Roy Morgan maintained its erratic ways on Friday by publishing results from its regularly conducted federal polling for the first time in a month, which is likely to be the last federal voting intention poll for over a fortnight. The results are broadly in line with polling elsewhere in showing Labor with a lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 11.5% and One Nation 3%.
The state breakdowns are also fairly similar to the last Newspoll quarterly aggregate, showing Labor with leads of 50.5-49.5 in New South Wales (a swing of a bit over 2% from the 2019 election, half a point more than Newspoll), 56-44 in Victoria (a swing of nearly 3%, compared with next to no change in Newspoll), 52.5-47.5 in Western Australia (an 8% swing, half a point less than Newspoll), 51-49 in South Australia (next to no swing, compared with around 3% in Newspoll) and 58-42 from the small Tasmanian sample (a 2% swing), while the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (a 7% swing, 1.5% more than Newspoll).
The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2737 over the last two weekends.
Totally agree- unacompanied 13 year old girls travelling the world in a dangerous sport where participants can die….
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Did Katniss win?
Merry Xmas NSW ?
.
NSW
Christmas lockdown a ‘possible scenario’
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/nsw-lockdown-may-be-in-place-until-christmas-if-state-cant-get-to-zero-cases/news-story/4ddda8d89812720e965611b210386832
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/07/25/morgan-52-5-47-5-to-labor-4/comment-page-26/#comment-3663724
Income tax brackets ordinarily still apply to those whose marginal tax rate is in higher tax brackets on that band of income. An ordinary tax cut (which is my understanding of the stage 3 tax cuts) covering tax brackets in the $45,000-$200,000 tax income range will still apply to the $45,000-$200,000 portion of the incomes of people with taxable incomes over $200,000. So not applying stage 3 tax cuts for people with an income of $1,000,000 is entirely possible, if not necessarily the smoothest solution (depending on implementation).
The problem with the argument being made by Firefox and Lars is that by focussing on the policies where Labor and the Coalition are on a unity ticket, it ignores all the areas where the difference is like night and day – and the latter far outweighs the former.
Unless you simply do not give a damn about, say, wage theft, or establishing a federal anti-corruption commission, or land-clearing, or protecting penalty rates, or a woman’s right to choose, or Jobkeeper, or protecting the NDIS, or ramsar wetlands, or LGBTI rights, or fighting climate change, or competently managing this pandemic we’ve been living with for nearly a year and a half now, to pick just the first bunch of examples that popped into my head, the Same-Same argument just doesn’t hold water.
“The Stage 3 tax cuts only effect those making between $45,000 and $200,000 a year.”
***
Labor voted for the whole package; Stage 1, 2 and 3.
Those earning over 200k will get around $2600 in tax cuts from ’24.
You can see all the rates and changes here: https://www.superguide.com.au/how-super-works/income-tax-cuts
And use the Gov’s tax cut calculator here: https://budget.gov.au/calculator/index.htm
Instead of giving the rich tax cuts, we should be increasing JobSeeker to above the poverty line, which Labor also teamed up with the Coalition to vote against.
I’m glad those girls got to win those medals. Why not? It’s no less a valid sport than running for a specified length and probably far more skillful. But they are lucky that this competitor was banned from attending:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVnzXA9b7Ww
Firefox2 @ #1307 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 5:55 pm
Will they?
That’s beyond the Budget estimates.
Yeah,nah Asha.
I’m not saying zero target or same target is a bad strategy – just that this is the strategy.
As to your points – I’d say the Liberals are doing their own hugging of Labor too – which always happens in Australia. I don’t think anybody is about to gut NDIS (from either side) to quote just one of your examples.
It just doesn’t add up to a positive reason to vote Labor. Maybe fatigue with the Liberals will be enough?
Yeah, they did. What does that have to do with today’s announcement, which is purely about the Stage 3 cuts?
Labor voted to increase JobSeeker. The Greens voted against the increase.
Lars Von Trier says:
It just doesn’t add up to a positive reason to vote Labor. Maybe fatigue with the Liberals will be enough?
________
I think it will be. Mainly because the House is already so close, it’s not like they need to do a Rudd in 2007.
