More month of May miscellany

Preselection challenges aplenty against federal Liberals from New South Wales; a potential second Labor membership ballot as the party seeks a new leader in New South Wales; and a state by-election looms in Queensland.

There has been an outbreak of preselection challenges against federal Liberal incumbents in New South Wales, which would appear to be the fruit of new preselection rules that put more power in the hands of the party rank-and-file. However, the branch has not been so democratised as to deny the possibility of federal intervention, which Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports is likely to be invoked by the Prime Minister to protect the incumbents.

• Environment Minister Sussan Ley faces a challenge in her rural seat of Farrer from Christian Ellis, whose conservative credentials extend to an effort to expel Malcolm Turnbull from the Liberal Party after he published his autobiography last year. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Ley has complained of “outsiders” descending upon her electorate with “city-based factional branch stacking” and “a toxic culture which isn’t about the policies or the candidate”.

• Further challenges are brewing against two leading factional powerbrokers: Alex Hawke of the centre right, from conservative-aligned army colonel Michael Abrahams; and Trent Zimmerman of the moderate faction, from both Hamish Stitt, a conservative barrister, and Jess Collins, a member of the centre right.

• In the marginal Sydney seat of Reid, moderate-aligned Fiona Martin faces a challenge from sports administrator Natalie Baini. Apparently at an earlier stage of gestation are potential challenges to Bennelong MP John Alexander from Gisele Kapterian, former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash; and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose Senate seat is reportedly being eyed by conservative colleague Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW.

• One challenge that will not proceed is the one said to have been of “most concern” to senior Liberals in a report by Sarah Martin of The Guardian. Melissa McIntosh, a member of the centre right faction who won the key seat of Lindsay from Labor in 2019, was said to have been under serious pressure from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, having “lost control of her branches to the conservative faction”. However, Clare Armstrong of News.com.au reports the conservatives have “done a deal to drop the challenge”, the terms of which are unclear.

Preselections elsewhere:

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports that candidates for Labor’s preselection in the Adelaide seat of Spence include Matt Burnell, an official with the Right-aligned Transport Workers Union, and Alice Dawkins, who works with “a consulting firm specialising in Asian strategic engagement” and is the daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The safe Labor seat in northern Adelaide will be vacated at the election by Nick Champion’s move to state politics.

• A Liberal preselection last weekend for the Adelaide seat of Boothby was won by Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned management consultant and medical researcher. Swift was chosen ahead of conservative rival Leah Blythe, who had the backing of outgoing member Nicolle Flint.

• The Tasmanian seat of Lyons will be contested for the Liberals by Susie Bower, Meander Valley councillor and chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone. Bower was a candidate for Lyons at the recent state election, but polled last out of the six Liberal candidates with 3.5% of the vote. Lyons could potentially have joined Bass and Braddon as a Liberal gain at the 2019 election if not for the mid-campaign disendorsement of the party’s candidate, Jessica Whelan.

Other news:

• Jodi McKay’s resignation as New South Wales Labor leader on Friday potentially sets up a second membership ballot for the party to go with the one that will choose Rebecca White’s successor in Tasmania. This depends on whether former leader Michael Daley puts his name forward in opposition to Chris Minns, who would appear to be the clear favourite. Today’s Sun-Herald reports that head office would prefer that Minns take the position unopposed so as to avoid “an expensive ballot of rank-and-file members, which would take weeks”. However, a tweet by Daley yesterday suggested he was not of a mind to oblige them.

• Labor MP Duncan Pegg announced his resignation from the Queensland parliament early this week after a terminal cancer diagnosis. This will lead at some point to a by-election for his southern Brisbane seat of Stretton, which Pegg retained by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. Such has been the electoral record of opposition parties recently that one might have thought the Liberal National Party would sit this one out, but they have in fact jumped into the fray with the endorsement of Jim Bellos, a police officer and former Queenslander of the Year. The Courier-Mail reports the front-runner for Labor preselection is James Martin, an electorate officer to Pegg.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the apparent trend of non-university educated whites abandoning parties of the centre left in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia.

Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports the Liberal party room was told this week that the election would be held next year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,927 comments on “More month of May miscellany”

Comments Page 48 of 59
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  1. Thanks BK!

    Quelle surprise
    With Morrison and co it is always political.

    It is being reported that Morrison is now considering fast tracking payments for Victorians caught up in lockdown and not able to work.

  2. Preaching to the converted, but curious to see what reaction this gets now that the circus has moved on.

    Trump is back as voting rights face a non-stop assault. Can America’s democracy hold firm?

    Donald Trump returns to the campaign trail this weekend as the star speaker at the North Carolina Republican Party’s state convention. He is expected to hold several more rallies during the summer, as he keeps his options open about another presidential run in 2024.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-voting-rights-biden-kamala-harris-b1858029.html

  3. Plibersek just missed a golden opportunity then to deliver a little history lesson about the LABOR government’s handling of the the post WW2 transition.
    She just said she’s a student of history.
    Chuck ‘politics’ in there as well and you’ve got a potent combination.

  4. Taylormade @ #715 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 8:15 am

    Hereald Sun 03/06
    Magda Szubanski’s new quiz show is shaping up to be the weakest link on prime time TV.

    Latest ratings figures show The Weakest Link reboot, launched by Nine last week, sank from 420,000 viewers watching the May 25 premiere, to 300,000 tuning in on Tuesday night.

    Up against it in the same timeslot, ABC TV’s Love on the Spectrum pulled 403,000, and The Good Doctor, on Channel 7, got 343,000.
    ________________
    I tipped this remember.
    Lashing out at the PM’s wife on twitter was not a great career move.

    The promos alone told you it was going to be rubbish.

  5. Australia set to be green superpower, Tesla chair says
    Robyn Denholm has urged Australia to shift its focus from exporting planet-warming fossil fuels to becoming a renewable energy superpower.

    Australia’s dearest ambition is to be at the back of the pack but with the loudest voice.

  6. What the voters in Victoria need to realise it only needs 2 seats for the lib/nats to lose in Victoria , the lib/nats can not get into majority government
    Even if they retain all their seats outside of Victoria

  7. https://www.theage.com.au/national/love-on-the-home-front-for-porter-after-rough-week-20210602-p57xj6.html

    Honestly, the man’s a serial pest.

    While things have gone quiet on the legal front, there have been happier developments in Porter’s life. The minister has quietly started dating Sydney-based criminal lawyer Karen Espiner.

    The co-founder of Younes + Espiner Lawyers was spotted on a flight into Canberra on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, she confirmed the budding romance in a joint statement with the MP.

    “We are in the early stages of a relationship,” Espiner told CBD. “That relationship has not been a secret but it is a private matter which we do not intend to talk about in any detail.

    “Obviously over the last few months I have been one of many people who have provided Christian with a lot of support, but I have not been involved in the defamation proceedings in any legal capacity.”

  8. Leigh sales has once again been pathetic in this space.

    Simon Banks
    @SimonBanksHB
    Fascinating
    @leighsales
    introduced tonight’s
    @abc730
    report as an anti-Victorian story

    @normanswan
    explains we need pro-vaccination (and thus anti-Federal story)

    Leigh then interviews a Vic restauranter, without putting the critical vaccination point

    This is inappropriate


  9. Simon Katich says:
    Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 9:19 pm

    The local black cockies rejoice in ripping apart pine cones. When they tire of that they grab an unmolested large cone off the tree and take it over a nearby tin roofed house (only that house) and drop it from a great height. What a hoot.

    It is entertaining to watching a flock of yellow crested cockies fly. Most birds fly in formation with purpose maintaining height and direction. Not cockies, up and down, left and right, dive bombing basically having a hell of a time.

  10. lizzie @ #1810 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 8:27 am

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/love-on-the-home-front-for-porter-after-rough-week-20210602-p57xj6.html

    Honestly, the man’s a serial pest.

    While things have gone quiet on the legal front, there have been happier developments in Porter’s life. The minister has quietly started dating Sydney-based criminal lawyer Karen Espiner.

