Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Another poll showing federal Labor with a lead fuelled by big swings in Queensland and Western Australia.

Roy Morgan maintained its erratic ways on Friday by publishing results from its regularly conducted federal polling for the first time in a month, which is likely to be the last federal voting intention poll for over a fortnight. The results are broadly in line with polling elsewhere in showing Labor with a lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%.

The state breakdowns are also fairly similar to the last Newspoll quarterly aggregate, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales (a swing of a bit over 2% from the 2019 election, half a point more than Newspoll), 56-44 in Victoria (a swing of nearly 3%, compared with next to no change in Newspoll), 52.5-47.5 in Western Australia (an 8% swing, half a point less than Newspoll), 51-49 in South Australia (next to no swing, compared with around 3% in Newspoll) and 58-42 from the small Tasmanian sample (a 2% swing), while the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a 7% swing, 1.5% more than Newspoll).

The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2737 over the last two weekends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  2. So there is informed thinking that Australia’s very own fat billionaire, Clive Palmer, was behind the ‘Freedom’ Marches yesterday?

    It figures. Fill people’s heads with dangerous malarkey via a national letter box drop and then feed them into the protests yesterday.

    Hmm, I wonder if anyone kept one of those Palmer Sealed Section yellow propaganda packs and if they did could you look inside and see if there was a website people could go to about it and whether it promoted the march or not?

    It also just occurred to me why Palmer picked yellow. ‘Yellow journalism’, 21st century style, personally delivered to your mailbox.

    Look, it’s just sad that while the rest of us were trying to make the 21st century an enlightened place, that there were others, such as the Trumps and the Farages and the Palmers of this world, who have been trying to find a way to use 21st century tools as methods to enslave us and brainwash us.

    Sad.

  3. Five weeks ago when Berejiklian should’ve locked down Sydney I though there were about a dozen Covid cases. It turns out it was much worse than that – 50 cases were known of.

    A day earlier, NSW Agriculture Minister Adam Marshall had unknowingly contracted COVID-19 while at Christo’s Pizzeria in Paddington. His positive test, revealed two days after the budget, shut down NSW Parliament House and forced politicians, staffers and journalists into isolation.

    But even as the virus invaded the corridors of power, there were only about 50 known COVID-19 cases in the state.

    NSW residents — who had become used to the state’s “gold standard” contract tracing — had no reason to believe this outbreak wouldn’t be contained quickly, without lockdown, just like in the past.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-25/covid19-delta-variant-lockdowns-how-we-got-here/100318394

