Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 33, Greens 12

An extensive look at the debut entry for what promises to be a monthly federal polling series from the Age/Herald.

The Age/Herald have published their first poll of federal voting intention since the 2019 election, dispensing with the services of Ipsos (who happened to be the least wrong pollster at the election) and enlisting Resolve Strategic, which is run by Jim Reed, who once worked for Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor. As national political editor Tory Maguire explains, the polling failure of the last election has inspired the pollster and its publisher to cast around for a fresh approach, the salient feature of which is not telling us straight what the two-party preferred is.

We do get primary votes though, and they are quite a bit different from Newspoll’s, with the Coalition on 38% rather than 40% and Labor on 33% rather than 38%. This means higher scores for minor parties, which happens to replicate a peculiarity of Ipsos. The Greens are on 12% compared with Newspoll’s 11%, but most striking is a 6% reading for One Nation compared with 2% from Newspoll. The latter result is, hopefully, a teething problem: it approximates the party’s 5.4% Senate vote in 2019, but most assuredly would not be matched in the House of Representatives since the party contests few seats there. It also seems highly unlikely that One Nation would be bearing up so well given its recent performance at state elections, with its share of the upper house vote in Western Australia having crashed from 8.2% to 1.5%.

Applying preference flows from 2019, this lands pretty much bang on 50-50 nationally, with the Coalition leading 53.4-46.6 in New South Wales (a 1.6% swing to the Coalition) and 54.3-45.7 in Queensland (a 4.1% swing to Labor), but trailing 53.8-46.2 in Victoria (a 0.7% swing to Labor) and 52.4-47.6 in Western Australia (an 8.0% swing to Labor). The New South Wales result is more favourable for the Coalition than the recent quarterly breakdown in Newspoll, which had it at 50-50, but the results for the other three states are about the same. Distinctions by gender are slight in the case of voting intention, except that the Greens are three points higher among women and One Nation are two points lower, and confounding in the case of personal ratings: Scott Morrison’s net approval is four points stronger among women than men, while Anthony Albanese’s is five points weaker.

Personal ratings are measured on a four-point scale of very good, good, poor and very poor, which is similar to Essential Research but different from Newspoll’s straightforward satisfied and unsatisfied responses. Morrison registers a combined good rating of 50% and a poor rating of 38%, a net rating of plus 12% that compares with plus 17% from a recent Essential poll and plus 15% from a not-so-recent Newspoll. Anthony Albanese scores 35% good and 41% poor, for a minus 6% rating that compares with plus 5% from Essential and plus 2% from Newspoll. Morrison is credited with a 47-25 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 47-28 in Essential and 52-32 in Newspoll.

The poll wins points for transparency, at least by Australian standards, in providing breakdowns by state (or at least, the four biggest states), gender and age cohort. If I’m reading the small print correctly, the New South Wales and Victoria breakdowns will be published as a two-month rolling average, combining the current and previous poll. The idea seems to be that these states will have results with sample sizes robust enough to allow the Age/Herald to analyse them with a straight face: readers who choose to probe deeper into the breakdowns will be advised to exercise their own caution. (UPDATE: It seems I’ve read this wrong, and that there will actually be state voting intention results published every two months, based on the combination of two monthly polling samples). However, the results as published still leave a fair bit missing, as the poll is also weighted for education and income (and the survey includes a question on religion), for which breakdowns are not provided. There is also the rather glaring absence of any detail on field work dates: we are told only that the survey was conducted “in April”.

One of two accompanying reports by David Crowe relates the following detail absent from the published numbers:

Support for the Coalition in primary vote terms has fallen since the last election among voters who described themselves as Christian, dropping from 56 to 49 per cent. While support for Labor among this group rose from 28 to 29 per cent, the change was within the margin of error. In a more significant shift, the same cohort increased its support for independents and minor parties from 15 to 22 per cent. The Coalition has lost ground among voters across the board since the last election, with its primary vote slipping from 41 to 38 per cent, but the shift was strongest among immigrants and people from “non-Anglo-Saxon” backgrounds. Immigrants have reduced their support for the Coalition from 48 to 40 per cent since the election, while increasing their primary vote for Labor from 30 to 35 per cent. Those from “non-Anglo” backgrounds reduced their support for the Coalition from 44 to 35 per cent, while increasing their support for Labor from 31 to 36 per cent.

