I had a piece yesterday on Campbell Newman’s break with the Liberal National Party and plans to run for the Senate in Crikey, which I believe has its paywall down for a limited time only. The upshot is that Newman’s anti-lockdown message may struggle to gain traction in a state that hasn’t had many of them; that he is unlikely to benefit the conservative cause even if he wins; and that his presence on the ballot paper could even contribute to a seat currently held by the Liberal National Party (specifically Amanda Stoker) or Pauline Hanson instead going to Labor or the Greens.
The article includes a reference to a poll conducted by Ipsos in June from a sample of 500 Queensland respondents for conservative podcast host Damian Coory, who published approval ratings for state political figures among its small sample of 173 LNP voters. Newman was credited with an approval rating of nearly 60%, substantially higher than any of his four successors as party leader, which may have encouraged him in his present course. Newman has also maintained high name recognition, with only around 20% of respondents uncommitted, compared with around 40% for Lawrence Springborg and Deb Frecklington and 60% for David Crisafulli, who replaced Frecklington after the election defeat in October.
Rightly or wrongly, some media accounts have tied Newman’s abandonment of the LNP to a crisis in the party that was laid bare by Saturday’s Stretton by-election, which delivered it an unimpressive swing of 1.6%. My live results display for the by-election continues to be updated here, if on a somewhat irregular basis. The Electoral Commission of Queensland helpfully publishes preference flows by candidate, which may be of some interest: these show that preferences of the Informed Medical Options Party broke 60-40 to the LNP, while the Greens went 82-18 to Labor and Animal Justice went 56-44.
Elsewhere, Antony Green offers his estimated new margins for the finalised federal redistribution of Victoria.
lizzie @ #NaN Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 4:26 pm
Honestly, lizzie, isn’t that sort of thing the best reason to vote them out? You’ll never get an honest answer out of any of them, no matter how hard even the best journos try.
BK
A couple of cartoonist had him pegged close to that for a while
Pope has him as a show biz clown
Moir has always liked to have him in a candy cane wait coat and bow tie. A carny spruiker ?
Griff: “As for the sense of entitlement that you have to consider yourself in a position to tell a moderate muslim what to think about a person who wore a Templar cross on a military campaign in Afghanistan”
I’m not a Christian, but I also happen to think that I am in a position to tell a Christian – moderate or otherwise – what to think about same-sex marriage and abortion. Is that disgusting in your view?
Morrison as interpreted by Murdoch – put it in your diary
guytaur @ #808 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 11:07 am
Are they any instances of an opposition winning government off the back of advocating a broad tax increase on the demographics they are attempting to persuade?
I don’t agree with the stage 3 tax cuts but making that the battleground is what the Conservatives would want – because it would give them a clear and simple pathway to victory.
C@t
I can think of no reason to vote for them. None in the world.
Morrison trying to use Olympic gold as part of his “we’re winning over the virus” strategy is frankly sickening.
Scotty setting up for election in 2022.
Shameless.
Recon @ #1060 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 4:09 pm
Think of the politician/brass as the masterchef.
They select a prime cut of raw beef and transform it into an extravagant creation that will enhance the business.
Basically, they transformed a susceptible man into a ruthless killer to further their careers.
lizzie at 5:10 pm
🙂 Oh dear, the 3rd government entry today in the Comical Ali competition.
thanks Hazza for your extra comments. I think many people presume that most or nearly all Chinese voters will just vote for a particular Chinese background candidate. I think every section of our very diverse population – particularly in our major cities – will have a variety of political loyalties. While there are many wealthy Chinese people living in a seat like Chisholm and such people would probably be more inclined to vote Liberal, there are also many who are not so affluent and are probably more inclined to vote Labor or the Greens.Sadly, I suspect there would be a minority of non-Chinese voters in Chisholm and the neighbouring seat of Deakin who would not voted for a Chinese background candidate. Maybe the Labor campaign “experts” are seeing some advantage for Labor in running a non-Chinese candidate in Chisholm this time around? The 2PP margin in Chisholm is wafer thin and who knows what may tip the balance one way or the other.
poroti
The difference between the UK and the US may amount to AstraZeneca being less protective from death, particularly in older people.
Cud Chewer @ #928 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 1:16 pm
In fairness, in world terms, NSW is doing a reasonable job. Hospitalisations are well within capacity and Reff is low (but not quite below one).
It really only the pesky success of Victoria and SA that is making them look bad
meher baba,
Religions may be equivalent. Please explain how same sex marriage is equivalent to an SAS member under investigation for war crimes in Afghanistan wearing a Templar cross? Or are you raising a false equivalence argument? If so, you are digging even further.
Even “Crusader Rabbit” knows that you don’t wear your insignia into battle …
… or perhaps his superiors have airbrushed it out?
Robbo
Yes I think you are right. Labor chasing the unconscious xenophobe vote and taking the gamble that Chinese voters won’t all gravitate to Gladys. I think it’s the right call but only time will tell!
It seems like a pretty even distribution amongst the Chinese demographic, in terms of traditional Liberal vs traditional Labor types. You have the wealthy apartment dwellers down in Box Hill as well as the suburban households – some of whom are quite impoverished it must be said.
Let’s just hope we don’t see this again:
WTR
“It really only the pesky success of Victoria and SA that is making them look bad.”