    The co-founder of Younes + Espiner Lawyers was spotted on a flight into Canberra on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, she confirmed the budding romance in a joint statement with the MP.

    “We are in the early stages of a relationship,” Espiner told CBD. “That relationship has not been a secret but it is a private matter which we do not intend to talk about in any detail.

    “Obviously over the last few months I have been one of many people who have provided Christian with a lot of support, but I have not been involved in the defamation proceedings in any legal capacity.”

    So, the 3rd marriage has failed already for Christian Porter?

    May I be so bold as to speculate that with so many women prepared to throw themselves at his feet, he must be hung like the proverbial.

  11. Confessions
    There is but fortunately those nutters remain a small minority. Small enough that herd immunity is still possible. The big obstacle remains the dynamic duo of Scrott+Hunt.

  12. Grrrr. I really dislike this mob.

    Likes
    Samantha Maiden’s Tweets
    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    20m
    Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the Brisbane lockdown for three days? How does that compares with a 2-week lockdown with casuals stood down without pay? Who have been locked down for 140 days in last year? Buggered if I know
    Quote Tweet
    Sarah Moran Dress
    @SarahMoran
    · 26m
    Hmmm @JoshFrydenberg on @abcnews says other states didn’t ask for Federal Government support for 1 week of lockdown.

    But our experience is CUMULATIVE.

    One week on top of many more than any other state.

    THAT’s why we need more support.
    #auspol #COVID19Vic #ScoVid
    Show this thread

  13. C@t

    Nah. Usually got more to do with being a bona fide manipulator and narcissistic. And then eventually getting found out for being an imposter.

  14. Leigh then interviews a Vic restauranter, without putting the critical vaccination point

    This is inappropriate

    I really don’t understand why business owners are being rolled out in response to Covid lockdowns. The lockdowns are in force to prevent public gatherings to reduce the risk of transmission of Covid.

    As it follows that forcing businesses to stop trading temporarily necessarily means their income will reduce for that period, what does repeatedly having them in the news to explain this add to the debate? It isn’t as if the lockdowns are occurring on economic grounds, so what is the alternative?

  15. ‘frednk says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 8:31 am

    Simon Katich says:
    Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 9:19 pm

    The local black cockies rejoice in ripping apart pine cones. When they tire of that they grab an unmolested large cone off the tree and take it over a nearby tin roofed house (only that house) and drop it from a great height. What a hoot.

    It is entertaining to watching a flock of yellow crested cockies fly. Most birds fly in formation with purpose maintaining height and direction. Not cockies, up and down, left and right, dive bombing basically having a hell of a time.’
    ————————————
    Australian black cockatoos generally have beaks which are highly specialized to specific foods. This counts against most of them as their specialized food sources are cleared. OTOH the Yellow-tailed Black Cockatoo has been fortunate that it can access pine nuts by cracking pine cones.

  16. According to Swan, he has it on good authority that the feds stuffed up procuring Pfizer due to unwillingness to pay the price.

    Rafael Epstein
    @Raf_Epstein
    ·
    21h
    Why Melbourne?
    And what happened Pfizer last year?
    Good chat with
    @normanswan

    Listen here
    Why Melbourne: Dr Norman Swan explains covid lockdown 4.0
    The host of Coronacast says when it comes to the vaccine rollout, “when you talk to people on the inside they say it’s worse than you imagine it from the outside”.
    abc.net.au

  17. mundo @ #1804 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 8:21 am

    Taylormade @ #715 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 8:15 am

    Hereald Sun 03/06
    Magda Szubanski’s new quiz show is shaping up to be the weakest link on prime time TV.

    Latest ratings figures show The Weakest Link reboot, launched by Nine last week, sank from 420,000 viewers watching the May 25 premiere, to 300,000 tuning in on Tuesday night.

    Up against it in the same timeslot, ABC TV’s Love on the Spectrum pulled 403,000, and The Good Doctor, on Channel 7, got 343,000.
    ________________
    I tipped this remember.
    Lashing out at the PM’s wife on twitter was not a great career move.

    The promos alone told you it was going to be rubbish.

    And what you just wrote was rubbish.

