Roy Morgan maintained its erratic ways on Friday by publishing results from its regularly conducted federal polling for the first time in a month, which is likely to be the last federal voting intention poll for over a fortnight. The results are broadly in line with polling elsewhere in showing Labor with a lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%.
The state breakdowns are also fairly similar to the last Newspoll quarterly aggregate, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales (a swing of a bit over 2% from the 2019 election, half a point more than Newspoll), 56-44 in Victoria (a swing of nearly 3%, compared with next to no change in Newspoll), 52.5-47.5 in Western Australia (an 8% swing, half a point less than Newspoll), 51-49 in South Australia (next to no swing, compared with around 3% in Newspoll) and 58-42 from the small Tasmanian sample (a 2% swing), while the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a 7% swing, 1.5% more than Newspoll).
The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2737 over the last two weekends.
Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup.
“The agreement includes 60 million doses of the jab arriving on Australian shores in the first quarter of 2022 and another 25 million in 2023.”
This is a strong indication that Morrison is now putting back an election to May 2022, hoping everyone will be vaccinated by then and boosters freely available will show him to be competent. He hopes the average punter will forget this year and the 2019 bushfires.
Professor Blakely’s modelling in July 2020 said Victoria was certain to be out of covid (< 5 cases) by end of September 2020.
https://www.mja.com.au/system/files/2020-07/Blakely%20mja20.01292%20-%2017%20July%202020.pdf
S777
That’s just another way of saying that “proportionate” only works (is well defined) as long as contact tracing keeps on top of things. Otherwise it’s ill-defined. Once you have unknown people spreading it around before you can get to them, you know the spread will accelerate.
At that point there’s no reason not to admit you’ve lost control and lock down everywhere the virus might be. You’re going to end up there anyway.
Kind of noblesse oblige that NSW still continues to bear the disproportionate responsibility for returnees including the stranded.
One to note for future reference.
A lot of straight shooting from Shorten this morning.
Meanwhile Shorten is hitting it out of the park.
It seems to me Speers doesn’t interrupt as much when his interviewee is in person compared to via video.
Larvae turned into exploding virus bombs… what could possibly go wrong?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-07-25/fall-army-worm/100306548
BK says:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:33 am
A lot of straight shooting from Shorten this morning.
Well he did have trouble with persistent ( leadership) denial smile..
Edit.. I’m embarrassed to be with Provan on this
I won’t happen of course.
GladysB supported Morrison and rejected the need for purpose built quarantine as Qld Vic and WA had asked.
If this wasn’t a political motivated stance what was.
Shorten was a breath of fresh air this morning!
Socrates:
This is a strong indication that Morrison is now putting back an election to May 2022, hoping everyone will be vaccinated by then and boosters freely available will show him to be competent. He hopes the average punter will forget this year and the 2019 bushfires.
We are all hoping, I think, that the northern summer isn’t a harbinger of an even worse 2021-22 Australian bushfire season that helps us remember 2019-2020 all too well, and I say this someone who loathes Morrison.
In other words, the emphasis should be on contact tracing, not on proportionality. It’s a “contact tracing strategy” not a “proportionate strategy”. The latter follows if you have the former. You don’t have the latter once the former has failed.
‘citizen says:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:17 am
Now Sheridan joins the conga line of Murdoch hacks demanding freedom for Covid to run rampant.
In land of the Delta Blues, Covid zero is no longer king
There is no guarantee that NSW will be able to succeed in putting the Delta genie back in the bottle. How we live with this virus is a painful discussion that the nation must have.
GREG SHERIDAN
Foreign Editor’
______________________________
Sheridan means how we die with the Virus. He also means how we enjoy Long Covid with the Virus.
Well, he’s hardly likely to say – yeah yeah of course I want to top job, you heard it here Speersy.
Morrison will be hedging his bets. If he sees an immediate opportunity, he will take it. Meanwhile he is preparing for the long journey.
Other than that he has learned from his current fuck up. Someone jas told him we are going to need boosters so he has ordered a ship load of boosters.
Better late than never.
Interesting to see that ‘risk’ is getting a run in the public policy discussion.
At last.
Morrison is like vinegar, after Shorten.
Quoll says:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:09 am
Many otherwise normal people don’t believe scientists and the “intelligencia” because they’ve been programmed not to, via years of targeted misinformation campaigns designed specifically to gaslight people into thinking that everything’s fine and to continue business as usual.
Yup. I think of some Green-active friends of mine who are anti-vax. They’re pathologically anti-stuff. It’s not possible to reason with them. It’s inadvisable to try.
”
Confessionssays:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:16 am
I thought Lenore Taylor made some good points about diverting vaccine resources to NSW. I admit that I’ve oscillated from opposed to this to being open to the concept.
”
I found that Lenore Taylor and Laura Tingle most of the time seem to provide a cogent point of view and argument.
