Detailed below are some recent electoral developments, the juiciest of which relate to factional power struggles within Victorian Labor, whose federal preselection process has been taken over by the party’s national executive in the wake of the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking affair. Note also the post below offering a half-time report on the Tasmanian state election campaign.
• Josh Bornstein, employment lawyer and partner at Maurice Blackburn, has pulled out of a challenge against Kim Carr for the safe position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket that is reserved to the Left. This followed a report in The Australian that trawled through a decade’s worth of his voluminous social media activity, turning up criticism of party and union figures including Chris Bowen and Penny Wong. The Age reports Left faction unions were divided between Carr and Bornstein, with one or more further challengers likely to emerge. One such is Ryan Batchelor, executive director of the McKell Institute and son of former state MP Peter Batchelor.
• The Age report also says that Sam Rae, a partner at PwC and former state party secretary, is “being encouraged” to run in the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. An earlier report indicated that a stability pact being negotiated between the main factions would reserve the seat for the Right, potentially setting up a turf war between the Victorian Right forces associated with Richard Marles and Bill Shorten, who are emerging as the main rivals for influence within the faction.
• Andrew Laming’s bid to retain preselection in Bowman has predictably fallen foul of the Liberal National Party’s candidate suitability panel.
• I’ll have a dedicated post up shortly for the May 22 by-election in the New South Wales state seat of Upper Hunter, my guide for which can be found here. Results of a uComms poll for the Australia Institute are encouraging for the Nationals, who hold seat seat on a margin of 2.6%. When added together properly, the poll credits the Nationals with a primary vote of 38.5%, compared with 34.0% at the 2019 election; Labor with 23.8%, compared with 28.6%; One Nation, who did not contest in 2019, with 13.8%; the Greens with 10.1%, more than double their 4.8% vote share in 2019; and bookies favourite Shooters Fishers and Farmers with only 8.2%, compared with 22.0%. The poll was conducted on April 7 and 8 by automated phone polling and SMS from a sample of 686.
• A new site called OzPredict offers cleanly presented poll-based forecasting of the next federal election, with the promise of more features to follow.
It isnt looking to promising for Navalny. If he dies, Putin is going to be dealing with an uprising.
BK,
An excellent reason for a great family get-together, or did you all do so at the weekend? I will be having a small one today, for a similar reason.
The historical connections to the date can bring interesting reactions. When I was working I had someone on my staff who shared the date, but she didn’t tell anyone for several years and of course, in Germany the date is still viewed by many with less than pleasure. I was in Germany a few years ago on the actual day and the reactions of commiseration from some of my daughter’s German friends was quite strong. On another occasion as I was checking in at Munich airport to return home the woman on the counter whispered conspiratorially to me that we shared the same date. She seemed pleased to be able to share the connection with someone not of German origin, poor thing.
Lizzie
I cant even begin to describe how beyond bad it is.
Gimme a break. The soccer super league isn’t an abomination. It is a natural progression of a disease that all the detractors have either benefited from or happily gone along for the ride.
The idea of a ‘club’ is just a joke. It has been simply a ‘brand’ for decades. And players, supporters, controlling bodies and the media are all in it up to the eyeballs.
Who gives a “_” if a bunch of clubs get together for some midweek early season exhibition games.
I watched the four corners report and it confirmed the failures of China of being up front from the get go. If they had done so, it may only have morphed into an epidemic that was managed and controlled.
I had a look at the “consent” video. I can see the point that they’re trying to make. It takes an “interesting” approach, talking about sex without mentioning sex. It’s meant to be humorous and is, if you find a pie (or milkshake) in the face funny. It does make good points about respecting the other person’s inner life, their boundaries.
It’s clearly aimed at young people, high school age. To me it has a 1950s / “Happy Days” look. Will that work with the target audience? In any case they aren’t the only demographic having problems with “consent”. There’ll need to be other material aimed at adults.
The real test for this video is: does it work with its target audience? Does it make its point with them, or will they ridicule it like everyone else and miss the point being made?
Can’t wait for the young kids version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9LLfv7yauM
Steve777
The target audience will not relate whatsoever to the fifties vibe, which also has a strangely mormon feel to it. Dont ask me why but that is the vibe it gave me. Sigh…….
It will be a reasonable majority for Labor , if the lib/nats combined primary vote is around 38-40% at the federal election
something like Labor getting 81+ seats
News Breakfast
@BreakfastNews
·
1h
.
@AnnastaciaMP
says there needs to be a guarantee of vaccine supply.
“When we look at what’s happening in the rest of the world, it’s not good news at all with the pandemic raging & in some countries, even getting worse, with third and fourth waves and mutant variations.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/BreakfastNews/status/1384262425713672194
Re Oakshott @8:50.
” Age/SMH polling just released
P.V
Coal 38
ALP 33
Green 12
ON 6
…”
So also “Someone else” / don’t know / don’t care = 11
So the ALP 2PP would be about:
0*38 + 33 + 0.8*12 + 0.33*6 + 0.45*11 = 49.5.
Say 50-50.
Another way of looking at it is Left —> 33+12 = 45
Right —> 38+6 = 44.
