More month of May miscellany

Preselection challenges aplenty against federal Liberals from New South Wales; a potential second Labor membership ballot as the party seeks a new leader in New South Wales; and a state by-election looms in Queensland.

There has been an outbreak of preselection challenges against federal Liberal incumbents in New South Wales, which would appear to be the fruit of new preselection rules that put more power in the hands of the party rank-and-file. However, the branch has not been so democratised as to deny the possibility of federal intervention, which Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports is likely to be invoked by the Prime Minister to protect the incumbents.

• Environment Minister Sussan Ley faces a challenge in her rural seat of Farrer from Christian Ellis, whose conservative credentials extend to an effort to expel Malcolm Turnbull from the Liberal Party after he published his autobiography last year. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Ley has complained of “outsiders” descending upon her electorate with “city-based factional branch stacking” and “a toxic culture which isn’t about the policies or the candidate”.

• Further challenges are brewing against two leading factional powerbrokers: Alex Hawke of the centre right, from conservative-aligned army colonel Michael Abrahams; and Trent Zimmerman of the moderate faction, from both Hamish Stitt, a conservative barrister, and Jess Collins, a member of the centre right.

• In the marginal Sydney seat of Reid, moderate-aligned Fiona Martin faces a challenge from sports administrator Natalie Baini. Apparently at an earlier stage of gestation are potential challenges to Bennelong MP John Alexander from Gisele Kapterian, former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash; and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose Senate seat is reportedly being eyed by conservative colleague Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW.

• One challenge that will not proceed is the one said to have been of “most concern” to senior Liberals in a report by Sarah Martin of The Guardian. Melissa McIntosh, a member of the centre right faction who won the key seat of Lindsay from Labor in 2019, was said to have been under serious pressure from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, having “lost control of her branches to the conservative faction”. However, Clare Armstrong of News.com.au reports the conservatives have “done a deal to drop the challenge”, the terms of which are unclear.

Preselections elsewhere:

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports that candidates for Labor’s preselection in the Adelaide seat of Spence include Matt Burnell, an official with the Right-aligned Transport Workers Union, and Alice Dawkins, who works with “a consulting firm specialising in Asian strategic engagement” and is the daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The safe Labor seat in northern Adelaide will be vacated at the election by Nick Champion’s move to state politics.

• A Liberal preselection last weekend for the Adelaide seat of Boothby was won by Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned management consultant and medical researcher. Swift was chosen ahead of conservative rival Leah Blythe, who had the backing of outgoing member Nicolle Flint.

• The Tasmanian seat of Lyons will be contested for the Liberals by Susie Bower, Meander Valley councillor and chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone. Bower was a candidate for Lyons at the recent state election, but polled last out of the six Liberal candidates with 3.5% of the vote. Lyons could potentially have joined Bass and Braddon as a Liberal gain at the 2019 election if not for the mid-campaign disendorsement of the party’s candidate, Jessica Whelan.

Other news:

• Jodi McKay’s resignation as New South Wales Labor leader on Friday potentially sets up a second membership ballot for the party to go with the one that will choose Rebecca White’s successor in Tasmania. This depends on whether former leader Michael Daley puts his name forward in opposition to Chris Minns, who would appear to be the clear favourite. Today’s Sun-Herald reports that head office would prefer that Minns take the position unopposed so as to avoid “an expensive ballot of rank-and-file members, which would take weeks”. However, a tweet by Daley yesterday suggested he was not of a mind to oblige them.

• Labor MP Duncan Pegg announced his resignation from the Queensland parliament early this week after a terminal cancer diagnosis. This will lead at some point to a by-election for his southern Brisbane seat of Stretton, which Pegg retained by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. Such has been the electoral record of opposition parties recently that one might have thought the Liberal National Party would sit this one out, but they have in fact jumped into the fray with the endorsement of Jim Bellos, a police officer and former Queenslander of the Year. The Courier-Mail reports the front-runner for Labor preselection is James Martin, an electorate officer to Pegg.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the apparent trend of non-university educated whites abandoning parties of the centre left in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia.

Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports the Liberal party room was told this week that the election would be held next year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,927 comments on “More month of May miscellany”

Comments Page 49 of 59
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  1. Louise Milligan
    @Milliganreports

    From
    @MikeCDouglas
    defamation lawyer & academic at Porter’s alma mater, UWA: “Porter can try to spin this however he likes. He was suing in one of the most pro-plaintiff jurisdictions in the world, with the most pro-plaintiff defamation law in the world, & he has given up.”

  2. I can think of few things more irrelevent in 2021 than how a revival of a 90s gameshow is rating on free-to-air TV.

  3. (ABC updates)

    Victoria has recorded two new local coronavirus cases, taking the state’s outbreak to 63.

    The state recorded a total of three local cases on Wednesday, which includes an 89-year-old resident of the Arcare Maidstone aged care home, whose infection was revealed on Wednesday afternoon.

    The results were detected among 57,519 test results received on Wednesday, a record for the state, as 23,921 vaccination doses were administered at state-run vaccination sites — also a record.

  4. 57k tests! Wow…
    Hopefully the story behind the numbers is good, but with 3 as the numbered – it is looking positive.

  5. Simon Love
    @SimoLove
    ·
    12m
    Josh Frydenberg signalling to @3AWNeilMitchell that Fed Govt’s support for alternative quarantine facility in Victoria will be announced / confirmed tomorrow and that the @AvalonAirportAU proposal is favourable. #springst
    @10NewsFirstMelb

    Always goes to RW programs.
    Never supports VicLabor

  6. Frydo doesn’t want to fork out jobkeeper to Vic because, and I quote, he doesn’t want to encourage the “easy option” of lockdown

    Well f*Ck you, you offensive elitist jerk, and every last member of your shitty party, Frydo.

    We all know the state governments have saved you federal arseclowns from buggering this up Bojo/ Trump style. We all know there’d be 30,000 dead Australians if it’d been left in your incapable hands.

    You screwed up vaccines. You screwed up Quarantine.

    You have one #%* use: fork out the bucks, so get to it. And if you only have asinine rubbish like this to say, then STFU while you’re at it.

  7. Julian Hill has just let fly with “I’ll bet my bottom dollar there’s no doubt that in the next couple of days, he’ll panic is getting desperate. I think even he at some level realises the failure the mess that he’s making. He’ll make some kind of announcement saying: “oh, well, we’ll build a purpose built quarantine facility”. Well he’s had on his desk a report for eight months telling him to do this and he’s done nothing. Jane Halton yesterday called him out for this.

    How can anyone trust anything this Prime Minister says now? Frankly, he’s a bullshit artist.

    He told us last year: “Don’t worry. There’ll be 4 million people vaccinated by the end of March”. He said: “Don’t worry, we’ve got aged care”. Well, when this outbreak started in Victoria, we found that 40% – only 40% – of aged care residents had been fully vaccinated. 29 homes they hadn’t even turned up for the first dose. 2% of people in disability care vaccinated.

    Now it sounds like I’m getting a bit personal with the Prime Minister. And, I am. I don’t like him. I don’t trust him. I don’t think he’s good at his job. He is a very cunning politician, but he is a failure – an absolute failure – as a leader. He failed the country on bushfires. He’s failed on hotel quarantine. He’s failing on vaccines. And now he’s failing Victoria. This bullshit artist is abandoning Victoria in our hour of need.”

  8. On AFR front page – Thermal Coal joins iron ore as top earner. (I thought thermal coal was finished).
    There is a global shortage of the fossil fuel giving Aust miners a surprise boom. The price for top-quality NSW coal has hit $US122 per tonne, the highest level since July 2018. Brent Crude hit over $71 overnight as well at 2 year highs so don’t know what’s going on.

  9. Good to see that, just ten weeks after leaving his position as WA Treasurer, that proud Yamatji man Ben Wyatt has picked up a board position with Woodside Petroleum. No doubt he’ll be able to provide some cover for Woodside with its Scarborough project and the destruction of the Murujuga rock art on the Burrup Peninsula.

    Ben, as you recall, sat on his hands when he was WA Treasurer while Rio Tinto blew up the Juukan Gorge caves. So, I would imagine that now he has picked up his first significant board membership that Rio might come knocking.