    I’ve watched both episodes and I can lay out clearly what the problem is and it’s not that Magda insulted the PM’s wife, that’s just a RW meme. The problem for the show is twofold:

    1. It’s on after Celebrity Apprentice, beginning at 8.30-9pm, when most people are getting the kids to bed or preparing for bed themselves if they have to get up early for work, as an increasing number of people do these days.

    2. Magda is too round and cuddly to be an effective front person for this show. You need someone who is hard-arsed and looks it. Magda doesn’t. She’s trying her best but this just isn’t the right vehicle for her.

    Oh, and at that time of night, only a 43000 difference between The Weakest Link and The Good Doctor is almost nothing. So why isn’t Taylormade complaining about what a weak offering it is then?

    Because we want to ‘Get Magda’. Simple. As. That. That is the Liberal project and that is what Taylormade is faithfully doing here.

  18. I don’t mind the debate including the viewpoints of small business – as long as they focus on the business implications.
    When they start making statements about pandemic management they are generally all at sea, often mislead and should be reminded of this by interviewers.
    But when you have a hypothetical scenario where a stooge interviewer question a stooge interviewee none of the above need apply.

  19. Australian black cockatoos generally have beaks which are highly specialized to specific foods. This counts against most of them as their specialized food sources are cleared. OTOH the Yellow-tailed Black Cockatoo has been fortunate that it can access pine nuts by cracking pine cones.

    Gang gangs are quite adept at tackling (Italian?) cypress cones.

  20. ACT joins the 40+ vaccination club:

    Andrew Barr MLA @ABarrMLA

    Canberrans between the ages of 40-49 will now be able to book in for a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination at the ACT COVID-19 mass vaccination clinic at Garran. https://t.co/rmlMjnc1La


  21. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 8:15 am

    Hereald Sun 03/06
    Magda Szubanski’s new quiz show is shaping up to be the weakest link on prime time TV.

    Latest ratings figures show The Weakest Link reboot, launched by Nine last week, sank from 420,000 viewers watching the May 25 premiere, to 300,000 tuning in on Tuesday night.
    ..
    Lashing out at the PM’s wife on twitter was not a great career move.

    What has a obnoxious boring show tanking in the ratings got to do with the PM’s wife?

  22. J
    Yep. Gang-gangs have shown the ability to adapt to various urban garden foods. Their population is trending down. No one is quite certain why. One reason might be a lack of suitable nest hollows as native forests become younger and younger through extended droughts, clearing, forestry practices, intensified fire regimes, and accelerated paddock tree death.

  23. Victoria @ #1817 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 8:41 am

    C@t

    Nah. Usually got more to do with being a bona fide manipulator and narcissistic. And then eventually getting found out for being an imposter.

    Not only but also. I have circulated among these people, you wouldn’t believe how much the potential partner’s good genes factor into their choice of mate. It’s very transactional, as Scott Morrison would say. And the sociopathic men at the top of the totem pole parlay it to their best advantage.

  24. ‘Jaeger says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 8:49 am

    ACT joins the 40+ vaccination club:

    Andrew Barr MLA @ABarrMLA

    Canberrans between the ages of 40-49 will now be able to book in for a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination at the ACT COVID-19 mass vaccination clinic at Garran. https://t.co/rmlMjnc1La
    ———————————————————
    Ageism gone mad.
    We are heading to a situation where younger vaccinated people are better protected than older vaccinated people.

  25. According to Swan, he has it on good authority that the feds stuffed up procuring Pfizer due to unwillingness to pay the price.

    Scotty and his motley crew penny pinching on vaccines ? Never !

  26. Absolute incompetence by Morrison & co – or perhaps Morrison prefers to see people die to “teach the Victorian government a lesson”.

    What on earth are Morrison and Hunt doing with the one million doses a week supposedly being produced by CSL?

    Melbourne GPs say they are being forced to turn away huge numbers of vaccine-seeking locals, including busloads of vulnerable residents from care facilities, because the commonwealth’s supply of doses has not increased to match the explosion in demand.

    The latest outbreak has caused a huge increase in demand for the Covid-19 vaccine in Victoria, and the state is now recording daily vaccination numbers of above 20,000, up from the roughly 2,600 doses administered on 24 May.

