Hello Newman

An eventful weekend bequeaths Queensland a by-election result and an unexpected new Senate election candidate.

I had a piece yesterday on Campbell Newman’s break with the Liberal National Party and plans to run for the Senate in Crikey, which I believe has its paywall down for a limited time only. The upshot is that Newman’s anti-lockdown message may struggle to gain traction in a state that hasn’t had many of them; that he is unlikely to benefit the conservative cause even if he wins; and that his presence on the ballot paper could even contribute to a seat currently held by the Liberal National Party (specifically Amanda Stoker) or Pauline Hanson instead going to Labor or the Greens.

The article includes a reference to a poll conducted by Ipsos in June from a sample of 500 Queensland respondents for conservative podcast host Damian Coory, who published approval ratings for state political figures among its small sample of 173 LNP voters. Newman was credited with an approval rating of nearly 60%, substantially higher than any of his four successors as party leader, which may have encouraged him in his present course. Newman has also maintained high name recognition, with only around 20% of respondents uncommitted, compared with around 40% for Lawrence Springborg and Deb Frecklington and 60% for David Crisafulli, who replaced Frecklington after the election defeat in October.

Rightly or wrongly, some media accounts have tied Newman’s abandonment of the LNP to a crisis in the party that was laid bare by Saturday’s Stretton by-election, which delivered it an unimpressive swing of 1.6%. My live results display for the by-election continues to be updated here, if on a somewhat irregular basis. The Electoral Commission of Queensland helpfully publishes preference flows by candidate, which may be of some interest: these show that preferences of the Informed Medical Options Party broke 60-40 to the LNP, while the Greens went 82-18 to Labor and Animal Justice went 56-44.

Elsewhere, Antony Green offers his estimated new margins for the finalised federal redistribution of Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,319 comments on “Hello Newman”

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  1. Some smashing contributions from Alpo and Douglas and Milko last night!

    If necessary (ie if Firefox tries his malarkey again today), I will republish them because I couldn’t have put it better myself why Labor just needs to ignore The Greens and get on with trying to win government without them.


  2. jt1983 says:
    Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 12:09 am

    If you’re the opposition and the campaign is about you and your policies … you’re losing.

    Exactly and aren’t the Greens and the Liberals so disappointed Labor aren’t falling for that trap again.

    Wall to wall whinging from the usual suspects yesterday.

  3. William Bowe: “his presence on the ballot paper could even contribute to a seat currently held by the Liberal National Party (specifically Amanda Stoker) or Pauline Hanson instead going to Labor or the Greens”

    I’ll drink to that.

  4. I will also note that boerwar tried to dismiss the worth of the Olympics based upon a cursory glance at them, only to find that Skateboarding has been included and then using that as a basis to argue against it (though I don’t know that throwing a heavy iron ball around is any more sensible, or athletic).

    Respectfully, however, what I will say is that by watching your fellow country men and women you can actually learn a lot about the political zeitgeist.

    So it was that, when I was watching the Skateboarding, I believe I saw our female representative in the competition flash the White Power signal before she set off on a run. Oh dear, I thought, we really need to do something about this in Australia if this is how far it has percolated.

    And, to get back to the subject of this thread, it’s a very good reason to work very, very hard not to elect people from the tragically misnamed Liberal Democrat Party. They are the home to a lot of these people.

  5. frednk @ #NaN Tuesday, July 27th, 2021 – 6:40 am


    jt1983 says:
    Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 12:09 am

    If you’re the opposition and the campaign is about you and your policies … you’re losing.

    Exactly and aren’t the Greens and the Liberals so disappointed Labor aren’t falling for that trap again.

    Wall to wall whinging from the usual suspects yesterday.

    I sure hope it doesn’t happen again today! Though they are One Trick Green Ponies and it probably will.

    *sigh*

  6. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 26, 2021 at 10:25 pm
    And hasn’t the Black Wiggle sunk without a trace? ??
    ========================
    Sinking without a trace is often the best thing a politician can do for his/her party. Shorten should have done that after the last election. In the meantime, every time he opens his mouth he costs Labor votes, and just wait until the Libs run the “vote for Albo and you’ll get Shorten” ad, before the next election. It’s going to be devastating.