Still neck and neck.
The ALP primary vote seems to have moved very little since 2013 which is a bit of a worry.
An excellent reason for a great family get-together, or did you all do so at the weekend? I will be having a small one today, for a similar reason.
______
Bennelong Lurker
Indeed we did last Saturday night. On top of that our grand-daughter’s birthday fell on that date! Four of the five kids and their families were with us, and we had a Skype connection with No. 2 son and his from the embassy in Beijing.
Morning all. These days the Chaser reports the news as accurately as anyone else.
“The Shovel
@TheShovel
Government In Talks With Essendon FC To Learn How To Successfully Rollout Injection Program”
As for ScottyFromHateSpeech’s divide and rule comment on inner city populations this morning, he is beneath contempt.
“Age/SMH polling just released
P.V
Coal 38
ALP 33
Green 12
ON 6
Pref. PM Morrison 47 Albo 25
The ALP primary vote in NSW has a 2 in front of it”
Very interesting! It’s about time we got something other than Newspolls and the occasional Essential. William is probably doing cartwheels right about now lol. I like how they aren’t stuffing around trying to work out the TPP.
Katie Couric (@katiecouric) Tweeted:
This is a well reported, terrifying article: How QAnon Conspiracy Theorists Are Winning Local Elections | Time https://t.co/fMVN4BCebU https://twitter.com/katiecouric/status/1383393545445253121?s=20
Does Kirribilli House count as “inner city”?
Steve777 @ #1110 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 9:35 am
‘Still neck and neck’
Beggars belief.
Labor should be 10 in front.
“Scottsays:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 9:21 am
It will be a reasonable majority for Labor , if the lib/nats combined primary vote is around 38-40% at the federal election
something like Labor getting 81+ seats”
Are you serious scott? You think ALP will get more than 81 seats with 33% PV? In your dreams probably.
This part concerns me more than anything else.
“mundosays:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 9:47 am
‘Still neck and neck’
Beggars belief.
Labor should be 10 in front.”
Why should ALP be in front by 10 after losing unlosable election in 2019.?
The ALP primary vote seems to have moved very little since 2013 which is a bit of a worry.
—————
2 things
Only half of the 6% swing away from Keating in 96 went to the Coalition PV. That means many previous ALP voters found a stepping stone party to the Coalition.
And with 11% undecided in that poll, it’s a bit of a guess if there is a general swing on. If you add an estimate of the undecided ‘alp vote’ to their PV they have gone forward. But if the undecideds flock to the LNP….
I suspect there are some solid meat and veg issues the ALP have up their sleeve closer to the election if they r clever enough to wield them. The removal of the tax offset is one.
“Rational Leftistsays:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 9:55 am
ON 6
This part concerns me more than anything else.”
Why? The one that should concern you should be
ALP 33
“Does Kirribilli House count as “inner city”?”
Ahh that would be a big yes.
So would Morrison’s own house in the Shire for that matter. It’s not like he lives in an “outer-city” suburb like Penrith or somewhere like that. He is a typical of the elites who try and paint themselves as being like the “working man”. Complete hypocrite.
ON 6 might be a good thing. Watch Pauline, she could be a better weathervane that the polls. This time, PHON preferences might be less favourable to the LNP.
It’s too high for my liking. One Nation should be a fringe, not a party that has a primary vote that is large enough to have a reasonable influence on outcomes and, depending on where that support is concentrated, could win Senate races. I mean Hanson will probably win again in QLD but if we’re seeing it grow in, say, NSW as well, that’s a problem.
Morrison’s moral compass: open the gates for crooks and spivs:
‘https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/20/scott-morrison-says-sweeping-deregulation-will-save-businesses-430m-a-year-on-red-tape’
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.
Ven @ #1116 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 9:55 am
Because the government is corrupt and incompetent?
Just putin’ it out there.
“ Age/SMH polling just released
P.V
Coal 38
ALP 33
Green 12
ON 6
Pref. PM Morrison 47 Albo 25
The ALP primary vote in NSW has a 2 in front of it”
Another misleading set of polling.
Neither cumulative totals of primaries, or preferred PM, add up to 100.
Labor in NSW has a primary vote with a 2 in front? Out of what? 80? 90?
Rational Leftist @ #1114 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 10:03 am
I’m not so sure about NSW. For the Upper Hunter by-election they had the perfect candidate ready to go, being the guy who ran Fitzgibbon so close, and ON didn’t pre-select him because he disagreed with Marky Mark Latham! That’s just shambolic.
IMO, other than 1990 federal de election and may be NSW state election (I am not sure of 1998 election), the thumb rule is that we
A party that wins most PV in a general election ( state or federal ) wins elections.
Also, a party that gets a PV in early 30s never wins election. ( This is 100 %)
In Scott Morrison’s dreams 😀
Why? The one that should concern you should be
ALP 33
————
Only if you are an ALP devotee. Their brand is constantly smashed by the biggest media companies in the land. The days of high PVs are over (even for the Libs) unless you can find a charismatic leader.
