Detailed below are some recent electoral developments, the juiciest of which relate to factional power struggles within Victorian Labor, whose federal preselection process has been taken over by the party’s national executive in the wake of the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking affair. Note also the post below offering a half-time report on the Tasmanian state election campaign.
• Josh Bornstein, employment lawyer and partner at Maurice Blackburn, has pulled out of a challenge against Kim Carr for the safe position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket that is reserved to the Left. This followed a report in The Australian that trawled through a decade’s worth of his voluminous social media activity, turning up criticism of party and union figures including Chris Bowen and Penny Wong. The Age reports Left faction unions were divided between Carr and Bornstein, with one or more further challengers likely to emerge. One such is Ryan Batchelor, executive director of the McKell Institute and son of former state MP Peter Batchelor.
• The Age report also says that Sam Rae, a partner at PwC and former state party secretary, is “being encouraged” to run in the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. An earlier report indicated that a stability pact being negotiated between the main factions would reserve the seat for the Right, potentially setting up a turf war between the Victorian Right forces associated with Richard Marles and Bill Shorten, who are emerging as the main rivals for influence within the faction.
• Andrew Laming’s bid to retain preselection in Bowman has predictably fallen foul of the Liberal National Party’s candidate suitability panel.
• I’ll have a dedicated post up shortly for the May 22 by-election in the New South Wales state seat of Upper Hunter, my guide for which can be found here. Results of a uComms poll for the Australia Institute are encouraging for the Nationals, who hold seat seat on a margin of 2.6%. When added together properly, the poll credits the Nationals with a primary vote of 38.5%, compared with 34.0% at the 2019 election; Labor with 23.8%, compared with 28.6%; One Nation, who did not contest in 2019, with 13.8%; the Greens with 10.1%, more than double their 4.8% vote share in 2019; and bookies favourite Shooters Fishers and Farmers with only 8.2%, compared with 22.0%. The poll was conducted on April 7 and 8 by automated phone polling and SMS from a sample of 686.
• A new site called OzPredict offers cleanly presented poll-based forecasting of the next federal election, with the promise of more features to follow.
And before anybody has a go at me for being a nervous nellie or a bedwetter, or any of that nonsense, I am just musing out loud. Sometimes there are conversations that go beyond just “Will Albo beat Scomo at the next election?”
That Scotty is promoting an end of year Vaccine rollout means there won’t be an election til next year. If the Libs were ahead at this point with their internal polling, they would be gearing up for an election. They aren’t, the pork barrelling has not started in earnest…
steve777
Can you see him returning to politics? Even if he wanted to? Logistically, I don’t see a pathway. Any attempt to run for preselection would be seen for what it is and reverb back to the leadership wars. Even if the ALP lost bigly next year he would have to find a seat quick (before a ballot?) – it would all be too messy.
The smh says they’ll move way from reporting polls as a horse race, but then put up the PPM horserace as their headline, when its an even less meaningful measure than 2PP.
Rational
That’s the culture war waged by Murdoch and allies. That includes Labor people attacking the Greens as a job destroying party.
All those Labor arguments about job creation have been used by the Greens. The reality is Labor suffers the exact same problems in the culture war. With the problem of more opportunities for lobbyists and media to derail Labor’s climate policy.
The LNP has the advantage they know they have climate deniers working for fossil fuel lobbyists in their ranks.
For those people attacking the Greens for being right on climate policy here is Katherine Murphy.
@murpharoo tweets
Telling Australians net zero won’t be achieved in a wine bar isn’t leadership. It’s politics. We’ve had more than a decade of politics frustrating climate action and that hasn’t put us on a path to net zero. Achieving net zero will take leadership.
Even the ABC is comparing unheard the Albanese speech to Biden’s policy. The LNP is losing the media narrative as I predicted.
The LNP is losing the media narrative as I predicted.
—————
The Guardian and an ABC silo isn’t the media narrative.
SK
You forget. No Murdoch in the regions.
Thus the ABC is the media narrative in most marginal seats.
@Paul_Karp tweets
I am inching towards a target of being a multimillionaire by 2050.
But it won’t be the chat in inner city cafes, wine bars, and dinner parties that gets me there.
It will be you handing over your money, treating me like I am already a multimillionaire.
BK:
Thank goodness for Skype and FaceTime etc. these days!
I shall F/T with the German connection later today, before my granddaughter commences yet another day of remote/on-line schooling. Since the beginning of January this year she has had two days only in an actual classroom and in the 2020 calendar year she had, interspersed over the twelve months, fewer than twelve weeks in total in a physical school. the Covid lockdown is difficult for the pupils, especially when the need for social as well as educational development is considered.