  7. To travel to QLD, the QLD Health website says:
    * You must complete the Queensland Entry Pass in the 3 days before you travel to Queensland.
    but also:
    * [You are] required to complete a declaration 3 days before entering Queensland.

    The form itself asks “Planned date of entry into Queensland (must be within next 3 days)”.

    Clear as mud? (It rejected my date of travel, so I’ll try again tomorrow.)

  8. Good news on the Brittany Higgins front:

    Former political staffer Brittany Higgins has welcomed the federal government’s promise to establish an independent complaints body, following a review of parliament’s handling of sexual harassment and assault allegations.

    What we know:

    The federal government has promised to implement all 10 recommendations made by the Foster Review, launched after Higgins went public about her alleged 2019 rape in the office of cabinet minister Linda Reynolds (SBS);
    “These reforms, most notably the independent complaints mechanism, will ensure Parliament House is a safer workplace for all future employees,” Higgins tweeted;
    The complaints body will be up and running within six weeks, Prime Minister Scott Morrison pledged (The Mandarin);
    The body will not look at Higgins’ complaint or similar incidents from previous parliamentary terms (news.com.au);
    After-hours access to Parliament House will be tightened and subject to more patrols;
    A “Serious Incident Team” will provide advice and support and attempt to resolve smaller matters;
    A one-hour training session on sexual harassment will be mandatory for government ministers, but optional for politicians outside Cabinet — who may be named and shamed if they don’t attend (ABC);
    The review however did recommend training be “mandatory for all parliamentarians”.

  9. I saw a small part of the Skateboarding last night, and was horrified at the way the young girls crashed on to concrete with no protection. A couple were obviously limping afterwards.

  10. The upshot is that Newman’s anti-lockdown message may struggle to gain traction in a state that hasn’t had many of them; that he is unlikely to benefit the conservative cause even if he wins; and that his presence on the ballot paper could even contribute to a seat currently held by the Liberal National Party (specifically Amanda Stoker) or Pauline Hanson instead going to Labor or the Greens.

    That would be funny. It seems the only place Campbell Newman is relevant is in his own mind.

  11. The NSW Government reportedly remains split over how to manage the state’s worsening Covid crisis, with the ongoing lockdown costing $850 million per week.

    Yesterday, a NSW crisis cabinet meeting stretched on for almost five hours, with those in attendance studying economic modelling showing the dire impact of a lockdown which lasted until September.

    But according to The Australian, opinions remained divided, with some pushing for harsher restrictions to be imposed on southwest Sydney, which has become the state’s Covid ground zero, in order to allow other areas greater freedom.

    On the other hand, others reportedly called for a “cautious” approach which would involve restrictions remaining “as tight as possible”, which NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant stated yesterday.

  12. “Sinking without a trace is often the best thing a politician can do for his/her party.”
    Farewell Dudley Morrison!
    Can’t wait to see the adds ……
    a vote for Morrison and you get Morrison!
    “It’s going to be devastating.”

  13. I saw a small part of the Skateboarding last night, and was horrified at the way the young girls crashed on to concrete
    ——————
    You should see local girls Aussie rules games.

  14. lizzie @ #NaN Tuesday, July 27th, 2021 – 7:08 am

    I saw a small part of the Skateboarding last night, and was horrified at the way the young girls crashed on to concrete with no protection. A couple were obviously limping afterwards.

    They call their injuries ‘war wounds’. My son has a friend from school who went on to be a professional touring skateboarder and he was making a lot of money from a very young age. It’s a very popular sport.

    Though I do agree the competitors should be wearing elbow and knee pads. 🙂

    Sport, in general though, causes injuries.

  15. Morning all. I admit to bias living in SA (and knowing people in SA Health) but why does NSW call its contact tracing team the “gold standard” when SA Health appears to use a more rigorous “double ring” approach to contact tracing?