The other tells us the following:

The swing against the Coalition was spread evenly across most demographic groups but was more pronounced among those on higher incomes, with support falling from 49 to 43 per cent among those earning more than $100,000 a year. Labor gained support from the same workers, with its primary vote rising from 29 to 33 per cent.

There are further attitudinal results available in a nicely laid out results display page, including the finding that 44% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 28% for Labor. The display includes, under “comments”, sampling of qualitative responses that aim for an impressionistic view of why the ratings for each question are what they are. The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2000, compared with the Newspoll norm of around 1500. However, the phone sample of 400 appears to be a one-off of this “baseline survey”: it seems that in future the series will be a monthly online poll from a sample of 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,090 thoughts on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 33, Greens 12”

  1. Indeed, possible the only active service he saw was at the Battle of the Wazzir
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Wazzir and he certainly had some prolonged and painful treatments for his battle wounds
    Still I think I’ll march in next year’s parade in his memory

    To quote one particular Anzacareer after the bones of her great great uncle were recently found in a foreign field; “our family finally has closure”

  2. dave
    I like what the Russians do for their commemorative marches. The relies carry pictures of their ancestor who fought. They call it the march of the immortal regiment.

  3. poroti

    Yep – why not.

    We just need to dial ours back – Its supposed to be about those who served – not those wanting to deal themselves in, including commercially.

  4. There are now less than 10k WW2 veterans in Australia, the youngest, officially is 94. Soon there will be none. It would be a good time to break the nationalism that has predominated on ANZAC Day for the last 4 decades but I can’t see it changing by government action.

  5. So, no Newspoll yet. Though I think we’ll get one tonight.

    Also, I just realised that Christian Porter is due back in parliament when they resume for the Budget session.

    Lock up your daughters, Canberra!

  6. Poroti
    Who sponsors that and what date.
    Russia’s big government supported civil ceremony and military parade is still Victory over Fascism Day on 9 May.
    Here’s the start of the 2017 ceremony, “the Reichstag flag” and the Russian flag are paraded in Red Square to the sounds of “Sacred War”
    https://youtu.be/8jlpGpxz98Y

  7. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 8:53 pm

    There are now less than 10k WW2 veterans in Australia, the youngest, officially is 94. Soon there will be none. It would be a good time to break the nationalism that has predominated on ANZAC Day for the last 4 decades but I can’t see it changing by government action.’

    There are around 39,000 Afghanistan vets, many of whom are going to be around for a lot longer than most Bludger posters.

  8. Oakeshott Country @ #2055 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 8:53 pm

    There are now less than 10k WW2 veterans in Australia, the youngest, officially is 94. Soon there will be none. It would be a good time to break the nationalism that has predominated on ANZAC Day for the last 4 decades but I can’t see it changing by government action.

    Even the Long Tan blokes are mid 70’s.

  9. Just watched a TV show I recorded 6 months ago (Lewis). In an ad break there was a six month old news bulletin. NSW had more Covid cases than Victoria. Then we were told that Premier Gladys was under increasing pressure to resign because of her relationship with a dodgy MP who was allegedly receiving bags of money from developers. Now all blown over, all forgotten.

    There are very much double standards applied to Coalition and Labor Premiers, Ministers and PMs. A Labor Premier would have been long since hounded out of office by now.

    P.S. Edit still works for me.

  10. I think I have seen posts that suggest Lars lives in a large city. If so, his attitude is pretty typical.

    There may be alternatives to Aust Post in the big smoke, but once you get past the city limits that is not the case. AP does much more that process mail, an increasing volume of which is parcels. The parcels business is the bit the greedy aresholes in the Liberal Party want their mates to get hold of.