The family was working in BJ for four years (2013 -2017) with my daughter also having oversight of certain matters in HK during part of this period. Grand daughter had friends made through the International School she attended whose parents were in the Australian embassy and at times the whole family would “exploit “the connection and be invited to use the pool there. I suspect life in the embassy is more constricted these days.
I’d like to see a few more of this new pollster before becoming too excited about the outcomes published.
1. The Greens have gone backwards in every single poll since the last Election (I mean voting polls). Yet we see a 2% increase in their purported vote with this shiny new Pollster.
2. The ALP have been gradually pulling away of late in the Newspolls published. Last one about 52/48. Yet here, depending on how you slice the preferences it’s at best 49/51 against.
3. One of the major issues atm is the Government’s poor handling of gender issues in the Parliament and most other polls I’ve seen show a gender vote imbalance in Labor’s favour. This one doesn’t show that.
I’d also suggest the showing for One Nation and Independents are higher that what I would expect.
So looking for our methodology experts to identify and quantify the structural bias in the poll.
So, I’m in the hmmm boat atm.
“guytaursays:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 10:41 am
Even the ABC is comparing unheard the Albanese speech to Biden’s policy. The LNP is losing the media narrative as I predicted.”
It does not matter what Columnists of ‘The Guardian’ say or tweet. Didn’t you see the latest nine/ Fairfax poll? It says ALP has 33 % PV. I understand polls are transient and reflective of the mood of the public at that moment. My point is LNP is not losing public narrative whether it is losing media narrative or not or in other words ALP is not winning public narrative.
And another point is ALP did not win an election in 2019 when they continuously won opinion polls for 18 months. Imagine what will happen if they are even wining opinion polls.
@DanielBleakley tweets
For just $4 billion per year (peanuts) the Australian government could pay every single one of Australia’s 40k coal miners $100k per year to not dig coal.
Here is an argument that’s going to get zero political traction even though it’s true.
“ steve777
Can you see him returning to politics? Even if he wanted to? Logistically, I don’t see a pathway. Any attempt to run for preselection would be seen for what it is and reverb back to the leadership wars. Even if the ALP lost bigly next year he would have to find a seat quick (before a ballot?) – it would all be too messy.”
I can’t see Kevin Rudd returning to Parliament, any more than, say, Kim Beazley or Paul Keating.
Of course Howard made it back after the Liberal leadership wars of the 80s and 90s, but I think he’s the exception that proves the rule.
P.S. Keating is 77, Beazley 72, Rudd 63. Age isn’t a problem for Rudd.
Ven
Good try.
The narrative change is slow as we have seen with consent and months of simmering anger from women.
Nowhere did I say that’s a miraculous change that means Labor and the Greens have informed educated voters in the majority.
The point is thats a process that is slowly changing. It helps Labor. It doesn’t hand Labor victory.
“Rational Leftistsays:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 10:32 am
the only viable centre-left alternative (the Greens) have their own problems and are pretty disliked too.”
They are not centre-left. The Communists have taken over that party.
“That’s the culture war waged by Murdoch and allies. That includes Labor people attacking the Greens as a job destroying party.”
Yep, a good deal of the negative attacks that are leveled at the Greens are initiated by the far-right hate media (News Corp etc…) and are then picked up on by others. Often those who regurgitate News Corp attacks on the left are those who actually dislike Murdoch but have still been influenced by his propaganda.
“Telling Australians net zero won’t be achieved in a wine bar isn’t leadership. It’s politics. We’ve had more than a decade of politics frustrating climate action and that hasn’t put us on a path to net zero. Achieving net zero will take leadership.”
Very true. Waiting to achieve “net zero” by 2050, as Labor and the Coalition plan, is far too late.
“Forget about net zero, we need real zero” – Greta Thunberg
If the left can manage to hold Biden to his word (as we have seen, that’s a big if) then the US will be adopting parts of Bernie Sanders’ policies on climate. The stale old establishment parties will be shown up for the laggards they are by an administration that is itself still lagging well behind where it needs to be.
What the world needs is the Greens in government to lead the way on climate action and show the parties of the past how it should be done.
What Australia needs is the Green New Deal, not more support for fossil fuels from Labor and the Coalition.
@AndrewBrownAU tweets
Just in: Former US Vice President and presidential candidate Walter Mondale has died aged 93
Ven
Then you are arguing the Democrats are communists.
Worked out great for Trump.
“They are not centre-left. The Communists have taken over that party.”
The Greens are middle-to-centre-left. People who falsely accuse the Greens of being communists are usually far-right nutters, or have been influenced by their way of thinking.
Hi Victoria
I’m not a neurosurgeon. In fact I have not practiced urology for 8 years since becoming a medical administrator.
My clinical advice would be dangerous at best but I can tell you the way around Medicare and hospitals
RIP Fritz.
A very strong liberal Democrat back in the day whose career, sadly, didn’t have the best trajectory but he was still respected by Democrats to the very end.
Kristina Keneally on RN this morning re the Tamil family stuck on Christmas Island
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/government-efforts-to-keep-biloela-family-in-detention-keneally/13309722
@SDHamilton tweets
Emma Herd CEO Investor Group on Climate Change says that orderly transition could unlock $63B new investment in next five years, including $3B in Green Hydrogen. #GoGreenH2 #CleanTechJobsSummit @SmartEnergyCncl @HydrogenAus
Newspoll has labor PV at approx 37%.
Essential has labor PV at approx 37%.
News 9 poll has labor PV at approx 33%.
Take whichever one suits your individual political narrative.
Thus it has always been so with PB as polls drop. In my humble opinion none of it really means jack shit at this point.
Having now seen the “Consent” clip, it’s obviously an American original with the sound re-done to give the actors Aussie accents.
The racial mix is much more typical of America than Australia too.
Use of “tacos” to illustrate a point is not typically Aussie, either.
This happens quite a lot since Australian Content rules (yes, even for commercials) were relaxed way back when.
It’s cheap to hire a good audio track-laying operator. All they need is a good microphone, a small voice-over booth and some voice actors looking for work. A home studio set-up would do it nicely. There are a lot of them around.
Did someone mention Mormons? Compare the look of the ad to the cover of a Mormon “information” pamphlet and you’ll get the idea.
doyley
At least they are different which is what you would expect.
Armin Laschet wins vote of Angela Merkel’s CDU and will lead party into next election in Germany
Angela Merkel’s CDU on Monday night named Armin Laschet as the man who will lead the party in September’s elections to replace the veteran Chancellor of Germany.
Mr Laschet tried to draw a line under the days of vicious infighting with his rival Markus Söder, whose supporters threatened to prolong the impasse by demanding a vote by MPs on the decision.
The high profile feud between the CDU leader Mr Laschet and Mr Söder, leader of its Bavarian sister party, has damaged the Christian Democrats in the polls and handed the Greens an early advantage in the campaign.
The German Green party named Annalena Baerbock as its candidate on Monday. Ms Baerbock beat Robert Habeck, a 51-year-old former academic and her fellow party leader, to the candidacy.
The two leaders honoured a pledge to resolve the issue amicably behind closed doors and announced their decision together.
The contrast with the high profile feud gripping Mrs Merkel’s own party could not be more striking.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/19/annalena-baerbock-named-green-candidate-succeed-angela-merkel/
DW video news story on the German Election, featuring Annalena Baerbock speaking following her nomination (with translation): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFE4G7IEuGc&ab_channel=DWNews
The Enemy
It Should Be Clear From Recent Events That America’s Enemies Are Not The Communists Over There, But Those Deranged Right Wing Lunatics Right Here.
Frank Zappa 1989.
Sounds familiar to Australian’s today.
BB twitter said that milkshake ad cost $3.8 million
Would that be excessive?
I noticed the use of american football rules to describe consent
contract to develop ad here
If BB is right about the source of the consent advertisement, and I suspect that he is, can someone remind me again about what our superior economic managers paid for it. I believe it wasn’t far short of $4 million. I wonder how close the production company is to the LNP?
BB
I mentioned Mormons.
Thats the vibe it gave
Oakeshott country
All good.
The medicos are still deliberating on best way to proceed.
Just curious if a particularly strategy was more common than others
Good news for those who want to see the CDU/CSU out of government. Laschet is a bad candidate with terrible views (for a conservative.) Definitely not a spiritual successor to Merkel (not that Merkel was perfect by any means.)
Ven @ #1161 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 10:54 am
In a nutshell; this is why Labor will lose this/next year.
Re Billie @11:26. That looks like $3.8 million for a two year contract (2017-19), not one to produce the “milkshake” ad.
frednk,
Exactly correct and individual posters will support, reject or ignore individual polls based on their own political leanings.Good on them.
As I posted above I do not think at this point individual polls really mean jack shit but individuals will jump on those polls that suit them and whatever political narrative they wish to push. Good on them.
My personal takeout from the polling at this point is simple. Morrison and the coalition should be doing a lot better with their incumbency during this time. That is about all I have got to add.
Cheers.
Benita Kolovos Tiger face
@benitakolovos
“I’ve got to be frank with you, I was pretty disappointed,” Acting Premier James Merlino says of the federal government’s educational videos on consent. “It was confusing. It was cringeworthy, it did not hit the mark.” Mr Merlino won’t be recommending them to Victorian schools.
In the internet age, the age of junk mail and junk phone calls, polling must be very difficult.
As I understand it, polling was traditionally done via door knocks, later mostly by calling landlines. Regarding door-knocks, it depends upon people being at home when the pollster calls, answering the door and not telling them to go away. Regarding land-lines, lots of people don’t answer them (or don’t have them), especially if they don’t know the number. Ditto mobile phones – unknown numbers go to voice mail.