Lars:
I take it you haven’t been following the news lately?
Well I think ScoMo raised the Medicare levy by 0.5% to fund NDIS.
Both parties cut welfare from time to time. Remember Labor’s reforms to single parent benefits Asha?
poroti
We wish you a fucked up Xmas.. We wish you a fucked up Xmas..
Seriously, the present lockdown in NSW is unsustainable without both the clear narrative that we are seeking covid zero and the evidence (or something that passes for an argument) that the lockdown will be succeeding.
What annoys me most about Kerry Chant’s latest sheepish orations is she really isn’t going into why the lockdown isn’t working. No details. No transparency. And no hint of a working theory as to what new measures might work.
I can remember the lockdown in Melbourne last year where we had blow by blow descriptions of every sub cluster and every workplace affected. The lack of transparency in NSW is most disturbing.
Anyhow, without Kerry telling us what she think will work and why, this lockdown has a few weeks to run before people start to riot.
Btw do you think Gladys will reopen construction sites with density limits? If so that brings us to where Melbourne was. I think we can also go harder on distance limits and make them uniform. Not that the “woman who saved Australia” would agree with me.
Recon says:
Monday, July 26, 2021 at 8:03 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
It just doesn’t add up to a positive reason to vote Labor. Maybe fatigue with the Liberals will be enough?
________
I think it will be. Mainly because the House is already so close, it’s not like they need to do a Rudd in 2007.
________
Well if Albo wins it will be proof that sometimes persistence gets rewarded in life and in politics.
Even on here he was goorn in January.
And btw the lack of openness, honesty and transparency is so typical of everything about this government. I’ve dealt with TfNSW – god what a bunch of paranoid, litigious dicks. Its why they fucked up the procurement for the light rail. Because they treated contractors as adversaries rather than partners.
Firefox2 @ #1286 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 7:28 pm
A clearer statement of the Greens political party’s goal you could not ask for. Hope their voters wake up eventually.
Tom the First and Best:
Ah, fair point.
If not mentioned already, there are multiple exposure sites on the NSW Central Coast.
I think we all know that Peeta won. 🙂
No one seems to be discussing whether or not Labor is going to repeat the mistakes of the last election by offering a bland package of good but not exactly awe inspiring policies that were forced to adhere to “fiscal discipline” for no good reason.
Also, how is Labor going to raise revenue? And if its not going to fix the obvious rorts inherent in negative gearing, how is it going to fix housing affordability? I’d be all for a huge building program for social housing for instance. Labor is always going to get the “reckless, unaffordable, yadda yadda”.. but I don’t give a shit and frankly I don’t think it matters much in voter land either.
And is Labor going to do more ARENA style funding? Can it for instance keep social housing “off the books”?
“Unless you simply do not give a damn about….”
***
If you care about any of those things, you’ll vote for the Greens, not Labor.
Many of them are actually things that the Greens have long campaigned for. Some are things Labor has teamed up with the Coalition to vote against, such as an ICAC, marriage equality, etc. Then there’s the reality that Labor still doesn’t take climate change seriously at all. Hell, Albo has even been making secret trips to coal mines.
Griff
The Central Coast and its proximity to Newcastle is a good example of why we should have blanket distance restrictions.
“Labor voted to increase JobSeeker. The Greens voted against the increase.”
***
Incorrect. The Greens voted to increase JobSeeker to $80 a day.
Labor teamed up with the Coalition to leave it below the poverty line at just $44 a day.
Cud Chewer says:
Monday, July 26, 2021 at 8:17 pm
No one seems to be discussing whether or not Labor is going to repeat the mistakes of the last election by offering a bland package of good but not exactly awe inspiring policies that were forced to adhere to “fiscal discipline” for no good reason.
Also, how is Labor going to raise revenue? And if its not going to fix the obvious rorts inherent in negative gearing, how is it going to fix housing affordability? I’d be all for a huge building program for social housing for instance. Labor is always going to get the “reckless, unaffordable, yadda yadda”.. but I don’t give a shit and frankly I don’t think it matters much in voter land either.
