Roy Morgan maintained its erratic ways on Friday by publishing results from its regularly conducted federal polling for the first time in a month, which is likely to be the last federal voting intention poll for over a fortnight. The results are broadly in line with polling elsewhere in showing Labor with a lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%.
The state breakdowns are also fairly similar to the last Newspoll quarterly aggregate, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales (a swing of a bit over 2% from the 2019 election, half a point more than Newspoll), 56-44 in Victoria (a swing of nearly 3%, compared with next to no change in Newspoll), 52.5-47.5 in Western Australia (an 8% swing, half a point less than Newspoll), 51-49 in South Australia (next to no swing, compared with around 3% in Newspoll) and 58-42 from the small Tasmanian sample (a 2% swing), while the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a 7% swing, 1.5% more than Newspoll).
The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2737 over the last two weekends.
Didn’t Abbott index Newstart, moving it away from a % of AWME?
I think they tried to do it with the Pension as well, but that failed.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1350 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 7:08 pm
Really?
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2020/August/Pension_and_JobSeeker_indexation
“I find it difficult to cope with the fact that the Greens, who seem to believe in their moral superiority, are so willing to act in a way that will return the most corrupt government we have seen for some time. I am very disappointed in them.”
***
Don’t know how you figure that, considering almost all of us will preference Labor ahead of the Coalition, as we always do. You just don’t like Labor being held accountable. Bad Coalition policies should not be supported and Labor should be called out when they support them, which happens frequently.
I find it odd that some of you are so quick to defend Labor when they support terrible Coalition policies and I find it unfathomable that someone wouldn’t care what policies Labor supports and only cares about winning an election.
As for the corrupt government, it’s a shame Labor teamed up with them before they came to power to block the Greens’ ICAC. We had a chance to set one up during the Gillard Gov and had the numbers to do so if only Labor had supported the Greens, but instead they teamed up with the future “most corrupt government” to avoid accountability.
Bit of history of Newstart
“In March 1994, the Keating government increased Newstart by $2.95 a week above the rate of inflation.
No one knew back then, but this would be the last time Newstart was raised in real terms. ”
https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2019/11/a-sad-and-sorry-history-of-newstart/
This is the same argument as always.
Labor work out a set of realisable outcomes* given the political situation (e.g. with the Coalition setting the agenda). They then choose out of those. The Greens skip the step of working out realisable outcomes and simply point to their ideal outcome, ignoring what the actual outcome of that act of pointing will be.
It often seems that, to the Greens, being able to say “I pointed at this” (and depending on the issue, sometimes “Labor didn’t”) is more important than the actual outcome.
* Not saying they always get this correct, btw.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1355 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 7:19 pm
Until this last increase.
@Barney in Tanjung Bunga
Well I take it all back, happy to be corrected.
Pensions are indexed twice a year to account for increases in living costs and benchmarked against average wage inflation. The first step in the process is to assess CPI change over a six-month period. To do this, government uses the highest of the following two inflation calculations, either:
the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – which is a measure of changes in the prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services, or
the Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index (PBLCI) – which measures the effect of price changes on the out-of-pocket living expenses experienced by households whose main source of income is government payment
Previously, most pensions were indexed twice each year (on 20 March and 20 September) by the greater of the movement in the CPI or the Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index (PBLCI). They are then ‘benchmarked’ against a percentage of Male Total Average Weekly Earnings (MTAWE). The combined couple rate is benchmarked to 41.76 per cent of MTAWE; the single rate of pension is set at 66.33 per cent of the combined couple rate (which is equal to around 27.7 per cent of MTAWE). ‘Benchmarked’ means that after it has been indexed, the combined couple rate is checked to see whether it is equal to or higher than 41.76 per cent of MTAWE.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1358 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 7:24 pm
The main problem was that it was indexed to the CPI and not wage growth, that is why the disparity has occurred.
Asha Leu @ #1110 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 7:54 pm
And neither do The Greens nor the Liberal Party/LNP/CLP/Nationals care. All they care about, and they are on a unity ticket there, is that Labor don’t get elected. We know that about the Coalition, but The Greens’ ideological zealot, Firefox, admitted as much tonight. He’d rather a Coalition government was elected than a Labor government that refuses to tug the forelock to The Greens. All the bleating by The Greens between now and the federal election about how ‘Labor should’… and Same Same, is meaningless now that we know that. They have no principles either.
Richard Willingham
@rwillingham
·
1m
Vic School kids set to get back in the classroom from Wednesday
@abcmelbourne
hospitality and retail to reopen with strict density limits. Masks remain. Conservative approach to easing lockdown. Final details to end thrashed out in the morning ahead of lunchtime announcement.
kezza2 @ #1154 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 9:04 pm
Disappointing. However, he has skin in the game which might be influencing his pov.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Monday, July 26, 2021 at 9:27 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1358 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 7:24 pm
@Barney in Tanjung Bunga
Well I take it all back, happy to be corrected.
