid off.
    It’s a lovely comfortable home.

  34. zoomster @ #1471 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:17 am

    And, as I said before, it’s the cost of land which is the deciding factor in these matters, not the cost of the build.

    Which is why tiny houses aren’t a solution to homelessness.

    And I’m on the NSW Labor Homelessness Action Committee and it’s not a solution we have entertained either.

    Private citizens of a youngish age looking to get into the housing market, different kettle of affordable fish.

  35. Patty Mills – always delivers for Australia – puts wealth into worthy causes.
    Greg Norman – definition of choking, bragged about his wealth, philandered but does have respectable abs.

    Second daughter has raised possibility of marrying Mattise Thybulle. He just needs to make an appointment for approval.

  36. lizzie @ #1473 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:20 am

    Joe O’Brien
    @JoeABCNews
    ·
    1m
    CAIRNS COVID
    “There is a real risk this could have already spread,” says Qld Chf Health Officer, about the detection of a positive case in Cairns.
    He’s a taxi driver who’s been in the community infectious for 10 days.

    I’ve been dreading something like that. 🙁

  37. It’s been bad in Greece and Turkey, as we know, as well as Nth America. We have another summer ahead. Lockdowns and Bushfires aren’t a good combo.

    “I am very attached to this house,” said Rizos, an avid marathon runner, recounting the drama, which took place after four sleepless nights. “I hid when the order arrived to evacuate and when the fire came, it came like a typhoon, raining gold everywhere. I was there, alone and very frightened but I had also taken every measure. I had cleared the garden, removed pine cones. The typhoon lasted for about four minutes but the grass outside and the tree tops were wet enough for the fire to pass over.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/apocalyptic-scenes-hit-greece-as-athens-besieged-by-fire

  38. Shellbell @ #1482 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:28 am

    Patty Mills – always delivers for Australia – puts wealth into worthy causes.
    Greg Norman – definition of choking, bragged about his wealth, philandered but does have respectable abs.

    Second daughter has raised possibility of marrying Mattise Thybulle. He just needs to make an appointment for approval.

    As a person of limited height, if I had a daughter I’d be looking at the Sudanese basketballer for her. 😉

  39. C@tmomma @ #1486 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:28 am

    lizzie @ #1473 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:20 am

    Joe O’Brien
    @JoeABCNews
    ·
    1m
    CAIRNS COVID
    “There is a real risk this could have already spread,” says Qld Chf Health Officer, about the detection of a positive case in Cairns.
    He’s a taxi driver who’s been in the community infectious for 10 days.

    I’ve been dreading something like that. 🙁

    Said it before, say it again. All taxis/hire cars should have perspex separation barrier thingys. They were (past tense) in vogue in Sydney some years ago after some driver assaults, when either they or in cab cameras became compulsory.

  40. Laura Jayes
    @ljayes
    ·
    39m
    The NSW Health Minister yesterday said 50% of people in NSW had received at least one vaccine dose.

    Which according to the Government’s figures is not correct.

    It’s only 45.46%

  41. Letting vaccinated people become mobile is simply providing a vector with an unknown transmissibility factor. As previously mentioned, the Doherty modelling has used an assumption of 65% effectiveness of both AZ and Pfizer vaccines at reducing onward transmission. This is based on evidence of passive surveillance data out of UK with no breakdown of the variants i.e. non-Delta specific data.

    Courageous.

  44. Exactly what julia Zemiro said:


    Julia Zemiro
    @julia_zemiro

    Why does David Speers giggle through the car park rorts question ? Why is it funny?
    Stop making it light, and unimportant and forgivable. #insiders

  45. zoomster @ #1457 Sunday, August 8th, 2021 – 10:02 am

    C@

    I haven’t been using local building prices as a guide.

    (We built our own homes. Hubby had absolutely no building experience – hadn’t even built a dog kennel).

    Another alternative is acting as your own construction manager – you don’t do any of the actual building , but you do the contracting.

    I am owner-building a 45 sq m ‘granny flat’ extension right now, on the NSW Central Coast, about 25 km NNE from @cat. Tradesmen start at $550 per day, minimum, and are very hard to track down. I will reach lockup tomorrow.

    Steel frame, Hardies Heritage cladding, concrete tiles to match existing.

    It will cost around $65,000. I have used second hand or ‘excess to requirements’ materials off Facebook Marketplace, Ebay and Gumtree wherever I could find them, and saved at least $6,000 on materials so far. Quotes from builders for the whole job ranged from $102,000 to $118,000.

  46. Part of a FitzSimons’ interview with NSW Police Minister Elliott:

    [‘Elliott: His church is in my electorate. I had one of his parishioners in my office who had lost his 12-year-old niece to suicide due to strains of lockdown, and his pastor, Brian Houston, was nowhere to be seen. He was in Mexico! And at that time, I didn’t know that the local constabulary were putting a brief together to charge him with allegedly concealing child abuse. Beyond that, last year, he had to go overseas and he wanted preferential treatment for quarantine, to go into a five-star suite. We arranged it – despite the fact that the Pope, President Biden and Foreign Minister Marise Payne can do most of their foreign work remotely, and he is just a suburban preacher – and then he criticised our COVID policy! He’s an ungrateful twat!’] – SMH

    Correct. And it’s good to see we have an extradition treaty with Mexico – just in case it’s needed. There’s a lot to dislike about Pastor Houston, but apparently, Morrison still thinks the sun shines out of his arse.

  47. Have been involved basketball since the 80’s, we are very very very lucky to have Patty Mills as our leader for the national team. Great to see Andrew Gaze talk about history and what it means to him.

    Love how he articulates what country means to him and this educates those out there. The pic of the Australian team with the three flags is what it is about.

  50. Forgot to mention one other thing about that &!$# Live With Covid Coatsworth. He wanted us to ‘open up’ when we hit 50% vaccination. From the modelling the government was talking about the other day re 70% + 80% vax rates Coatsworth’s wish would see 4000+ dead in the first 180 days. The modelling had 2000+ for 70% and 1300 for 80% .

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