More month of May miscellany

Preselection challenges aplenty against federal Liberals from New South Wales; a potential second Labor membership ballot as the party seeks a new leader in New South Wales; and a state by-election looms in Queensland.

There has been an outbreak of preselection challenges against federal Liberal incumbents in New South Wales, which would appear to be the fruit of new preselection rules that put more power in the hands of the party rank-and-file. However, the branch has not been so democratised as to deny the possibility of federal intervention, which Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports is likely to be invoked by the Prime Minister to protect the incumbents.

• Environment Minister Sussan Ley faces a challenge in her rural seat of Farrer from Christian Ellis, whose conservative credentials extend to an effort to expel Malcolm Turnbull from the Liberal Party after he published his autobiography last year. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Ley has complained of “outsiders” descending upon her electorate with “city-based factional branch stacking” and “a toxic culture which isn’t about the policies or the candidate”.

• Further challenges are brewing against two leading factional powerbrokers: Alex Hawke of the centre right, from conservative-aligned army colonel Michael Abrahams; and Trent Zimmerman of the moderate faction, from both Hamish Stitt, a conservative barrister, and Jess Collins, a member of the centre right.

• In the marginal Sydney seat of Reid, moderate-aligned Fiona Martin faces a challenge from sports administrator Natalie Baini. Apparently at an earlier stage of gestation are potential challenges to Bennelong MP John Alexander from Gisele Kapterian, former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash; and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose Senate seat is reportedly being eyed by conservative colleague Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW.

• One challenge that will not proceed is the one said to have been of “most concern” to senior Liberals in a report by Sarah Martin of The Guardian. Melissa McIntosh, a member of the centre right faction who won the key seat of Lindsay from Labor in 2019, was said to have been under serious pressure from Mark Davies, Penrith councillor and husband of state Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies, having “lost control of her branches to the conservative faction”. However, Clare Armstrong of News.com.au reports the conservatives have “done a deal to drop the challenge”, the terms of which are unclear.

Preselections elsewhere:

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports that candidates for Labor’s preselection in the Adelaide seat of Spence include Matt Burnell, an official with the Right-aligned Transport Workers Union, and Alice Dawkins, who works with “a consulting firm specialising in Asian strategic engagement” and is the daughter of Keating government Treasurer John Dawkins. The safe Labor seat in northern Adelaide will be vacated at the election by Nick Champion’s move to state politics.

• A Liberal preselection last weekend for the Adelaide seat of Boothby was won by Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned management consultant and medical researcher. Swift was chosen ahead of conservative rival Leah Blythe, who had the backing of outgoing member Nicolle Flint.

• The Tasmanian seat of Lyons will be contested for the Liberals by Susie Bower, Meander Valley councillor and chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone. Bower was a candidate for Lyons at the recent state election, but polled last out of the six Liberal candidates with 3.5% of the vote. Lyons could potentially have joined Bass and Braddon as a Liberal gain at the 2019 election if not for the mid-campaign disendorsement of the party’s candidate, Jessica Whelan.

Other news:

• Jodi McKay’s resignation as New South Wales Labor leader on Friday potentially sets up a second membership ballot for the party to go with the one that will choose Rebecca White’s successor in Tasmania. This depends on whether former leader Michael Daley puts his name forward in opposition to Chris Minns, who would appear to be the clear favourite. Today’s Sun-Herald reports that head office would prefer that Minns take the position unopposed so as to avoid “an expensive ballot of rank-and-file members, which would take weeks”. However, a tweet by Daley yesterday suggested he was not of a mind to oblige them.

• Labor MP Duncan Pegg announced his resignation from the Queensland parliament early this week after a terminal cancer diagnosis. This will lead at some point to a by-election for his southern Brisbane seat of Stretton, which Pegg retained by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. Such has been the electoral record of opposition parties recently that one might have thought the Liberal National Party would sit this one out, but they have in fact jumped into the fray with the endorsement of Jim Bellos, a police officer and former Queenslander of the Year. The Courier-Mail reports the front-runner for Labor preselection is James Martin, an electorate officer to Pegg.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the apparent trend of non-university educated whites abandoning parties of the centre left in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia.

Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports the Liberal party room was told this week that the election would be held next year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,927 comments on “More month of May miscellany”

Comments Page 50 of 59
1 49 50 51 59
  1. lizzie
    There are Indigenous people with whose beliefs, values, attitudes and behaviours you might disagree. Nothing wrong with that at all, IMO.
    As it turns out I agree with some but not all of what Price says.

  2. It’s “Doctor versus Doctor” in a fight to the death.

    In the Red corner we have Vic Health, who saw what happened in India with the “Indian” strain (and in the UK) and, seeing as it’s the “Indian” strain that’s loose in Victoria, have locked first and asked questions later.

    In the Blue corner we have “a peak pandemic advisory group” working for Scott Morrison and Brendan Murphy, who reckon it’s all a storm in a tea cup.

    Who would want to toss that particular coin, and call whether that the millions infected and hundreds of thousands dead in India from the same strain that was brought here directly from India by a traveller, were just a one-off, or that perhaps we ought to make haste slowly until we had the full story?

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/scientists-find-no-evidence-strain-is-fast-moving-beast-20210602-p57xfk.html

  3. It was clear when Malcolm Turnbull rejected the Uluru “Statement from the Heart” out of hand by repeating the right wing lie that it was about a “third chamber of Parliament” that the Coalition don’t want a bar of it, even the “Moderates”.

    As to what’s in Ken Wyatt’s heart, who knows? If it has aspirations beyond a few token gestures he’ll have as much success as Malcolm had with action on Global Heating.

  4. “a peak pandemic advisory group” – Boy the “Business Council of Australia” and “Chamber of Commerce and Industry” can be flexible with their names…

  5. Ben and Ken Wyatt are politicians first and foremost. They are just as guilty or not guilty of using their political position as a stepping stone to either wealth or position.
    It’s not unique to Australia or WA or indigenous Australians.
    But it is Australian!
    It’s why the ubiquitous nature of Australian politicians prevails and enough people vote in enough places to give us a Morrison PM.
    It gets them all in the end.

  6. boerwar

    For a couple of centuries whitefellas arguing about what is best for First Nations (and judging their Indigenous political allies accordingly) has pretty well been a comprehensive failure.

    I’ve been thinking lately that the core of the problem lies in the top down rule in ‘Western’ societies and the opposite values of the First Nations. (Yes, I know I’ve been slow.) Consequently no ‘white’ laws are relevant or even useful as they’re all about punishment rather than consultation.

    I don’t think it would be possible for right-wing thinkers to understand this, or change their attitude, although I acknowledge there have been a few who tried to shift the narrative.

  7. Had my AZ jab yesterday as well. Bit of a sore arm this morning but otherwise fine. Totally fluked getting in the queue though as I just happened to be at my GP for a regular check up when they were taking bookings. Otherwise it’s a few weeks wait. GP said it’s a supply issue. Hopeless fed gov.

  8. Good Morning

    I know Elon Musk is a very flawed character. However if you want to get cut through in an election campaign having him on your campaign trail even for 30 minutes buys a hell of a lot of cut through.

    Especially with those voters in North Queensland. Elon Musk promoting Labor’s community battery programme is gold in media coverage in this country.

    Plus without saying anything you might get the cannabis vote.

    🙂

  9. I prefer to listen to what comes out of a person’s mouth, than look at what colour their skin is. And judge them on that.

  10. Cat

    Zerlo posted something that was good news today. His post about reversing some of Trump’s ban on Chinese tech companies unless it directly affected national security and defence by Biden.

    It’s what Australia should have done with Huawei. No big in lights megaphone insulting China.

    Yes we do 5G in conjunction with Japan the US and India. We don’t unnecessarily interfere in the market.

    That and China turning off the wolf warrior diplomacy means we can have a peaceful rise of China in the international rules based order.

