The Age/Herald have published their first poll of federal voting intention since the 2019 election, dispensing with the services of Ipsos (who happened to be the least wrong pollster at the election) and enlisting Resolve Strategic, which is run by Jim Reed, who once worked for Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor. As national political editor Tory Maguire explains, the polling failure of the last election has inspired the pollster and its publisher to cast around for a fresh approach, the salient feature of which is not telling us straight what the two-party preferred is.
We do get primary votes though, and they are quite a bit different from Newspoll’s, with the Coalition on 38% rather than 40% and Labor on 33% rather than 38%. This means higher scores for minor parties, which happens to replicate a peculiarity of Ipsos. The Greens are on 12% compared with Newspoll’s 11%, but most striking is a 6% reading for One Nation compared with 2% from Newspoll. The latter result is, hopefully, a teething problem: it approximates the party’s 5.4% Senate vote in 2019, but most assuredly would not be matched in the House of Representatives since the party contests few seats there. It also seems highly unlikely that One Nation would be bearing up so well given its recent performance at state elections, with its share of the upper house vote in Western Australia having crashed from 8.2% to 1.5%.
Applying preference flows from 2019, this lands pretty much bang on 50-50 nationally, with the Coalition leading 53.4-46.6 in New South Wales (a 1.6% swing to the Coalition) and 54.3-45.7 in Queensland (a 4.1% swing to Labor), but trailing 53.8-46.2 in Victoria (a 0.7% swing to Labor) and 52.4-47.6 in Western Australia (an 8.0% swing to Labor). The New South Wales result is more favourable for the Coalition than the recent quarterly breakdown in Newspoll, which had it at 50-50, but the results for the other three states are about the same. Distinctions by gender are slight in the case of voting intention, except that the Greens are three points higher among women and One Nation are two points lower, and confounding in the case of personal ratings: Scott Morrison’s net approval is four points stronger among women than men, while Anthony Albanese’s is five points weaker.
Personal ratings are measured on a four-point scale of very good, good, poor and very poor, which is similar to Essential Research but different from Newspoll’s straightforward satisfied and unsatisfied responses. Morrison registers a combined good rating of 50% and a poor rating of 38%, a net rating of plus 12% that compares with plus 17% from a recent Essential poll and plus 15% from a not-so-recent Newspoll. Anthony Albanese scores 35% good and 41% poor, for a minus 6% rating that compares with plus 5% from Essential and plus 2% from Newspoll. Morrison is credited with a 47-25 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 47-28 in Essential and 52-32 in Newspoll.
The poll wins points for transparency, at least by Australian standards, in providing breakdowns by state (or at least, the four biggest states), gender and age cohort. If I’m reading the small print correctly, the New South Wales and Victoria breakdowns will be published as a two-month rolling average, combining the current and previous poll. The idea seems to be that these states will have results with sample sizes robust enough to allow the Age/Herald to analyse them with a straight face: readers who choose to probe deeper into the breakdowns will be advised to exercise their own caution. (UPDATE: It seems I’ve read this wrong, and that there will actually be state voting intention results published every two months, based on the combination of two monthly polling samples). However, the results as published still leave a fair bit missing, as the poll is also weighted for education and income (and the survey includes a question on religion), for which breakdowns are not provided. There is also the rather glaring absence of any detail on field work dates: we are told only that the survey was conducted “in April”.
One of two accompanying reports by David Crowe relates the following detail absent from the published numbers:
Support for the Coalition in primary vote terms has fallen since the last election among voters who described themselves as Christian, dropping from 56 to 49 per cent. While support for Labor among this group rose from 28 to 29 per cent, the change was within the margin of error. In a more significant shift, the same cohort increased its support for independents and minor parties from 15 to 22 per cent. The Coalition has lost ground among voters across the board since the last election, with its primary vote slipping from 41 to 38 per cent, but the shift was strongest among immigrants and people from “non-Anglo-Saxon” backgrounds. Immigrants have reduced their support for the Coalition from 48 to 40 per cent since the election, while increasing their primary vote for Labor from 30 to 35 per cent. Those from “non-Anglo” backgrounds reduced their support for the Coalition from 44 to 35 per cent, while increasing their support for Labor from 31 to 36 per cent.
The other tells us the following:
The swing against the Coalition was spread evenly across most demographic groups but was more pronounced among those on higher incomes, with support falling from 49 to 43 per cent among those earning more than $100,000 a year. Labor gained support from the same workers, with its primary vote rising from 29 to 33 per cent.