The main problem was that it was indexed to the CPI and not wage growth, that is why the disparity has occurred.
————-
And also split from the various pensions. Being objective, the most recent increase is pretty decent in sphere of things. The ALP certainly didn’t cover themselves with glory on the issue when they could have in the 2007-13 period just ran dead on it.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1364 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 7:33 pm
But it’s just a one off increase, so it doesn’t address the underlying problem.
No doubt that no Government has covered themselves in glory on the issue. It has been well understood for quite awhile now.
“We know that about the Coalition, but The Greens’ ideological zealot, Firefox, admitted as much tonight. He’d rather a Coalition government was elected than a Labor government that refuses to tug the forelock to The Greens.”
***
Haha, oh dear Cat, you calling someone else an “ideological zealot” is a bit rich. I am proud to be passionate about the Greens and left wing progressive politics though. And I never said anything of the sort lol. In fact, I made the point above that almost all Greens, including myself, will preference Labor ahead of the Coalition.
What I want is a Green/Labor power-sharing government so that we can keep Labor on track, prevent them from siding with the Liberals, and work with them to implement good progressive left wing policies instead, just as we did the last time Labor was in government federally.
The real founders of PB
Richard Willingham
@rwillingham
·
22m
Home visits still off limits
Show this thread
Richard Willingham
@rwillingham
·
24m
Vic School kids set to get back in the classroom from Wednesday
@abcmelbourne
hospitality and retail to reopen with strict density limits. Masks remain. Conservative approach to easing lockdown. Final details to end thrashed out in the morning ahead of lunchtime announcement.
I’m not interested in these TIRESOME, POINTLESS and EXHAUSTING Labor v Green fish-slapping dances.
As a Labor voter in the ACT (especially with evil Hare-Clark) I accept that the Greens are a natural part of the governing ecosystem here.
It’s obvious that the Greens’ goal is to draw enough support away from Labor to force it into a “power-sharing deal” and draw concessions. Of course, the Gillard Government did deliver policies that far exceeded the Rudd Government. But, as a Labor voter, I want stable majority government that isn’t undermined by deaths, resignations and personal whims. Every seat the Greens target and take from Labor makes the task of winning Government harder, in any way. Diverting resources to defend seats that could go to win seats from the coalition we need to form a progressive government, is frustrating to me. But Labor doesn’t have a right to any seat, and we need to make the case to voters.
But that’s democracy – I don’t have to LIKE the Greens’ House strategy, but I have to respect it. They’re a political party like any other and need to figure out how they can win and gain influence.
What I want is a Green/Labor power-sharing government so that we can keep Labor on track, prevent them from siding with the Liberals, and work with them to implement good progressive left wing policies instead, just as we did the last time Labor was in government federally.
Excuse me if I ROFL, Firefox. You seem to have forgotten how The Greens ‘keeping Labor on track’, between 2010 and 2013, led irrevocably to the last 8 years of the Coalition.
So, thanks for the kind offer, but Labor will just have your preferences thanks.
There is rumors that there will be more protests around Australia from the same dickheads – Scotty needs to call the Army.
C@t
Yeah, I knew he had skin in the game. That’s why it’s a disappointment. Does he think Shorten’s going to give up his baby?
Zerlo @ #1371 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 7:56 pm
We don’t use our military like that.
Zerlo – Scotty needs to call the Army.
Only to protect the populace from the the dickheads.
Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Monday, July 26, 2021 at 9:58 pm
The police did fuck all either.
First off it was illegal protesting, secondly, they acted violently including punching a police horse.
kezza2says:
Monday, July 26, 2021 at 10:00 pm
Exactly.
Zerlo @ #1375 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 8:01 pm
They managed the situation with the resources they had and continue to deal with the people who attended.
They kept the idiots separated from the general population.
Hard to see how they could have dealt with it much better, or are you just disappointed they didn’t charge in with batons, tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons?
“You seem to have forgotten how The Greens ‘keeping Labor on track’, between 2010 and 2013, led irrevocably to the last 8 years of the Coalition.”
***
Ah yes, of course, it was all the Greens’ fault. Had nothing to do with Rudd and Gillard spending three years destroying each other. Nothing at all! In fact, that never even happened!
*facepalm*
ONLY
I would be more tolerant of a covid demonstration if it was mainstream, and expressed genuine losses and fears of small business etc, and some or lots of anger at govt who lead to this situation. No idea why commandered by mob who did it (the demonstration I meant, not government)
Imagine covid topic covered thoroughly here but what is update on estimates of length, and case nos, in short term future?
was talking to a contact – senior academic – who thinks strong possibility civilization will end in three years with 10-15% population loss from mid term vaccine effect (protein spikes etc).
second and booster jabs are danger – evidence will come forth from later in year
I don’t have time to consider but so much in all directions to cause one to draw breath
Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Monday, July 26, 2021 at 10:06 pm
The resources they had? lol lol lol
There is rumors that there will be more protests around Australia from the same dickheads – Scotty needs to call the Army.