And is Labor going to do more ARENA style funding? Can it for instance keep social housing “off the books”?
________________
Thats true – but there are a lot of desperate people in Federal Labor – over 50 for whom the next election is probably their last shot at Government.
That doesn’t exactly lead to profiles in courage.
Firefox2 @ #1325 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 6:19 pm
That never had the support and so was an empty gesture.
But when it came to an actual increase, they then didn’t vote for one.
I was talking about the oft-repeated assertion that there’s no discernable difference between Labor and the Coalition.
Oops, forgot to add:
HECS debt incurs interest. Courtesy of Abbot.
“nor should any real left wing progressive wish for them to win that way.
A clearer statement of the Greens political party’s goal you could not ask for. Hope their voters wake up eventually.”
***
Why would any real lefty progressive want Labor to win on a platform of Liberal policies?
The Greens’ goal is to see good progressive policy enacted in this country. That’s not going to happen by Labor becoming the Liberals. The only people who win out of that are the Liberals themselves.
Firefox2 @ #1330 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 6:30 pm
So how effective have the Greens been at attaining their goal?
Firefox2 says:
Monday, July 26, 2021 at 8:30 pm
“nor should any real left wing progressive wish for them to win that way.
A clearer statement of the Greens political party’s goal you could not ask for. Hope their voters wake up eventually.”
***
Why would any real lefty progressive want Labor to win on a platform of Liberal policies?
The Greens’ goal is to see good progressive policy enacted in this country. That’s not going to happen by Labor becoming the Liberals. The only people who win out of that are the Liberals themselves.
_________________________
More to the point – if your a Labor Government, who hasn’t won an election on a platform or agenda – how do you govern?
Ironically An Albo Labor government might be not dissimilar to the Scomo liberal government – ie no great articles of faith or principle to pursue – just being in office.
The problem is that the Greens don’t recognise the reality that the Coalition are in government. They have the lower house. They set the agenda, i.e. which options are available. Typically it’s their way or nothing. There aren’t any other options. If you pretend you’re choosing something else then the result will be nothing.
Labor chooses the least worst option from what’s presented to them.
The Greens make a big show of choosing “third” options, which in reality will simply result in *nothing* once presented to The Coalition. However, the Greens are satisfied that they have “registered their intention”, “sent a message”, and that they get to interpret Labor’s vote to suit themselves.
LvT
Lars, fuck you, and also fuck the horse you rode in on (actually, the horse is not responsible for your opinions).
If the above seems too strong in language to you, it is probably because you are too young to understand how hard the Labor party has struggled to prevail at Federal elections in Australia.
In 1972, Gough, supported by an enormous number of decent people in both public and private life, barely won an election in December 1972, against the tottering Ancien Regime (in power for 23 years) then headed by Billy McMahon (Tiberius with a telephone).
While Gough was known to be in favour of things like sewerage outside the CBD, extracting our troops from Vietnam, and some sort of Universal Health Care system, none of that featured in the 1972 “It’s time” campaign.
The vibe was simply “Time for better days of living”.
In 1974, when Gough called the double dissolution to get Medibank legislation passed, the community movement that Labour had mobilised for the 1972 election got back into swing. Despite their hard work, Labor barely won (4 seat majority, I think), but were able to get the Medibank legislation passed in a joint sitting.
By 1975, the mood had turned against Labor, and even without the Dismissal, Fraser would have easily won the next scheduled Federal election.
But, he promised not to dismantle Medibank. It was only after he won government without a majority of votes in 1980, that he felt secure enough to dismantle Medibank. From 1981 – 1983, poor people who ended up in hospital found themselves with very large debts.
And when Hawke won in 1983, he also came in on the back of “I am not Malcolm Fraser, whose favourite reading material is Ayn Rand”. I credit Barry Jones for pointing out Malcolm Fraser’s enthusiasm for Ayn Rand.
So, if you are waiting for Labor to come up with a revolutionary policy that more than 52% of Federal voters will go for (52% being what Labor needs to win the next election), I would suggest that you know this is not possible, and so basically, you are a “concern” trol”l: “If only Labor stood for something, I would vote for them. ” Of course, whatever they stand for, it would never be pure enough in your eyes to mean they deserve your vote (or even preference above the Coalition).
