Essential Research: budget, COVID-19, election timing

Yet more polling data on the federal budget, plus a relatively weak result for the government on COVID-19 management.

Highlights of the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which is lacking the really interesting stuff (the monthly leadership ratings and quarterly dump of voting intention), but covers a fair bit of ground on the budget:

• Respondents were asked whether the budget would be good or bad for various groups and interests, results for which appear to be heavily influenced by general attitudes towards the party bringing down the budget. In this cases, the budget was reckoned to be most beneficial to “people who are well off” (51% good, 8% bad) and big businesses (49% and 7%), but scored net negative ratings for people on lower incomes (30% and 33%) and “you personally” (22% and 25%). However, the budget rated more strongly across the board than last year’s, with net ratings 23% higher for the economy overall, 15% higher for families, 12% higher for younger Australians and 11% higher for average working people.

• The budget has apparently impressed respondents as being good for women, particularly compared with last year’s. Thirty-four per cent rated that it put women’s interests ahead of men’s versus 19% for vice-versa and 47% who thought it balanced, compared with respective figures last year of 14%, 31% and 54%. It would also appear easy to persuade respondents that budgets put the interests of young people ahead of old: 32% thought so this year compared with 28% for vice-versa and 40% for balanced, albeit that this is quite a lot narrower than last year’s split of 45% to 21% with 34% for balanced. As usual with a Coalition budget, many more respondents felt it put the interests of businesses ahead of employees than vice-versa (49% versus 13% with 38% for balanced, compared with 14%, 42% and 45% for last year).

• A regular question on governments’ handling of COVID-19 gave the federal government what I believe to be its weakest good rating to date of 58%, down four on last month, with the poor rating up a point to 18%. For the state governments, good ratings are down five in New South Wales to 68%, up five for Victoria to 63% and down four for Queensland to 68%.

• As did last week’s Resolve Strategic poll, and no doubt most other polls that have ever been conducted on the subject, this one finds strong opposition to an early election: 61% agreed an election this year would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister”, compared with 39% for the alternative proposition that an early election “will be good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,126 comments on “Essential Research: budget, COVID-19, election timing”

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  1. Land of the Free – Donald Trump:
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-eric-swalwell-lawsuit-january-6-memo-b1853743.html

    Donald Trump told a court he has “absolute immunity” in a case brought against him by a Democratic congressman for inciting the January insurrection on the US Capitol.

    An attorney for the former president argued that allegations against Mr Trump were in contravention of the absolute immunity conveyed on US presidents, and that the 74-year-old’s words were taken out of context.

    Eric Swalwell, the Democrat who is bringing the case against Mr Trump, accuses the former president of inciting the 6 January attack on the country’s legislature.

    According to Mr Trump’s attorney, “the president’s absolute immunity forecloses the jurisdiction of this court”.

  2. Minns’ chief strategist, spear carrier and mutual ongoing friend with the beneficent ChiComm Jamie, George Houssus invited Joe Hildebrand – the Simp himself – to be a guest speaker at my branch meeting this month. From the email invite:

    “ Joe is an outspoken political commentator with an acute interest in the future of the ALP. He has a huge following and is a frequent political contributor in the DailyTelegraph, 2GB, and morning TV shows.

    Joe will be joining us to discuss his views on the future of the Labor Party, what it needs to do to win elections, and ways to reconnect with traditional values and policies. ”

    __________

    Comforting to know that the putative Leader of the party has such a crack team on the case. …

  3. C@t

    And we still have a powerful lobby insisting that we must drop our defences at any cost..
    Gotta live with the virus.. and its new and nastier strains, right?

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:39 pm

    Vietnam has detected a new Covid Variant which is a mix of the UK and Indian strains, is more transmissible by air and replicates more quickly.
    Oh. Boy.

    ————

    This is the fault of the west by prioritizing vaccinations to rich countries says:
    Dr. Jerome Kim, Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jO2SUG9eNHc&t=58s

  5. Zerlo,
    BFD. Trump saying it doesn’t prove it.
    Chairman Xi and the Chinese courts have abandoned fair trials, on the other hand.

    Zerlo, go back to your handlers and tell them we aren’t buying what your selling. Never have, never will. Just give up, eh?

  6. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:45 pm

    Wank alert Wank alert.

    Don’t give up your day job.

    —–

    Protecting a Dictator and Murderer, and a qannon believer.

  7. Cud,
    I froze when I read that. It’s from an article in the Washington Post.
    Honestly, Morrison’s encouragement of complacency in the pursuit of economic recovery is verging on the criminally negligent.

  8. It does show just how vacuous Morrison is. Like all 3 creatures from Wizard of Oz in one. No heart, no brain, no courage.

  9. Zerlo,
    Fyi, I’m only reading your unmitigated crapola and wanktastic verbal ejaculate because I am on my phone not my computer.
    Don’t dare think that I take you or what you say about me seriously.

  10. https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-grand-jury-witness-told-to-prepare-for-testimony/7f50827e-eb87-4b65-85a7-7bb7e719cbd1

    Manhattan prosecutors pursuing a criminal case against former US president Donald Trump, his company and its executives have told at least one witness to prepare for grand jury testimony, according to a person familiar with the matter – a signal that the lengthy investigation is moving into an advanced stage.
    The development suggests that the Manhattan district attorney’s office is poised to move from collecting evidence to presenting what is likely a complex case to a grand jury, one that could result in the jury considering criminal charges.

    It’s interesting that some on PB are willing to defend Donald Trump, but still bash China..

  11. Bluff and bluster are often pointers to a perception of weakness rather than strength.

    The recent statements by the CCP and their local agents in Australia prompt one to think that there may be some currents running below the surface in China which the leadership is afraid it might lose control of.

    I imagine that having Hong Kong as it was till a year or two ago had a fair bit of usefulness to many powerful people in China wanting to do all sorts of legal and illegal business. Also, having a US administration that is engaging in a bit of real pushback rather than the fake stuff that Trump used to do will have unbalanced quite a few internal relationships and external relationships.

    I imagine that Xi may well need all the food tasters and bodyguards he can get hold of if he continues on his current course.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:55 pm

    Ah but you are on a political blog, so you must think politics seriously.

    I also take you serious because you are a hypocrite.

  13. At the NSW election to be held 25/3/2023 I will be voting for whoever the Labor candidate is in my blue ribbon “Liberal” Legislative Assembly seat. I will put a “1” against the Labor team for the Legislative Council, where my vote does count. This will be regardless of who the Labor leader is.

    Labor doesn’t need to persuade me, I will never vote Liberal. However, they need to change the minds of lots of my fellow NSW people who thought that Liberal was the way to go last time to change their minds. Is Daley the one to do it? Is Minns?

    *Note: the Labor candidate will have no chance of winning. I do reserve the right to vote strategically against the Liberal candidate should a suitable Centre-left independent or minor party candidate with a chance of taking the seat emerge

  14. Cud,
    At least the Vietnamese are taking it seriously.
    Oh and the other thing Morrison is trying to do is give the impression that he has everything under control so that we can reward him with our votes. Hence the premature electioneering and ‘everything’s coming up roses’ photo ops of him picking strawberries and driving prime movers.

  15. ajm says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:57 pm

    The same could be said of what Donald Trump and the Republican Party have been doing in less than 2 years…. I hear Louis DeJoy is still trying to crush the postal office.

  16. Zerlo
    Donald Trump problem is he wanted to abuse the USA as Xi is abusing China. China lost to XI, we are yet to see if the USA lost against Trump ( in my view). Poor China has another dictator. Are you going to defend Mao as well?

  17. Zerlo, you disingenuous nong, I am defending the Rule of Law, not Donald freaking Trump.
    Do try harder to get Brownie points. Like by making a logical argument.