I wouldn’t call it pesky success. They had a very quick response and a strict lockdown (as SA always does, and VIC has adopted lately) whereas NSW had the complete opposite.
Frydenberg sings a different tune on Melbourne radio.
BW,
Here’s a little gift.
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/china-makes-market-tea-leaves-very-hard-read-2021-07-28/?taid=610108adafcfee00019ad31b&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
So now it’s a lottery?
BK @ #1087 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 4:49 pm
Has the prick ever been anything else?
WTR
When the cases edge up in NSW (we’ve been given no good reason why this won’t continue) and subsequentlly contact tracing falls off a cliff, the virus will quadruple per week. Tens of thousands of cases per day to follow.
In other words its not where we are, but where we are headed. 🙁
Just got back from getting my second AZ. I already have the certificate through MyGov!
C@t, only dipping into the blog a bit, due to being busy, but you are absolutely correct about me taking mum to East Village in Zetland. Luckily Saturday was shopping day, not Sunday.
However, I ducked in quickly yesterday to get a spring roll or two to eat on the dog walk, from the Japanese takeaway, and I have never seen the place so dead. At that time I did not know about the Saturday AZ warning.
It is like playing Russian roulette. On the other hand, the one time I insisted on the smaller Danks St Coles, the people with the plague were staying at the Meriton apartments, which share the complex. I watched for days waiting for the Coles, or the pharmacy to come up, but they must have kept to themselves.
citizen @ #1081 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 4:32 pm
He is just kicking the can down the road again. Yet another announcement, with yet another get out clause, ie “I would expect”.
Nothing has changed.
Douglas and Milko,
Thank goodness you, and yours I am hoping too, are safe and well. 🙂
Hello dave! *waves* 🙂
Hiya C@t 🙂
I’m a bit confused here.
First it was ‘not a race’. Now it is ‘go for gold’. With a touch of jingoistic Oi!O!O!
WTF is this mixed messaging?
Thanks for doing your bit!
I am also jabbed with AZ.
Douglas and Milko @ #1123 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 5:53 pm
BK,
I didn’t think the gymnastics could be topped, but it has!
According go this article, younger people in Canberra (Covid free at the moment) have not been rushing to heed Morrison’s urging to have AstraZeneca jabs.
Do we know if the same applies to other parts of Australia where the risk of contacting Covid is currently low? (Obviously in Sydney there would be many younger people willing to risk AstraZeneca with the virus raging.)
(edit to add reference)
https://the-riotact.com/no-surge-for-az-among-young-in-the-act-goulburn-man-tests-positive/480989
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 5:45 pm
BW,
Here’s a little gift.
…’
________________________
Thank you.
Some of the crackdowns are about Xi knocking off tall poppies.
Some of the crackdowns are about Xi throttling back over-leveraged Chinese entities.
Some of them are inexplicable.
So, ‘it’s not a race’ but now he wants us to win the biggest race of all!?! 🙄
LongMemory82 @ #1131 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 6:06 pm
+1 🙂
That’s great news Doug and milko – sounds like your part of the vaccination wave building in Australia.
For those locked down looking for some good binge…
The Good Fight.
Just catching up with season 4. Really good.
Yet another legal defeat for the Porter side:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/28/court-allows-secret-parts-of-abc-defence-in-christian-porter-defamation-case-to-be-seen-by-coroner
Two of my kids aged young/mid 20’s getting AZ this Friday following tele meeting with GP.
Rather be vaxed than vulnerable.
Not sure if Porter opposed the document going to the coroner but whatever Justice Jagot decides in the Federal Court will not bind the SA coroner releasing the defence.
I wonder if HH can decide the defence stays on the file but prevents access to third parties?
How on earth can Morrison keep Porter in his ministry given the allegations against him haven’t been tested ..?
Morrison has no standards or ethics.
From the Guardian live blog …
Isn’t that nice? When it comes to their own health, Gladys listens to the medical advice. When it comes to our health, it’s “Let it Rip!”
mikehilliard @ #1139 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 6:17 pm
Indeed. One of mine now booked in for a month away. First we could get. No luck for the other yet 🙁
meher baba:
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 3:35 pm
[‘The war in Afghanistan wasn’t a public relations exercise, it was about intimidating and defeating evil and ruthless enemies.’]
Stirrer!
mikehilliard @ #1141 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 6:17 pm
50,000-1 odds of a problem for young people is pretty good odds.
Even the Guardian has been forced to revise its dodgy vaccine tracker down to 7 months to completion.
Looks like 17% fully vaxxed now and 36% one doze.
Not withstanding cud chewers forecasts of mass death – It’s going to be a great spring in Sydney!
Player One @ #1144 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 6:19 pm
Pretty blatant avoidance of parliamentary scrutiny.
Player One
Our local clinic seems to have a surplus of AZ. Good luck at your end.
Player One
Our local clinic seems to have a surplus of AZ. Good luck at your end.
I’ve got a radical idea for controlling Covid……STOP LETTING PEOPLE IN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES!!!!!
Get the quarantine facilities fully built and operating then once that’s done bring our own home.
Once that’s done then we can think about letting so called movie stars and various other excreta in but not before.
The chances of that happening? SFA.