Thank goodness your type did not prevail in 1972, 1974 or 1983.
We would now be just like the US. No health care except for those who are wealthy.
“I was talking about the oft-repeated assertion that there’s no discernable difference between Labor and the Coalition.”
***
Honestly it is getting harder to tell the difference between the two. Labor votes with the Coalition all the time. Just in the last sitting session they teamed up together to attack the democratic process in the Senate and back fracking in the Beetaloo Basin.
Cud chewer
I did some contract work for Victorian railways when there were many proud train buffs around
Worked across road from Spencer St HQ
The last passenger steam train service ( to Gippsland) left at 8:55 on Monday and we ran from one side of building to other to watch it leave Spencer. St & cross viaduct to flinders st
I can’t imagine the ignorance of the team that ordered rolling stock that doesn’t fit
If there’s “no great articles of faith or principle to pursue – just being in office” then who do you choose?
For me, Labor, because they will at least try to help all, rather than the few.
Libs, on the other hand, try to help the few, rather than all.
That’s the difference.
Douglas and Milko – not sure I am disagreeing with you.
I don’t think Whitlam was a “vibe”, I think he pretty clearly and relentlessly laid out a platform or program for government.
Firefox2 @ #1336 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 6:45 pm
I imagine it would be if you don’t bother to look.
“The problem is that the Greens don’t recognise the reality that the Coalition are in government. They have the lower house. They set the agenda, i.e. which options are available. Typically it’s their way or nothing.”
***
Yeah I’ll take nothing over Coalition policy any day, thanks. They should be opposed relentlessly at every turn because their policies and principles are disastrous for this country.
Firefox2 @ #1341 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 6:51 pm
And don’t the unemployed thank you for all you’ve got them.
I find it difficult to cope with the fact that the Greens, who seem to believe in their moral superiority, are so willing to act in a way that will return the most corrupt government we have seen for some time. I am very disappointed in them.
Firefox, sure, but you need to convince the people who voted for the Coalition that, or they’ll see you standing between them and what they voted for. Those people were, at the last election, in the majority.
“And don’t the unemployed thank you for all you’ve got them.”
***
The Greens fought hard to lift JobSeeker to $80 a day and will continue to do so. It’s not our fault that the duopoly would rather give tax cuts to rich elites than keep people out of poverty.
Firefox
You just said you’d take “nothing”.
Rachel Siewert is very committed to social justice
Macnamara. Greens hate Labor
Firefox2 @ #1345 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 6:56 pm
Have you ever thought that all the campaigning by ACOSS, the Union movement, Labor and the Greens is the reason the Government went as high as $44.
Their natural instinct would have been to pass on the normal indexed increase.
D&M’s excellent post just reminded me of another stark point of difference: Medicare, which the government are gutting at this very moment.
Grogs a bit of a disappointment.
Thought he was for the NDIS.
But then sinks the boot into Labor when Libs try to dismantle it.
ALP obviously going for the tried and true small target strategy that got Howard, Rudd and Abbott over the line as winning oppositions. The government will be disappointed about Labor’s capitulation over the tax cuts, they obviously had one hell of a scare campaign all ready to go. Tim Wilson and his roadshow will have to be wheeled out for something else.
The question is, who will have more policies at the next election? Will we get to choose between “Trust us, we’re the government and we’ve done a great job” versus “Vote for us because we’re not the government”?
Firefox2 @ #1345 Monday, July 26th, 2021 – 6:56 pm
“And don’t the unemployed thank you for all you’ve got them.”
***
The Greens fought hard to lift JobSeeker to $80 a day and will continue to do so. It’s not our fault that the duopoly would rather give tax cuts to rich elites than keep people out of poverty.
Have you ever thought that all the campaigning by ACOSS, the Union movement, Labor and the Greens is the reason the Government went as high as $44.
Their natural instinct would have been to pass on the normal indexed increase.
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Hate to break it to you, jobseeker increases haven’t been indexed for probably 20 years, part of the dire situation now, what was adequate when introduced has been totally eaten away by inflation.