Essential Research: budget, COVID-19, election timing

Yet more polling data on the federal budget, plus a relatively weak result for the government on COVID-19 management.

Highlights of the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which is lacking the really interesting stuff (the monthly leadership ratings and quarterly dump of voting intention), but covers a fair bit of ground on the budget:

• Respondents were asked whether the budget would be good or bad for various groups and interests, results for which appear to be heavily influenced by general attitudes towards the party bringing down the budget. In this cases, the budget was reckoned to be most beneficial to “people who are well off” (51% good, 8% bad) and big businesses (49% and 7%), but scored net negative ratings for people on lower incomes (30% and 33%) and “you personally” (22% and 25%). However, the budget rated more strongly across the board than last year’s, with net ratings 23% higher for the economy overall, 15% higher for families, 12% higher for younger Australians and 11% higher for average working people.

• The budget has apparently impressed respondents as being good for women, particularly compared with last year’s. Thirty-four per cent rated that it put women’s interests ahead of men’s versus 19% for vice-versa and 47% who thought it balanced, compared with respective figures last year of 14%, 31% and 54%. It would also appear easy to persuade respondents that budgets put the interests of young people ahead of old: 32% thought so this year compared with 28% for vice-versa and 40% for balanced, albeit that this is quite a lot narrower than last year’s split of 45% to 21% with 34% for balanced. As usual with a Coalition budget, many more respondents felt it put the interests of businesses ahead of employees than vice-versa (49% versus 13% with 38% for balanced, compared with 14%, 42% and 45% for last year).

• A regular question on governments’ handling of COVID-19 gave the federal government what I believe to be its weakest good rating to date of 58%, down four on last month, with the poor rating up a point to 18%. For the state governments, good ratings are down five in New South Wales to 68%, up five for Victoria to 63% and down four for Queensland to 68%.

• As did last week’s Resolve Strategic poll, and no doubt most other polls that have ever been conducted on the subject, this one finds strong opposition to an early election: 61% agreed an election this year would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister”, compared with 39% for the alternative proposition that an early election “will be good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,126 comments on “Essential Research: budget, COVID-19, election timing”

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  1. The smart move would be to have Daley and Minns mutually obliterate and an untainted third candidate ride in on her white horse

    Like Jim Hacker.
    Or Scott Morrison.

  2. Lizzie says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 10:01 pm

    There is no logic? No logic to the crimes made Donald Trump?

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 10:03 pm

    Amazing how quickly it was produced as well. Almost like it was copied and pasted.

    How quickly you reply to lizzie’s post.

  3. With his senior counsel forced to withdraw, Bryce reneging on taking the witness stand, and his former wife testifying against him, the wheels of Roberts-Smith’s defamation suit (due to commence on June 7) are looking decidedly wobbly.

    When you sue an outfit like “Nine Entertainment”, whose mastheads include “The Age” and the “SMH”, you can rest assured that the media coverage will be at saturation level – that’s if it’s not settled beforehand. And you don’t turn up to a former governor-general’s home without an invite.

  4. Zerlo and P1 are in stiff competition. A golden outcome would be them to fight with each other. We could take bets on who comes up with most irreverent point and who gives up first.

  5. Andrew Earlwood: You have very short memories of that final week of the NSW 2019 election campaign, which Michael Daley totally botched. Not just that now infamous video, but also that disasterous debate performance against Gladys. And what were all those constant daily news conferences at the Sydney Football Stadium all about?
    Make Daley leader again, and Labor will be opposition for a long time to come!
    Not saying Minns is the answer, maybe Ryan Park or Paul Scully might be better, but anyone but Daley, please.

  6. Daley didn’t go too well because NSW Labor didn’t really have much in the way of innovative, concrete policies. Same thing is going to happen to any leader.

  7. Herald Sun 29/05
    “It boasted its hotel quarantine was the gold standard, even though it turns out the now stood-down official in charge wasn’t just breaking his own rules but hiring his gym mates on $100,000 salaries”.
    Hiring gym mates on 100k?

    1st I have heard of this.
    It must have been the Victorian General Manager of Infection Protection and Control who was stood down for refusing to take a covid test and also refusing to wear a mask in a quarantine hotel.

  8. Not a short memory of the final week of the campaign at all Evan. It was bad.

    However I think it was the culmination of the party having to switch leaders at the last moment and Daley being half cocked for that campaign as a consequence.

    Speaking of short memories, I thought Daley was pretty effective in throat punching Alan Jones and the conga line of LNP/NRL and Rugger stadium suckholes.

    So he can land a punch. Perhaps with 2 years preparation he can actually execute a whole campaign next time.

    Lots of politicians run disastrous campaigns – or disastrous parts of a campaign and learn and come back better next time round. It took Biden 32 years to nail a presidential campaign. Howard 9 years to nail a federal campaign. Hodgeman 8 years to nail a Tasmanian campaign. Kennett lost at least one victorian elections before he won (or was it 2). Barnett in WA was a loser until he wasn’t.

    Daley actually dominated both debates until he unravelled in the last 10 minutes of the Penrith one. Why? Because he was hopeless? That would be the LNP/media/Minns narrative. But perhaps the cumulative effects of taking over at the last minute and the pressure of that last week simply took their toll. Perhaps, if given the chance, he’ll be better prepared next time. It’s possible. There is heaps of prescient for it.

    Anyway. I don’t hold a brief for Michael Daley. However I am definitely a ABM and will be mightily pissed if head office turn the leadership contest into Kabuki.

  9. Until the NSW governments corruption is well known in the community, then their is basically nothing Labor can do to win.

  10. ”However I think it was the culmination of the party having to switch leaders at the last moment and Daley being half cocked for that campaign as a consequence.”

    Certainly a risky strategy. Occasionally it works, e.g.

    Hayden —> Hawke
    Some guy —> Ardern

  11. Here’s one for the Wombat:

    Fecal transplants—which are a real thing—appear to somehow improve response the PD1 checkpoint inhibition.

    Two donors with very different microbiota composition were used, and 10 patients received treatment and reintroduction of anti-PD-1 therapy. Three patients achieved meaningful response; there were two partial responses and one complete response. All responders received transplant originating from Donor 1.

    That’s some good shit, man!

  12. UK’s infection rate is starting to climb, despite its vaccination progress.

    Is this simply the Indian variant spreading among the unvaccinated? Or is it a sign that the relative weakness in AstraZeneca is showing?

    A study by Public Health England found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant two weeks after the second dose.

    That compared with 93% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 “Kent” strain which is Britain’s dominant COVID variant.

    Two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the Indian variant compared with 66% effectiveness against the Kent variant, PHE said.

    Btw the article seems misleadingly titled. The actual data quoted in the article show that Pfizer is 88% effective against the Indian strain (down from 93%) whereas AstraZeneca is only 60% effective against the Indian strain (down from 66%).

    The article attempts to put a positive spin on this. I can’t see why.

  13. Come on boerwar, time to write a stern letter to Xi and break out the bayonet. How dare they dismiss us in such a manner, no respect. 😉
    Australia’s military is too weak to be a worthy opponent of China, and if it dares to interfere in a military conflict for example in the Taiwan Straits, its forces will be among the first to be hit, Song said. “Australia must not think it can hide from China if it provokes.”

    Australia is within range of China’s conventional warhead-equipped DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, observers pointed out.

  14. Cud Chewer at 2:50 am
    Given all the ‘Rah ! Rah ! Rah !’ in the UK about the vaccination numbers I reckon the general population could be forgiven for thinking it is “all over” and so drop their guards which in turn means –> increased transmission. We’ve seen many a case where restrictions have been lifted too early and the result is a resurgence of cases.

  15. Kelpies. Always up at the crack of dawn. Actually I can’t even see a crack of dawn yet. Sigh. 😆
    Then it’s off to the forced march down the beach and back. I’ll be glad when I hand this canine harridan back! She is beautiful though. 🙂

  16. When things are in a particularly low ebb for the New South Wales ALP, reminiscing about a pretty average performer like Michael Daley who has one or two modest highlights seems odd.

  17. Come on boerwar, time to write a stern letter to Xi and break out the bayonet. How dare they dismiss us in such a manner, no respect.

    They’re just being “racist”.

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