  18. boerwar:

    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:19 pm

    [‘Mavis
    China and Russia, two despotisms, are doing tag team.’]

    Yes, and their combined military poses a real threat for the West. Neither country has really tasted democracy, though it was thought China would eventually lean this way due to its capitalist economy. Russia improved under Gorbachev and Yeltsin but quickly returned to almost despotism under Putin. The only promising sign is that under Biden, the isolationist policies of Trump have been ditched, the US keen to reassert its authority.

  19. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 9:06 pm

    Zerlo, you disingenuous nong, I am defending the Rule of Law, not Donald freaking Trump.
    Do try harder to get Brownie points. Like by making a logical argument.

    ——

    Your attacks on China says otherwise, and yes you are defending Trump.

    Negative anything on China
    Positive anything west.

    This how PB goes.

  20. Zerlo @ #2066 Saturday, May 29th, 2021 – 9:04 pm

    ajm says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:57 pm

    The same could be said of what Donald Trump and the Republican Party have been doing in less than 2 years…. I hear Louis DeJoy is still trying to crush the postal office.

    That has precisely zero relevance to what I wrote. You really need to get fresh instructions.

  21. Lizzie:

    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 9:05 pm

    [‘There seems to be a lot of nonsense on PB currently.’]

    Are you referring to technical issues or content? I’ve been having a technical issue like not being able to post.

  22. ajm,
    Good point about the Hong Kong chimera acting to discombobulate the West until recently. To which I would add the aggression towards the Philippines and the construction of the fake islands also contributing to a ripping off of the mask of Chinese congeniality.

  23. Mavis

    It’s the content my dear. Technical difficulties are a little frustrating but the repetition and fruitless arguments go nowhere and aren’t worth the time.

  24. ‘ajm says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:57 pm

    Bluff and bluster are often pointers to a perception of weakness rather than strength.

    The recent statements by the CCP and their local agents in Australia prompt one to think that there may be some currents running below the surface in China which the leadership is afraid it might lose control of.’
    ———————————————–
    Xi is showing signs of justified paranoia. There have been reports of attempts on his life. When you execute around 5,000 people a year, and you dis-empower the people around you, you create a certain tension!

  25. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 9:14 pm

    Zerlo,
    No one is forcing you to come on this blog.
    Or are they?
    ——–

    No one is forcing you to comment anything bad about Asia or China but are they?

    Nobody is forcing you to reply or post about Asia or China, but are they?

    Nobody is forcing you to reply to others or make personal attacks, but are they?

  26. Lizzie:

    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 9:16 pm
    [‘Mavis

    It’s the content my dear. Technical difficulties are a little frustrating but the repetition and fruitless arguments go nowhere and aren’t worth the time.’]

    Thanks. Technical issues can be fixed but I don’t know that the content can.

  27. It’s interesting that some on PB are willing to defend Donald Trump, but still bash China..

    No-one here defends Trump, not even LvT and Bukey Boy anymore. Stop throwing around false allegations. You’re starting to sound like P1, or Guytaur.

  28. ”PB lives and dies by its interminable arguments.”

    If peace eventually broke out in the Labor vs Green war, we’ll still have China.

    By the way, which side won Rudd vs Gillard? Hostilities seem to have subsided.

  29. C@t

    I actually think that the message that Scomo has stuffed up vaccination and quarantine is slowly filtering through down to the Channel 7 viewers and other lower forms of life..

    Credit to Albo for realising this and (finally) getting on the attack.

    Scomo is gradually losing his covid bonus marks.

  30. “C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 2:10 pm

    A fair bit of rewriting history there. I questioned whether supporting a woman to be the head of the NSW Legislative Council was a valid reason to support her just because of her gender, as opposed to not supporting her because she would not fulfill the independent role of the President of the Legislative Council, simply being a lap dog of Gladys Berejiklian. She was not supported by Labor for that reason alone. They probably also knew that Matthew mason-Cox wouldn’t be supported by Gladys Berejiklian so had nothing to lose by putting him up to take her place.