    These are necessary actions to dial down the heat in the relationship. The way Biden is handling it is how diplomacy and competition works.

    You don’t go out there and talk about containment or Cold War 2.0.

    The common policy between Japan Biden India and Australia is big. As Kevin Rudd said you don’t see this style of megaphone diplomacy from Japan.

    With the disputed islands having close military encounters Japan understands the strength of quiet diplomacy instead of shouting in the media. Our government needs to learn this point.

  11. lizzie
    Deciding on who gets to decide on the decision making style is a classic difficulty when it comes to First Nation policy and program.

  12. lizzie @ #2456 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 10:56 am

    boerwar

    For a couple of centuries whitefellas arguing about what is best for First Nations (and judging their Indigenous political allies accordingly) has pretty well been a comprehensive failure.

    I’ve been thinking lately that the core of the problem lies in the top down rule in ‘Western’ societies and the opposite values of the First Nations. (Yes, I know I’ve been slow.) Consequently no ‘white’ laws are relevant or even useful as they’re all about punishment rather than consultation.

    As a younger chap I was appalled by what the indigenous people north of The Entrance did with their land rights. They sold it to a golf resort. But…. I grew up and realised that Elinor Ostrom was right. Power decentralised may result in bad outcomes. But less so than power centralised. And giving back rights to Indigenous groups cant be half baked. With that right comes the right to make bad decisions.

    And yes, there are distinct cultural differences that still exist. It took the Washington Consensus decades to realise that you couldnt blue print Torrens Title and stick it into every country and every culture and expect the same benefit it delivers in Australia. For example, Customary Title is a pretty new concept to Lands Titles Offices yet it comprises 97% of PNG and now fundamental in many places around the world. Yet the PNG people rioted when the World Bank even tried to register those titles. And, in I think the Philippines, the effort to register land was given a huge boost by simply training each community how to use hand help GPS devices to “survey” their boundaries. No dodgy white fella descending on the village to tell people where their boundaries were, no Hugh Grant to go up an hill and down a mountain and then marry the local bar tart. Instead, the community owned it. Then valued it.

  13. I think that it’s right for the Victorians to err on the side of caution. As in many areas of governance (and of life generally), they simply don’t have the luxury to wait until all the data is in. Is it the new very contagious Indian variant? It might be, we don’t know for sure. We can see what’s happened in India, however.

    The current outbreak is bubbling along at about 5-10 cases a day, hopefully on a downward trend. A wrong decision could see 10 become 20 then 40 then… like March last year and later on in July, doubling every few days.

  14. BW

    It’s only a difficulty because people like John Howard don’t trust the Keating model of self determination with ATSIC.

    Thus we got the Uluru statement. Without truth telling we won’t understand enough to emphasise. Those people who out of ignorance are being racist need education so they can accept the bad with the good part of self governing Keating tried to create.

    We are never going to eliminate racism but we can work to reduce it as much as possible.

  15. ‘Simon Katich says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 11:54 am

    lizzie @ #2456 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 10:56 am’
    ————————————–
    Good post, IMO. (Relates to Indue card, BTW).
    Australian rural land sales tend to be in the old acres. (About 4,000 square meters in an acre.)
    Adverts for land sales in rural Philippines are often in terms of square meters. Every centimeter counts.

  16. Alpha
    Thanks for the toons. Inter alia, I have learned that when I laugh in Dutch I laugh differently from when I laugh in English.

  17. Karen Barlow
    @KJBar
    ·
    3m
    Vic running LOW on Pfizer. Prof Alan Cheng: “In terms of forward bookings, there is a shortage, but I am not sure exactly when that supply will become available. We are trying to do the best we can with the supply we have.” #COVID19Vic

  18. ICYMI

    @AlboMP tweeted

    29 years ago today, the High Court handed down its Mabo decision – at last overturning terra nullius, recognising First Australians’ enduring connection to land and country, and paving the way for Paul Keating’s land rights legislation.
    It was a decade-long long battle for Eddie Mabo – a battle he didn’t live to see won. He died five months before the decision was handed down.

