Hello Newman

An eventful weekend bequeaths Queensland a by-election result and an unexpected new Senate election candidate.

I had a piece yesterday on Campbell Newman’s break with the Liberal National Party and plans to run for the Senate in Crikey, which I believe has its paywall down for a limited time only. The upshot is that Newman’s anti-lockdown message may struggle to gain traction in a state that hasn’t had many of them; that he is unlikely to benefit the conservative cause even if he wins; and that his presence on the ballot paper could even contribute to a seat currently held by the Liberal National Party (specifically Amanda Stoker) or Pauline Hanson instead going to Labor or the Greens.

The article includes a reference to a poll conducted by Ipsos in June from a sample of 500 Queensland respondents for conservative podcast host Damian Coory, who published approval ratings for state political figures among its small sample of 173 LNP voters. Newman was credited with an approval rating of nearly 60%, substantially higher than any of his four successors as party leader, which may have encouraged him in his present course. Newman has also maintained high name recognition, with only around 20% of respondents uncommitted, compared with around 40% for Lawrence Springborg and Deb Frecklington and 60% for David Crisafulli, who replaced Frecklington after the election defeat in October.

Rightly or wrongly, some media accounts have tied Newman’s abandonment of the LNP to a crisis in the party that was laid bare by Saturday’s Stretton by-election, which delivered it an unimpressive swing of 1.6%. My live results display for the by-election continues to be updated here, if on a somewhat irregular basis. The Electoral Commission of Queensland helpfully publishes preference flows by candidate, which may be of some interest: these show that preferences of the Informed Medical Options Party broke 60-40 to the LNP, while the Greens went 82-18 to Labor and Animal Justice went 56-44.

Elsewhere, Antony Green offers his estimated new margins for the finalised federal redistribution of Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,319 comments on “Hello Newman”

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  2. Morrison’s complete f##kup of vaccine supply and quarantine which has caused so much damage to peoples livelihoods and the economy will be seen as the greatest policy failure since federation.

  4. Mavis: “Stirrer!”

    Yes, guilty as charged.

    I just get a bit bored with the prevailing debate on PB when it takes the form of (to paraphrase the Life of Brian) “How much do you hate ScoMo?” “A lot!” “Right, you’re in.”

    So I sometimes try to get a debate going about just about anything else.

  5. Bert @ #1151 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 6:25 pm

    I’ve got a radical idea for controlling Covid……STOP LETTING PEOPLE IN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES!!!!!
    Get the quarantine facilities fully built and operating then once that’s done bring our own home.
    Once that’s done then we can think about letting so called movie stars and various other excreta in but not before.
    The chances of that happening? SFA.

    I think there’s just been too many allowed to leave then come back, especially the privileged types.

  8. Player One says:
    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 6:25 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #1146 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 6:22 pm

    Even the Guardian has been forced to revise its dodgy vaccine tracker down to 7 months to completion.
    Christmas is 5 months away. So Morrison lied again?
    ____________________________________
    Probably.

    We’ll need to find cud chewer a new hobby either way – I nominate bowel cancer awareness, he could really make a difference touting the health benefits of metamucil (especially for the older skew on here)

    Best,

    Lars

  11. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 6:30 pm
    Pretty clear the Lib policy now is to ‘let it rip’ from Christmas.

    Better get your vaccination.
    ___________________
    I understand the government has booked a combined advertising and discount / subsidised holiday package of $1bn booked to start advertising early December.

  12. hazza4257says:
    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 5.43

    I wouldn’t call it pesky success. They had a very quick response and a strict lockdown (as SA always does, and VIC has adopted lately) whereas NSW had the complete opposite.
    ________________
    Adopted lately for Vic is correct. Who could ever forget Cedar Meats last year.
    So many lives lost and the damage that caused.

  13. On a more light-hearted note, I was flicking around the dial and happened upon Credlin spruiking this product of the CIS:

    https://www.cis.org.au/publications/analysis-papers/writing-matters-reversing-a-legacy-of-policy-failure-in-australian-education/

    A quick skim suggests that it is mostly the usual plea from the Right for getting the wokeness out of the school curriculum in favour of more traditional readin’, writin’ and ‘rithmetic because the current generation of schoolkids is becoming functionally illiterate, yada, yada, yada.

    However, I was struck that one of the authors (or perhaps it would be more accurate to say their parents) has had a bit of trouble with correctly spelling the name “Deirdre.”