    Results speak for themselves – after three instances of unexpected covid outbreaks SA Health has contained all three in less than a week.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-27/what-is-the-sa-double-ring-fencing-approach-to-covid/100323140

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Rob Harris looks at the issues Labor had in coming up with the taxation policy it will take to the election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-sore-point-in-the-ranks-inside-labor-s-tax-cut-decision-20210726-p58d3o.html
    Josh Butler says Labor’s tax cuts ‘capitulation’ clears the decks for the next election.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/07/26/labor-tax-cuts-election/
    And Michelle Grattan writes that, after making itself a mega target in 2019, Labor has confirmed it will be a small one in 2022 by promising an Albanese government would keep the 2024 income tax cuts and not disturb negative gearing and capital gains tax. She says this decision essentially completes the “de-Shortening” of Labor’s controversial policy pitch.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/07/26/michelle-grattan-labor-announcement/
    Jack Waterford asks, “Did we all over-estimate what Scott Morrison had to offer?” The prime minister is acquiring a reputation as a liar and a deceiver, and worse, his agenda is usually suspect, he says.
    https://johnmenadue.com/did-we-all-over-estimate-what-scott-morrison-had-to-offer/
    Katina Curtis and Shane Wright report that Michaelia Cash has promised Parliament will have a chance to debate a planned anti-corruption watchdog before the end of the year as the opposition seeks a second inquiry into the government’s commuter car park scheme. The government’s policy as it stands is a toothless offering.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/corruption-watchdog-coming-as-car-parks-drive-more-questions-20210725-p58cnb.html
    Labor will try to prevent the rorting of grants funds by introducing a bill requiring ministers to explain, in real time, when they reject recommendations from their department, explains Paul Karp.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/26/labor-anti-rorting-bill-would-make-ministers-divulge-grant-decisions
    Peter Hartcher writes that America’s recent military history points to strategic shortcomings. He points out that the US has not won a major war since World War II.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/america-s-recent-military-history-points-to-strategic-shortcomings-20210726-p58d1y.html
    Paul Sakkal outlines what the shape of Victoria’s lockdown easing might be.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-to-tighten-border-controls-as-state-eyes-baby-steps-out-of-lockdown-20210726-p58d11.html
    Jenna Price is not happy that when Scott Morrison failed to shut down dissidents and extreme views from his own side, he reassured and gave succour to those who hold those views.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/lack-of-leadership-creates-a-toehold-for-lockdown-fury-20210725-p58cta.html
    The Age’s editorial says that the lockdown protests were wrong-headed in the extreme.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/lockdown-protests-were-wrongheaded-in-the-extreme-20210725-p58cq7.html
    Once more unto the breach of common sense and science, they come. The anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers. Blinded by ignorance and feverish self-righteousness, it’s a wonder they don’t march off the edge of the flat earth, laments Warwick McFadyen.
    https://johnmenadue.com/lockdown-protesters-march-across-the-flat-earth/
    The NSW government is rethinking its vaccine strategy with a more targeted approach to younger at-risk communities in south-west Sydney. Really there’s not enough vaccine to plug all the gaps.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/lockdown-critical-as-young-people-drive-sydney-s-covid-19-outbreak-20210726-p58d33.html
    Alan Kohler asserts that the Delta strain means the exit plan has to mutate as well.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/07/26/delta-strain-alan-kohler-australia/
    The Australian says that the NSW government is divided over how to tackle stubbornly high numbers of Covid-19 infections, with crisis talks canvassing the tightening of restrictions in some parts of Sydney and easing them in other locations.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nsw-coronavirus-lockdown-rising-infections-split-crisis-cabinet/news-story/f7e4bfe09150a8224dffd39e1146b0e9
    Immunisation expert Peter McIntyre argues that now is the time for vaccine generosity, not ‘state of origin’ jingoism. He paints a picture where, with Delta’s much higher infectiousness, population vaccine coverage would likely need to reach an unachievable 97 per cent or greater to stop all infections in a way comparable to measles. But this is a down-the-track issue.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/time-for-vaccine-generosity-not-state-of-origin-jingoism-20210726-p58cy7.html
    Sarah Martin reveals that one of the federal government’s key vaccine deals has been hit with major delays, with 51 million doses of Novavax originally due to arrive in the second half of this year now not expected until 2022.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/27/major-delay-in-federal-governments-novavax-deal-with-51m-doses-not-expected-until-2022
    Pharmacies believe they’re witnessing a turning point in community perceptions of AstraZeneca on their first day of delivering the vaccine in west and south-west Sydney.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/pharmacies-overwhelmed-by-astrazeneca-interest-20210726-p58cz2
    Phil Coorey writes that the Morrison government is resisting demands to return to the JobKeeper wage subsidy but is examining enhancing the current system of business and income payments, including extending support to welfare recipients. But it won’t be in the form of JobKeeper.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-mulls-support-boost-but-no-return-to-jobkeeper-20210726-p58cv4
    “Why can’t ‘gold standard’ NSW get its cases down, despite weeks in lockdown?”, asks Josh Butler.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/07/26/nsw-case-numbers-lockdown/
    Media coverage has aligned itself with the Liberal Party’s response to the COVID pandemic, while rubbishing Labor’s, writes Dr Victoria Fielding.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/politicised-coverage-media-favours-liberal-covid-response-over-labors,15334