    And there’s the other problem: complacency. NSW has been cajoled into believing it has a gold standard contact tracing system which is failing under a highly infectious disease without other measures instigated in support. Like a hard lockdown.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    James Massola describes Morrison’s political calculus as, “bare his throat now, go to the polls in May”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-s-political-calculus-bare-his-throat-now-go-to-the-polls-in-may-20210722-p58c04.html
    Jon Faine explains how ‘corruption’ can thrive in a space where weak regulation is parked. This contribution covers a wide range of less than ethical behaviours.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/corruption-can-thrive-in-a-space-where-weak-regulation-is-parked-20210723-p58cdd.html
    Jim Chalmers and Andrew Charlton have put together a long essay – a call to arms – saying, “No, Australia has not peaked. Our best generation is here now”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/25/no-australia-has-not-peaked-our-best-generation-is-here-now
    Having spent a decade framing emissions reduction in apocalyptic terms, the Coalition now has to present different facts, says Katherine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/24/the-coalition-now-has-to-present-different-climate-facts
    Liberal Party policies are designed against the well-being of future generations in order for the current generation to live comfortably, writes John Wren in his review of the last week’s political activities.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-liberal-party-are-intergenerational-thieves,15330
    A very critical Jacqui Maley reckons our horizons keep vanishing as fast as you can say sorry. She makes some good points.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/from-lockdown-our-horizons-keep-vanishing-but-look-is-that-an-apology-no-sorry-false-alarm-20210723-p58cef.html
    James Massola reports that Dominic Perrottet has demanded the federal government reinstate the JobKeeper payment as the number of new coronavirus cases in Sydney rose to 163 on Saturday, declaring “we need it now”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bring-back-jobkeeper-now-demands-perrottet-20210723-p58cdf.html
    The federal government has secured an extra 85 million booster doses of the Pfizer vaccine for 2022 and 2023, as Australia’s top vaccine advisory group urged everyone in Sydney to get jabbed “with any available vaccine” due to a shortage of Pfizer doses. The lesson here is that if you actually ORDER something, it will come (usually) when promised.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-buys-pfizer-boosters-atagi-says-just-get-jabbed-20210723-p58cdh.html
    The current outbreak in Sydney may take months to recede, according to Guardian Australia analysis of Covid-19 waves across the OECD.
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2021/jul/25/sydney-covid-crisis-could-take-months-to-recede-if-other-outbreaks-are-to-go-by
    The SMH tells us that NSW Police have set up a strike force to track down more than 3500 protesters who breached coronavirus restrictions by marching on Sydney’s CBD on Saturday. Go get ‘em!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-do-not-consent-anti-lockdown-protesters-converge-on-sydney-s-cbd-20210724-p58cku.html
    And Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has hit out at thousands of lockdown protesters who descended on the CBD on Saturday, saying the crowd’s actions were antithetical to the “freedom” they were calling for.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/anti-lockdown-protesters-descend-on-downtown-melbourne-20210724-p58ckf.html
    Some young adults have taken it upon themselves to try and convince friends and family in group chats to get AstraZeneca, rather than wait for Pfizer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/join-the-az-club-the-under-40s-influencing-their-friends-to-get-the-jab-20210722-p58c2v.html
    “If Sky can put Jones’ dangerous stuff to air, what can’t you put on Australian TV?”, asks an angry Peter FitzSimons.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/if-sky-can-put-jones-dangerous-stuff-to-air-what-can-t-you-put-on-australian-tv-20210723-p58cgx.html
    Events have conspired to drive global supply chains towards breaking point, threatening the fragile flow of raw materials, parts and consumer goods, according to companies, economists and shipping specialists.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/perilous-moment-global-supply-chains-buckle-as-variants-and-disasters-strike-20210724-p58cjv.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons tells us that dozens of religious clergy and assistants have been granted travel exemptions to enter Australia during the covid international travel restrictions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/dozens-of-religious-clergy-and-assistants-granted-travel-exemptions-to-enter-australia-20210724-p58ciw.html
    While Australians are left struggling to leave the country on compassionate grounds, the Government turns a blind eye to celebrity transit, writes Max MacBride.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/double-standards-in-australian-travel-ban-crisis,15332
    The Brisbane Olympic Games deserve a gold medal for hyperbole when it comes to economic benefits, argues Greg Jericho.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/jul/25/the-brisbane-olympic-games-deserve-a-gold-medal-for-hyperbole-when-it-comes-to-economic-benefits
    This is not a good sign. Politicians and scientists in Britain are concerned that people are deleting the official COVID-19 mobile phone app, or at least switching off its tracing function, to avoid having to self-isolate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/scientists-worry-british-public-may-be-deleting-covid-app-to-avoid-isolating-20210724-p58cl8.html
    In this long essay, Nick Bryant, after eight years living in New York, tells us why he brought his family home from America.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/77-shootings-within-a-mile-of-home-why-our-family-left-america-20210623-p583p8.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Golding

    Matt Davidson

    Glen Le Lievre (gifs)
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1418803817378766848
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1418770558645272576

    From the US




  7. Sorry, wrong picture. 😳

    It was supposed to be one of some protesters carrying a sign saying:

    ‘We will not be censored
    We will not be silenced
    We will not be stopped’

    😆

  8. C@t
    I do still have the Clive Palmer junk around Will check it later and get back to you all. It sounds a plausible theory.

  11. Jacqueline Maley gets it about the blizzard of numbers wrt vaccination that Morrison, Hunt and Lars von Trier put out every day on behalf of the Liberal Party:

    We home schoolers have had to brush up on our arithmetic. Luckily, we have had some interesting lessons in mathematics from our federal leaders. Have you noticed the blizzards of statistics Morrison and Greg Hunt throw at us? A million doses administered a week; 30,000 lives saved. We have tripled the level of double-dose vaccinations.

    Morrison likes to include the numbers of people who have been vaccinated once. We also get stats about the people “eligible” to be vaccinated, disconnected from the experience of people who cannot secure appointments. All of these numbers bury the only one that will set us free – the rate of fully vaccinated people, which sits at 15 per cent.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/from-lockdown-our-horizons-keep-vanishing-but-look-is-that-an-apology-no-sorry-false-alarm-20210723-p58cef.html

  12. Australia has secured another 85 million doses of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine to be used as booster shots from next February – as all Sydneysiders over the age of 18 were urged to ‘strongly consider’ getting the AstraZeneca jab.

    The federal government said the supply deal with Pfizer-BioNTech will ensure every Australian can receive an additional booster shot on top of their initial two doses.

    The agreement includes 60 million doses of the jab arriving on Australian shores in the first quarter of 2022 and another 25 million in 2023.

    The timeline is based on evidence which suggests those who receive the Covid-19 vaccine will need a booster shot within a year of receiving their first two doses.

  14. There is a serious problem with the anti-vaxxer crowd because whilst it’s fine to be cautious about vaccines but some of the stuff these people believe is seriously weird but just where is this weird stuff coming from because it goes beyond the normal partisan political stuff you would expect and into something else.

  15. Australia has secured another 85 million doses of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine to be used as booster shots from next February – as all Sydneysiders over the age of 18 were urged to ‘strongly consider’ getting the AstraZeneca jab.

    So what is ‘wrong’ with AZ then Scotty ? Way cheaper , we make it here and you told us it is great mate, yet you order enough from Johnny Foreigner to do the entire country twice over. Anybody would think you have admitted to screwing up the first time around 😉

  17. NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet has demanded the federal government reinstate the JobKeeper payment as the number of new coronavirus cases in Sydney rose to 163 on Saturday, declaring “we need it now”.

    Mr Perrottet also said that getting Sydney school students back into classrooms was a top priority for the NSW government “not just for the kids’ sake – particularly those in year 12 – but also so parents who can work from home are able to”.

    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, both members of the Expenditure Review Committee of cabinet, confirmed to The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age discussions were being had about further financial assistance for Greater Sydney, depending on the trajectory of the current outbreak.

    However they cautioned there were no immediate plans to ramp up assistance.

    Mr Frydenberg said the federal government was conscious of the unpredictable nature of the Delta variant and “this requires us to undertake prudent contingency planning for a range of scenarios that arise in the weeks and months ahead”.

  18. We also get stats about the people “eligible” to be vaccinated,

    Oh goodie, ‘eligible’ is the new ‘offered’. Way back wee Ghunt told us how by October (?) everyone will have been ‘offered’ a vaccine.

  19. It’s the modern definition of moron.

    @DocAvvers
    12h
    So, the same sort of people who stormed the Capitol in Washington? Break the law; take selfies while breaking the law; post the selfies online after breaking the law.

  21. What Holden Hillbilly didn’t include was this statement of the reason why Frydenburg and Morrison won’t reinstate JobKeeper:

    “The government has a constant focus on how it manages all facets of the pandemic including this issue. We continue to roll out the programs that we currently have that are necessary, but also expensive,” he said.

    It’s too ‘expensive’. No it isn’t! It’s actually cheaper in the long run to pay out the money because it actually enables business to bounce back quicker and so there is less expenditure in the long run.

  22. lizzie,
    There seems to have been a direct connection with the US as well via the hierarchy who organised the ‘Freedom March’.

    And, isn’t it strange how the Black Lives Matter marchers were unable to get a permit to march in the city during the Covid outbreak but these clowns were?

  23. Morrison posted this 17 hours ago, allegedly to demonstrate he’s ‘on the job’ talking to,Samoa’s new PM. The personal photographer is also ‘on the job’..

    A unintended (sic) side benefit was to show off the Ashley&Martin’s investment, and the new wise grey image…

  24. Jacoby
    @adamajacoby

    If the relationship between QAnon, white supremacy, hillsong, conservative politicians and Murdoch media doesn’t concern you then you are not paying attention.

  25. C@t

    For the BLM march in Melbourne, there was a lot of negotiation over mask wearing (compulsory) and social distancing. I don’t know whether the police issued a permit, but the organisers took a very responsible attitude.

  27. From the smh

    Sydney’s Delta despair: what to do when a lockdown doesn’t work?
    The goal of driving cases down to zero has now been replaced by talk of ‘containing’ the virus and easing restrictions where possible.

    Uh, hello? They were talking this way just after a week in.

    And what makes you think “containing the virus with eased restrictions” is *easier*? It’s harder!

    Or impossible. Easing restrictions means giving up on containing the virus. Giving up is easier, I admit :P.

  30. C@T
    Its only after talking to people that believe the weird stuff do you realize how deep seated it is because i know hardcore religious people that are more level headed in what they believe than some of the weird stuff being pushed by this crowd.

  31. Sam Connor
    @criprights
    ·
    10h
    I have been an activist for many years.
    I teach activism at a university.
    I can tell you this.
    In Australia, there is no ‘right to protest’.