So who can the pollsters contact? Young people would be especially hard to reach.
E. G. Theodore:
Monday, April 19, 2021 at 6:53 pm
Thanks for your scholarly response to my post. However, I view the matter from a different perspective. Ultimately the CDF is responsible for the morale of those who serve under him, the absence of which would give rise to an inefficient fighting force. The morale of the Italian army of WWII, for example, is a case on all four. Contrary to popular perception, the Italians weren’t cowardly but they were poorly led, supplied, in consequence of which, morale was at a very low ebb – the rest is history.
As far as the SASR is concerned it considers itself to be the crème de la crème of the ADF. It does the dirty work of governments and in return, both at the political level and its leadership, its indiscretions (and, as it appears now, its war crimes) have been overlooked for the ostensible greater good. It is if you like a sacred cow. But that’s now all changed, with the allegations of war crimes committed by members of the Regiment.
Dutton’s decision to overturn the ruling of Campbell re. the loss of the meritorious unit citation places the CDF in a very invidious position, and he should, as you suggest, resign; for he’s lost a good deal of his authority. There’s little doubt that the military brass see Dutton as an upstart former Sen. Const of the Queensland Drug Squad. To show the brass he’s in charge, Dutton needed a substantive issue, and he found one. I wouldn’t, though, underestimate the resolve of senior officers to put Dutton back in his box, there being a number of Defence Ministers who have incurred the wrath of the military brass, and who have paid the ultimate price.
@alexbhturnbull tweeted 11 hors ago
Seeing this US stimulus work so well and be so readily spent I can’t help but think we’ve seen the death of trickle down economics.
I wonder how much the Mormon’s got for the milkshake ad?
More Graft?
Wouldn’t have thought so. There’s:
● Initial consultation with stakeholders, churches, parent groups
● All those lunches,
● Creative brainstorming,
● More lunches,
● Talent to pay,
● Working breakfasts,
● Lunch with stakeholders to discuss campaign as a work in progress,
● Studio time,
● Sushi dinners delivered to strategy group working overtime,
● The actual overtime,
● Travel, lots of it, including taxis, Uber, couriers, airline, hire cars, helicopters (if you can swing it),
● Purchasing of overseas rights,
● Clearances and copyright sign-offs,
● Long lunches with lawyers,
● Big celebration dinner at the final Reveal,
● Rework after Final Reveal,
● Re-book talent, studio, creative’s,
● Lots more sushi,
● Media booking fees,
● Final consultation with stakeholders, churches, parent groups,
● Markup, usually 150-200%,
● Kickbacks, as applicable.
to pay for.
ScoMo is a past master at greasing the wheels of the marketing and advertising industry. It’s virtually his trademark. It’s also what’s always gotten him into trouble, because he picks winners from among his mates in the game (they remember your generosity with public money at election time when it’s supposed to be the Party paying, ha-ha). Rarely tenders, from what I can see.
Disclosure: When I was young and pretty, I used to design and manufacture gear for TV commercial and film production studios. This got me serendipitously into voice-over work, first as a fill-in when the person booked called in sick, and later for a short-lived career as “talent”. I know exactly how the industry works.
I’ve pretty well given up on anything other than the real thing.
The last poll that mattered was the WA state election.
The results were remarkable for three things: the collapse of both the Greens vote and the Greens representation, the Nationals becoming the official opposition, and a smashing victory for Labor.
billie says:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 11:08 am
They are not refugees. They have lost every single court case to date.
Both parents families were senior Tamil Tigers – the Khmer Rouge of Sri Lanka.
The father has been to Sri Lanka multiple times since coming to Australia.
They can return to Sri Lanka and then apply to move her legally.
Remember when Tony Abbott vowed to clean up regulations and lots of effort resulted in a bit of editing.
Morrison is not trying to reach everyone. He does not even pretend to gover for all Australians, whatever he says. He doesn’t do unity, he doesn’t do bipartisan.
He’s built a plurality which he believes that, together with votes and preferences from people who don’t particularly like the strident right wing warrior culture of the Liberals but who like Labor less, plus those who vote with their wallets, will keep him in power.
The votes of segments of the population, including “inner city trendies”, who won’t ever vote Liberal, have been ring-fenced, to serve as the enemy in the culture-wars as required but to be otherwise ignored.
Some interesting analysis about the composition and motivations of different groups of Brexit voters:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/19/half-of-brexit-supporters-were-not-left-behind-red-wall-voters
BB
”Disclosure: When I was young and pretty, I used to design and manufacture gear for TV commercial and film production studios. This got me serendipitously into voice-over work, first as a fill-in when the person booked called in sick, and later for a short-lived career as “talent”.”
You’ll have to tell us about some of your roles.