Essential Research: budget, COVID-19, election timing

Yet more polling data on the federal budget, plus a relatively weak result for the government on COVID-19 management.

Highlights of the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which is lacking the really interesting stuff (the monthly leadership ratings and quarterly dump of voting intention), but covers a fair bit of ground on the budget:

• Respondents were asked whether the budget would be good or bad for various groups and interests, results for which appear to be heavily influenced by general attitudes towards the party bringing down the budget. In this cases, the budget was reckoned to be most beneficial to “people who are well off” (51% good, 8% bad) and big businesses (49% and 7%), but scored net negative ratings for people on lower incomes (30% and 33%) and “you personally” (22% and 25%). However, the budget rated more strongly across the board than last year’s, with net ratings 23% higher for the economy overall, 15% higher for families, 12% higher for younger Australians and 11% higher for average working people.

• The budget has apparently impressed respondents as being good for women, particularly compared with last year’s. Thirty-four per cent rated that it put women’s interests ahead of men’s versus 19% for vice-versa and 47% who thought it balanced, compared with respective figures last year of 14%, 31% and 54%. It would also appear easy to persuade respondents that budgets put the interests of young people ahead of old: 32% thought so this year compared with 28% for vice-versa and 40% for balanced, albeit that this is quite a lot narrower than last year’s split of 45% to 21% with 34% for balanced. As usual with a Coalition budget, many more respondents felt it put the interests of businesses ahead of employees than vice-versa (49% versus 13% with 38% for balanced, compared with 14%, 42% and 45% for last year).

• A regular question on governments’ handling of COVID-19 gave the federal government what I believe to be its weakest good rating to date of 58%, down four on last month, with the poor rating up a point to 18%. For the state governments, good ratings are down five in New South Wales to 68%, up five for Victoria to 63% and down four for Queensland to 68%.

• As did last week’s Resolve Strategic poll, and no doubt most other polls that have ever been conducted on the subject, this one finds strong opposition to an early election: 61% agreed an election this year would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister”, compared with 39% for the alternative proposition that an early election “will be good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,126 comments on “Essential Research: budget, COVID-19, election timing”

Comments Page 41 of 43
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  2. Which article are we talking about now, the most recent one linked by boerwar, or the other yet to be published paper?

  3. The junior woodchucks deployed by Comrade Xi appear to be bursting out of their nappy-level understanding of global diplomacy.

    The G7 (which includes 3 of the 5 permanent UN Security Council members), is showing its solidarity against China on a number of levels – and the woodchucks are squealing…

    ‘China reacted angrily on Thursday to a joint statement issued by the EU and Japan following a virtual leaders’ summit, in which Brussels and Tokyo voiced concern about tensions in the South and East China Seas, where there are longstanding territorial and maritime disputes.

    In the joint statement, the EU and Japan also stressed the importance of peace across the Taiwan Strait, and pledged to coordinate closely on regional issues including Hong Kong where the Chinese government has tightened an authoritarian grip as well as Xinjiang, where it has committed grave rights abuses against Uyghurs.

    ‘The videoconference between European Council President Charles Michel, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga was routine — with the leaders reiterating their friendship and pledging to cooperate on an array of issues including the continuing coronavirus pandemic.

    The joint statement was also relatively unremarkable, echoing comments that G7 foreign ministers made in a statement last week. “We remain seriously concerned about the situation in the East and South China Seas and strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo and increase tensions,” the leaders said.

    But China reacted furiously, insisting that the statement was out of line.

    “The remarks made by the EU and Japan have completely gone beyond the norm of developing bilateral relations,” a spokesperson for the Chinese mission to the EU said in a statement. “Such remarks undermine international peace and stability, damage mutual understanding and trust between countries in the region, harm the interests of third parties and run counter to what they claim ‘working for a more secure, democratic and stable world.’”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/china-lashes-out-at-eu-japan-statement-as-g7-raise-pressure-on-beijing/

  5. Whatever the plan is, it feels especially cunning.

    “Michael Daley
    @michaeldaleyMP
    Sorry to have seen that Jodi was forced out.

    Members must get their say on their next leader.”

  8. boerwar says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 5:55 pm

    Zerlo says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 5:25 pm
    …..
    WHO is trying to find some sort of gotchya moment.
    …’
    ———————————–
    Maaate… have you forgotten the criminal delay with which WHO announced that there actually WAS a pandemic?

    —————

    A pandemic which was spread by USA, India, hand full of European countries ?

    Due to internal politics, lack of care, lack of responsibility? inadequate pre-paredness ?

    Come on boewar, this stupid bitch-slapping should have ended this argument ages ago if the west plunged more money into healthcare and detection rather than weapons and buying votes.

  9. Anyway swim time.

    Much too cold and windy and the surf this afternoon looked like a washing machine gone berserk.

    Maybe the weather’s better in Bira.

  10. DisplayName says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 6:47 pm

    China is doing a much better job of losing themselves friends than boerwar ever could :P.

    China is burning there soft-power on a vary large bonfire.

  11. DisplayName says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 6:47 pm

    China is doing a much better job of losing themselves friends than boerwar ever could :P.

    China has bigger economy than USA/UK combined.

    That is why USA and the west are attacking China – their economy.

  17. The west are too busy telling what other countries what to do, selling weapons, rather than focusing on it’s own shit, including controlling the pandemic.

  18. DisplayNamesays:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 6:38 pm

    Which article are we talking about now, the most recent one linked by boerwar, or the other yet to be published paper?

    I commenting on the African Swine Flu article that Boerwar had linked.

    p.s. Both temperature and water beautiful. :))

  19. I see Zerlo#2, the Zerlo who can spell and compose a readable sentence in English, has taken over the “Zerlo” keyboard.

    Welcome Zerlo#2.

    It’s getting pretty obvious what the “Zerlo” game is.

  24. Scotty’s election message to his party:
    We have successfully managed the pandemic and it would be dangerous to change.

    In Scomo world.

  26. Who the hell is encouraging Michael Daley to run again!?! Do Labor want to be guaranteed to lose the next NSW state election!?! Just the thought of it has pissed Ven off mightily. I despair.

  28. Michael Daley’s had a go and failed miserably. He apparently thinks that he can be resurrected, John Howard style – it would seem unlikely. NSW Labor needs a fresh face and a fresh direction (or at least a direction).

  29. Steve777 @ #1962 Saturday, May 29th, 2021 – 7:18 pm

    Michael Daley’s had a go and failed miserably. He apparently thinks that he can be resurrected, John Howard style – it would seem unlikely. NSW Labor needs a fresh face and a fresh direction (or at least a direction).

    Well, Howard insulted the Asians and lived to fight another day… 😀

    Michael Daley is no John Howard and the Coalition are a more formidable opposition to Labor these days.

  31. Listening to the Treasurer introducing the PM to the meeting as Scomo simply made me think that they are desperate to pretend he’s a friendly personality even though they must know he’s a nasty bastard at heart.

  32. That’s the last time I’ll post a “Daily Mail” article on the purported source of C.19 but in the wake of it, I think I’m more knowledgeable on scientific method & associated issues. My thanks to the edifiers – eg, EGT, Itza, BB, BW, D & M, P1, Display Name, Zerlo.
    _______________________________

    I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news with this post. No one’s going to live past their 150 birthday, so those on the cusp should get their affairs in order:

    https://www.livescience.com/human-life-span-limit-150-found.html?utm_source=Selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=LVS_newsletter&utm_content=LVS_newsletter+&utm_term=6636498&m_i=B6i2MQlvFCtYmBAb2Z07B74HzSmMc9uECLA70RmM6LzfuKMKn8069QSrYQgiCZ34qvAM7QzPvjAx94pubN85GLKT15FWg8ZNn5cethSBBf&lrh=25f906472b12cdd513ad18c658ff4f7a33fb3db4f23d726a7285e99a19b7a0cf

  33. I wouldn’t write Michael Daley off – only had 4 months in the Oppo role before.

    And the seat of Maroubra has delivered NSW’s greatest contemporary leader 🙂

  35. One systemic problem with China and soft power seems to be the dynamic between Xi and his minions.

    Xi’s minions know that he has total control over their personal lives. This is not a metaphor. Xi executes thousands of his minions every year. In fact over the past five years the number of executions probably totals in the order of 25,000 or so. (If you want to know the exact figure, I suggest you approach the comrades in the Chinese Embassy.)

    So the existential problem for the minions becomes how to impress Xi with their loyalty and their effectiveness. Not being loyal or effective can put your family in a situation where they have to pay for your bullet.

    It is worth considering that one outcome is wolf warrior diplomacy as the diplomats strain to impress the Boss.

    Another outcome is aggressive militarism. The Boss wants Taiwan? We’ll give it to him.

    Another outcome is constant beating of the war drums in rags like the Global Times.

    Another outcome is constant verbal threats against western democracies. If they aren’t socialist democracies with special Chinese characteristics, they are a threat. After all, the main Chinese characteristic of socialist democracy in China is despot Xi.

    Another outcome was the way in which the pandemic was handled in Wuhan in the first few months of 2020. A reasonable hypothesis is that comrades were too frightened to let Xi in on what was happening.

    Arguably, all of the above are leading to an increase of real power of China.

    They are also likely to tend to destroy China’s soft power.

  38. sprocket_ @ #1966 Saturday, May 29th, 2021 – 7:33 pm

    I wouldn’t write Michael Daley off – only had 4 months in the Oppo role before.

    And the seat of Maroubra has delivered NSW’s greatest contemporary leader 🙂

    It was a disaster. There is no way that Michael Daley wouldn’t be reminded of his Asians with PhDs comment every day of his new leadership and twice on Sundays, by the media and the Coalition.

    Surely Sussex Street can come up with some better alternatives?

  39. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, NATO is flexing its muscles to counter the growing bellicosity of Mother Russia:

    [‘Thousands of NATO troops, several warships and dozens of aircraft are taking part in military exercises stretching across the Atlantic, through Europe and into the Black Sea region.

    The war games, dubbed Steadfast Defender 21, are aimed at simulating the 30-nation military organization’s response to an attack on any one of its members. It will test NATO’s ability to deploy troops from America and keep supply lines open.

    Already in recent years, the United States and its allies have deployed troops and equipment in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland to try to reassure those members neighboring Russia that their partners will ride to the rescue should they come under attack.

    Russia’s decision last month to send thousands of troops to the border area with Ukraine has raised concern at the military alliance, which launched one of its biggest ever defense spending initiatives after Russian troops annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

    Top NATO brass insist that the military exercises, involving some 9,000 troops from 20 nations, are not aimed at Russia specifically, but they focus on the Black Sea region, where Russia stands accused of blocking the free navigation of ships.

    NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says the exercises send an important message to any potential adversary: “NATO is ready.” “NATO is there to defend all our allies, and this exercise sends a message about our ability to transport a large number of troops, equipment across the Atlantic, across Europe and also to project maritime power,” Stoltenberg told The Associated Press aboard a British aircraft carrier off the coast of Portugal.’] – mail.com
    …

  41. Fe C@t @7:58. There is no way that Michael Daley wouldn’t be reminded of his Asians with PhDs comment every day of his new leadership and twice on Sundays, by the media and the Coalition.

    Of course it will be the most arrant hypocrisy from the supporters of a party that incorporates appeals to racism into its business model, but true enough and the media will give them a free kick.

  42. Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 7:08 pm

    You must be living in alternative reality or that of trump followers.