There are further attitudinal results available in a nicely laid out results display page, including the finding that 44% expect the Coalition to win the next election compared with 28% for Labor. The display includes, under “comments”, sampling of qualitative responses that aim for an impressionistic view of why the ratings for each question are what they are. The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 2000, compared with the Newspoll norm of around 1500. However, the phone sample of 400 appears to be a one-off of this “baseline survey”: it seems that in future the series will be a monthly online poll from a sample of 1600.
Re birthdays, tomorrow the Queen turns 95.
I have been publicly shamed on my knowledge of wine bars in Sydney, or rather the extreme lack of such knowledge.
No wonder I left Gotham Sydney for the simpler, rustic torpor of the Glorious Mid-North Coast of NSW, to wit Snoozeville NSW.
Sydney’s loss is Pacific Palms’ gain (or so my conceit would have it).
Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.
BB
I’m disappointed in you. How am I to take you seriously ever again?
I do not think I have led a particularly sheltered life, but some popular culture meme have passed me by.
Twitter has explained to me today, in lurid detail, what milkshakes and “peanut butter” milkshakes actually refer to.
Were the makers of the “milkshake video” really just dumbasses from Utah, or were they taking the piss while taking a cool 3.6 million from our Australian government (i.e. us dumb voters)?
BB
I had a memory of spending an afternoon drinking wine in the Stoned Crow wine bar in the late 70s but I looked it up today and it now proudly boasts that it’s turned into a pub.
The “Good Society” agenda just gets weirder and weirder:
Lizzie says:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 7:19 pm
“I had a memory of spending an afternoon drinking wine in the Stoned Crow wine bar in the late 70s but I looked it up today and it now proudly boasts that it’s turned into a pub.”
There was a venue called the Stoned Crow in North Fremantle which changed its name to Mojo’s and is one of Perth’s premier live venues. Master B has played a couple of gigs there.
Miss B is 79 years behind her Majesty tomorrow. Happy B’day to all celebrating tomorrow.
Lizzie,
“Gastro Pubs” as found in London, are all the rage here now. Although the actual term “Gastro Pub” was quickly dropped in the Australian incarnation.
I ate at quite a few of them when we were visiting my boys in London, but would always have a quiet giggle at the designation.
Douglas and Milko:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 6:58 pm
[‘My birthday is Friday (same as Shakespeare).’]
Speaking of Shakespeare, there’s a brilliant film on SBS On Demand titled “All Is True”, an alternative name for “Henry VIII”, starring Branagh, Dench:
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/dec/21/all-is-true-review-ben-elton-kenneth-branagh-shakespeare
It’ll be difficult, DN, but I know that if anyone can pull it off, it’s got to be you.
Maybe I’ll be able to get a hint from one of ScoMo’s videos.
Mavis,
About to watch All Is True now.
Bushfire Bill:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 7:42 pm
[‘About to watch All Is True now.’]
Enjoy as much as I did.
Been a long time since I’ve been in “The Stoned Crow”.
From previous thread:
Simon Katich @ #1224 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 12:35 pm
Actually no clear association between smoking cannabis and significant respiratory system morbidity, let alone related mortality, beyond some bronchial symptoms.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17035389/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23802821/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29778658/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32285993/
Though cleaner delivery mechanisms are always preferable.
——–
poroti @ #21 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 5:50 pm
If you were opposition leader what would you do differently?
Mavis
Thanks! I will definitely check this out.
Should Marijuana be legalised, I expect that it would be subject to the same restrictions as applied to smoking. Basically adults only, not in workplaces or indoor hospitality / entertainment venues, not near playgrounds, etc. Like tobacco smoking, don’t force people nearby to ingest your drug. Also don’t drive with the stuff in your system.
Steve7^3,
I’ll see your “Stoned Crow” and raise you a “Grape Escape”.
I suspect the PMs knowledge of pool equals his knowledge of Rugby League
The Grape Escape – I think that was a restaurant in …Neutral Bay? I recall that my work team had an end of project celebration there in the early 1980s.
Any good pool player would know that’s the standard position for strategizing your next shot and where you want the white ball to finish.
The game that the PM was pretending to play was Snooker.
I see your knowledge of pool equals the PMs – snooker does not have striped balls
Taylormade can’t help himself.