    Hell! Anyone who visited Campsie Centre shopping mall between Wednesday July 14 and Saturday July 24 is a close contact and must get tested immediately and isolate for 14 days. That’s an ELEVEN day transmission period!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/walk-up-shots-priority-for-supermarket-workers-in-western-sydney-20210726-p58cx6.html
    David Penberthy opines that the decision of Marshall and his all-important health and police chiefs to place South Australia into its first lockdown of 2021 was less politically fraught than one might think. He says SA will regain its freedoms more quickly thanks to that rarest of things – a lockdown that not only worked but ended on time.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/steven-marshall-riding-high-in-a-state-of-covid19-freedom/news-story/330ca6e0493b68517dc91751723496d5
    Anthony Galloway tells us that former special forces soldier Ben Roberts-Smith displayed a contentious Crusader’s cross on his uniform while on duty in Afghanistan, with the symbol later digitally removed by the Department of Defence in a widely distributed photo of the decorated war veteran.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wrong-morally-official-photo-of-ben-roberts-smith-was-altered-to-hide-crusader-s-cross-20210726-p58cvu.html
    Meanwhile, Michaela Whitbourn reports that an Afghan villager has told war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith’s defamation trial that he witnessed a “big soldier” kick a member of his family off a cliff before the man was shot dead and an object associated with the Taliban planted near his body.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/big-soldier-involved-in-killing-of-afghan-farmer-ben-roberts-smith-trial-told-20210726-p58cze.html
    Scott Morrison is seldom called exceptional. Yet the current PM will stand out in history in any number of ways; none of them attractive. All need not just analyse, but instill persistent, tough-minded challenging if we are to be left with any semblance of public integrity opines interfaith minister, Stephanie Dowrick.
    https://johnmenadue.com/analysing-morrison-is-not-enough-he-must-be-challenged/
    Lucy Cormack reports that former sex discrimination commissioner Elizabeth Broderick will review NSW Parliament and its management of unacceptable behaviour such as bullying, harassment and sexual misconduct.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/broderick-to-conduct-review-of-sexual-harassment-bullying-in-nsw-parliament-20210726-p58d0z.html
    There has been a marked increase in workers – particularly young workers – taking a mental health day, with several drivers behind the trend, explains Sophie Aubrey.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/just-take-the-mental-health-day-here-s-why-more-of-us-are-20210720-p58bey.html
    Abul Rizvi writes about the citizenship hypocrisy of Dutton and Pezzullo.
    https://johnmenadue.com/duttons-and-pezzullos-citizenship-hypocrisy/
    Does this stink? Brian and Bobbie Houston, the husband and wife team who are co-global senior pastors at Hillsong Church, were given permission to leave Australia and take part in a service at the Hillsong Monterrey congregation in Mexico.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/hillsong-pastors-gain-permission-to-leave-australia-to-preach-in-mexico-20210726-p58d1g.html
    Disaffected hard-right libertarians are working to tap into anti-lockdown sentiment to take control of the Senate and challenge the Coalition, ramping up efforts to attract big political names to their cause. The vile Ross Cameron is in their sights.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/exhoward-ally-ross-cameron-leads-new-senate-push/news-story/5e3ac1a0eb9212d1a8671e0f12413430
    According to Katina Curtis, federal ministers will be required to receive training on recognising and responding to sexual harassment and bullying before the end of the year and other politicians will be encouraged to take part, with their attendance recorded in a public register.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/mandatory-respectful-workplace-training-this-year-for-federal-ministers-20210726-p58d10.html
    Mike Foley and Nick Toscano report that controversial changes to allow energy networks to charge solar panel owners for sending surplus power back to the grid have gained the backing of a key consumer group ahead of a final ruling within weeks. I reckon this would improve the payback calculation for home batteries.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/solar-power-tax-to-boost-energy-grid-gains-backing-of-consumer-advocate-20210726-p58d1c.html
    Bianca Hall explains how a battery network will be established across inner Melbourne from next year in a pilot program designed to deliver more renewable energy to the grid and encourage the take-up of green power.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-to-build-inner-city-battery-network-in-green-power-push-20210726-p58cwo.html
    Callum Foote explains why Australians pay 7th highest prices in the world despite being its biggest gas exporter.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/gas-myths-australians-pay-7th-highest-prices-in-world-despite-being-biggest-gas-exporter/
    Two public health experts explain why it is hard to determine at what stage we could reach herd immunity.
    https://theconversation.com/when-will-we-reach-herd-immunity-here-are-3-reasons-thats-a-hard-question-to-answer-164560
    More from The Conversation which explains how Australia’s fickleness on COVID vaccines is perpetuating global vaccine inequity.
    https://theconversation.com/how-australias-fickleness-on-covid-vaccines-is-perpetuating-global-vaccine-inequity-165001
    The pandemic, and the changing face of shopping, has left Melbourne’s famous Bourke Street Mall facing “grim” times with rents tumbling and vacancies rising.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/trouble-at-the-mall-melbourne-s-prize-shopping-strip-faces-lean-years-20210723-p58c8n.html
    The pandemic has opened up a deep rift within UK Conservatives, and it will grow says Polly Toynbee.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/26/pandemic-conservatives-britain-public-spending-tax-cutting-party
    A playboy, a femme fatale spy and a powerful Italian cardinal are preparing to stand trial in a Vatican corruption inquiry that has changed the way the Holy See conducts criminal justice.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/cardinal-playboy-and-femme-fatale-stand-trial-in-vatican-corruption-case-20210726-p58cu6.html
    Simply Energy earns nomination today for “Arseholes of the Week”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/26/simply-energy-hit-with-25m-fine-after-sales-contractors-allegedly-impersonated-customers-in-scam

    Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    John Shakespeare


    Matt Golding




    Andrew Dyson

    Dionne Gain

    John Spooner????

    From the US








  17. Confessions:

    Newman’s criticisms of the present-day LNP seem to continually miss the fact that he is directly responsible for much of their current problem. It’s been over six years, and a picture of his face still proves one of the most effective attack ads QLD Labor can run.

    Like, fair enough, the state LNP are a basket-case, and pretty much the only time they haven’t been in recent times was when he was opposition leader, but have a bit of self-awareness. It says something that even I think he’s being too harsh on them, and I’m almost always down for some LNP-bashing.

  18. The ALP are really in the box seat at the next election, here is main reason why:

    The results in Queensland at the last Federal election were so lop sided to LNP, there has to be a natural swing back to Labor of some sort (be it small or large)
    The same can be said to a lesser extent of WA, who are going through a Progressive phase at the moment…

    Add to that Morison is only in government by 1 seat atm they can not afford to lose any seats.
    I can not see them winning any seats in the other states

  19. The upshot is that Newman’s anti-lockdown message may struggle to gain traction in a state that hasn’t had many of them

    This hits the nail on the head, in my opinion. While there clearly is some anti-lockdown sentiment here (we did have our own hoards of idiots marching in a few places the other day), I’d imagine it’s pretty minimal. Queensland has been mostly insulated from the effects of Covid, particularly in the regional areas where you’d assume Newman would be hoping to to pick up support.