    Today, we remember Eddie Mabo and his comrades, their courage, and the movement they made their life’s cause.

  19. Meanwhile back in the lab.

    Covid 19 coronavirus: Why the lab leak theory is still unlikely

    It’s happened before
    There’s no genetic sign of human meddling
    The weight of evidence points in one direction

    ………………………………….Dr Jonathan Stoye, group leader of the Retrovirus-Host Interactions Laboratory at the UK’s Francis Crick Institute, pointed out, the virus’ spread around the world didn’t gel with the lab-grown theory…………………………..”Given the rate of nucleotide change observed in virus spreading through the human population over the past year it seems extremely improbable, perhaps impossible, that changes spanning such an evolutionary distance could have occurred during virus growth in a lab.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-why-the-lab-leak-theory-is-still-unlikely/KHHERHFGT5HUE2UPDR52VJQCXA/

  20. BB

    What you need to do before the chip completely takes over your brain function and turns you into a UN zomby is to wave a magnet over the injection site and thus pull the chip out.

    People who get sore arms in the injection site are people whose natural defence mechanisms are fighting off the evil chip. Your natural chip immunity system seems to be asleep on the job.

    KEEP THE CHIP WHEN IT POPS OUT BECAUSE IT IS VITAL EVIDENCE OF A WORLD PLOT TO DESTROY THE WEST AS WE KNOW IT.

    If it doesn’t pop out the first time, get a stronger magnet.

  21. Mark Kenny
    @markgkenny
    ·
    1m
    Victorian health official acknowledges the state would accept extra vaccine supplies from other states if offered. Could do with more Pfizer and AZ. Clearly, this rollout continues to struggle nationally – it remains too slow and started altogether too late. Months were lost.

  22. BK says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 9:46 am

    “he is a failure – an absolute failure – as a leader. He failed the country on bushfires. He’s failed on hotel quarantine. He’s failing on vaccines. ”

    ———————————————————————

    I hope Labor’s campaign team is tuned in to PB. BK has just come up with the obvious election billboard. I almost ready to pay for it. All it needs is a picture of Smirko himself with BK’s immortal prose alongside.

    Are you paying attention Mundo?

  23. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 12:07 pm

    Meanwhile back in the lab.

    Covid 19 coronavirus: Why the lab leak theory is still unlikely

    It’s happened before
    There’s no genetic sign of human meddling
    The weight of evidence points in one direction

    ………………………………….Dr Jonathan Stoye, group leader of the Retrovirus-Host Interactions Laboratory at the UK’s Francis Crick Institute, pointed out, the virus’ spread around the world didn’t gel with the lab-grown theory…………………………..”Given the rate of nucleotide change observed in virus spreading through the human population over the past year it seems extremely improbable, perhaps impossible, that changes spanning such an evolutionary distance could have occurred during virus growth in a lab.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-why-the-lab-leak-theory-is-still-unlikely/KHHERHFGT5HUE2UPDR52VJQCXA/
    ————————————–
    ‘perhaps impossible’ is a classic, meaningless nothingburger. Why would you believe anyone who lacks even the most basic concepts in statistics?

  24. Steve777 @ #2463 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 11:56 am

    I think that it’s right for the Victorians to err on the side of caution. As in many areas of governance (and of life generally), they simply don’t have the luxury to wait until all the data is in. Is it the new very contagious Indian variant? It might be, we don’t know for sure. We can see what’s happened in India, however.

    The current outbreak is bubbling along at about 5-10 cases a day, hopefully on a downward trend. A wrong decision could see 10 become 20 then 40 then… like March last year and later on in July, doubling every few days.

    And the media would be onto that like a pack of vultures.

  25. boerwar
    Something tells me “Dr Jonathan Stoye, group leader of the Retrovirus-Host Interactions Laboratory at the UK’s Francis Crick Institute” would have a better handle on statistics than you and I by a long shot. I suspect his main crime is not declaring Xi ‘guilty’

  26. Re Guytaur @ 11:48.

    ” Japan understands the strength of quiet diplomacy instead of shouting in the media. Our government needs to learn this point.”