  44. Mavis
    China and Russia, two despotisms, are doing tag team.
    It suits China to have Russia distract the West.
    It suits Russia not to have to worry about China.

    (The Russians will learn in the long term. Their unequal treaties will be sorted, one day.)

  46. C@t
    How can there be a rank and file vote if there’s only one candidate though?

    Given what’s happened is there any point in voting in the first place?

  47. boerwar says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:19 pm

    Mavis
    China and Russia, two despotisms, are doing tag team.
    It suits China to have Russia distract the West.
    It suits Russia not to have to worry about China.

    (The Russians will learn in the long term. Their unequal treaties will be sorted, one day.)

    ———-

    I think it’s your mate Donald Trump that is tag teaming with Russia.

    * both ignored covid19.
    * both ignored cyber security attacks.
    * both interfered with 2020 election and previous elections.

    And Now new news about Trump and Ukraine interference:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/27/federal-prosecutors-investigate-ukrainian-interfered-2020-presidential-election

    Federal prosecutors in New York are investigating whether Ukrainian officials attempted to interfere in the 2020 presidential election to undermine Joe Biden and help Donald Trump, the New York Times has reported, citing unnamed sources “with knowledge of the matter”.

    The criminal investigation includes examining whether the Ukrainian officials used Rudy Giuliani, then personal lawyer to the former president, to spread misleading claims about Biden, the New York Times reported.

    The inquiry, which began during the final months of the Trump administration, is being handled by federal prosecutors in Brooklyn, the newspaper reported, and is separate from an ongoing criminal investigation into Giuliani’s dealings in Ukraine.

    —-

    Don’t be a idiot like beowar.

  48. ABM?

    Well I’ll vote for that. Even Daley.

    Daley’s ‘sin’ was more word salad than racist. Good luck with the LNP and media reheating that in 2 years time.

    I suspect that the LNP dirt unit and the 9Faix led media cabal of LNP stenographers have already plumbed the depths with Daley.

    I suspect that with two years in the job – not just a few months at the heal of the hunt – he could be quite effective. And ‘effective’ will be enough against what is frankly the most incompetent and corrupt NSW government in living memory. The Covid Gladys gloss can only last so long after all.

    I suspect that regardless of what head office thinks it wants today (and it seems a surprising road to Damascus conversion that Nanva had on Minns yesterday) what they will really want a leader who can work with the vast majority of caucus and also NOT someone who can’t and who also is widely perceived to have undermined a much loved leader amongst the rank and file.

    Nanva might threaten certain caucus members, but frankly the ones he needs to threaten have the support of the unions that are NOT in the Minns camp. Right now thats all affiliated unions bar two (it used to be three by Gerard Hayes disaffiliated the HSU last month). Admin committee is still run by the affiliated unions, and THEY – not Minns and his crew of germs – are Nanva’s bosses. were I a caucus member being heavier by Nanva I’d tell him to GGFed and hold a press conference about: reminding all that ‘a silent machine is the best machine’.

    I will be seriously pissed off if ‘head office’ frighten everybody into simply accepting Jamie’s king rat with a gold tooth as leader.

  49. Mavis

    but they focus on the Black Sea region, where Russia stands accused of blocking the free navigation of ships.

    That will be the Russians last month telling some US warships they can gagf when the US wanted to drop in for a bit of an exercise off Russia. Funny that .Somehow such provocation was called ‘Russian aggression’ .

  50. poroti says:
    Saturday, May 29, 2021 at 8:25 pm

    Mavis

    but they focus on the Black Sea region, where Russia stands accused of blocking the free navigation of ships.

    That will be the Russians last month telling some US warships they can gagf when the US wanted to drop in for a bit of an exercise off Russia. Funny that .Somehow such provocation was called ‘Russian aggression’ .
    ——————–

    It’s funny how Russia is pulling all the strings and yet it is not punished.

    However if there was a war with China because the west must make it so – Shipping will be diverted and cost will increase.

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