Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Another poll showing federal Labor with a lead fuelled by big swings in Queensland and Western Australia.

Roy Morgan maintained its erratic ways on Friday by publishing results from its regularly conducted federal polling for the first time in a month, which is likely to be the last federal voting intention poll for over a fortnight. The results are broadly in line with polling elsewhere in showing Labor with a lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%.

The state breakdowns are also fairly similar to the last Newspoll quarterly aggregate, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales (a swing of a bit over 2% from the 2019 election, half a point more than Newspoll), 56-44 in Victoria (a swing of nearly 3%, compared with next to no change in Newspoll), 52.5-47.5 in Western Australia (an 8% swing, half a point less than Newspoll), 51-49 in South Australia (next to no swing, compared with around 3% in Newspoll) and 58-42 from the small Tasmanian sample (a 2% swing), while the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a 7% swing, 1.5% more than Newspoll).

The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2737 over the last two weekends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  2. “Black Lives Matter marchers were unable to get a permit to march in the city during the Covid outbreak but these clowns were?”

    BLM got a permit once and did not on another occasion

  3. I heard an interesting observation on ABC News Radio this morning where the person said that the people of Sydney had invested so much time, resources and emption on the ineffective lockdown that their frustrations might affect the harder lockdown’s effects.

  5. Asha Leu @ #42 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 8:31 am

    Cat:

    A peruse through the various signs being held at those marches is really telling. Lots of religious nutters, anti-vaxxers, Q-natics, and the more vintage conspiracies like chem-trails got an airing too.

    This was my favourite:

    ‘We will not be censored
    We will not be silenced
    We will not be stopped’

    A really, really big sign being freely carried by protesters who were not silenced or stopped. 😀

  6. BK

    I heard that, too, on ABC TV. He’s a medico who comments frequently. I thought it was a good point, that they’re frustrated with no result for their efforts so are becoming uncooperative.

  9. I wonder what stance on Sydney’s parlous position the Murdoch stooge, James Campbell, will bring to Insiders this morning.

  10. ”
    BKsays:
    Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 8:47 am
    I heard an interesting observation on ABC News Radio this morning where the person said that the people of Sydney had invested so much time, resources and emption on the ineffective lockdown that their frustrations might affect the harder lockdown’s effects.
    ”

    BK
    That person is Dr. Chris Moi, Vice President of Australian Medical Association, who lives in Adelaide.

  13. As someone is apt to say….
    everything they touch….

    At some stage it will dawn on the lucky country that it finds itself in a pickle…
    and perhaps we should appoint someone to lead us to a better place…..
    and that person doesn’t play on his phone in a nice new jumper…..
    while the proletariat are becoming restless ……
    concerned, worried, panicky, frightened perhaps?

    The last election ….. hindsight!

    Someone needs to take a person, adorned in a new jumper, aside, and tell him that Covid 19 is bad and you have made many lives worse as you are selfishly entertaining your political future…..

  17. To be more precise the BLM got one of its permits in New South Wales because the police mucked up the paperwork opposing it

  18. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 8:50 am
    shellbell @ #53 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 8:47 am

    “Black Lives Matter marchers were unable to get a permit to march in the city during the Covid outbreak but these clowns were?”

    BLM got a permit once and did not on another occasion

    I knew that. I should have been clearer.

    Lawyers. Sheesh!
    ”

    Am I correct in assuming that shellbell is more lawyer than political analyst and AE is more political operative than lawyer? 🙂

  19. zoomster @ #65 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 8:56 am

    C@

    Not sure why you’re dying in a ditch over this one, but here’s an article which has Berejilklian making a couple of references to ‘unauthorised protest’.

    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/wild-scenes-as-sydney-antilockdown-protesters-clash-with-police/news-story/e5b47e5103e55a7c6ebd1eb6d0094a78

    As I said, there was similar language used at yesterday’s presser.

    And Teachers. Sheesh! 😀

  22. Holdenhillbilly @ #44 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 8:40 am

    Victoria 11 new cases all in quarantine.

    Thanks to all Victorians staying at home. Good people.

    To those freedom warriors being public health menaces, I’m happy to give VicPol the FREEDOM to use water cannon and rubber bullets.

    I have run out of tolerance for these extremists.

  23. ”
    lizziesays:
    Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 8:56 am
    Ven

    He appears often and I apologise that I never remember his name.
    ”

    There is nothing to apologize.

  24. The protest organisers and supporters appear to be the anti-woke, anti-PC, unintelligentsia

    Those who suddenly and selfishly arrive at the belief that human rights count for something, or at least form a useful excuse, despite ignoring anyone else raising actual genuine and legitimate concerns for years


  26. BK says:
    Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 8:47 am

    I heard an interesting observation on ABC News Radio this morning where the person said that the people of Sydney had invested so much time, resources and emption on the ineffective lockdown that their frustrations might affect the harder lockdown’s effects.