    Fully agree.

    I can’t tell whether Morrison is being cynical or just stupid. I incline towards both.

  27. boerwar @ #2476 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 12:10 pm

    ‘perhaps impossible’ is a classic, meaningless nothingburger. Why would you believe anyone who lacks even the most basic concepts in statistics?

    Only if you take it out of context. The actual phrase used was “extremely improbable, perhaps impossible”.

    I think most people would understand what that means.


  28. Bushfire Bill says:
    ..

    In the Blue corner we have “a peak pandemic advisory group” working for Scott Morrison and Brendan Murphy, who reckon it’s all a storm in a tea cup.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/scientists-find-no-evidence-strain-is-fast-moving-beast-20210602-p57xfk.html

    Isn’t the blue corner the one that claimed aerosol transmission wasn’t as issue, and contributed considerable to astrazeneca vaccine hesitancy and so forth and so on.

    The blue corner have totally discredited themself.

  29. boerwar @ #2466 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 11:31 am

    ‘Simon Katich says:
    Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 11:54 am

    lizzie @ #2456 Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 – 10:56 am’
    ————————————–
    Good post, IMO. (Relates to Indue card, BTW).
    Australian rural land sales tend to be in the old acres. (About 4,000 square meters in an acre.)
    Adverts for land sales in rural Philippines are often in terms of square meters. Every centimeter counts.

    I once had the pleasure of a short chat with the SG of the NT wrt indigenous community leases. Wholly moley!

  30. The LNP are trying all their tricks.

    It’s not to convince Victorians. It seems they are willing to throw Frydenberg under the bus if the reports of his attack on Victoria are correct.

    What they are doing is trying the con for voters outside Victoria.
    It’s their only hope.

    As BK pointed out they have failed. As I pointed out months ago. The failure to secure vaccine supplies has politically come to bite them in the arse.

    I am very happy Labor and yes Beemer the Greens are making the LNP pay the political price for their incompetence.

    Edit: As with Trump it’s going to cost them the election.

  31. Interesting, no, how this:

    Zerlo posted something that was good news today.

    Seems to coincide with this:

    That and China turning off the wolf warrior diplomacy means we can have a peaceful rise of China in the international rules based order.

    And you can bet London to a brick that once the slowly, slowly, catchee Western monkey stuff works, the wolf in monkey’s clothing will re-appear.

  32. 😆 What chip you guys really got injected with. You’ll be air guitar champs in no time.
    .
    .
    Mario Fusco Flag of European Union
    @mariofusco
    Here in Italy people started to share this figure claiming that this is the diagram of the 5G chip that has been inserted in the covid vaccine.

    In reality it is the electric circuit of a guitar pedal and I believe that putting it in the covid vaccine has been an excellent idea. Electric light bulb

    https://twitter.com/mariofusco/status/1343547724013187072

  33. I seem to recall someone the other week going on at length about personal attacks used to try discredit the authors of an unpublished science paper.

    Doesn’t look like boerwar was paying any attention to that person.

  34. A small poll but still rating a 9 out of 10 on the FMD scale.
    .
    .
    30 May 2020
    A new YouGov poll of 1,640 people suggests that 28% of Americans believe that Bill Gates wants to use vaccines to implant microchips in people – with the figure rising to 44% among Republicans.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/52847648

  35. Insiders ABC
    @InsidersABC
    ·
    6m
    On #Insiders this Sunday
    @David_Speers will be joined by @J_C_Campbell, Waleed Aly and @msmarto
    #auspol

    Huh!

  36. Cat

    You miss the point.

    Look at the joint statement of the Quad that has not changed.
    We are still establishing other supply chains and the other parts of the statement the Quad made clear.

    It’s just the US has shown it’s soft power is back. The West is as Bob Carr said looking for the off ramps to war.
    This is a strategy that will work because war is not in China’s interest.