Yeah nah. That’s not how we do it around these parts.
why do labor in nsw and federal seem so mushy and on back foot at present
why does albo seems so easily wedged
is albo just too pacifist by nature for role?
where is chris m?
if they can’t cut through at present what hope is there?
(sorry if this all discussed ad nauseum)
zerlo @ #1381 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 8:13 pm
So, how would you have had them deal with it?
Interesting, isn’t it. Appealing for people to dob others in.
Does this mean Australia doesn’t have face recognition technology?
Similarly, the attack on the US Capitol. Does this mean the USA doesn’t have face recognition technology?
Yet, what about “Leave No Dark Corner” and so-called Social Credit?
what is collective prognosis here amongst esteemed commentators about length of lockdown, effectiveness and case nos?
Firefox2 @ #1184 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 10:09 pm
You can try to minimise the effect on people of an unstable Minority Government all you like, but it wasn’t simply Rudd and Gillard that the electorate came to despise, it was The Greens too and the controlling effect they had with such minimal representation in the House. The Greens crowing about it really pissed people off as well. But hey, rewrite history all you like, it doesn’t amount to a hill of mung beans. Labor don’t need The Greens, nor want them as part of some unicorn government built by The Greens in their enclaves in the inner city, tree change and coastal sea change areas of Australia. Labor will govern on their own and The Greens can stick their entirely predictable election time demand to govern with Labor (because they realise they can NEVER govern alone), into a cocked hat where it belongs.
Don’t mind your preferences though.
kezza2 @ #1385 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 8:16 pm
Just look at how well it works in a controlled environment.
Stand on the line.
Take off your glasses.
Look straight ahead.
Oh, sorry! Try again.
It’s largely science fiction at the moment in uncontrolled spaces.
“So, thanks for the kind offer, but Labor will just have your preferences thanks.”
***
Actually this attitude reminds me of how Albo recently parroted Billy Shorten’s comments before the last election. Remember when RDN offered to work with Shorten, Bill refused and bragged that he was going to be “leading a Labor government”, then went on to become Australia’s very own Lindsey Jacobellis?
hungry jack @ #1386 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 8:18 pm
Xmas dinners are going to be small intimate affairs.
kezza2 @ #1178 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 9:57 pm
There’s no way Labor generally will allow the Coalition to kill the world-leading program for the Disabled that Bill Shorten created.
And hasn’t the Black Wiggle sunk without a trace? 😀
hungry jack @ #1389 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 10:18 pm
Referring to NSW? Their lockdown isn’t effective enough. Didn’t even get a weekend lull this time. Non-isolated cases are climbing. The recent protests will likely make this worse; we’ll see in a week or so.
The length looks to be indefinite if current restrictions aren’t tightened. Although “indefinite” probably means “until Gladys decides she can get away with throwing in the towel and pivot to a ‘living with the virus’ scenario”. That could happen soonish.
I wonder how many Greens’ voters are also Anti Vaxxers? 🙂
I’ve started to notice Tradies sneaking around already in my neck of the woods in NSW. So yeah, the lockdown is fraying around the edges already.
“You can try to minimise the effect on people of an unstable Minority Government all you like”
***
Labor were entirely responsible for the instability in the very productive Gillard Gov. It would have been very stable if Labor hadn’t of spent so much time at war with themselves. The whole Craig Thompson thing didn’t help either.
Barney, watch this:
Leave No Dark Corner: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-18/china-social-credit-a-model-citizen-in-a-digital-dictatorship/10200278?nw=0 and tell me it’s science fiction.
I hope you’re right.
Re Douglas and Milko at 8.42 pm
Your language may not be a problem but your poor memory and unfamiliarity with primary sources certainly is. Read Whitlam’s 1972 Blacktown Civic Centre policy speech. It runs to 42 printed pages as reprinted in E.G. W., On Australia’s Constitution (1977) pp 265-307. A very clear progressive agenda. See for example the contrast he made at the start of the International Affairs and Defence section between McMahon’s efforts to keep Australian troops “bogged down on the mainland of Asia” and “Australia’s real test as far as the rest of the world , and particularly our region, is concerned”, which “is the role we create for our own Aborigines. … The Aborigines are a responsibility we cannot escape, cannot share, cannot shuffle off; the world will not let us forget that.” And much more. Read it again.
“And hasn’t the Black Wiggle sunk without a trace?”
***
Oooft! So cutting.
He went out on his own terms and is now enjoying life with his family.
thanks Barney
wow i will accept you have reasons
hard to see how it will play out esp if stat promise – no community cases – is held
can’t see how she could survive walking away from that
of course she should and could just resign – more likely – after the economic vandalism she has inflicted