SmoCo would have no idea what he is doing. He would never had played on a snooker or billard table in his entire life.
Another photo opportunity for the 24 news cycle and for his primary audience – the boof head tradie.
Cud Chewer says:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 3:30 pm
“Snappy Tom
Did you catch my reply?”
Hi Cud Chewer
I assume you mean in relation to fast rail.
Firstly, I have chosen a life of relative techno illiteracy, so don’t know how to contact you directly…help!
Also, you indicate renovating existing railways to high speed standard can cost up to three times building new. I assume such renovation costs include implementing alternative arrangements for interruptions to existing rail traffic. I also note that the ‘hotrails’ concept assumes diesel propulsion, meaning the renovation does not include electrification. I read somewhere that electrifying a rail line can increase its cost by a factor of up to four.
Anyway, I’d love to get in touch, just don’t know how!
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 8:09 pm
Any good pool player would know that’s the standard position for strategizing your next shot and where you want the white ball to finish.
You really are a tryhard. Much more likely he is after the yellow ball and the photograph has some projection issues. Note the yellow ball is an oval and the PM actually seems to be aiming nowhere.
As a young sailor, I had to learn to touch type, as WRANS didn’t go to sea in my day. We hated it; our hands covered over, with the ever-present threat of being smacked over the knuckles with a ruler. Anyway, I passed out at 30 words a minute (the minimum requirement), never thinking of the utility of being able to type without looking at the keys. If asked where the keys are now I couldn’t tell you but it’s ingrained, similar I guess to piano keys. Anyway, my point is, judging by the alacrity of others to both think and type concomitantly, I reckon that there a number of others who can touch type. Another thing, one of my jobs was to type a monthly Report of Proceedings (ROP), which essentially is a historical record of what went on in the ship in the preceding month. Typing on an old Olivetti typewriter, with a strike of six, was, to say the least, fraught, particularly in bad weather. But the real worry was when the ROP reached the Fleet Commander, who would send it back to the commanding officer detailing mistakes in green. I think this is where I developed OCD.
Thanks JM.
I should retract and change what I said to ‘not a proven killer’.
I note that one of the more recent of the articles you posted says
“An association between cannabis and lung cancer remains unproven, with studies providing conflicting findings.”
The Lung Association website has this
“ Smoke is harmful to lung health. Whether from burning wood, tobacco or marijuana, toxins and carcinogens are released from the combustion of materials. Smoke from marijuana combustion has been shown to contain many of the same toxins, irritants and carcinogens as tobacco smoke.4-7
Beyond just what’s in the smoke alone, marijuana is typically smoked differently than tobacco. Marijuana smokers tend to inhale more deeply and hold their breath longer than cigarette smokers, which leads to a greater exposure per breath to tar.”
Whilst I fully agree that someone smoking a joint at home should not be a criminal matter, I am concerned that the efforts to fully relax laws should be done with some care.
https://www.lung.org/quit-smoking/smoking-facts/health-effects/marijuana-and-lung-health
Or get good at soaking it in butter and making dark chocolate and raspberry banana hash cake.
Any good pool player would know that’s the standard position for strategizing your next shot and where you want the white ball to finish.
____
That’s if he was actually playing a game and was thinking about setting up the next few shots, Not in this case though.
Would we legalise tobacco if it was banned and we knew its effects?
Alcohol?
Do we really think that inhaling any superheated gas into the lungs does not have health effects?
These are fascinating questions
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/04/ditching-2pp-wont-resolve-australias.html
Ditching Two-Party Preferred Won’t Resolve Australia’s Polling Problems
My initial response to the new Resolve poll.
Or get good at soaking it in butter and making dark chocolate and raspberry banana hash cake.
Now you’re talking. 🙂
lizzie
I had A-Z last week. I was really worried about it but no worries at all. My arm was a little sore next day but didn’t swell as it does with flue shot each year.
I slept most of the next day which was great and that’s all. I worried for nothing.
Unfortunately OH had a TIA the day before so Dr has cancelled his shot for now.
John Sidoti, former NSW Sports Minister, seems to be defending himself in ICAC hearings into dodgy dealings on the grounds that he is a total idiot.
Whatever the projection, his hand is a long way from the cue ball if going for yellow
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 8:47 pm
John Sidoti, former NSW Sports Minister, seems to be defending himself in ICAC hearings into dodgy dealings on the grounds that he is a total idiot.