    I tend to use the father of one of my closest friends as a pretty reliable barometer of conservative opinion in regional Queensland. He typically votes 1 PHON, 2 LNP, considers Sky News the only reliable news source, doesn’t believe in climate change, thinks Trump was a solid president, oathed Bligh (voted for Beattie on occasion, though!), loathes Palazczsuk, has social views that could charitably be called “old-fashioned”, and has been pretty sceptical about lockdowns and Covid in the past. And even he thought the anti-lockdown protesters were irresponsible morons.

  20. Socrates at 7:40 am
    I’m pretty sure NSW did have the double ring. NSW may have had to abandon it due to being overwhelmed by the numbers involved in the current out break.
    Perhaps Gladys should have read this article in Nature last xmas ?

    Why many countries failed at COVID contact-tracing — but some got it right
    Rich nations have struggled with one of the most basic and important methods for controlling infectious diseases.

    …………………………..In England, tracers fail to get in touch with one in eight people who test positive for COVID-19; 18% of those who are reached provide no details for close contacts. In some regions of the United States, more than half of people who test positive provide no details of contacts when asked. These statistics come not from the first wave of COVID-19, but from November, long after initial lockdowns gave countries time to develop better contact-tracing systems.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03518-4

  21. The best thing the Marching Morons have done was to provide the opportunity to people to workshop ideas to characterise and frame them with. Also to work out who they are being organised by.

    My favourite so far has been to break up ‘Freedom’ into Free + Dumb. 🙂

  22. Gladystan dictatorship:

    Residents of an apartment building at Blacktown in Sydney’s west have been locked indoors after multiple people tested positive for Covid-19. NSW Health is aware of the development and NSW Police confirmed it to NCA NewsWire early on Monday morning. “NSW Police Force are providing support to NSW Health who are responding to several Covid-19 cases in an apartment block at Blacktown. “NSW Police were asked to be on site in case assistance was required.

  23. Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    15m
    Staggering that David Crowe & Fran Kelly are suggesting Labor has a problem of ‘where the money will come from’ to fund its promises.
    They fail to note that the Coalition, which promised budget surpluses, has delivered 8 deficits & has 40 more years of deficits ahead

  24. The depth of the MSM analyses, the Liberals gotchas, and the Greens gotchas demonstrated yesterday why Labor has no option other than to go for small target.

    ANY policy statement is: too little, too much, too big, too small, too early, too late, not enough, too much, different, the same, too expensive, too cheap, copied, a back flip… just tick the relevant boxes.

    There is very little appetite for rational public policy debate.

  25. This to me just highlights how political the process is in NSW and how medical advice has been so easily compromised.

    The Australian says that the NSW government is divided over how to tackle stubbornly high numbers of Covid-19 infections, with crisis talks canvassing the tightening of restrictions in some parts of Sydney and easing them in other locations.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nsw-coronavirus-lockdown-rising-infections-split-crisis-cabinet/news-story/f7e4bfe09150a8224dffd39e1146b0e9

  26. Thanks BK. On this one about US foreign policy:
    “ Peter Hartcher writes that America’s recent military history points to strategic shortcomings. He points out that the US has not won a major war since World War II.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/america-s-recent-military-history-points-to-strategic-shortcomings-20210726-p58d1y.html

    If US strategic decision making hasn’t been very smart for 30 years (post cold war) then it also doesn’t say much for the countries that blindly follow their foreign policy lead in that period i.e. Australia.

    Keating said we need to clean out the defense/intelligence bureaucracy as a bunch of “nutters”. Andrew Wilkie has also made well informed criticisms. I hope the next Labor PM takes on this task. These people are also a long way to the right, as the BRS saga shows.

  27. Socrates @ #19 Tuesday, July 27th, 2021 – 7:40 am

    Morning all. I admit to bias living in SA (and knowing people in SA Health) but why does NSW call its contact tracing team the “gold standard” when SA Health appears to use a more rigorous “double ring” approach to contact tracing?

    Results speak for themselves – after three instances of unexpected covid outbreaks SA Health has contained all three in less than a week.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-27/what-is-the-sa-double-ring-fencing-approach-to-covid/100323140

    Again, it’s a shame Oakeshott Country hasn’t been around. He vigorously, even zealously defended the NSW contact tracing regime throughout the various Vic lockdowns over the past year. I’d be interested to hear his thoughts on the current mess in Sydney.

  28. Cameronsays:
    Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 7:49 am

    Add to that Morison is only in government by 1 seat atm they can not afford to lose any seats.
    I can not see them winning any seats in the other states.
    ________________
    Keep an eye on Corangamite

  29. Asha:

    Remarkably I saw a puff piece in the media at the weekend for Springborg, announcing he was “back”.

    Are the LNP so hard up for talent that the Borg has to be brought back from wherever it was he went?

  30. NSW does do primary and secondary.
    .
    .
    NSW Health fact sheet for secondary close contacts

    COVID-19 is very easily spread, particularly among households and friends.
    If you live in the same house or have spent significant time with someone who is a close contact of a person with COVID-19 in the past 3 days, you are a secondary close contact.
    You need to get tested and isolate until both you and the close contact test negative to COVID-19 and you are completely isolated from the person who is the close contact.
    If you can’t completely isolate from that person, you will need to isolate for 14 days.
    Thank you for your help. By following these instructions, you are keeping your family and community safe.
    https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/factsheets/Pages/advice-secondary-close.aspx

  31. I’m hearing this morning that businesses which want to claim Covid payments have to do it through Centrelink, which is causing them delays and problems, having to register, whereas they previously received it through the Tax Office.

    I’m not sure I have that quite right, but it’s not working as simply and swiftly as the government pretends.

    (That’s the problem listening when still half asleep!)

  32. poroti

    The huge difference between the SA and NSW test and trace approaches is that SA Health staff identify, text and call the secondary contacts and asks them to isolate and get tested after every primary contact is interviewed. The NSW system expects those people to identify themselves and act accordingly after every primary contact is identified. The latter approach seems to rely on voluntary cooperation, not directed effort.

  33. I guess it was inevitable that the Labor partisans here would leap in to applaud Labor’s new “empty cupboard” policy platform, which perfectly complements their “empty chair” leadership and their “empty message” campaign strategy.

    And, it has to be admitted, it is a clever strategy if you believe your only path to victory is to fool empty headed voters.


  34. Jack Waterford asks, “Did we all over-estimate what Scott Morrison had to offer?” The prime minister is acquiring a reputation as a liar and a deceiver, and worse, his agenda is usually suspect, he says.
    https://johnmenadue.com/did-we-all-over-estimate-what-scott-

    I think majority people did not know what to estimate about Morrison after he came through the middle in the bloodless coup.
    A lot of people fell for campaign lies of Murdoch hacks and other MSM personalities and other LNP non-truths.
    And also this

    jt1983 says:
    Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 12:09 am

    If you’re the opposition and the campaign is about you and your policies … you’re losing.

    In another also Morrison is one of those politicians who was kicked upstairs after each failure like Rahul Gandhi, the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty scion, of India. IMO, That is reason he said 2019 election victory as a “miracle”

  35. Socrates

    The NSW system expects those people to identify themselves and act accordingly after every primary contact is identified.

    So a ‘Galdys please’ then . Well that has a snowball’s chance in hell of working.


  36. Taylormade says:
    Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 8:34 am

    Cameronsays:
    Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 7:49 am

    Add to that Morison is only in government by 1 seat atm they can not afford to lose any seats.
    I can not see them winning any seats in the other states.
    ________________
    Keep an eye on Corangamite

    Before or after the redistribution and name change?
    Stephanie Asher will definitely be a better Liberal candidate.
    Libby Coker is doing ok and she won against the tide last time.
    If things continue as they are Corangamite won’t be the interesting seat.

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