Hello Newman

An eventful weekend bequeaths Queensland a by-election result and an unexpected new Senate election candidate.

I had a piece yesterday on Campbell Newman’s break with the Liberal National Party and plans to run for the Senate in Crikey, which I believe has its paywall down for a limited time only. The upshot is that Newman’s anti-lockdown message may struggle to gain traction in a state that hasn’t had many of them; that he is unlikely to benefit the conservative cause even if he wins; and that his presence on the ballot paper could even contribute to a seat currently held by the Liberal National Party (specifically Amanda Stoker) or Pauline Hanson instead going to Labor or the Greens.

The article includes a reference to a poll conducted by Ipsos in June from a sample of 500 Queensland respondents for conservative podcast host Damian Coory, who published approval ratings for state political figures among its small sample of 173 LNP voters. Newman was credited with an approval rating of nearly 60%, substantially higher than any of his four successors as party leader, which may have encouraged him in his present course. Newman has also maintained high name recognition, with only around 20% of respondents uncommitted, compared with around 40% for Lawrence Springborg and Deb Frecklington and 60% for David Crisafulli, who replaced Frecklington after the election defeat in October.

Rightly or wrongly, some media accounts have tied Newman’s abandonment of the LNP to a crisis in the party that was laid bare by Saturday’s Stretton by-election, which delivered it an unimpressive swing of 1.6%. My live results display for the by-election continues to be updated here, if on a somewhat irregular basis. The Electoral Commission of Queensland helpfully publishes preference flows by candidate, which may be of some interest: these show that preferences of the Informed Medical Options Party broke 60-40 to the LNP, while the Greens went 82-18 to Labor and Animal Justice went 56-44.

Elsewhere, Antony Green offers his estimated new margins for the finalised federal redistribution of Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,319 comments on “Hello Newman”

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  1. Socrates

    When we were putting forward our HSR proposal back in late 2017, there was a firm of architects involved and their boss even asked me about sea level rise. Good on her 🙂

    FWIW, we factored in that the rail line would have to tolerate a 2 metre sea level rise.

  4. Wonder what the people in NSW think about Morrison promising everyone will be vaccinated by Xmas, and it is a ‘gold medal challenge’ for everyone to go out and get a jab.
    Getting traction?
    —————-
    We have let Morrison down by not flocking to get the non-existent jabs. We are not deserving of such a leader.

  5. Again, agreed with the modelling. I expressed my disappointment as well.

    However, I think of Dr Kerry Chant as being a similar situation to Dr Anthony Fauci. She will definitely be able to sell an option for a book!

  8. In these days of chaos and uncertainty, it is good to see that at least our energy markets are still working precisely as was intended …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/28/renewables-industry-blasts-unacceptable-australian-energy-market-rules-it-says-will-prolong-coal-plants

    “What this will do is drive up the price of electricity for consumers and slow down the transition to renewables,” he said. “It will transfer wealth from electricity consumers to coal-fired power stations. It’s blatant and completely unacceptable.”

  9. Cud

    Read the book. Six metres would have been more prudent, depending on timescale.

    frednk

    Not necessarily all of it, but bits of it on the coast probably are.

  10. C@tmomma @ #1198 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 5:28 pm

    I didn’t know that Indonesia had become ‘the global epicentre of the virus’:

    Singapore: The Australian government is working with Qantas to organise a flight for expats stranded in Indonesia, with nearly 800 registered as wanting to return home from a country that is now the global epicentre of the virus.

    The halving of the quarantine cap in Australia and a major reduction in commercial flights by cash-strapped airline Garuda Indonesia has left seats on the remaining weekly Jakarta to Sydney service booked out for the rest of the year and led prices for one-way ticket to soar beyond $12,000.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/qantas-flight-organised-for-vulnerable-australians-stuck-in-indonesia-20210728-p58dnw.html

    Another journalist who doesn’t seem to understand that Indonesia is a lot more than just Jakarta, West Java and Bali.

  11. Who ultimately makes the decisions in NSW?
    We have a state of Emergency in SA so Grant Stevens (Police Chief) has the final say, not Marshall.