    (And, yes, I know that the Irish language did not have a native script, so arguably there is no truly “correct” way of spelling any particular Irish name. But still…)

  14. LVT
    “We’ll need to find cud chewer a new hobby either way – I nominate bowel cancer awareness, he could really make a difference touting the health benefits of metamucil (especially for the older skew on here)”

    I don’t get it. (Not the ‘joke’, or metamucil.)

  15. Mavis: “MB comes on here, lobs a grenade pursuant to Sir Henry Shrapnel, yet doesn’t have the fortitude to argue his case.”

    I argued it persistently for several pages of the blog. How long am I supposed to go on for?

  17. Eagle eyes spot kestrel chicks in jet plane exhaust

    A pair of kestrel chicks are “lucky” to be alive after they were found nesting in a jet plane’s exhaust system.

    The birds had not eaten for several days when engineers spotted them in the Airbus A320 undergoing repairs in the Vale of Glamorgan.

    RSPCA Cymru later rescued them before they were sent to Gower Bird Hospital for rehabilitation.

    RSPCA Insp Simon Evans said: “I have no doubt they were rescued just in the nick of time.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-57992207

  19. meher baba

    How long am I supposed to go on for?

    Normally I’d say as long as boerwar, but he seemed a bit out of it today, couldn’t even bother backing up his fictitious claims with any supporting evidence.

  21. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 6:36 pm


    hazza4257says:
    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 5.43

    I wouldn’t call it pesky success. They had a very quick response and a strict lockdown (as SA always does, and VIC has adopted lately) whereas NSW had the complete opposite.
    ________________
    Adopted lately for Vic is correct. Who could ever forget Cedar Meats last year.
    So many lives lost and the damage that caused.

    With the state having to step in because the federal government couldn’t manage the faculties they are responsible for, a recurring theme through the whole pandemic.
    We still don’t have the support staff ( group 1a) vaccinated.

  22. Low life Frytheplanet couldn’t take embarrassment smirk off his face while Patricia Karvelas filleted him without administering pain killer first.

    A killer interview.

  23. meher baba:

    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 6:40 pm

    [‘I argued it persistently for several pages of the blog. How long am I supposed to go on for?’]

    Ad infinitum.

  24. By golly that Plato chappy was on to something here…………

    The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.

  26. Rex Douglas @ #1155 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 6:27 pm

    Bert @ #1151 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 6:25 pm

    I’ve got a radical idea for controlling Covid……STOP LETTING PEOPLE IN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES!!!!!
    Get the quarantine facilities fully built and operating then once that’s done bring our own home.
    Once that’s done then we can think about letting so called movie stars and various other excreta in but not before.
    The chances of that happening? SFA.

    I think there’s just been too many allowed to leave then come back, especially the privileged types.

    They go overseas, then they drop to the end of the queue to get back. Fek ’em.

  27. So people whose parents are dying overseas or in Australia – should be told sorry you won’t be allowed to go see them ?

    Seems a touch heartless.

  28. Is there any case for Brian Houston and his wife jumping the queue to get back into Australia having been granted leave to go to America for some stupid “religious”thing?

  30. Morrison should’ve had purpose-built quarantine centres operating last year.

    Hotel quarantine still leaking to this day.

  31. It’s going to be a great spring in Sydney!
    ———–
    What are we now, 37th of 38? What colour medal is 37th?

    As for spring, yeah, nah.
    As they speed through the finish, the flags go down
    The fans get up and they get out of town
    The arena is empty except for one man
    Still driving and striving as fast as he can

    You may have missed it but the Sydney outbreak – you know the one, they are still in it dont you know, no end in sight – happened in July. Vaccines in spring are too little too late mate.

  32. BK Of course the overseas travel has been rorted.

    Don’t be naive – there is usually 2 classes or rules in most things. VIP’s get better treatment, thats why they are VIPs.

    Banning all travel is another thing altogether.