    Australia Post represents every Federal Govt. department that doesn’t have a local presence, in the country that’s all of them. As a small sample, country people use AP for banking, paying accounts for Federal, State, & Local Govt. agencies, getting a passport, and many more services. The Nats must have a death wish if they allow the Libs to get away with it.

  11. Boarwar, I don’t think 39,000 Afghanistan veterans will save ANZAC Day. The Vietnam War was televised, everyone knew about it. If you don’t have a friend or relative serving in the Middle East, most people wouldn’t even know it was happening.

    If it’s not on Facebook it doesn’t exist.

  12. AP does much more that process mail, an increasing volume of which is parcels. The parcels business is the bit the greedy aresholes in the Liberal Party want their mates to get hold of.

    Exactly the bit LvT left out of their antediluvian AP perspective. The most important bit.

  13. Coalition lifts as support for PM rebounds

    The Coalition has recovered ahead of the May budget, with support for the government returning to 2019 election levels amid a boost in popularity for Scott Morrison.

    #Newspoll 51-49 to ALP
    #Newspoll Morrison net +22 (59-37)
    Albanese net -3 (40-43)
    Skewed Better PM Metric: Morrison leads 56-30

  14. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 8:53 pm
    There are now less than 10k WW2 veterans in Australia, the youngest, officially is 94. Soon there will be none. It would be a good time to break the nationalism that has predominated on ANZAC Day for the last 4 decades but I can’t see it changing by government action.
    ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Nor can I. Remember there are still plenty of Vietnam and now Afghan war veterans who’ll be marching for years to come, not to mention their children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren and so on.
    Until relatively recently, descendants of veterans could not march, only veterans themselves were entitled. In the 1960s, one Anzac Day regular remarked that fewer and fewer marchers were turning up for the event and that one day, no one would be there. He said that when that occurred, Anzac Day festivities ought to be allowed to die along with them, as they would have served their purpose.
    However, the political and commercial interests surrounding Anzac Day are determined to keep it going. Although this is not an altogether bad thing, I am concerned that the day is turning into a mindless celebration of Australian military involvement, with little reflection on the fact that some wars Australia were involved were pointless and plainly wrong.
    This is reflected in some marchers’ comments that their great-grandfathers and others fought to keep Australia free, with little reflection on just what that particular war was about.
    We need more education about our country’s history and less public exaltation over its military adventures.

  15. Oakeshott Country
    It is on May 9 , looks like a separate part of usual commemoration of victory in The Great Patriotic War.
    .
    The Immortal Regiment (Russian: Бессмертный полк; Bessmertniy Polk) is a massive civil event staged in major cities in Russia and around the world every 9 May during the Victory Day celebrations.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immortal_Regiment

  16. #Newspoll LNP 41 ALP 38 Green 10 ON 3 others 8

    Not exactly sure why Simon Benson is gushing – perhaps Bridget McKenzie is winding him up?

  17. Promo in front on Murdoch’s reckoning… from Dr Bonham

    #Newspoll Morrison net +22 (59-37)

    Albanese net -3 (40-43)

    Skewed Better PM Metric: Morrison leads 56-30.

  18. Sir Henry Parkes

    I am concerned that the day is turning into a mindless celebration of Australian military involvement, with little reflection on the fact that some wars Australia were involved were pointless and plainly wrong.

    Perfect role for the Vietnam and Afghanistan marchers. The Afghan contingent can even have a “war crimes” squad marching.

  19. Sir Henry Parkes
    Obviously keeping the Hapsburgs out of the Balkans was vital to keep Australia free.
    Those who signed up knew that

  20. ALP primary +5 from 2019 election
    LNP primary no change from 2019 election

    Simon Benson calling a triumph for ScottyFromMurdoch

  21. Sprocket

    #Newspoll LNP 41 ALP 38 Green 10 ON 3 others 8

    Not exactly sure why Simon Benson is gushing – perhaps Bridget McKenzie is winding him up?

    Completely agree. The headlines are all about the great resurgence of the Coalition, but LNP/ALP 41/ 38 definitely should put Labor in striking distance.

    But, we have Greens 10, ON 3 and Others 8.