    Another reason to go hard and early. People don’t get as fed up with a short solid lock-down.

    Victoria has been through what Sydney is suffering while we learnt partial lock downs don’t work. It took the Vic government days, not weeks to work it out.

    At his stage of our stuff-up brought about because Vic government didn’t knew partial lock downs didn’t work, we had a night curfew to unscramble the egg.

    If NSW doesn’t change course they will soon have over-run hospitals and all that brings.

  28. Not happy with the way Speers is emphasising “other states rejection” of NSW appeal for more doses. They have their own problems, it’s Morrison’s fault.

  29. cat,

    I don’t pretend to be crowd control expert. But, 3500 protestors to the Police about 400 is not an equal balance of force in yesterday’s situation. I doubt the police were prepared for the size of the the turn out (although they had some notice). I’d also contend that with CC videos and social media vids the police will be in a strong position to identify, find and prosecute many more participants.

  30. cat –

    So, how come the streets were closed so they could march and the Mounted Police were detailed, along with other Police to monitor the march?

    What the police said yesterday:

    A high-visibility policing operation was launched in response to unauthorised protest activity in Sydney’s CBD about 12pm today (Saturday 24 July 2021), to ensure the safety of participants, as well as the community and local businesses.
    …
    The NSW Police Force recognises and supports the rights of individuals and groups to exercise their rights of free speech and peaceful assembly, however, today’s protest is in breach of the current Covid-19 public health orders.

    The priority for NSW police is always the safety of the wider community.

    So, the protest was unauthorized, but the police didn’t choose, or weren’t ordered, to take up batons and disperse the crowds (if that’s what you were suggesting should have happened). The wording, and what happened, seems to make it clear that the police knew the protest was going to happen and that the police were operating on some principle of keeping the peace for now and trying to protect everyone as much as possible.

    Clearly there’s a different (and probably unfair) standard applied to small groups vs large groups, but when you have thousands of people gathered you can’t just deploy a few coppers to ‘move them along’ trivially. And also, no doubt unfairly, a genuinely peaceful protest may well receive different treatment compared to an unstable, rowdy protest, simply because the former is probably going to obey police directives while the latter will just incite biffo.

    Regardless, there’s no indication that these protesters received a permit for the protest.

  33. It appears to me that the March was unauthorised – lots of commentators including the Premier have said so. The Police had probably made a pragmatic decision to monitor and contain the march (so closing off streets, etc) rather than go all-out confronting the protesters. We don’t want or need running battles in the streets, US-style. Handing out lots $1000 fines might be more effective.

  34. Thread
    https://twitter.com/ChristiaanVanV/status/1418941209507155975

    RonniSalt Retweeted

    Christiaan Van Vuuren @ChristiaanVanV
    ·

    Many otherwise normal people don’t believe scientists and the “intelligencia” because they’ve been programmed not to, via years of targeted misinformation campaigns designed specifically to gaslight people into thinking that everything’s fine and to continue business as usual.

    8h
    The spreading of misinformation and fake research from the fossil fuel industry re: climate change has completely mind-fucked the western world and made people incapable of deciphering truth, leaving us in the worst possible scenario to deal with a global pandemic of this scale.

    8h
    Many otherwise normal people don’t believe scientists and the “intelligencia” because they’ve been programmed not to, via years of targeted misinformation campaigns designed specifically to gaslight people into thinking that everything’s fine and to continue business as usual.

    8h
    These campaigns have been strategised not by some global elite or satanic cabal of baby-eating pedos, but by PTY LTD companies with targets to hit and economic growth that has been promised to investors, despite the changing climate.

    8h
    They are not organised in secret or put together by bloodline obsessed cultists, they are simply businesspeople, brands, marketers, strategists and advertisers doing what they do best to spin data to look good for companies and investors who demand growth from a dying sector.

    8h
    And all supported by (or if not given wind to) political systems that have allowed corporate money to become part of the way that our western democracies work. Party donations pay for elections, therefor parties inadvertently keep donors happy.

    8h
    How we come out of this while keeping modern democracy in tact is anyone’s guess… My guess is (like in any relationship where trust is broken) we need a big fucking reset and a genuine, conscious effort to rebuild that trust with people.

    8h
    One day historians will look back on this, and when this pandemic goes on to kill millions more than it should have, they will point to this misinformation as being what allowed the virus to thrive. It’s a pity for our most vulnerable that they won’t get to see that day.