  12. Cud Chewer @ #1229 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 8:27 pm

    WTR

    The most optimistic reading of his figures is that it might be possible to bring cases down to zero by October/November. What’s the odds of Gladys extending the lockdown that far? Not good.

    I think Gladys will keep the lockdown as long as there is a risk of the hospitals being overwhelmed. Although, if that state gives up, you end up with a different brand of lockdown. I remember the Xmas zoom call with my Aunt in London where she described how she was rationing food to avoid shopping.

  13. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1260 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 9:25 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1198 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 5:28 pm

    I didn’t know that Indonesia had become ‘the global epicentre of the virus’:

    Singapore: The Australian government is working with Qantas to organise a flight for expats stranded in Indonesia, with nearly 800 registered as wanting to return home from a country that is now the global epicentre of the virus.

    The halving of the quarantine cap in Australia and a major reduction in commercial flights by cash-strapped airline Garuda Indonesia has left seats on the remaining weekly Jakarta to Sydney service booked out for the rest of the year and led prices for one-way ticket to soar beyond $12,000.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/qantas-flight-organised-for-vulnerable-australians-stuck-in-indonesia-20210728-p58dnw.html

    Another journalist who doesn’t seem to understand that Indonesia is a lot more than just Jakarta, West Java and Bali.

    I don’t think the point was that Covid equalled Jakarta, West Java and Bali, but that Indonesia had become the global epicentre of infection. Wherever in Indonesia it may be occurring.

  14. Cud Chewer says:
    Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 8:53 pm
    Griff

    I’d like nothing more than to be proven totally wrong.
    _________________________________
    How selfless of you oh doomsday seer!

  15. Griff @ #1230 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 8:32 pm

    work to rule,

    Decent plots at that site. And it demonstrates the Reff being below one in Fairfield which is important. The restrictions in Fairfield worked. They just didn’t restrict sufficiently outside the two LGA’s. Covid-19 still spreading in areas with less restriction. That is my concern. NSW is taking a gamble that the 8 LGA’s with increased resctriction have ring-fenced the major spread, that the restrictions are sufficiently decreasing mobility and that external seeding will be mopped up with effective contact tracing. Multiple educated guesses. It didn’t work when the virus decamped from the Eastern suburbs and travelled to the South West. Then again when it shifted West. Third time lucky perhaps?

    There’s been some localised success in their approach. I think NSW health is fighting smart and hard. ~100k testing per day is a phenomenal effort. The problem is at the top with decisions being delayed by politics. For example, the unwillingness to define “essential” workers (as that would mirror Victoria’s approach) and instead of coming up with the concept of “critical” workers a week after it was needed.

  17. Queensland has been calling for a purpose built quarantine facility for a long time now, getting fobbed off again and again, until Morrison found some Defence Department Land by the Brisbane Airport. I guess that means he can take credit once it’s finished, and perhaps it’s a message to the states that they don’t have all the power. Whatever the motivation, Qld is going ahead with it.
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/lucky-13-qlds-top-doc-very-worried-about-growing-covid-incursions-20210728-p58dow.html

    Frustrated CHO:

    Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young used some of her strongest language yet on Wednesday to describe the hotels as “completely insufficient” to contain the more infectious Delta variant, and to call for change.

    Pragmatic Health Minister:

    A feasibility study into the federal government’s proposed dedicated quarantine facility at Pinkenba is expected to be finalised by consultants AECOM this week. Health Minister Yvette D’Ath told reporters that while some logistical issues had emerged regarding the site, these were being worked through with the Commonwealth, despite the state’s repeated calls for a separate site near Toowoomba.

    Google map:

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Pinkenba+QLD+4008/@-27.423975,153.0991486,992m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x6b91589aa92a4aeb:0x502a35af3de9530!8m2!3d-27.4309439!4d153.1112937

  23. It’s open warfare within the RWNJ community – long may it continue until the whole edifice comes crashing down.

    ‘Apologist for these thugs’: Ray Hadley slams Alan Jones over COVID-19 conspiracy claims

    Sydney radio host Ray Hadley has stepped up his war on former 2GB colleague Alan Jones, describing the latter’s conduct as “scurrilous, contemptible and undignified” in a spray on Tuesday morning sparked by Jones’ ongoing COVID-19 commentary on Sky News.

    Jones left 2GB – which is owned by Nine Entertainment Co, the owner of this masthead – citing health reasons last year amid an advertiser exodus after 18 years at the helm of the station’s top-rating breakfast program.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/apologist-for-these-thugs-ray-hadley-slams-alan-jones-over-covid-19-conspiracy-claims-20210727-p58dem.html

  26. Cud:

    Route 25, From Tuggerah Station to Bateau Bay Square on Friday, 23 July from 1.58pm to 2.35pm

    Route 21, From Lions Park, Central Coast Highway, Long Jetty to Gosford Train Station, Stand N, Friday, 23 July from 3:41pm to 4:30pm

  32. CC
    Morrison’s responses to crises are consistent. They are invariably too little and too late. I expect the Brisbane DoD quarantine facility will be a day late, a dollar short, and somebody else’s fault. I wonder if the completion date or some other construction milestone will align with an election date.

  33. P1,

    The other Kerry, Kerry Schott, has borked it. She’s been given fucking terrible advice, which coincidentally matches exactly what Angus Taylor wanted.

  34. C@tmomma @ #1263 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 7:37 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1260 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 9:25 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1198 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 5:28 pm

    I didn’t know that Indonesia had become ‘the global epicentre of the virus’:

    Singapore: The Australian government is working with Qantas to organise a flight for expats stranded in Indonesia, with nearly 800 registered as wanting to return home from a country that is now the global epicentre of the virus.

    The halving of the quarantine cap in Australia and a major reduction in commercial flights by cash-strapped airline Garuda Indonesia has left seats on the remaining weekly Jakarta to Sydney service booked out for the rest of the year and led prices for one-way ticket to soar beyond $12,000.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/qantas-flight-organised-for-vulnerable-australians-stuck-in-indonesia-20210728-p58dnw.html

    Another journalist who doesn’t seem to understand that Indonesia is a lot more than just Jakarta, West Java and Bali.

    I don’t think the point was that Covid equalled Jakarta, West Java and Bali, but that Indonesia had become the global epicentre of infection. Wherever in Indonesia it may be occurring.

    Did I say that?

    The problem is that Indonesia is a huge country and way that journalist lazily lumber it all together paints a very inaccurate picture of what’s happening here.

    Fun fact: Indonesia from east to west spans 5,100km.

  36. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/07/27/hello-newman/comment-page-26/#comment-3665426

    I have just tested the link in the post and it goes to the correct comment for me in 3 different browsers. If you are unsure about which of the comments it refers to, hover you cursor over the comment links directly under the commenters name until in and the number will appear (at the bottom of the page, the segment with the number may take a second or two) (if you are not using a cursor, I don`t know how to read each comments links).

  37. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1283 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 10:36 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1263 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 7:37 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1260 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 9:25 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1198 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 5:28 pm

    I didn’t know that Indonesia had become ‘the global epicentre of the virus’:

    Singapore: The Australian government is working with Qantas to organise a flight for expats stranded in Indonesia, with nearly 800 registered as wanting to return home from a country that is now the global epicentre of the virus.

    The halving of the quarantine cap in Australia and a major reduction in commercial flights by cash-strapped airline Garuda Indonesia has left seats on the remaining weekly Jakarta to Sydney service booked out for the rest of the year and led prices for one-way ticket to soar beyond $12,000.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/qantas-flight-organised-for-vulnerable-australians-stuck-in-indonesia-20210728-p58dnw.html

    Another journalist who doesn’t seem to understand that Indonesia is a lot more than just Jakarta, West Java and Bali.

    I don’t think the point was that Covid equalled Jakarta, West Java and Bali, but that Indonesia had become the global epicentre of infection. Wherever in Indonesia it may be occurring.

    Did I say that?

    The problem is that Indonesia is a huge country and way that journalist lazily lumber it all together paints a very inaccurate picture of what’s happening here.

    Fun fact: Indonesia from east to west spans 5,100km.

    Yes, just like Australia. And America. And China. And Russia. However, most journalists usually use the collective national name when talking about them. 🙂

  40. Cud Chewer @ #1287 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 10:40 pm

    C@t

    No, I haven’t paid enough attention. What’s their story?

    I don’t know how they contracted it but what I do know is that they visited something like 25 shops in 5 days while infectious. And who knows how many transmissions occurred from that. They went to Bateau Bay shops. I hope they didn’t go to The Entrance shops because my son goes there all the time to do shopping for his client! And he didn’t get his first jab until last Thursday. 😯

  41. Late Riser @ #1285 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 10:36 pm

    Could C+ be tripping you up? I use a second browser running without C+ for links like that.
    (Thank you a r for your invaluable plugin.)

    There’s a whole lot of circumstances that could be getting in my way, but your observation doesn’t conflict with my perception of reality. I shall adopt your solution. Tom the first and best carry on, good fellow!

    Many thanks Late Riser.

  42. I was told that the cops have been very vigilant on the M1 about people from the coast travelling to or from Sydney and keeping a lid on it, so I can only imagine this family came up by train, though no train journeys have been identified yet.

  44. Didn’t she also have a lot to do with Australian Water Holdings?

    Ahuh.

    Energy policy peeps around he county are fucking ropable.

  45. Frednk

    The fact that a lot of port infrastructure will have to be rebuilt is precisely one of the points the book makes. The question is how and where.

    Final thought I just saw this court ruling that the SA Coroner will receive access to the redacted evidence in the Christian Porter – ABC defamation case. Another big win for Christian. So much winning.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/28/court-allows-secret-parts-of-abc-defence-in-christian-porter-defamation-case-to-be-seen-by-coroner?fbclid=IwAR2aq3wq2CJc1IsQKQyqxQtNGBRlmHin8tKt7gOlPmUWhLGSOP8UbNmieww

    Night all.

  48. So have we sorted the Labor-Greens wars yet? Or whether or not Labor needs to take policies into the coming election? And is anyone impressed by gold medal vaccinations? Does anyone believe that everyone who wants it will be vaccinated by Christmas?

    T-Shirt weather in Sydney today, 25°, amidst a cold Winter by recent standards. The Southern Hemisphere equivalent to Groundhog Day is next Monday. Hopefully the local equivalent of a groundhog (a wombat?) sees it’s shadow (or doesn’t – not sure) and it’s an early Spring.

  49. Steve777 @ #1298 Wednesday, July 28th, 2021 – 11:19 pm

    So have we sorted the Labor-Greens wars yet?

    Wrong Way, please turn back.

    Or whether or not Labor needs to take policies into the coming election?

    Please check your rear vision mirror.

    And is anyone impressed by gold medal vaccinations?

    No.

    Does anyone believe that everyone who wants it will be vaccinated by Christmas

    There is no f’n Xmas!!!

  50. S777

    So have we sorted the Labor-Greens wars yet?

    They are not actually Labor-Greens wars.

    What we have are a bunch of self-appointed gatekeepers of discussions regarding Labor, who use terms such as “Greens” and “concern troll” to label, shout down, shut out, or otherwise attempt to curate/control discussions/topics they don’t like. It’s virtue signalling. It’s easy for Labor to dislike the Greens. When these people cue/paint something as “Greens” it’s easy to get other/actual naive Labor supporters to jump on board in bashing it.

    That’s exactly what happened the other day, when they launched a volley of personal abuse against people who dared to suggest Labor might take a federal icac of some sort to the next election. One of them cued the suggestion as “Greens” and out poured a torrent of condemnation. How dare we talk about a federal icac! Do we want Labor to lose?

    Maybe these people have some sort of insight into all things Labor? Given Labor themselves mentioned some kind of federal icac a couple of days later, the evidence is they have no insight whatsoever. These people offer zero real insight into Labor. Actual Labor supporters who uncritically take their cue from these people instead of thinking for themselves should be ashamed.

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