More month of May miscellany

Preselection challenges aplenty against federal Liberals from New South Wales; a potential second Labor membership ballot as the party seeks a new leader in New South Wales; and a state by-election looms in Queensland.

There has been an outbreak of preselection challenges against federal Liberal incumbents in New South Wales, which would appear to be the fruit of new preselection rules that put more power in the hands of the party rank-and-file. However, the branch has not been so democratised as to deny the possibility of federal intervention, which Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports is likely to be invoked by the Prime Minister to protect the incumbents.

• Environment Minister Sussan Ley faces a challenge in her rural seat of Farrer from Christian Ellis, whose conservative credentials extend to an effort to expel Malcolm Turnbull from the Liberal Party after he published his autobiography last year. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Ley has complained of “outsiders” descending upon her electorate with “city-based factional branch stacking” and “a toxic culture which isn’t about the policies or the candidate”.

• Further challenges are brewing against two leading factional powerbrokers: Alex Hawke of the centre right, from conservative-aligned army colonel Michael Abrahams; and Trent Zimmerman of the moderate faction, from both Hamish Stitt, a conservative barrister, and Jess Collins, a member of the centre right.

• In the marginal Sydney seat of Reid, moderate-aligned Fiona Martin faces a challenge from sports administrator Natalie Baini. Apparently at an earlier stage of gestation are potential challenges to Bennelong MP John Alexander from Gisele Kapterian, former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash; and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose Senate seat is reportedly being eyed by conservative colleague Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW.

• One challenge that will not proceed is the one said to have been of “most concern” to senior Liberals in a report by Sarah Martin of The Guardian. Melissa McIntosh, a member of the centre right faction who won the key seat of Lindsay from Labor in 2019, was said to have been under serious pressure from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, having “lost control of her branches to the conservative faction”. However, Clare Armstrong of News.com.au reports the conservatives have “done a deal to drop the challenge”, the terms of which are unclear.

Preselections elsewhere:

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports that candidates for Labor’s preselection in the Adelaide seat of Spence include Matt Burnell, an official with the Right-aligned Transport Workers Union, and Alice Dawkins, who works with “a consulting firm specialising in Asian strategic engagement” and is the daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The safe Labor seat in northern Adelaide will be vacated at the election by Nick Champion’s move to state politics.

• A Liberal preselection last weekend for the Adelaide seat of Boothby was won by Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned management consultant and medical researcher. Swift was chosen ahead of conservative rival Leah Blythe, who had the backing of outgoing member Nicolle Flint.

• The Tasmanian seat of Lyons will be contested for the Liberals by Susie Bower, Meander Valley councillor and chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone. Bower was a candidate for Lyons at the recent state election, but polled last out of the six Liberal candidates with 3.5% of the vote. Lyons could potentially have joined Bass and Braddon as a Liberal gain at the 2019 election if not for the mid-campaign disendorsement of the party’s candidate, Jessica Whelan.

Other news:

• Jodi McKay’s resignation as New South Wales Labor leader on Friday potentially sets up a second membership ballot for the party to go with the one that will choose Rebecca White’s successor in Tasmania. This depends on whether former leader Michael Daley puts his name forward in opposition to Chris Minns, who would appear to be the clear favourite. Today’s Sun-Herald reports that head office would prefer that Minns take the position unopposed so as to avoid “an expensive ballot of rank-and-file members, which would take weeks”. However, a tweet by Daley yesterday suggested he was not of a mind to oblige them.

• Labor MP Duncan Pegg announced his resignation from the Queensland parliament early this week after a terminal cancer diagnosis. This will lead at some point to a by-election for his southern Brisbane seat of Stretton, which Pegg retained by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. Such has been the electoral record of opposition parties recently that one might have thought the Liberal National Party would sit this one out, but they have in fact jumped into the fray with the endorsement of Jim Bellos, a police officer and former Queenslander of the Year. The Courier-Mail reports the front-runner for Labor preselection is James Martin, an electorate officer to Pegg.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the apparent trend of non-university educated whites abandoning parties of the centre left in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia.

Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports the Liberal party room was told this week that the election would be held next year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,927 comments on “More month of May miscellany”

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  1. If the New South Wales liberals are looking to corner the low energy market, Hamish Stitt would be suitable.