I heard Rudd on RN yesterday speaking at some event. He really has taken the gloves off. Interestingly, so has Turnbull.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 8:38 am
Has the ALP been spared Pasokification because the Greens, the only alternative progressive option are so hopeless – administratively and with policy?’
This is an excellent question, IMO.
“The Shire” covers the Southern section of the Sydney metro area, between the Southern shores of Botany Bay / Georges River and the Royal National Park. It is located mostly around 25-35 km from the CBD. It’s similar in character to Sydney’s Northern Beaches (Tony Abbott / Bronwyn Bishop) and Sydney’s NW (Bible Belt). Solidly Liberal, definitely not “inner city”.
“I mean Hanson will probably win again in QLD”
I dunno, PHON tanked pretty badly at the recent QLD Election. I used to think she was assured of being re-elected but I think she’s on pretty thin ice in that regard now. Would be great if she misses out, then we’d just have to endure Malcolm Roberts for another 3 years until his term ends. Shame they’re not both up for election this time.
They r polls. No election in sight. Worth some punditry but pinch the salt.
IMO, other than 1990 federal election and may be NSW 1995 state election (I am not sure of 1998 election), the thumb rule is that we
A party that wins most PV in a general election ( state or federal ) wins elections.
Also, a party that gets a PV in early 30s never wins election. ( This is 100 %)
Former UK Cabinet Minister and general twit William Hague with the LOL of the morning. He is going ‘Boo Biden’ over the withdrawal from Afghanistan because Joe (drum roll please)…………… “ignores the lessons of the past 20 years” . All with a straight face.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/joe-biden-has-made-his-first-big-mistake-pptl0kznv
Best larf since his address to the Tory conference when he was still a school boy..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL_p9qjfu5U
Just remember: you don’t need support of the majority of a state to get elected to the Senate. Just enough to get near enough to a quota and a reasonable enough preference flow to do the rest.
Just remember that COAL numbers are inflated by NATS/Others, it makes them LOOK BIGGER by being in A COALITION.
I heard Rudd on RN yesterday speaking at some event. He really has taken the gloves off…
I heard the second half of that interview (“Big Ideas”, Radio National). In that interview he:
– strongly defended his record in dealing with the GFC
– strongly attacked the Murdoch media
– attacked the whole “debt and deficit” mantra, especially the double standards applied between the two main sides of politics
– advocated that Labor strongly advocate its values, which are good values
– go strongly negative on the Morrison Government. There’s a lot of material to work with
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/kevin-rudd-on-the-murdoch-media-and-how-federal-labor-can-win-a/13293864
“Labor in NSW has a primary vote with a 2 in front? Out of what? 80? 90?”
Does it matter? The number is believable because this is NSW Labor we are talking about, not ACT or WA Labor. They are utterly toxic. The NSW Liberal gov is a corrupt and incompetent joke yet NSW Labor still can’t lay a glove on them.
If the NSW PV is in 20s with NSW MP as LOP, then it shows very poorly on Albanese. I don’t think even Latham ( who is worst ALP leader in decades, who got up because of intra-party rivalry between 2 dynasts) got PV in 20s . If you discount Latham the last ALP leader from NSW before Albanese was Keating whereas Libs continuously gave ( or is it LNP) leaders since 1996 election. And you know how many elections LNP won since 1996.
The day of high Labor PVs are over because there is a political party with a solid base of around 8-12% (depending on the election) that has consumed a chunk of people who back in the 90s and earlier, would have voted Labor. (Yes, there are also former Democrats and people who supported other various left-wing minors.)
Without inciting another partisan flame war on here, fortunately they give back in a pretty strong preference flow.
EDIT: But a Labor PV in the 20s or very low 30s is embarrassingly low, and I won’t deny that.
Simon Katich @ #1120 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 10:11 am
https://play.acast.com/s/democracy-sausage/malcolmturnbull-australiapost-coal
The worrying thing is ALP 29% in NSW the same as the Hayes state polling.
This would only just get 2 senators
U.S. COVID update:
– New cases: 67,664 ……………. – New deaths: 478
– In hospital: 42,723 (-113)
– In ICU: 9,856 (-128)
581,540 total deaths now
Population vaccinated:
– At least 1 dose: 132.3M (+1.1M)
– Fully vaccinated: 85.4M (+1.1M)
Zerlo ”Just remember that COAL numbers are inflated by NATS/Others, it makes them LOOK BIGGER by being in A COALITION.”
That’s because, as a Coalition, they ARE bigger. They have occasional disagreements but mostly work together, so it is meaningful to talk about a “Coalition” vote.
These days the difference between the Nationals and the Right of the Liberals needs a microscope to discern (apart from the Nationals mostly being stupider).
Someone on here said it well earlier (it might have been OC), to paraphrase: The problem with the Centre-left side of Australian politics is Labor has burned so many bridges and lost trust with so many, and have generally become very weak but the only thing keeping them in their slot is the fact that the only viable centre-left alternative (the Greens) have their own problems and are pretty disliked too.
Good Morning.
Things are as predicted by at least me are going from bad to worse for Morrison.
He has opened the door to real change on the climate policy or being rolled as Prime Minister. Desperate enough to be inspired by BW attacking inner city “elites”.