    If you carry out an act of protest that involves harm to the public, or a risk of harm to the public, it is an act of terrorism.

  32. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 8:05 am
    lizzie,
    There seems to have been a direct connection with the US as well via the hierarchy who organised the ‘Freedom March’.

    And, isn’t it strange how the Black Lives Matter marchers were unable to get a permit to march in the city during the Covid outbreak but these clowns were?
    ”

    Were they given permit to protest? I read somewhere that it is an unauthorized protest.

  34. NSW’s problem is that they have been doing ‘proportionate’ all this time, and are still doing it.

    They’ve gone harder when there are more cases and softer when fewer cases. Despite that, the areas in which they’ve gone softer have gone on to seed all the other areas.

  35. Ven @ #31 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 8:23 am

    ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 8:05 am
    lizzie,
    There seems to have been a direct connection with the US as well via the hierarchy who organised the ‘Freedom March’.

    And, isn’t it strange how the Black Lives Matter marchers were unable to get a permit to march in the city during the Covid outbreak but these clowns were?
    ”

    Were they given permit to protest? I read somewhere that it is an unauthorized protest.

    There’s no way they would have marched without a permit. Streets were closed, Police were on duty. None of that happens without a permit.

  38. Black Lives Matter marchers were unable to get a permit to march in the city during the Covid outbreak but these clowns were?

    “these clowns” were not, hence:

    NSW Police have set up a strike force to track down more than 3500 protesters who breached coronavirus restrictions by marching on Sydney’s CBD on Saturday

    and from the NSW Police yesterday:

    A high-visibility policing operation was launched in response to unauthorised protest activity

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/jul/24/covid-australia-live-news-updates-national-emergency-as-nsw-vaccine-request-rejected?page=with:block-60fb92428f08bb57f5f7e1bd#block-60fb92428f08bb57f5f7e1bd

  39. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 8:25 am
    Ven @ #31 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 8:23 am

    ”
    There’s no way they would have marched without a permit. Streets were closed, Police were on duty. None of that happens without a permit.

    ”

    What does ”
    Officers issued more than 90 infringement notices to people at the demonstration for breaching public health orders.” mean?

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100320620?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16271659409746&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2021-07-24%2Fanti-covid-lockdown-protest-in-sydney-cbd%2F100320620

  40. ‘There’s no way they would have marched without a permit. Streets were closed, Police were on duty. None of that happens without a permit.’

    At the NSW press conference that morning, it was stated repeatedly that there had been no permit issued.

    That the march was going to happen was obvious.

  42. Cat:

    A peruse through the various signs being held at those marches is really telling. Lots of religious nutters, anti-vaxxers, Q-natics, and the more vintage conspiracies like chem-trails got an airing too.

  45. Will Scotty and Glad do another Scotty today?

    Maybe if there’s been a fall off in testing numbers over the weekend Berejiklian can come out and talk about “green shoots” (that no one else can see) again … that’ll work a treat.

  47. ”
    zoomstersays:
    Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 8:29 am
    ‘There’s no way they would have marched without a permit. Streets were closed, Police were on duty. None of that happens without a permit.’

    At the NSW press conference that morning, it was stated repeatedly that there had been no permit issued.

    That the march was going to happen was obvious.
    ”

    However if someone says there is less police force than required at the voilent protest I will tend to agree with that sentiment because most of the police were concentrated in SW and Western Sydney to control people in those who may “breach public health orders”

  48. Jackol @ #38 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 8:28 am

    Black Lives Matter marchers were unable to get a permit to march in the city during the Covid outbreak but these clowns were?

    “these clowns” were not, hence:

    NSW Police have set up a strike force to track down more than 3500 protesters who breached coronavirus restrictions by marching on Sydney’s CBD on Saturday

    So, how come the streets were closed so they could march and the Mounted Police were detailed, along with other Police to monitor the march?

  49. Mexicanbeemer @ #29 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 8:18 am

    C@T
    Its only after talking to people that believe the weird stuff do you realize how deep seated it is because i know hardcore religious people that are more level headed in what they believe than some of the weird stuff being pushed by this crowd.

    Like Greensborough Growler. A Catholic through and through. Not a nutter.

  50. How not to get out of lockdown.

    Rohan Smith
    @Ro_Smith
    BREAKING: Two horse punching protesters charged. One 33yo man from Surry Hills and one 36yo man from Edensor Park were refused bail to appear in court today.
    @newscomauHQ

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