    Now you can campaign for whomever you choose but you would be putting up in neon lights what a bloody hypocrite you are to campaign for the party that just suggested fining and jailing Australian-Indians seeking to come home to Australia from India. India is part of Asia too you know!?!

    Also, it’s highly unlikely Michael Daley, if that’s who you are referring to, will become leader of NSW Labor again.

    It wasn’t about Daley I was discussing. Didn’t Minns say something controversial about Asians because of which he had huge swing against him in 2019 elections (in a safe seat of ALP) and now his is a marginal seat.
    It is not the firsttime Australians voted against their economic interest but based on emotion.

  31. If peace eventually broke out in the Labor vs Green war, we’ll still have China.

    Don’t worry, there’s already the new “wokeism” war brewing that’s already seen some fiery skirmishes.

    By the way, which side won Rudd vs Gillard?

    The Coalition.

  32. Trump pardons Steve Bannon.
    Trump pardons Roger Stone.
    Trump pardons Michael Flynn – Former National Security Advisor (to protect Russia).
    Trump separated over 1,000 Families.
    Trump promoted violence at Capital Hill on January 6th.
    Trump interfered with Ukraine (who Russia has long standing interest in).
    Trump ignored right wing domestic terrorists.
    Trump ignored local / state issues.
    Trump ignited Asian hate and BLM issues. – protestors accross the country in USA – Trump calls out thugs to kidnap and question.
    Trump cut important services from national park rangers to food banks.
    Trump has tariffs against many countries and attempted tariffs on Australia.
    Trump killed nearly 600,000 Americans because his lawyers his pillow maker, all believed qannon conspiracy theorists.
    Trump diverted from military funds to build boarder wall.

    —–

    In the UK:

    Boris Tried to sell NHS.
    Boris gives more power to police to attack protestors.
    Boris gives home improvement which UK tax payers paying.
    Boris believes covid19 does not kill people ‘injected with coronavirus live on television to prove it wasn’t dangerous’.
    Boris gives UK brexit – the UK brexit would give UK government to be more corruption.
    Boris denies saying ‘pile of bodies’.

    There could be alot more.

    Australia:

    Bush Fires.
    Centrelink.
    Robodebt – thousands died.
    Covid19 / Ruby / hotel quarantine failure.
    debt failure.
    nbn failure.
    Droughts
    Taking overseas trip to hawaii – during bush fires.
    ignoring budget increases for health and fire services.

    Anything that the west has done easily strips out whatever China has done.

    “surrounded at all times by that many criminals, there is a solid chance you’re also a criminal” – Seth Meyers

  33. Ven,
    I wouldn’t know what Minns said back then but I reiterate, if you want to campaign for the Coalition, and that’s your choice entirely, just don’t forget about the things their politicians, such as John Howard especially, said about Asians, and which Prime Minister, Bob Hawke, let the Tienanmin refugees stay here. Also which party has an Asian Australian Leader in the Senate.

  34. Earlwood

    The smart move would be to have Daley and Minns mutually obliterate and an untainted third candidate ride in on her white horse

  35. Really proving what an ignoramus who never learns tonight, aren’t you Player One?
    For the slow learners such as yourself, whenever I am on my phone, like I am tonight, and which I made plain earlier, I cannot avail myself of C+ to filter your puerile insanities out.
    One day you’ll get it.

  36. C@tmomma @ #2097 Saturday, May 29th, 2021 – 9:57 pm

    Really proving what an ignoramus who never learns tonight, aren’t you Player One?
    For the slow learners such as yourself, whenever I am on my phone, like I am tonight, and which I made plain earlier, I cannot avail myself of C+ to filter your puerile insanities out.
    One day you’ll get it.

    Sure, C@t. Everyone here believes you.

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