    Does this mean Greens (10) Labor friendly preferences, with (ON (3) + Others (8)) for a total of (11) Coalition friendly preferences?

    If this is the case, then progressive (ALP + Greens) = 48
    Conservative (LNP + ON + Others) = 52.

    A crude analysis, but it does explain why the Coalition are delighted with the result.

  22. One can only assume that Newspoll are not going to corrupt their own polling so it must be correct – or close to correct. That being the case, it is either a horrible reflection on Albanese or a horrible reflection on the Australian people. I know Albanese isn’t cutting through, simply what people from very different situations tell me. Many of these will be voting Labor regardless of who leads them, or what Rupert Murdoch or Simon Benson or anyone else says. But I haven’t heard a single person tell me that they are impressed by Albanese and, unfortunately, fairly or unfairly, they think he is a total dud. The fact that almost universally they detest Morrison while having that opinion of Albanese speaks volumes. It’s time for him to go. In the face of all the disasters and all the evidence of Morrison’s corruption and incompetence, of rapes and vaccine failures, of Christensen and Dutton and Porter and Reynolds and Taylor and the rest of this utter circus, if this is the best that he can manage then he needs to be managed out. Nice bloke or otherwise.

    That all said, there is a lot of Australia that I don’t like and a fair bit that I hate. I used to feel a bit guilty about spending so much time and money overseas. Not any more. I can’t wait for the day to come – if it comes – when I can get away from this racist, stupid, selfish country again. The despair is overwhelming sometimes.

  23. Although this stat is nearly three years old, it nevertheless suggests that there is perhaps a way to go before the demise of ANZAC Day, bearing in mind that when a Vet dies, his/her kin very often maintain the tradition of marching and wearing the deceased medals on their right breast:

    ‘As at 30 June 2018, DVA estimated that there were around 641,000 living Australian veterans who have ever served in the ADF, either full time or in the reserves (DVA 2018a). This estimate was derived using ADF enlistment information and assumptions about mortality based on Australian population mortality data; it covers veterans who have served from World War II onwards.’

    https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/1b8bd886-7b49-4b9b-9163-152021a014df/aihw-phe-235.pdf.aspx?inline=true

    Despite this stat, after consuming copious amounts of rum and the loss of a small fortune at Two-up today, I do hope the end of Anzac Day is just around the corner.

  24. Oakeshott Country @ #2008 Sunday, April 25th, 2021 – 6:57 pm

    A short explanation of the RSL salute that can be traced to 1920.
    The twitter partisan could have found this himself if he had bothered to look
    https://www.rslangelescity.com/rsl-salute

    There’s a difference between using that hand to cover your medals as per the RSL salute and aping the hand on heart American rubbish. What medals have either Howard (pictured earlier) or Morrison worn?

  25. Larf of the day provided by a bitterly jealous person of the English persuasion . Poor Zoe 😆
    .
    .
    The antipodes may be sunny and lovely, but their coronavirus control freakery means their inhabitants are locked down in perpetuity, writes UK columnist Zoe Strimpel

    …………………. This is more than can be said for the residents of Australia and New Zealand, countries that chose the path – much lauded by the everyone-must-suffer-to-the-max control freaks of the Left – of total imprisonment in perpetuity. …………..the government rules with a Stalin-grade iron fist. It has made its prison, and now it wants to romp around in it – seemingly indefinitely.

    It’s almost too painful to watch.
    Last week, we saw scenes of Aussie and New Zealander ecstasy as the desperately awaited travel bubble between the two countries was opened. Faced with the footage of relatives hugging at ghostly arrivals halls in Auckland and Sydney, and the forced jollity from the head of a decimated Qantas at the news, I found myself cackling bitterly. So much gratitude for something so tragically paltry.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/zoe-strimpel-covid-restrictions-mean-australasians-have-never-looked-so-imprisoned/B5NPTJCHBC4MHQV2AFS47ZNL6U/
    Inmates in the Antipodean Gulag soaking up some music last night would love to give Zoe a wave and a “wish you were here” 🙂

Comments Page 42 of 42
1 41 42

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *