Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 33, Greens 12

An extensive look at the debut entry for what promises to be a monthly federal polling series from the Age/Herald.

The Age/Herald have published their first poll of federal voting intention since the 2019 election, dispensing with the services of Ipsos (who happened to be the least wrong pollster at the election) and enlisting Resolve Strategic, which is run by Jim Reed, who once worked for Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor. As national political editor Tory Maguire explains, the polling failure of the last election has inspired the pollster and its publisher to cast around for a fresh approach, the salient feature of which is not telling us straight what the two-party preferred is.

We do get primary votes though, and they are quite a bit different from Newspoll’s, with the Coalition on 38% rather than 40% and Labor on 33% rather than 38%. This means higher scores for minor parties, which happens to replicate a peculiarity of Ipsos. The Greens are on 12% compared with Newspoll’s 11%, but most striking is a 6% reading for One Nation compared with 2% from Newspoll. The latter result is, hopefully, a teething problem: it approximates the party’s 5.4% Senate vote in 2019, but most assuredly would not be matched in the House of Representatives since the party contests few seats there. It also seems highly unlikely that One Nation would be bearing up so well given its recent performance at state elections, with its share of the upper house vote in Western Australia having crashed from 8.2% to 1.5%.

Applying preference flows from 2019, this lands pretty much bang on 50-50 nationally, with the Coalition leading 53.4-46.6 in New South Wales (a 1.6% swing to the Coalition) and 54.3-45.7 in Queensland (a 4.1% swing to Labor), but trailing 53.8-46.2 in Victoria (a 0.7% swing to Labor) and 52.4-47.6 in Western Australia (an 8.0% swing to Labor). The New South Wales result is more favourable for the Coalition than the recent quarterly breakdown in Newspoll, which had it at 50-50, but the results for the other three states are about the same. Distinctions by gender are slight in the case of voting intention, except that the Greens are three points higher among women and One Nation are two points lower, and confounding in the case of personal ratings: Scott Morrison’s net approval is four points stronger among women than men, while Anthony Albanese’s is five points weaker.

Personal ratings are measured on a four-point scale of very good, good, poor and very poor, which is similar to Essential Research but different from Newspoll’s straightforward satisfied and unsatisfied responses. Morrison registers a combined good rating of 50% and a poor rating of 38%, a net rating of plus 12% that compares with plus 17% from a recent Essential poll and plus 15% from a not-so-recent Newspoll. Anthony Albanese scores 35% good and 41% poor, for a minus 6% rating that compares with plus 5% from Essential and plus 2% from Newspoll. Morrison is credited with a 47-25 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 47-28 in Essential and 52-32 in Newspoll.

The poll wins points for transparency, at least by Australian standards, in providing breakdowns by state (or at least, the four biggest states), gender and age cohort. If I’m reading the small print correctly, the New South Wales and Victoria breakdowns will be published as a two-month rolling average, combining the current and previous poll. The idea seems to be that these states will have results with sample sizes robust enough to allow the Age/Herald to analyse them with a straight face: readers who choose to probe deeper into the breakdowns will be advised to exercise their own caution. (UPDATE: It seems I’ve read this wrong, and that there will actually be state voting intention results published every two months, based on the combination of two monthly polling samples). However, the results as published still leave a fair bit missing, as the poll is also weighted for education and income (and the survey includes a question on religion), for which breakdowns are not provided. There is also the rather glaring absence of any detail on field work dates: we are told only that the survey was conducted “in April”.

One of two accompanying reports by David Crowe relates the following detail absent from the published numbers:

Support for the Coalition in primary vote terms has fallen since the last election among voters who described themselves as Christian, dropping from 56 to 49 per cent. While support for Labor among this group rose from 28 to 29 per cent, the change was within the margin of error. In a more significant shift, the same cohort increased its support for independents and minor parties from 15 to 22 per cent. The Coalition has lost ground among voters across the board since the last election, with its primary vote slipping from 41 to 38 per cent, but the shift was strongest among immigrants and people from “non-Anglo-Saxon” backgrounds. Immigrants have reduced their support for the Coalition from 48 to 40 per cent since the election, while increasing their primary vote for Labor from 30 to 35 per cent. Those from “non-Anglo” backgrounds reduced their support for the Coalition from 44 to 35 per cent, while increasing their support for Labor from 31 to 36 per cent.

The other tells us the following:

The swing against the Coalition was spread evenly across most demographic groups but was more pronounced among those on higher incomes, with support falling from 49 to 43 per cent among those earning more than $100,000 a year. Labor gained support from the same workers, with its primary vote rising from 29 to 33 per cent.

There are further attitudinal results available in a nicely laid out results display page, including the finding that 44% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 28% for Labor. The display includes, under “comments”, sampling of qualitative responses that aim for an impressionistic view of why the ratings for each question are what they are. The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2000, compared with the Newspoll norm of around 1500. However, the phone sample of 400 appears to be a one-off of this “baseline survey”: it seems that in future the series will be a monthly online poll from a sample of 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,090 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 38, Labor 33, Greens 12”

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  1. Kyle Jacob “Bunny-Boy” de Boer ZebraRabbit face
    @Bababooie42

    Hey@ScottMorrisonMP
    , that #Milkshake fail cost 760 Cartier Watches.
    Who’s resigning, and when?