  33. Guys
    Read the below article. It shows how American media networks are trying rig the medal tally to show USA on top.
    Seriously guys USA will do any bloody thing to show how great they even when they are not. It is another instance of how Trump corrupted American society.

    https://www-foxsports-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.foxsports.com.au/tokyo-olympics-2021/weird-way-usa-is-rigging-tokyo-olympics-medal-tally/news-story/70f27cd92cc73b8d0f59002b3e238e09?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16274590984376&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxsports.com.au%2Ftokyo-olympics-2021%2Fweird-way-usa-is-rigging-tokyo-olympics-medal-tally%2Fnews-story%2F70f27cd92cc73b8d0f59002b3e238e09

  34. Taylormade @ #NaN Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 6:36 pm

    hazza4257says:
    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 5.43

    I wouldn’t call it pesky success. They had a very quick response and a strict lockdown (as SA always does, and VIC has adopted lately) whereas NSW had the complete opposite.
    ________________
    Adopted lately for Vic is correct. Who could ever forget Cedar Meats last year.
    So many lives lost.

    Who could forget Victorian Aged Care?

    So many lives lost.

  35. SK,

    Cudchewer predicted thousands of deaths and “meltdown”. 10 deaths are sad but its nowhere near that.

    Sadly in December no one will care about how many people were jabbed in July.

  36. meher baba at 6:39 pm
    Goodness. The CIS still going. Back in the 90’s and early noughties (?) as Rupes cut back on journos it was neck and neck between the CIS and IPA to provide editorial section articles published in The Australian. The IPA came out the winner. They succeeded in stopping me buying the paper that I’d previously bought daily. After a short time all you had to do was read the headline, check where the article came from. Spot IPA or CIS and you knew all the arguments that would be run and barrow pushed.

  39. Problem is with “VIPs” is that really, they are only self-important and are recognised by other self-important “VIPs”. Is is true, or a media myth, that Margaret Court was seen at Wimbledon recently?

  40. Ven

    Seriously guys USA will do any bloody thing to show how great they even when they are not. It is another instance of how Trump corrupted American society.

    I think that sort of stuff and their claim to be the greatest nation in the world, solar system and universe and the wish to let everyone know it is so has been around since way before Trump.

  42. meher baba:

    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 6:49 pm

    [‘mavis: “Ad infinitum.”

    Like Mundo?’]

    I don’t see mundo in that way. I see him as a stirrer but essentially a Labor supporter. Whereas you’re – and I’ve suggested this on a number of occasions – a fence sitter, almost desperately attempting to be objective, which doesn’t seem to work for me. But don’t get me wrong, I have a few Tory friends.

  43. Tricot says:
    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 7:07 pm
    Problem is with “VIPs” is that really, they are only self-important and are recognised by other self-important “VIPs”. Is is true, or a media myth, that Margaret Court was seen at Wimbledon recently?
    ___________________________________
    Not really – here’s an example for you – Carols in the Domain (when it happened pre Covid).

    The hoi polloi bring a blanket and cue for 24 hours or more to get a good seat on the ground. Theres a sealed off VIP section – ticket only admission, proper seats, catered food etc etc – those seats are right in front of the stage.

    OR take the Australian Open – see too many ordinary folk watching at the Finals ?

    Best,

    Lars

  44. Simon Katich @ #NaN Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 7:00 pm

    It’s going to be a great spring in Sydney!
    ———–
    What are we now, 37th of 38? What colour medal is 37th?

    As for spring, yeah, nah.
    As they speed through the finish, the flags go down
    The fans get up and they get out of town
    The arena is empty except for one man
    Still driving and striving as fast as he can

    You may have missed it but the Sydney outbreak – you know the one, they are still in it dont you know, no end in sight – happened in July. Vaccines in spring are too little too late mate.

    I see what you did there. 🙂

  46. Lars…sorry…don’t get your point. You only get to be a VIP (surely) if other VIPs think you should be regarded as such? The old play “The Admirable Crichton” said it all when it came to VIPs……Or, to use an absurd example, Boris Johstone finishes up on a desert island with a raving lunatic. Question: Is Boris a VIP or just a partner for the other lunatic?

  48. I didn’t know that Indonesia had become ‘the global epicentre of the virus’:

    Singapore: The Australian government is working with Qantas to organise a flight for expats stranded in Indonesia, with nearly 800 registered as wanting to return home from a country that is now the global epicentre of the virus.

    The halving of the quarantine cap in Australia and a major reduction in commercial flights by cash-strapped airline Garuda Indonesia has left seats on the remaining weekly Jakarta to Sydney service booked out for the rest of the year and led prices for one-way ticket to soar beyond $12,000.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/qantas-flight-organised-for-vulnerable-australians-stuck-in-indonesia-20210728-p58dnw.html

  49. zerlo, what are you saying Australia should have vaccines in July 2019? Given covid started circulating in November 2019 – that seems a tad ambitious?

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