    —-

    Yep corporatized politics sold out to fossil fuel interests have been fostering misinformation and BS, cause you know it’s all ‘teh Greenies’ fault

  35. ‘Quoll says:
    Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:02 am

    The protest organisers and supporters appear to be the anti-woke, anti-PC, unintelligentsia

    Those who suddenly and selfishly arrive at the belief that human rights count for something, or at least form a useful excuse, despite ignoring anyone else raising actual genuine and legitimate concerns for years…
    …’
    _________________________________________________
    Some good points there, IMO.

    In this context I recall related Bludger conversations about left demos on extinction ‘rebellion’ and BLM – also during the pandemic. Inter alia, veteran protestor posters such as myself were scorned about how we thought ‘It was never the right time’ to demonstrate.

  36. I am somewhat frustrated by the lack of behavioural insight being displayed by the NSW government. Optimise the use of their exisiting resource here: https://www.nsw.gov.au/behavioural-insights-unit

    Rather than using them to nudge desired behaviour after decisions are made, the NSW crisis cabinet should seek their advice as part of the decision-making process. If they already are, they should listen more! They might realise that the variation in restrictions has created immense frustration and is resulting in antisocial behaviour. Consumers typically adhere to social norms and are concerned about fairness.

    The market is inefficient as it isn’t just vaccines that is a scarce resource at present, it is freedom. And when people see others being afforded more freedom, trouble ensues.

  37. Coming back to C@t

    I found one of the Clive Palmer leaflets and it mentions thetruthaboutcovidvaccines.com
    I thought I still had both in case they were wanted by local pollies etc but could only find one

  39. In this context I recall related Bludger conversations about left demos on extinction ‘rebellion’ and BLM – also during the pandemic. Inter alia, veteran protestor posters such as myself were scorned about how we thought ‘It was never the right time’ to demonstrate.

    Yes I can recall being criticised strongly by PB’s Greens brigade for suggesting the BLM protests were not the best timing.

  40. Party donations pay for elections, therefor parties inadvertently keep donors happy

    Maybe that should be “advertently”.

  41. BK1 at 8:47 am

    I heard an interesting observation on ABC News Radio this morning where the person said that the people of Sydney had invested so much time, resources and emption on the ineffective lockdown that their frustrations might affect the harder lockdown’s effects.

    Orrr they were told endlessly that their piss weak trainer wheels of a lock down was sooo hard and sooo tough , their press providing plenty of tales from ‘wailers’, that when it came to the real(ish) deal they ‘snowflaked’ ?

  42. I thought Lenore Taylor made some good points about diverting vaccine resources to NSW. I admit that I’ve oscillated from opposed to this to being open to the concept.

  43. Now Sheridan joins the conga line of Murdoch hacks demanding freedom for Covid to run rampant.

    In land of the Delta Blues, Covid zero is no longer king

    There is no guarantee that NSW will be able to succeed in putting the Delta genie back in the bottle. How we live with this virus is a painful discussion that the nation must have.

    GREG SHERIDAN
    Foreign Editor

  45. Hubris is everywhere. I have heard of some locals saying SA is licking the virus because SA people are better at following rules etc and then those same people break the rules – siting ‘common sense’.

    I have also heard that people who were supposed to be at high risk exposures sites have not come forward for testing and there are still discrepancies between QR code and Credit card attendances at some of these sites.

    And! There was a chap at the local takeaway standing unmasked inside waiting for his order. Tosser.

    I have said it before… don’t underestimate luck and patriotically overestimate good behaviour and management in how outbreaks evolve. Marshall is on track to open up come Tuesday but if the group keep their sensible hats on, taking into account the incubation period etc, they will keep some fairly restrictive measures in place. Masks indoors would be one.

  46. Morrison “not stubborn” on policy positions.

    Translation: he’s a weathervane, changing his position according to public opinion.

  48. Tarang / तरंग
    @tarang_chawla
    ·
    13h
    I HAVE A LAW DEGREE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE AND ADVOCATE FOR VICTIMS RIGHTS . IF YOU HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOCKDOWN BY THE GOVERNMENT AND YOU WOULD LIKE TO EXPLORE LEGAL OPTIONS TO PROTECT YOUR HUMAN RIGHTS, I AM HAPPY TO HELP EXPLAIN JUST HOW IGNORANT YOU ARE.

  49. Again from Murdoch’s Oz – Morrison claiming gazillions more Pfizer doses sometime.

    PM secures 85m extra Pfizer jabs, Premier fumes

    Scott Morrison secures extra Pfizer doses for delivery from next year, NSW offered 50,000 more jabs, as Premier is left ‘disgusted’ by protest chaos.

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