  10. Alpha Zero,
    That’s an interesting graphic. I note that one ? case has occurred at Brighton Beach. Where I would have thought that, in winter, there wouldn’t be many people around, also that a beach would be an unlikely place to pick up the virus in winter due to the low number of people there and the salt spray in the copious fresh air. Apparently not.

  11. Stuart Cairns,
    And Ben Wyatt’s uncle, Ken Wyatt, the Indigenous Affairs Minister, who also hails from WA, couldn’t be arsed to protect the Juukan Caves either. But let’s just overlook that small point, eh and give Ben Wyatt a big sledge?

  12. “The Morrison government are gold standard penny pinchers” … C@t
    The Morrison government are squillions of penny pinchers for their mates!

  13. BK,
    I was gobsmacked to read about this marketing trick from ScamMo in Sarah Russell’s Guardian article about Richard Colbeck:

    The federal government also did not have a specific pandemic plan for the aged care sector, a fact confirmed by the royal commission into aged care quality and safety. In response, Colbeck stated: “The government maintains its position that it has a plan in place.”

    What the minister may have been referring to was the Department of Health’s 7th edition of the updated national Covid-19 aged care plan. Another great marketing trick from the prime minister’s playbook – give the impression there were six earlier editions of the aged care plan when in fact there were none.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/02/richard-colbeck-can-no-longer-pass-the-buck-on-the-failure-to-protect-australians-in-aged-care-homes

  14. Manny Pacquiao Emerges as Obstacle to Duterte’s Succession Plans

    Boxer-turned-politician Manny Pacquiao is emerging as an obstacle to Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s succession plans when his single six-year term ends next year.

    Pacquiao, a loyal ally to Duterte since his shock election win in 2016, has rankled loyalists to the strongman leader since becoming acting head of the president’s ruling PDP-Laban party in December. Tensions spiked last week when Pacquiao urged members to ignore a meeting convened by a rival that called on Duterte to pick the party’s presidential candidate in 2022 and run for vice president.

    That party resolution opened the door for the 76-year-old leader to stay in a top government post as he looks to avoid criminal charges after he leaves office, a common occurrence in the Philippines. But it also complicates the presidential ambitions of Pacquiao, 42, who will be eligible to stand for the top job for the first time.

    The boxer, who is set to fight undefeated rival Errol Spence Jr. in Las Vegas on Aug. 21, faces stiff competition for Duterte’s endorsement ahead of the May 2022 vote. Other prospective candidates include Sara Duterte, the president’s daughter, as well as his aide Senator Christopher “Bong” Go and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. — the only son of the former Philippine dictator.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/manny-pacquiao-emerges-as-obstacle-to-duterte-s-succession-plans?srnd=premium-asia

  15. i like Magda as a person, but let’s be honest, as a performer she is a hack. She has ONE character and has been stealing a living from it for the last thirty years.

  16. Asha Leu says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 9:34 am
    I can think of few things more irrelevent in 2021 than how a revival of a 90s gameshow is rating on free-to-air TV.

    So much of free-to-air TV is irrelevant nowadays. We don’t have any pay TV or streaming services so it’s either a few shows like Masterchef (OH), repeats of Air Crash Investigation (me) or a bit of SBS. Almost never ABC and very seldom the commercial channels. Sometimes I’ll listen to SBS chill music at night.

  17. The boxer, who is set to fight undefeated rival Errol Spence Jr. in Las Vegas on Aug. 21, faces stiff competition for Duterte’s endorsement ahead of the May 2022 vote. Other prospective candidates include Sara Duterte, the president’s daughter, as well as his aide Senator Christopher “Bong” Go and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. — the only son of the former Philippine dictator.

    Wait, are there any candidates who aren’t right-wing crazies?

  18. cat,

    Brighton Beach is a suburb about 30 mins south of Melbourne and there are plenty of people living in the immediate vicinity. So, there are plenty of shops, pubs and cafes servicing daily trade.

  19. Victoria
    “Another beautiful sunny day in Melbourne town.”

    Bloody horrendous in Sydney. Weather has just turned very nasty.

  20. BW: “Did Hamish do something bad?”
    ——————————

    Interviewed Plibersek this morning. Was going ok until near the end he asked a particularly stupid question, WTTE “Albanese doesn’t seem to be cutting through or have much vision – do you think you would be doing a better job than him if you were leader”. I mean, FFS, what did he expect her to say??

