Hello Newman

An eventful weekend bequeaths Queensland a by-election result and an unexpected new Senate election candidate.

I had a piece yesterday on Campbell Newman’s break with the Liberal National Party and plans to run for the Senate in Crikey, which I believe has its paywall down for a limited time only. The upshot is that Newman’s anti-lockdown message may struggle to gain traction in a state that hasn’t had many of them; that he is unlikely to benefit the conservative cause even if he wins; and that his presence on the ballot paper could even contribute to a seat currently held by the Liberal National Party (specifically Amanda Stoker) or Pauline Hanson instead going to Labor or the Greens.

The article includes a reference to a poll conducted by Ipsos in June from a sample of 500 Queensland respondents for conservative podcast host Damian Coory, who published approval ratings for state political figures among its small sample of 173 LNP voters. Newman was credited with an approval rating of nearly 60%, substantially higher than any of his four successors as party leader, which may have encouraged him in his present course. Newman has also maintained high name recognition, with only around 20% of respondents uncommitted, compared with around 40% for Lawrence Springborg and Deb Frecklington and 60% for David Crisafulli, who replaced Frecklington after the election defeat in October.

Rightly or wrongly, some media accounts have tied Newman’s abandonment of the LNP to a crisis in the party that was laid bare by Saturday’s Stretton by-election, which delivered it an unimpressive swing of 1.6%. My live results display for the by-election continues to be updated here, if on a somewhat irregular basis. The Electoral Commission of Queensland helpfully publishes preference flows by candidate, which may be of some interest: these show that preferences of the Informed Medical Options Party broke 60-40 to the LNP, while the Greens went 82-18 to Labor and Animal Justice went 56-44.

Elsewhere, Antony Green offers his estimated new margins for the finalised federal redistribution of Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,319 comments on “Hello Newman”

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  1. In that music, there is an electronic sound effect that in the original stereo mix doesn’t go past you. Rather it goes straight through the middle of your skull and out the other side.. and then it does the same thing in reverse. Beautiful and yet so un-natural.

    I confess that at the time we had a Kelpie dog and I thought I’d share my music with her so I carefully held the headphones for her. At the part where the sound effect went straight through the middle of her head, she performed the most amazing acrobatics I’ve ever seen a dog do.. Something like a backwards somersault with pike.

    She eyed the headphones with suspicion ever afterwards 🙂

  2. Perhaps a portmanteau is the way to reconciliation?



    Answers on a postcard from a location 6m or more above sea level.

  3. Jarre was supposed to have played in Melbourne in 1996 with the laser show straddling Southbank and Flinders Street station. Still disappointed that it was cancelled. I would love to play laser harp some time though..

  4. Peak global sea levels during the Pliocene estimated to be 20 metres above present day values, CO2 estimated to be 400ppm. Current CO2 are at 419 ppm and CO2 equivalent are about 500ppm. Anyone see a problem.

  5. I believe I have noticed something about Channel 7 and their Olympic commentators. It may something or nothing.

    I have not seen them mention any athlete who competes under the IOC Refugee flag.

    Even when that Refugee competitor is in a medal winning position, they have not been acknowledged in any event I watched.

    Maybe it is just a coincidence in my viewing times, and I might be seeing conspiracies in the clouds.

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