    Taking away the fuel of the culture of nationalism inside China is important. The disputes are still there and the red lines of the US are clear. Just as they are with Japan. Remember the Japanese government is not exactly radically left wing.

  37. There will have to be as many treaties/agreements/whatevers are there are recognised Aboriginal groups. What suits the Northern Territory won’t work in Lakes Entrance.

    Giving Aborigines responsibility for their future is just that. Once we’ve handed over the dosh/land/whatever, it’s not our business what’s done with it.*

    *this has been a big issue in places such as the Amazon, where returning land has meant returning to ‘traditional’ slash and burn agriculture, which is not a good environmental outcome…

  38. “In reality it is the electric circuit of a guitar pedal and I believe that putting it in the covid vaccine has been an excellent idea.”

    It’s a Boss Metal Zone MT-2.

    this is what happens to you after having this vaccine pic.twitter.com/H5kG4aDhFZ

    — William Antônio (@William_Antonio) December 28, 2020

    These people with their conspiracy theories are so tiresome, it’s always “wah -wah-wah“. pic.twitter.com/ZQavpQDhIb

    — Patrick Fitzgerald (@barelyfitz) January 2, 2021

    Metal Zone – You’re Using It Wrong
    https://rolandcorp.com.au/blog/metal-zone-youre-using-it-wrong

  39. Can Merlino tell lies.
    He said there are a number of countries who have fully vaccinated over 50% of their population. Looking at the NY Times figures, Israel at 57% is the only sizeable country who have done this. Complete lie.
    UK are at 39% fully vaccinated. Nowhere near 50% as Merlino just said. Another lie
    USA are at 41%. Another lie. Well off 50%.
    We are at 2% because AZ is our main vaccine where of course there is a 12 week gap. 2nd doses have just started for AZ.

  40. [‘Daniel Andrews will be ‘back on deck later this month.

    The Victorian Premier, who is recovering from a broken vertebra and fractured ribs, took to Facebook with messages of support, saying the efforts they are making to endure the current lockdown will save lives.

    “Record tests, record vaccinations, record fight – we’re doing this to protect our communities, our state and the entire country,” Mr Andrews’ post read.

    He said he had more scans and a meeting with his medical team next week.

    “I’ll let you know how that goes and exactly when I’ll be back on deck later this month.”] – NEWDAILY

  41. C@t,
    From Eric Feigl-Deng’s twitterfeed:( highly recommend)
    “ Professor Sutton said there was another case where the virus had showed up “in places where normally it would be likely”. (?Typo-Unlikely?)

    “So the Brighton Beach Hotel, that was an outdoor dining setting, well ventilated, you wouldn’t expect transmission to occur,” he said. ”

    And thanks for the ‘jaw-dropping’ link…will watch shortly.

  42. “Covid 19 coronavirus: Why the lab leak theory is still unlikely”

    I agree. The lab leak hypothesis is not impossible, but highly improbable.

  43. QAnon believers threaten more election violence

    On Wednesday, CNN reported that on some corners of social media, adherents to the QAnon conspiracy theory are still plotting how to overthrow the results of the 2020 election — and have hinted at further violence like the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6.

    In a response to a question about a potential 2024 candidacy, Trump said that ‘something has to be done’ before 2022 to stop the Democratic agenda. ‘He doesn’t have to wait until 2024 people, he’s coming back this year, everything is going to be reversed,’ one Telegram user commented on the clip. ‘It’s a great day when we start seeing evidence of the plan coming together! He just told us it won’t be long now,’ wrote another.”

    The QAnon conspiracy theory posits that the United States is run by a secret group of Satan-worshiping pedophiles who drink the blood of trafficked children. It has been intertwined deeply with Trump since its inception, with many believing Trump was going to order mass arrests of Democrats involved with the conspiracy, and some believing Trump will be restored to power shortly.

    https://www.rawstory.com/qanon-threatens-more-election-violence/

Comments Page 50 of 59
1 49 50 51 59

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *