Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Another poll showing federal Labor with a lead fuelled by big swings in Queensland and Western Australia.

Roy Morgan maintained its erratic ways on Friday by publishing results from its regularly conducted federal polling for the first time in a month, which is likely to be the last federal voting intention poll for over a fortnight. The results are broadly in line with polling elsewhere in showing Labor with a lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%.

The state breakdowns are also fairly similar to the last Newspoll quarterly aggregate, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales (a swing of a bit over 2% from the 2019 election, half a point more than Newspoll), 56-44 in Victoria (a swing of nearly 3%, compared with next to no change in Newspoll), 52.5-47.5 in Western Australia (an 8% swing, half a point less than Newspoll), 51-49 in South Australia (next to no swing, compared with around 3% in Newspoll) and 58-42 from the small Tasmanian sample (a 2% swing), while the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a 7% swing, 1.5% more than Newspoll).

The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2737 over the last two weekends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
    Monday, July 26, 2021 at 10:16 pm

    Waterfront protests.
    Anti-biker laws.
    illegal assembly laws.

    We don’t do that in Australia? What planet are you on?

  2. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 26, 2021 at 10:27 pm
    I wonder how many Greens’ voters are also Anti Vaxxers? \\

    a good proportion – at least 10% -15

    i have no time for anti vaxxers generally

    if there is a debate (and there isn’t one assumes ) it is with covid vaccine only
    but anti vaxxers pump up argument use false stats etc

  3. “I wonder how many Greens’ voters are also Anti Vaxxers? ”

    ***

    How desperate.

    The Greens are very strong supporters of vacation.

  4. Btw Barney, people don’t listen to the law, they don’t listen to the police.

    So what would YOU do.? Instead of bitching about what I posted, what would YOU do instead ?

    Just let them spread covid19 to every single state?

    The dumb attitude you have Barney.

  5. Zerlo @ #1405 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 8:42 pm

    Btw Barney, people don’t listen to the law, they don’t listen to the police.

    So what would YOU do.? Instead of bitching about what I posted, what would YOU do instead ?

    Just let them spread covid19 to every single state?

    The dumb attitude you have Barney.

    How are the protests spreading the virus across borders?

    They are certainly a risk of spreading it amongst themselves, which provides another level of danger for the police to deal with if it came to engaging them.

    As I said before I find it hard to criticise how the they dealt with it, and continue to deal with it, they have done a pretty good job.

  6. It seems obvious to me that many Labor voters are sh*t scared of the Greens (ridiculous as that may be) and Labor will do everything it can to avoid being associated with then.

    They know they’ll get those preferences anyway. But they have to retain other voters who might flock to the Coalition if they get a whiff of “woke communism” or whatever rubbish News Corp is pushing about the Greens.

    Personally I think AG primary vote has reached its peak now and won’t continue to grow. If it does, and Greens take a few more inner city seats, the issue is going to come to a head methinks.

  7. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1406 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 10:41 pm

    ????????

    I think his point is that Australia has form for doing oversealous and oppressive (if not, strictly speaking, directly violent) things to quell protest, control/marginalize disliked groups, etc..

    And fair enough, too. Queensland threw a bunch of climate protestors in jail not that long ago. Why is NSW faffing about with $1000 fines?

  8. a r @ #1407 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 8:49 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1406 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 10:41 pm

    ????????

    I think his point is that Australia has form for doing oversealous and oppressive (if not, strictly speaking, directly violent) things to quell protest, control/marginalize disliked groups, etc..

    And fair enough, too. Queensland threw a bunch of climate protestors in jail not that long ago. Why is NSW faffing about with $1000 fines?

    None of which involves using the military, which was his suggestion.

  9. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/covid-cases-are-rising-again-in-all-50-states-across-us-as-delta-variant-tightens-its-grip.html

    Covid cases are on the rise in all 50 states and the District of Columbia as the delta variant rapidly spreads across the U.S. and the virus once again tightens its grip.