    The demand has inundated local GPs, who say their supplies of vaccine doses are evaporating almost immediately.

    Some clinics say they have made urgent requests to the federal government for higher dose allocations, only to be rejected.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/03/critical-lack-of-covid-vaccine-supply-in-melbourne-forcing-gps-to-turn-people-away

  27. Morning all. Despite valid complaints on media coverage of the SA/Federally caused outbreak that has happened in Victoria, there is still a lot of media coverage validly pointing to Commonwealth ineptitude. This article by David Speers makes some valid criticisms of the embattled Aged Care Minister Richard Colbeck. It will be interesting to see who fronts up on the Insiders on Sunday from government.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-03/covid-outbreak-aged-care-vaccination/100184786

  28. “C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 7:21 am
    Jaeger @ #1779 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 7:17 am

    I have my fingers crossed that two years of Naftali Bennett doesn’t see the Settler Movement go hell for leather to take over more Palestinian land.

    I hope it is only two years…
    I don’t know how their political system works; does the new president have veto powers?

    TPOF probably knows, if anyone does. Though I imagine there is something in the deal between the two men to make sure Bennett goes when he’s supposed to.

    Although I know zilch about Isreali parliamentary system other than
    1. Parliament name is Knesset
    2. It is the only Democratic system in that part of the world
    3. Islamists are trying to overthrow that system since the inception of Jewish state.

    But I know one thing. The arrangement that they have worked out does not end well, where the person who became PM first will not let go the PMship easily and it may lead to early elections with increased number of seats for Likud.
    I read somewhere that Bennett party has less seats than Lapid party has. If so, that is a recipe for instability.

  29. “porotisays:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 6:33 am
    Morrison

    Morrison will warn G7 nations not to put carbon tariffs on trade
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will warn against the use of carbon tariffs to force action on climate change

    G7

    I get your emoji. But doesn’t that show
    1. Morrison chutzpah
    2. He wants to rain on their parade and getaway with that
    3. Insensitive to the host invitation
    3.

  30. disappointing hearing Hamish Macdonald trying to stoke non-existent leadership tensions in the ALP with Tanya Pliberseck this morning.

    I mean, what exactly did he expect her to say?

    And I’m guessing Frydenberg didn’t get the same treatment when he was interviewed?

  31. @DocAvvers
    ·
    3m
    We obviously need to stop locking down Victoria when there are outbreaks here and instead simply all travel to NSW – because their gold standards will ensure there are no outbreaks or lockdowns there, no matter how many infected people arrive.

  32. It sounds like a recipe for political instability in Israel, Ven, but I have my fingers crossed, as I said, that the power-sharing deal between the 2 men covers all potential eventualities and that the first PM, Bennett, does the right thing by the country.

  33. “porotisays:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 7:52 am
    Confessions at 7:42 am

    Without Twitter he’s dying a slow death. Too funny.

    US MSM would also be getting a big kick in the guts. Trump making it all about Trump all the time was a ratings bonanza for many a program.

    This.
    They, especially NYT and WP, made some easy money in the 4 years of Trump admin by just reacting to his utterances. I read that CBS network chief reacting to Trump election in 2016 by saying something like”he will be a ratings bonanza”.
    I read that even media organisations like NYT and WP were struggling for cash flow. WP is bought by Bezos, the richest man in US.

  34. The NSW government deserves criticism for its use of little more than accounting fraud to announce a deceptively small deficit. This would be a crime if a listed corporation did it.

    Yet the accountant KPMG also deserves criticism. The “big four” accounting firms have moved heavily into the government consulting space in recent years, often in areas like transport where they have little baseline expertise. Why? Some say governments like to have their reports to put the stamp of credibility on projects. You would have to suspect though, looking at cases like this, that it is because they tell governments what they want to hear.

    We really need to go back to having more engineering and economic management expertise located within the State public services. Don’t even get me started about the Federal PS.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/budget-lie-internal-forecasts-show-rail-entity-propping-up-state-s-finances-20210602-p57xfm.html

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