Ven:
Yes, both are among the best press gallery journalists in the country.
Campbell says ‘a trust deficit in politicians..’ failing to add ‘a trust deficit in Murdoch media..’
For those interested ScoMo is supposed to be on the Project tonight.
Probably pre-recorded as I doubt they would be able to flush him out on a weekend.
I’m struggling to understand what ATAGI should have done differently. It looks at data, weighs risk balance, and gives advice. Calling it gospel is what happens when the Government scapegoats it as the be all and end all.
boerwar says:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:42 am
Interesting to see that ‘risk’ is getting a run in the public policy discussion.
At last.
And shorten answered the answer well, will people die? “We can reduce the risk”.
Fess
What did Lenore say re vax to NSW?
I’m anti stuff. Stuff stuff!
So, the Oz story about Shorten was a timed plant to ensure that the entirety of his responses on Insiders was about Labor leadershit.
Australia is an island. It’s possible to be covid-free. It would “cost” a lot less – in every sense – to run a covid-free population than a covid-infected one
Other states should not be diverting their fair share of Pfizer to NSW. That is completely unfair.
NSW have plenty of AZ supply to get their people vaccinated.
shellbell says:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:31 am
Professor Blakely’s modelling in July 2020 said Victoria was certain to be out of covid (……………………………………….
Thank you for the link.
What should be needless to say is that the July 2020 paper did NOT state there was any certainty that a 6 week lockdown would work.
Why you would misrepresent it’s conclusion is interesting.
‘ItzaDream says:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:49 am
I’m struggling to understand what ATAGI should have done differently. It looks at data, weighs risk balance, and gives advice. Calling it gospel is what happens when the Government scapegoats it as the be all and end all.’
_______________________________
ATAGI did not get across the notion that the risk-return changes dramatically once the Virus is on the loose inside the community. In this respect ATAGI was undermined by the MSM, by shock jocks, by Sky, and by politicians.
Simon Katich @ #125 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 9:49 am
She said it was in the national interest to get the outbreak in Sydney under control, therefore it is important that NSW receive vaccines from other states.
Prof. Peter Doherty
@ProfPCDoherty
·
33m
#Insiders Any vaccine won’t have an effect for at least 2-4 weeks. Hindsight is useless, but NSW needs to lock down now as hard and aggressively as Victoria has done.
Confessions @ #133 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 9:53 am
I think she should perhaps embrace AZ rather than rob other states of their Pfizer.
With all the lead times for injections and the organisational structure needed to “get them into arms”, it’s not so simple to suddenly give a load to another State, unless there is a full store cupboard somewhere. Scotty might have one.
boerwar says:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:52 am
…..
ATAGI did not get across the notion that the risk-return changes dramatically once the Virus is on the loose inside the community. In this respect ATAGI was undermined by the MSM, by shock jocks, by Sky, and by politicians.
What ATAGI didn’t take into account was the risk that the Virus would escape and the NSW response would be inadequate.
Sceptic
It takes somebody with the respect and gravitas of Peter Doherty to bring the vaccination push for Sydney into stark focus.
Bloody hell sounds like Insiders was a horrible show.
Someone jas told him we are going to need boosters so he has ordered a ship load of boosters.
Better late than never.
Well, he’s announced that he has ordered a ship load of boosters.
Great Insiders today – also nice to hear from a competent politican who unfortunately is in opposition.
At last. Lenore mentions the Freedom March.
”
frednksays:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:49 am
boerwar says:
Sunday, July 25, 2021 at 9:42 am
Interesting to see that ‘risk’ is getting a run in the public policy discussion.
At last.
And shorten answered the answer well, will people die? “We can reduce the risk”.
”
That is the reason why Speers did not press it any further.
It will be interesting to see how LNP, Larse, Buce, Taylormade and Recon will interpret it to get the blood pressure of a lot of PBers to raise. 🙂
Geez Bill shot out of the gates this morning…bit a glint in the eye…
Sceptic @ #136 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 7:55 am
Yep, the vaccine debate just takes the focus off NSW response to the current outbreak.
They are two completely different issues and vaccinations have no impact on what NSW should be doing now to contain the outbreak.
boerwar @ #132 Sunday, July 25th, 2021 – 9:52 am
“ATAGI did not get across the notion that the risk-return changes dramatically”
I don’t agree. We don’t know what goes on a ATAGI meetings. But, Risk/Benefit is exactly what they look at, and that it changes is a given.
(Disclaimer, I know one member of ATAGI to some extent, and her husband I know very well.)
Fanatics.
This Atagi advice should be a bit of a hint to all but the dim about what has ‘changed’ and where.
I was very disappointed when Campbell said that he thought any more financial assistance would probably go to small business. I fear he’s right and that’s not where it’s most needed.
NSW demanding other States give up vaccines for them might be palatable if NSW put the ring of steel around Sydney and invested more heavily in reducing interactions between people.