  2. Even the Tories in the UK leaving Smoko behind:

    Boris Johnson is set to announce steeper cuts to the Britain’s carbon emissions.

    The Prime Minister will commit to slashing emissions by 78% by 2035 compared with 1990 levels, according to the Financial Times.

    The pledge is expected as the UK prepares to host the COP26 international climate change summit in Glasgow in November.

    It would mark a significant step forward on the current UK commitment to cut emissions by 68% by 2030 – already one of the most ambitious plans among developed nations.

    Emissions from international aviation and shipping are likely to be included, it is reported, making the target even harder to meet.

  3. Looking at the numbers for higher income earners would be of some concern for the Liberals in seats like Chisholm Higgins Reid Wentworth Brisbane and Boothsby. If the Liberals start losing those seats it is hard to see where the gains will come from.

  4. Lizzie,
    HI and I had our AZ shots yesterday and were fine . Today, HI felt a bit odd playing golf and I’m a bit achy after playing badminton for the first time in 50 + years!! (I’d like to blame it for my slow reflexes around the court, while playing with others 20 years younger. )
    Will keep you posted if we have any other side effects.
    My daughter had the Pfizer and she had blinding headaches for an hour or so that day but otherwise fine.

  5. Just had ABC Hard Quiz on for background noise..
    Tom Gleeson questions panel ” Scott Morrison is the PM .. who is leader of the opposition”… question was unanswered… small straw poll but that is unbelievable!

  6. Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 5:54 pm
    Hi Lizzie from earlier. Had the vaccination last Tuesday and pretty well had the full range of common side effects. Flu like symptoms including head ache, chills for one night, joint pains, tiredness, red swelling around the injection area and muscle pain

  7. davidwh

    Thank you. I’m hoping my son can stay with me for a day or two when I eventually have it, because frankly I can only just manage to look after myself and the dogs when I’m OK.

  8. ”Just had ABC Hard Quiz on for background noise..
    Tom Gleeson questions panel ” Scott Morrison is the PM .. who is leader of the opposition”… question was unanswered… small straw poll but that is unbelievable!”

    I believe it.

    Certainly that result would be replicated in a poll of NSW residents regarding the leader of the NSW State Opposition.

    —-

    My background noise is ABC NewsRadio. It might make me more well-informed about World and National issues, but I tend not to know much about local (Sydney) stuff, sensational local crime, the latest culture-war memes, the depredations of alleged dole bludgers, ethnic/youth gangs and other pariahs, celebrity trivia or other stuff that I would get from the commercials. It means I often get lost in conversations.

  9. “Quasarsays:
    Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 5:40 pm”

    It looks like You and HI are achy because both of you played sports a day after jab. I could be wrong but hopefully not because it better to have aches due to playing sports than otherwise.

    I had my AZ COVID vaccination yesterday morning and by God’s grace no pains till now. BTW, I did not play sports. 🙂

  10. The Resolve political monitor William links above shows 43% think the LNP are better economic managers vs 21% for Labor.

    When will this falsehood ever end?

  11. “Scepticsays:
    Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 5:54 pm
    Just had ABC Hard Quiz on for background noise..
    Tom Gleeson questions panel ” Scott Morrison is the PM .. who is leader of the opposition”… question was unanswered… small straw poll but that is unbelievable!”

    Why is it unbelievable.? He is so low profile.

  12. “mikehilliardsays:
    Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 6:19 pm
    The Resolve political monitor William links above shows 43% think the LNP are better economic managers vs 21% for Labor.

    When will this falsehood ever end?”

    Probably never.

  13. Murdoch’s Oz just now – forget about the Pfizer bonanza promised by Morrison:

    Extra 20m Pfizer doses not guaranteed

    Australia’s top health bureaucrat can’t provide vaccine timetable, and says ‘supply with certainty’ of extra Pfizer jabs is ‘limited’ and subject to ‘ongoing reassessment’.

    2 MINUTES AGO By ROSIE LEWIS, ADESHOLA ORE, NICHOLAS JENSEN

  14. “porotisays:
    Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 6:20 pm
    Ven

    He is so low profile.

    All part of his cunning plan………………………….apparently.”

    🙂 .
    BTW, Did you have your COVID jab?

  15. Ven
    Not yet. Hopefully the Pfizer one when I do , I’d have the AZ no probs but why not go for one with higher efficacy ?

  16. GG

    2 things odd about Promo at the pool table

    1. Sarah Henderson is only one of 3 of 20 in the shot without a camera, but with a shit-eating grin.
    2. You are meant to hit the white ball.

  17. Is that pool table photo legit and not photoshopped? Seriously, who doesn’t know you’re supposed to hit the cue ball?!

    EDIT: Upon closer examination it doesn’t look like he’s taking the shot but is instead examining the table to plan a shot across the other side. With the cue ball in the centre of the table, that’s a reasonable position to consider taking it from, depending on what you want to pocket.


  18. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 6:04 pm

    What is wrong with this photo?

    Morrison in the PM, why not?

  19. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 6:04 pm

    What is wrong with this photo?’

    Nothing. Nailed it. Morrison cheats at pool as well as at everything else.

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.THEY.CORRUPT.

  20. “davidwhsays:
    Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 5:58 pm
    Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 5:54 pm
    Hi Lizzie from earlier. Had the vaccination last Tuesday and pretty well had the full range of common side effects. Flu like symptoms including head ache, chills for one night, joint pains, tiredness, red swelling around the injection area and muscle pain”

    I had my vaccine yesterday afternoon. Thankfully, I did not have any side effects till now. Can someone clarify whether there is any chance that I will any side effects in future?

  21. Actually strike that, it’s an awkward angle to be positioning a legitimate shot from. I still am skeptical he doesn’t know to hit the cue ball. Worst I can imagine is he might just be doing a pose for the cameras without any consideration for what’s on the table.

    Without seeing this event in full, one can only guess.

  22. NSW Liberal disgraced minister Chris Sidoti has an interesting defence to the evidence he gave his family investments a saloon passage…

    ‘NSW MP John Sidoti has told a corruption inquiry he repeatedly signed documents without reading them and had no “real understanding” of what they meant.

    The Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) is investigating allegations Mr Sidoti misused his position to influence planning decisions at Canada Bay Council from 2011 to 2018 to advance his family property interests around Five Dock in Sydney’s inner west.

    Mr Sidoti — the Member for Drummoyne — stood aside as NSW Sports Minister in September 2019 after ICAC began investigating his property investments.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/not-sure-what-i-ve-signed-sidoti-s-first-day-in-icac-stand-20210420-p57ko1.html

  23. Ex Liberal Minister Sidoti didn’t read the documents he signed relating to this…

    ‘Mr Sidoti also gave evidence that he and his wife used a dormant company originally set up by his parents to purchase a share of land in Rouse Hill for a 290-unit development in 2015.

    The value of the land, close to the new North West Rail Link, was subsequently said to increase from $4.1 million to $70 million after favourable planning decisions.

    The Independent Commission Against Corruption is investigating if Mr Sidoti misused his position to improperly influence Liberal councillors from 2011-2018.

    The inquiry has focused on Mr Sidoti’s lobbying to rezone blocks in Five Dock where his parents owned property, despite experts finding it was not in the public interest. It is also examining if Mr Sidoti breached public trust by failing to disclose pecuniary interests between 2011 and 2019.’

  24. GG: The rules are, you shoot via the white ball. If his minders can’t get this right…(?) unless the pic has been shopped. His knowledge of spots and stripes matches his judgment, but still, his approval doubles that of his protagonist.

  25. Ven

    Lots of developer payola lining the Liberal fundraising in Drummoyne and the Greater West – Sidoti just the one who’s been caught

  26. Hey BK

    We have our birthday tomorrow.

    Us and HM QE2

    Poor old chook

    Anyway many happy returns as I won’t probably be near the internet tomorrow.

  27. And of course thanks for another year of the Dawn Patrol

    (And those others that filled in at a pinch)

    Was the only thing that kept me going at times.

  28. I had my 1st AZ shot 2 weeks ago with no noticeable ill effects. Life went on as usual.
    I still find it very hard to believe that voters think that the LNP are better economic managers. With the utter waste of money in the Jobkeeper policy, the roots that have gone on, they had already more than tripled the debt before Covid 19. Now I heard today we are now back where we were before Covid 19. That means we are still in trouble.

  29. Happy birthday for tomorrow BK, and Marcos also.

    My birthday is Friday (same as Shakespeare).

    Lizzie, my 85 year old mother had her AZ vaccine 3 weeks ago, and had no symptoms whatsoever. Just 1 instance, but hopefully you will be lucky.

  30. As for wine bars, they exist in Sydney, but these days brewpubs, and whisky and gin bars are all the thing. Baxters Inn is pretty good as a whisky bar, but there are also a lot of others.

  31. My 90 year old mother had her first AZ vaccine shot 3 weeks ago with no side effects whatsoever. She does have mild leukaemia which appears to have not been an issue.

  32. D & M

    Remember how Trump was keen on Plaquenil as a sorta cure for Covid and caused a shortage?

    As it happens I take it for a type of rheumatoid arthritis, so it will be interesting to see whether it protects me from the vax effects.

  33. Lizzie

    Remember how Trump was keen on Plaquenil as a sorta cure for Covid and caused a shortage?

    As it happens I take it for a type of rheumatoid arthritis, so it will be interesting to see whether it protects me from the vax effects.

    Ahh, it might just do that – does it stop your auto-immune system going into overdrive?

    Let us know how you go.

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