  2. Mount Nyiragongo: Why DR Congo fears the explosive power of a lake
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57280509

    From Wikipedia:

    A limnic eruption, also known as a lake overturn, is a rare type of natural disaster in which dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) suddenly erupts from deep lake waters, forming a gas cloud capable of suffocating wildlife, livestock, and humans.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limnic_eruption

    1984: Lake Monoun, Cameroon – 37 people killed.
    1986: Lake Nyos, Cameroon – 1746 people killed.

  3. @USGSVolcanoes has made it official. After 157 days, over 40,000,000 cubic meters of lava, and a massive 229 meter (751 feet) tall addition to Halemaʻumaʻu [lava lake level], Kīlauea Volcano is no longer erupting.

    Kilauea Volcano is no longer erupting. Lava supply to the Halemaʻumaʻu lava lake has ceased and sulfur dioxide emissions have decreased to near pre-eruption background levels.

    Lava supply to the lava lake appears to have ceased between May 11th and 13th based upon elevation measurements of the lake surface that showed the surface was no longer rising. Dwindling lava supply over the previous month had caused the active lava lake to shrink to two small ponds by May 11th and was completely crusted over by May 20th. The last surface activity on the lake was observed on May 23nd. Changes in the lava lake have been accompanied by a drop in gas emissions to levels close to pre-eruption background level.

    https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/volcano-updates

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    John Hewson explains why he thinks an early federal election is increasingly inevitable. He begins his reasoning with, “Scott Morrison is starting to show that he is feeling the pressure of a ramp up in scrutiny. He is getting more combative, both in the pressers and in the Parliament. People want answers. His past brush-offs are wearing thin.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7271930/hewsons-view-why-an-early-federal-election-is-increasingly-inevitable/?cs=14258
    Michael Koziol asks, “This COVID outbreak is a vaccination wake-up call, but who will heed it?”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-covid-outbreak-is-a-vaccination-wake-up-call-but-who-will-heed-it-20210527-p57vnd.html
    But he says many Australians like science communicator Rose Drover who are under the age of 50 would be happy to take the AstraZeneca vaccine if it were offered to them, despite a blood clotting risk that led authorities to name the Pfizer jab as the preferred option for that cohort.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/meet-the-under-50s-who-are-itching-to-take-the-astrazeneca-vaccine-20210528-p57w5y.html
    The AIMN’s Rossleigh examines the Morrison government’s propensity to telling lies and not following through with promises.
    https://theaimn.com/scott-morrison-just-cut-my-grass/
    Cait Kelly tells us that epidemiologists are saying Scott Morrison’s claim COVID hotel quarantine is ‘99.9 per cent effective’ is wrong.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2021/05/30/morrison-coronavirus-hotel-quaratine/
    Stephen Odgers QC writes that we should tread carefully on sexual consent as he says some of these ‘reforms’ are dangerous. Some food for thought.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/tread-carefully-on-sexual-consent-some-of-these-reforms-are-dangerous-20210528-p57w3i.html
    Ankle bracelets and online monitoring would be used to keep watch on convicted terrorists for up to three years under laws Michaelia Cash wants passed by the end of the year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-law-would-allow-afp-to-track-terrorists-for-three-years-after-jail-release-20210528-p57vzw.html
    In this analysis Luke Henriques-Gomes explains how there is growing evidence that reforms to Australia’s ‘broken’ privatised job search system so far have delivered a windfall for providers but done little to help jobseekers find work. Another debacle that can be traced to governments’ obsession to reduce APS headcounts?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/30/we-are-just-money-to-them-why-australias-broken-privatised-job-search-system-needs-to-be-fixed
    Australia is already paying more for the federal government’s inaction on climate than fossil fuels bring in, analysts warn as missed economic opportunities mount, writes Cait Kelly.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/05/30/climate-change-inaction-cost/
    Democracy is broken. Or at least, gutter politics has dragged it off its pedestal. And certainly, if our quality of life is any measure, democracy is failing the majority of Australians. But there are solutions if the will is there, proposes Bronwyn Kelly.
    https://johnmenadue.com/our-democracy-is-broken-but-it-can-be-fixed/
    Popular tourist destinations in the most captivating corners of Australia have become no-go zones for insurers following the Black Summer bushfires, forcing pandemic-battered businesses to close or risk everything operating uninsured.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-didn-t-think-it-was-possible-why-bush-holidays-could-become-a-thing-of-the-past-20210529-p57w9x.html
    Ben Smee reports that an Australian startup working on a process to recycle textiles by turning worn-out fabric into raw materials says it has funding to build a world-first commercial-scale plant in Queensland.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/30/recycling-textile-waste-a-solution-exists-we-cant-go-backwards
    Joe Biden has unveiled $US3.6 trillion ($4.67 trillion) in tax increases on wealthy Americans and big corporations to pay for his plans to combat climate change, reduce income inequality and significantly expand the nation’s social safety net.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/biden-banks-on-us3-6-trillion-tax-hike-for-the-rich-20210529-p57wa9.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Golding

    Mark Knight

    From the US



  5. Has the lowest performing Liberal candidate in the recent Tasmanian state electorate of Lyons been given the equivalent of a Participation Certificate to run in the federal election in Lyons?

  6. Perhaps the time has come for the ALP to change its name and its thinking to something akin to the Social Democrats in Europe. The blue collar crew became small-thinking businesspeople during the Howard interregnum. Echoing similar trends in Europe and the US, the blue collar mob have much in common with the turkey-necked mobs of olde Alabama, with a love of nooses for those they disagree with.

  7. pritu

    The blue collar crew became small-thinking businesspeople during the Howard interregnum

    Nope. It was under Hawke+Keating. I was in the construction industry and reforms they made saw a stampede of tradies rushing to get ABNs and working as subbies rather than directly for the construction companies. The sainted “tradies” rather than the construction companies very soon became the people most likely to rip off workers.

  8. But he says many Australians like science communicator Rose Drover who are under the age of 50 would be happy to take the AstraZeneca vaccine if it were offered to them, despite a blood clotting risk that led authorities to name the Pfizer jab as the preferred option for that cohort.

    Where are the cries of “nanny state!” from the right wing?

    There’s obviously demand for the AZ vaccine in under 50s, if they were given the choice – market forces, anyone?

    Give people the information they need to decide, then give them what they want.

  9. poroti @ #7 Sunday, May 30th, 2021 – 7:42 am

    pritu

    The blue collar crew became small-thinking businesspeople during the Howard interregnum

    Nope. It was under Hawke+Keating. I was in the construction industry and reforms they made saw a stampede of tradies rushing to get ABNs and working as subbies rather than directly for the construction companies. The sainted “tradies” rather than the construction companies very soon became the people most likely to rip off workers.

    Computer says, ‘No’:

    The Australian Business Number (ABN) is a unique 11-digit identifier issued by the Australian Business Register (ABR) which is operated by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO). The ABN was introduced on 1 July 2000 by John Howard’s Liberal government as part of a major tax reform, which included the introduction of a GST.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Business_Number

  10. C@tmomma
    It may not have been THE abn but whatever the name at the time the fact remains there was a stampede of tradies to become a “business” and become sub contractors to the construction companies. That stampede happened after reforms made under Hawke+Keating.

  11. It may not have been THE abn but whatever the name at the time the fact remains there was a stampede of tradies to become a “business” and become sub contractors to the construction companies. That stampede happened after reforms made under Hawke+Keating.

    Writing off your “commercial vehicle” (boat-towing ute) as a business expense was definitely an incentive.

  12. Vietnam’s Health Minister says the new variant is a combination of the UK and Indian strains
    Nguyen Thanh Long says it is “very dangerous” and is more transmissible
    He says the new variant is responsible for a spike in cases in the South-East Asian country

  13. Okay everyone, time to buy an XBox, Playstation or Nintendo Switch:

    We’re forever banging on about exercise working to preserve the ageing brain from going downhill at a fast rate. Go for a walk, do some stretching, lift some weights.

    It’s a message for people of all ages, but particularly for older folk concerned about losing their thinking and memory abilities.

    A common obstacle, though, is that repetitive exercise is boring for many people. And it doesn’t demand a great deal of thinking power.

    So how about combining the physical with the mental and throw in some fun?

    This was the thinking behind a new study in which retirement-home residents played interactive video sports – boxing, 10-pin bowling, soccer, track and field, table tennis, beach volleyball – for 12 weeks.