    The U.S. is reporting an average of about 43,700 new cases per day over the past week — far below pandemic highs but up 65% over the previous seven days and nearly three times as high as the level two weeks ago, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows. Cases hit a 15-month low in late June before they began to rise yet again as fewer people got vaccinated and the more infectious delta variant took hold in the country.

    Vaccination rates peaked in April at more than 3 million shots per day but have dropped off considerably in recent months to around 530,000 a day, according to data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida and Nevada are reporting the highest daily average of new cases per capita over the past week, all of which are at least double the U.S. rate.

    ——————————————————-

    We are trying to avoid what the USA is going through, however a few thousand dickheads already ruined the chance.

    Getting the Army resolves many things.

    1. Dissolving the protestors.
    2. increase security and logistics.
    3. increase the ability to get vaccinated.
    4. Quarantine hotels and hubs.

  10. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/26/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine?name=styln-coronavirus&region=hub&block=storyline_live_updates_block_recirc&action=click&pgtype=LegacyCollection#in-louisiana-vaccine-misinformation-is-a-huge-challenge-for-public-health-workers

    Facing deep mistrust that has been stoked by conservative news outlets and lawmakers and by rampant misinformation online, local health officials around the country are fighting for influence when the only sure strategy for beating back the virus is getting more people vaccinated.

    Some of those officials say that they consider themselves targets at a time when many of their colleagues around the country have resigned or been fired during the pandemic, including the top vaccine official in Tennessee this month.

    A year and a half into the crisis, their battered departments are now struggling to contain the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant with testing and contact tracing — the best resources, despite their limited reach, in the many places where vaccination rates remain low.

    They are facing new heights of hostility, and new battles are looming over what safety measures schools and businesses should put in place in the fall, decisions the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said should be made in consultation with local health officials.

  11. If there are going to be more mass protests then reasonable to request military assistance to the civil authorities. Maybe less visible tasks, blocking access routes, driving away the arrested.

    Or possibly dealing with it the way much of the rest of Oz would be happy with

  12. bryon @ #1414 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 9:16 pm

    If there are going to be more mass protests then reasonable to request military assistance to the civil authorities. Maybe less visible tasks, blocking access routes, driving away the arrested.

    Or possibly dealing with it the way much of the rest of Oz would be happy with

    Oh, no!

    They got the Kirribilli Hotel.

    Where can one get a refreshing ale after a stroll across the bridge.

  13. And some of the Botanic Gardens which is a shame. Still looks like the Heads have been blocked so will turn into a rather nice fresh water lake

  14. Dr Doolittle

    Re Douglas and Milko at 8.42 pm
    Your language may not be a problem but your poor memory and unfamiliarity with primary sources certainly is. Read Whitlam’s 1972 Blacktown Civic Centre policy speech. It runs to 42 printed pages as reprinted in E.G. W., On Australia’s Constitution (1977) pp 265-307. A very clear progressive agenda. See for example the contrast he made at the start of the International Affairs and Defence section between McMahon’s efforts to keep Australian troops “bogged down on the mainland of Asia” and “Australia’s real test as far as the rest of the world , and particularly our region, is concerned”, which “is the role we create for our own Aborigines. … The Aborigines are a responsibility we cannot escape, cannot share, cannot shuffle off; the world will not let us forget that.” And much more. Read it again.

    Yes, I am aware of all that. The policy was out there for anyone who cared to read it, and most of it was enacted.

    However, for the Dec 1972 election, Labor was not shouting this policy from the rooftops. They ran a tight campaign, with two major messages: 1) Get the troops out of Vietnam, and 2) Let’s look at implementing all the social policy we have been discussing for yonks.

    If you look at the current Labor platform, you will find many progressive policies, including a Federal ICAC, which has been policy since before 2019.

    That does not mean you need to shout every policy from the rooftops, or make the next Federal election a referendum on every piece of progressive policy on the Labor platform.

    That would be a formula to lose.

    You go to the election with an “It’s time to stop corruption” theme, and make a Federal ICAC central to that.

    Once you are in government, the main stream media will *magically start to listen to you , and you can then persuade the populace of the benefits of your progressive program as you implement them.

    *magically means that they rely on your government to provide them with the drip feed they are currently getting from the Coalition.

    That was how Hawke did it, and I cannot see any other way, given the political system we have – apart from permanent, noisy opposition.

  15. “Once you are in government, the main stream media will *magically start to listen to you”

    Yep, listen to you, then write shit about you if you’re Labor.

  16. “Douglas and Milko says:
    Monday, July 26, 2021 at 11:50 pm
    Dr Doolittle

    Re Douglas and Milko at 8.42 pm”

    I agree with Doug. The shock of the ALP loss at the 2019 federal election must also give way to some learning, which will be reflected into an appropriate electoral strategy. The objective is to win government, permanent oppositions are completely useless, no matter how much they boast of being “influential” through the Senate. Now, of course, defeating the Coalition with a regression to a Neoliberal program is ridiculous and it would be equivalent to a Pyrrhic victory. But moving on from the negative gearing policy taken to the last election is not equivalent to a reversion to Neoliberalism, it’s just tactic. I invite everybody to read the ALP 2021 platform (https://www.alp.org.au/media/2355/alp_national_platform_final_draft.pdf ) to convince yourself that the Social Democratic shift is real, significant and enduring.

    As an example, just remember the infamous campaign against Rudd in the lead up to the 2007 federal election where he was accused of doing a “me too” towards Howard. How “me too” were Rudd and his Government and then Gillard and her government? Surely I don’t need to provide the well known list of Social Democratic initiatives that sent Murdoch, the Coalition parties and the rest of the 1% financing them berserk.

    In any event, the results of the opinion polls are extremely encouraging and this time around ScuMo will need more than just an ordinary miracle… He will keep praying, but god may not be interested anymore, after all: “Vox Populi, Vox Dei”…..

  17. “Cud Chewersays:
    Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 1:16 am
    “Once you are in government, the main stream media will *magically start to listen to you”

    Yep, listen to you, then write shit about you if you’re Labor.”

    Exactly, CC!…. And that’s why it’s often so frustrating to see genuine left-wing people going hard against the ALP, trying to smash them with their “purism hammer”. Whilst the same purism keeps other alternative Progressive parties at a miserable 10% primary vote. The Corbynist idea that “it’s better to be defeated than renouncing to purism” may be valid only if there is any chance that a Revolution will come, soon…. Yeah, keep waiting!!

    Unity among true Progressives is the first step to counterbalance the effect of a disgustingly biased mainstream media. But that won’t be enough, we will also need to attract the vote of the centrists, swingers, moderates… and on top of that, we have to keep working hard to De-Moronise as many Voting Morons as possible*.
    ——————————–
    *Voting Moron: A person who votes against his/her own interests.

  18. “in Queensland (a 7% swing [to the ALP], 1.5% more than Newspoll)”…

    The next Federal election will be won or lost in Queensland. On that result, the ALP is on track to win. But the victory may be quite significant, rather than marginal, given that ScuMo was putting most of his eggs in the NSW basket, confident that the “gold standard” was well entrenched in the mind of NSW voters and the Coalition will smash the ALP there…. Alas, the “gold standard” is gone and ScuMo (and Gladys) is becoming persona non grata even in his home state of NSW …. WA, SA, and of course the great Progressive state of Victoria, will provide the coup de grâce …

  19. The ALP are really in the box seat at the next election, here is main reason why:

    The results in Queensland at the last Federal election were so lop sided to LNP, there has to be a natural swing back to Labor of some sort (be it small or large)
    The same can be said to a lesser extent of WA, who are going through a Progressive phase at the moment…

    Add to that Morison is only in government by 1 seat atm they can not afford to loose any seats.
    I can not see them winning any seats in the other states

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    We can be so dumb
    Enjoy!.

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