______________________________
Its never been a disqualification for a successful career in politics.
I’d suspect the forces of near darkness will turn on Albo if there a few more polls like this.
Still kissing the outstretched ring of the Murdochs is the smart play for Albo.
Bert, I have a child a little like the one in that Twitter link. Only she doesn’t take it well when laughed at like the mum does in the video. My one has been known to remove herself from the laughter, find a quiet place and make neat, small cuts in the ‘good’ towels.
Another wasted saga of Australian governments going to war with their own communities for years on behalf of corporate interests
They shouldn’t get any $ let alone $200 million, but the end of Shenhua coal mine before it was even started, can’t come soon enough
Why are the NSW Nats so coy about a win for farmers and the indigenous people of the Liverpool plains?
Just as they’re talking up the future of coal in the Hunter?
Shenhua set to walk away from Watermark coal mine with taxpayer payout
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/shenhua-set-to-walk-away-from-watermark-coal-mine-with-taxpayer-payout-20210419-p57khw.html
The Berejiklian government plans to buy out the remaining licence for a proposed coal mine planned for rich farmland on the Liverpool Plains, ending a 13-year-long saga that pitched miners against farmers.
While the government is publicly stating that a mining lease for the Shenhua Watermark open-cut mine remains under assessment, multiple sources have told the Herald that a deal has been struck that would allow the Chinese energy company to walk away from the project.
—
However, one of the sources told the Herald it had become clear for some time Shenhua was willing to give up the project after its own management changed and its priorities shifted.
Another of the sources said he had been told this month by Mr Barilaro that “money was in the budget to do it”.
The source said that revealing the deal now would be awkward for the government because it would signal it is planning to protect farmland in the Liverpool Plains while saying “coal mining should expand indefinitely in the Upper Hunter”.
—
“We’ve been predicting this for a long time,” Mr Pursehouse said. Still, “there’s been a lot of heartache”, and locals had spent more than $1 million to fight the mine. Concerns include damage to aquifers in the key farming region particularly if the mine were to expand in the future to reach better quality coal some 600 metres below the surface.
“There’ll be one hell of a party when it’s over,” he said. “The whole farming community was against it.”
BH
Good to hear you got through with no problems. Those TIAs are a damn nuisance. Ken had them frequently but he got so used to them he didn’t even report them to the doc (he was on medication of course).
Morrison’s main concern isn’t what is the easy shot or the tracking for the next shot but how the F he can get out of this situation without his gut busting out of his shirt or getting in the way as he leans over the table. With those concerns it is any shot will do, no matter the difficult angle nor how far his hand is away from the cue ball.
‘which is run by Jim Reed, who once worked for Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor’
well there is you’re problem.
Yeah given ScoMo’s porkiness heart health would have to be an issue.
Still he looks like the picture of health compared to Barnaby Joyce or one K.Rudd.
Lizzie
It’s good so many Bludgers can let you know they’ve been OK.
Bad luck for davidwh that he landed all the symptoms, albeit mild.
Thnks for that re Ken and TIAs. I suspect OH has had more. Is it part of COPD or just an added extra?
Must admit I’m learning to handle it all a little better. Being stressed about it all is too hard so we find things to laugh about. 63 years together last week is one of life’s bonuses. We know what makes us laugh.
https://www.theage.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/morrissey-takes-aim-at-hatred-shown-towards-him-in-new-simpsons-episode-20210420-p57kro.html
poor didums
Steve777says:
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 at 8:47 pm
“John Sidoti, former NSW Sports Minister, seems to be defending himself in ICAC hearings into dodgy dealings on the grounds that he is a total idiot.”
Yes, it does sound stupid but most Australians don’t understand Trust Law. Most of them have no idea who owns Superannuation funds or the responsibilities of the owners of the funds.
BH
Ken’s TIAs were an after effect of his stroke but his COPD was unfortunately a separate illness. I have a photo of him during a walk in a Park with his brother when he had a ‘cold arm’ but he’s standing looking quite unconcerned.
Pity some wag didn’t provide a few exploding billiard balls for SfM’s photo shoot.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/once-upon-time-exploding-billiard-balls-were-everyday-thing-180962751/
Kevin Rudd declines to participate in a Sky News
hatchet jobdocumentary on himself and Malcolm:https://twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/1360469335811129344
Steve777 @ #99 Tuesday, April 20th, 2021 – 7:46 pm
That’s from February 2020.