    The result?
    The researchers found the participants who played the video games “recorded significant increases in the cognitive tests from baseline to three months compared to the other group, demonstrating improved cognitive performance”.

    At the same time, “they improved their physical performance, with significant increases in all four physical function tests”.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2021/05/29/video-games-memory-loss/

  14. I’m amazed at how the Reactionary Conservatives like to appropriate cultural touchstones in order to brand themselves. Now we have the Trumpists appropriating cigars and whiskey, to show they follow a man who neither drinks nor smokes 😆
    https://youtu.be/svmU4OMs6jY

  15. Jaeger at 8:11 am

    Writing off your “commercial vehicle” (boat-towing ute) as a business expense was definitely an incentive.

    There was quite a rapid change in the smoko shed . The , until recently fellow worker, tradies soon wore out their welcomes bragging about what they could and did claim as expenses and all the taxes they were not paying. Even more so when they bustards kept getting nicked for shenanigans when it came to paying people they hired. Not all but enough. All been rich green pasture for them ever since.

  16. Re: Kilauea, 40 million cubic metres of lava is equivalent in volume to 16,000 Olympic swimming pools, or more than 7% of the water in Sydney Harbour at high tide.

  17. Prof Marc Tennant
    @MarcTennant
    ·
    15h
    Victoria: WOW – you are closing in on 1 person in 100 getting a test in a single day!! This is the way to do this.
    GO HARD!! Test, Test and Test again.

    Well done!! Thank you.

  18. From John Hewson a few minutes ago.
    “What a hide! Did I see Morrison boasting that quarantine has been 99.99%effective? Wrong of course and he ducked this responsibility. He should fess up and commit to purpose built facilities. Our real challenge is yet to come when we finally open the international border.”

  19. It was the Tax File Number (TFN) that was introduced by the Hawke Government as a substitute for the abandoned “Australia Card”.

  20. Morning all and thanks BK. A reasonable Insiders panel this morning.

    Insiders ABC
    @InsidersABC
    ·
    1h
    Coming up on #Insiders with host @David_Speers:

    • @DanTehanWannon is in the interview seat
    • @mpbowers talks the week inwith @AmandaCoppNews
    • On the️are @vanOnselenP,@PatsKarvelas, and @KarenMMiddleton

    See you at 9am#auspol

  21. The Texas legislature on Saturday moved closer to enacting dozens of new restrictions on the voting process, as Republican lawmakers reached a deal that imposes a raft of hurdles on casting ballots by mail and enhances civil and criminal penalties for election administrators, voters and those seeking to assist them.

    The measure would make it illegal for election officials to send out unsolicited mail ballot applications, empower partisan poll watchers and ban practices such as drop boxes and drive-through voting that were popularized in heavily Democratic Harris County last year, according to a final draft distributed by legislative staff to voting right advocates Saturday morning.

    In a last-minute addition, language was inserted in the bill making it easier to overturn an election, no longer requiring evidence that fraud actually altered an outcome of a race — but rather only that enough ballots were illegally cast that could have made a difference.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/texas-voting-restrictions/2021/05/29/86923248-be25-11eb-9c90-731aff7d9a0d_story.html

  22. Okay everyone, time to buy an XBox, Playstation or Nintendo Switch

    It’s always fun to see the original headline before it was edited – in this case:
    “Granny gamers: Video games great therapy for memory loss and fitness”.

    The only credible exercise/fitness “game” I’ve encountered was Nintendo’s Wii Fit + Balance Board controller: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_Fit
    Fun, yet surprisingly tiring. (I nearly bought one at the time, but Nintendo released the Wii U console and muddied the waters.)

    Guitar Hero/Band Hero might qualify, but – especially with the drum controller – experience teaches you to optimise for the most bang per (physio appointment) buck.

    Memory loss is harder to measure, but there are many video games where learning – and exploiting – the “map” is definitely an advantage.

    There are other alternatives, though:
    Hot tub health kick: why a long bath is almost as good for you as a long run
    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/may/26/hot-tub-health-kick-why-a-long-bath-is-almost-as-good-for-you-as-a-long-run

  23. Easy to imagine. Cos the media is still paying out on Victoria anyway.

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Tony Shaw Books Retweeted
    David Marler
    @Qldaah
    Victoria, why you’re in lockdown. South Australia Health had a man sharing a room with an infected covid-19 person. That man was moved to the Playford next to Wollert man.

    Imagine the media shitstorm if this had happened in Victoria. #springst
    Melbourne passengers on the Ghan removed, more detail revealed on Adelaide medi-hotel leak
    Victorian passengers travelling on the Ghan have been off-loaded in outback South Australia because of COVID-19 concerns, as SA Health authorities reveal the person who likely spread coronavirus to a…
    abc.net.au

  24. Jaeger:

    I was reading about that yesterday. Not only unlicensed but no longer requiring training.

    What could go wrong?!

  25. Pat Karvelas has just tweeted, “Ready to say some stuff on #insiders”.
    I wonder what that will be. Higgins stuff perhaps.

  26. Well Texas is the world in leading in guns, but not their brains.

    Texas was the state with the highest number of registered weapons in the United States in 2019
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/215655/number-of-registered-weapons-in-the-us-by-state/

    No surprise there.

    Another win for China vs America:
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3006081/china-set-launch-100-day-crackdown-illegal-firearms-deadly-or

    Private gun ownership is strictly prohibited in China and those who break the law can face up to seven years in prison. Despite that fact, the online market for illegal weapons is buoyant, with some vendors seeking to evade detection by offering firearms in kit form.

    Despite already having some of the world’s strictest gun control laws, Beijing is about to embark on a nationwide campaign to round up illegal firearms as part of its preparations for a trouble-free celebration of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in October.

    The Ministry of Public Security said last week that the 100-day campaign would get under way at the end of the month, with its primary targets being e-commerce platforms that offer guns for sale and delivery firms that transport them around the country.

    The authorities would “intensify monitoring of online activity, increase supervision of courier companies and cut off distribution channels”, deputy public security minister Sun Lijun said.

    Private gun ownership is strictly prohibited in China and those who break the law can face up to seven years in prison. Photo: AFP

    Sun, however, said that no stone would be left unturned in upholding and enforcing the law, which in recent years has been extended to include everything from air rifles to replica guns and even toy pistols.

    China is doing what Australia did.

  27. Not much sign of lock down in Melbourne in the Insiders studio. Speers and Karvelas able to go into work.

  28. Dr Louise Hansen TulipRat
    @drlouisehansen
    · Jan 16
    My name is Tharnicaa. I’ve been detained by the Australian Government for 1047 days. What’s your name and where do you live? #HomeToBilo #Auspol

    Patrick Smith
    @Smithersss
    ·
    32m
    What in God’s name are we doing to innocent children?

    It’s God’s work, apparently.

  29. China reaches 600 million jabs, with 100 million in 5 days:
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224796.shtml

    The Chinese mainland has administered more than 600 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine as of Friday, and with an ever-accelerating speed, it took China only five days to bring the number from 500 million to 600 million.

    Since the Chinese mainland administered the first 100 million doses on March 27, the pace of the world’s largest vaccination drive has been accelerated constantly. Finishing the second 100 million doses took China only 25 days, but the sixth 100 million only took five days, according to figures released by the National Health Commission (NHC).

  30. As India halts exports, South East Asia goes to China:
    https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/south-asia-turns-china-covid-vaccines-after-india-halts-exports

    NEW DELHI – South Asian countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are turning to China for vaccines for Covid 19 after India suspended vaccine exports due to critical shortages at home. Analysts say this will help Beijing increase its clout in the strategic Indian Ocean region where it has been building influence.

    China has given 1.1 million doses of vaccines made by its Sinopharm Group company to Sri Lanka. Bangladesh received its first donation of half a million vaccines from China this month while Nepal has been promised an additional one million shots.

  31. That boast from Morrison was shades of Howard’s ‘Australians have never had it so good’ (or wtte).

  32. PvO agrees with me, in that the only reason he can think of why Morrison won’t build quarantine stations is that they were Labor’s idea first.

    I’d go further: it probably wouldn’t matter who thought of it first, unless it was a flunky, paid to advise privately and to sign over the credit to Morrison. Morrison doesn’t like to be seen taking advice from anyone. He has conversations with God. He doesn’t need worldly advice.

    Add that to Morrison’s famous fear of failure, and there you have it.

  33. I love the footage of Dan Tehan being a massive hypocrite and playing politics with the last Victorian lockdown. 😆

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