    So she started to give the stock standard answer all politicians give when they are presented with this sort of “are you about to knife your leader” type questions – WTTE “Albanese is doing a great job, I’m fully focused on my portfolio etc” – at which point Hamish butted in and said “thats not really answering the question…”, which he obviously knew she was never going to do anyway…

    I mean, it was just a cheap and frankly pretty clumsy stunt by Hamish. Probably done in the hope that the question and his voice would make it into today’s afternoon news cycle. Self serving.

  21. dave

    Basically it is a matter of various coalitions within the elites trying to get ‘their’ candidate up and running in order to corral government business after their candidate gets across the line.

    FWIW, I have been past Pacquiao’s house. He is, IMO, very popular.
    My general understanding is that (ironically?) the Duterte family might have some in-house drug management issues… so running Sara could well be interesting.
    The Marcos name still considerable pull.

  22. Hamish asked a stock standard MSM question when a LOTO has PPM figures as low as Albo’s?

    Oh, dearie, dearie me.

    What is the world coming to?

  23. In relation to the Wyatts, it is foolish to assume that all Indigenous politicians, leaders businesspersons and citizens would share the Left’s values, concerns and priorities.

    In relation to Ben, it might well be extremely useful for an Indigenous person to be on the boards of ALL fossil fuel and mining companies. The alternative – having none – does not seem to be a useful model.

    Whether the non-Indigenous Left is in a position to moralize on the Indigenous leaders not being good enough AS Indigenous leaders because they don’t share Left values is, IMO, a signal for the Left to do a bit of self reflection.

    FWIW, the fed Wyatt has achieved some advanced outcomes in terms of program management. He is also doing what he can behind the scenes to salvage what he can from the wreckage of The Uluru Statement From the Heart.

  24. Well, I had my AZ#1 shot yesterday.

    Made past the 15-minute “anaphylactic shock” observation period.

    Woke up this morning still alive (always a positive sign).

    No sore arm. No flu symptoms, tiredness or headache. No nothing so far. May as well have been saline solution.

    With the flu shot 5 weeks ago at least I had a sore arm.

    I’m wondering whether:

    (a) I’m just lucky,

    (b) My immune system is broken,

    (c) I’m part of some secret “AZ Effectiveness” experiment and got the placebo.

    Between 4-20 days is when the “Blood Clot” period kicks in, so that’ll be fun to live through.

    Was handed a reasonably informative sheet on side-effects to look out for, but was surprised to see the claim that there had been only ONE case of blood clots here.

    I thought there had been more than that.

  25. As much as it pains NSW is the Gold Standard re QR check in … why didn’t Victoria just implement the NSW system…

    Data obtained by Guardian Australia reveals a significant increase in check-ins to the Service Victoria app in May as businesses began to transition to the single app.

    The state had 18m check-ins between 13 and 31 May, out of 39m in total since the app was launched at the end of November 2020.

    Victoria’s app still has recorded far fewer check-ins than its counterpart in New South Wales, where the Service NSW app has been mandatory since 1 January.

    NSW reported 50.6m for the month of May alone – a 2.3m increase on check-ins over April, which had 48.3m. But that latest figure is still significantly lower than the peak of 66m check-ins when the state made the Service NSW app mandatory in January.

    Victoria is miles behind, no excuse

  26. Global Cartoons.

    From the UK:








    Canada:



    Ireland:



    India:






    New Zealand:

    Netherlands:
    Victor Orban

    World Environment day is June 5




    France:

    XKCD:

  27. No sore arm.

    Lucky. Mine spent about 48 hours feeling like someone had whacked it with a baseball cricket bat.

    Aside from that though, no side-effects.

  28. Thank for your insight, boer. However, somehow I don’t see Ben Wyatt as some sort of fifth columnist on the Woodside board. I think that for the very fat sitting fee, it will be more of a case of “you would agree with that, wouldn’t you Ben?”

    Regarding your other comment with respect to Ken Wyatt, I’d be interested to know on what basis you think that the “Uluru Statement from the Heart” represents wreckage. Surely it cannot be such just because the Liberal and National parties turned their backs on it.

  29. Is there anyone here who can tell us why some people’s reactions to the Vax vary so widely? I suppose it’s not really important, but I’d like to know.

  30. An announcement on the Victorian quarantine facility is expected tomorrow.

    Cathy Thomson
    @tassiedevil
    1h
    Just trying to finalise which federal government donor to award the contract to.

  31. U.S. COVID update: New cases down 33% from last week

    – New cases: 16,440 …………………… – New deaths: 571

    – In hospital: 21,551 (+52)
    – In ICU: 5,992 (+14)

    610,990 total deaths now

  32. ‘Stuart says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 10:44 am

    Thank for your insight, boer. However, somehow I don’t see Ben Wyatt as some sort of fifth columnist on the Woodside board. I think that for the very fat sitting fee, it will be more of a case of “you would agree with that, wouldn’t you Ben?”

    Regarding your other comment with respect to Ken Wyatt, I’d be interested to know on what basis you think that the “Uluru Statement from the Heart” represents wreckage. Surely it cannot be such just because the Liberal and National parties turned their backs on it.’
    ——————————————————
    1. You appear to know what is in Ben’s mind and heart. IMO, if you are guessing you are slagging as well as defaming.
    2. Progress with implementing The Uluru Statement from the Heart since 2017 is a train wreck.

  33. …… Whether the non-Indigenous Left is in a position to moralize on the Indigenous leaders not being good enough AS Indigenous leaders because they don’t share Left values is, IMO, a signal for the Left to do a bit of self reflection…..

    I pretty much agree with all of this. However, I have once been guilty of posting negatively on the status given to an indigenous leader. There are some who will espouse what appear to be right wing (even far right) views on indigenous affairs and they get treated like posters by Murdoch outlets and 2GB but also lauded in other media. I do wonder at the symbiotic nature of some of these relationships while at the same time happy to see any entrenched thinking ruffled up – be it conservative thinking or progressive – on an issue that just isnt being dealt with by either side of the dichotomy (for reasons that should be obvious).

    Jacinta Price is a recent example where her research and article (funded by CIS) was latched onto by the RW media and then by a local ABC journo who prides (deludes) himself at his centrist, no-nonsense take on things. He gave her prolonged airtime without acknowledging her political affiliations nor the rather sizable disagreement many other indigenous leaders have on the issue (although he did take the time to take a jibe at lefties/progressives).

    What I think I have learned over the years and that annoyed me most about Price is that I felt I was in a game the Left and the Right were trying win, a spincycle of persuasion, where what is needed (and I believe is pretty much happening with the Uluru statement) is Indigenous peoples want out of that dichotomy, have their own arguments and make their own decisions rather than trying to win over the whities through the existing political party, ideological paradigm.

  34. BB
    Have you removed the chip yet?

    Was told I couldn’t remove it until it had linked with Google and ASIO first, and had interfaced with the old COVID-Safe app on my phone, the one I thought I’d deleted, but which apparently is irremovable once it has interfaced with my frontal lobe synapses and searched my house surreptitiously using the camera app when I’m not looking, for that old stash of weed that I keep around from my hippie days.

    I’d know it was OK to remove the chip when I saw the white geranium in the pot plant on top of the black van parked across the street replaced with a red one.

  35. Simon Katich

    I first saw Jacinta Price on The Drum and was repelled by her attitude. Then I felt guilty that I might be exhibiting a racist reaction. Later I was cheered to find that I was not alone and my reaction was justified.

  36. I want to make it clear that my issue isnt with Price. I found her impressive (not that my opinion matters one bit) and can see she would/could be a good leader wherever she wants to lead. My issue is with a system that forces irregularly shaped people and issues into two perfectly round Canberra holes.

  37. SK
    Nice post, IMO.
    The space is tricky.
    The thing about colonialism is that it corrupts human relationships.
    If you are powerless then one of life’s reasonable options may well be to latch on to one or other of whitefella camps and do what you can to further your personal interests.
    As a corollary, whitefellas can seek to co-opt you to further their agendas.
    For a couple of centuries whitefellas arguing about what is best for First Nations (and judging their Indigenous political allies accordingly) has pretty well been a comprehensive failure.
    Time to move to Plan B, IMO.

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