Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.
The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).
There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.
Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.
Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).
Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.
Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.
Hmm, Steve’n’Seagulls _and_ YouTube are apparently verboten. (It’s not Genesis…)
Re: their cover of Thunderstruck:
KK is a street ahead of any other politician in Canberra.
BB –
I remember you “cursing” whoever posted Thunderstruck on PB one night… You’re welcome. 🙂
I didn’t think “Grainsville” was as good as their first two albums, but “Another Miracle” might be okay based on the track listing.
There I was thinking, ‘oh, it looks like the rain might be starting to clear at last!’
… Rain starts bucketing down again. Be careful what you wish for. 😉
Still on Gorton, although at first a strong supporter, Fraser, in his resignation speech said the former is “not fit to hold the great office of Prime Minister”, presumably on the basis of the Gotto affair. And then came the highly embarrassing sleazy hotel incident:
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/malcolm-fraser-and-the-mystery-of-how-he-lost-his-trousers-and-his-dignity-in-a-seedy-american-hotel/news-story/c122c798f7927fb6f994d2687e717461
Yeah. Fraser got dacked.
For Bushfire. You’re not alone.
This from my big brother who celebrated his 89th birthday on St. Patrick’s Day. He and four of his five daughters and their families are neighbours of yours, Wallis Lake-speaking. They’re mostly in Tuncurry and environs.
“All this rain and serious flooding so reminds me of February 1955 when Elizabeth and I and family came to Forster from Sydney for 3 weeks holiday and rented a cottage in Hadley Street and it rained every day and I mean every day. That rain and flooding washed away the city of Maitland, with many deaths. There was an inland sea of water in the Hunter the size of England and Wales. No bridge then, a car ferry across the lake between Tuncurry and Forster.”
What a leader. Goes missing every time the country needs him.
Close Observer @ #1848 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 11:09 am
You’re not exactly practicing what you preach there, Close Observer. I don’t really appreciate having my nom bastardised like that by you, nor being called an ‘ignoramus’ simply because I happen to disagree with you, OR being told by you to apologise. I gather you are a male, so way to go telling a woman what to do and what she can or can’t say. Hypocrite.
‘[The hotel was an establishment popular with prostitutes and drug dealers. Though it was rumoured at the time that the former Prime Minister had been with a prostitute, his wife stated that Fraser had no recollection of the events and that she believes it more likely that he was the victim of a practical joke by his fellow delegates.’]
I think Tamie was being a bit naive. In any event, the patrician Fraser’s popularity most likely increased markedly following the Memphis incident, though by then he’d been out of office for 9 years.
This is the BOM laying out very clearly in a video exactly what the prognosis is for the NSW state over the next few days:
https://twitter.com/i/events/1372789947367706635
Looks like the West of the state will get a dumping on Tuesday as a front from the tropics comes in from the NW.
I was of the understanding that Fraser’s attack on Gorton was primarily due to the the latter’s apparent interference with Fraser’s then-ministerial portfolio of defence, as well as Gorton’s general tendency towards disregarding the opinions of caucus and the ministry. At the time, Fraser believed (seemingly with some justification) that top figures in the army were undermining a number of reforms he was attempting to bring in, and that Gorton had taken their side without communicating properly to his minister. There’s also an alternative interpretation of events that Fraser had deliberately made a mountain out of a molehill to further his own future ministerial and leadership ambitions.
Either way, Ainsley Gotto seems to have had little to do with that episode, though there definitely was more than a bit of concern within Liberal Party ranks about Gorton’s reliance on her.
As for Fraser’s, er, incident in Memphis, the “prank” excuse does strike me as pretty thin, though one could argue that a former Prime Minister turned private citizen (allegedly) seeking the services of a hooker is not really comparable to a serving Prime Minister allowing their judgement to be affected by becoming overly attached to a staffer they were (allegedly) sleeping with.
…from Redbridge, survey of 1000 Melburnians, 56% of them former Liberal voters…
And Mary, Mother of God.
…Samaras now saying the graph above only represents former Lib voters.
The trouble with Gorton was that as well as not being able to hold his liquor hw also couldn’t keep his dick in his pants.
An unlikely tag team of our own Edward St John and Bertie James, the Member for Hunter and Soviet Spy, brought him down with tales of inappropriate behaviour with Lisa Minelli and Geraldine Willisee.
http://jfk.hood.edu/Collection/Weisberg%20Subject%20Index%20Files/C%20Disk/CIA%20Australia/Item%2002.pdf
I doubt if Morrison would be that much into the Blessed Virgin; different and mutually repulsive forms of Christianity
Also, I don’t think it’s correct to say Gotto had much to do with the moves against Gorton, either. His erratic behaviour (particularly during the ’69 election campaign), his “my way or the highway” leadership style, his increasingly moderate/progressive ideological leanings, Billy McMahon’s whiteanting, and the continued ascendency of Labor under Whitlam all played a far bigger role.
I did say ‘presumably’. There were, of course, other issues associated with Gorton’s resignation. But bearing in mind that it’s difficult to eke out evidence in matters allegedly apropos of the flesh, and taking into account the mores of the time – Gotto was 21; Fraser, 58 – the relationship did raise more than a few Tory eyebrows at the time. I’ll settle for a contributing factor.
OC:
The phrase “Gorton flu” became a popular euphemism for a hangover among Canberra circles at the time, thanks to the PM’s tendency to call in sick with “a touch of the flu” whenever he’d had a big night.
Labor also had a similar problem to Gorton’s: Cairns and Morosi. Canberra can be a lonely place.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/21/nsw-flooding-people-flee-their-homes-overnight-as-extreme-rain-wreaks-havoc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
Watch closely for Crooked Gladys and SfM to exploit the state of emergency for their mates and donors.
United States COVID 19 data :
554,871 total deaths
Today – 55,908 new cases …………………… 792 new deaths
Zoomster:
I’d be fascinated to understand the reasoning of that 10% who are now “much more likely” to vote for the Libs!
[‘NSW weather live updates: Natural disaster declared; Warning of ‘worst to come’ for flood-hit regions…’]
And it’s not much better in SE Queensland:
https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-breaking-news-live-weather-forecast-sydney-nsw-flood-evacuations-rain-mid-north-coast/b64d541e-4865-4f46-a660-1c663aeb7849?ref=BP_RSS_ninenews_0_flooding-declared-natural-disaster_210321
Asha Leu
Probably the same group who drive their cars into floodwaters.
So it’s going to take a threat of crossing the floor from colleagues for the transactional SfM to establish a RC into war veteran suicides.
What a cold-hearted prick he is.
Hopefully the RC can show Australians just how f’d up these veterans’ minds are after the brain conditioning from brass and Govt and the inhumane acts they’re forced to carry out..
Re Zoomster @12:27.
I suppose that the main impact of this and of any other scandal would be its effect on swinging voters in marginal seats.
It might also be a bit difficult to answer. Given that there is no chance that I will never ever vote Liberal after the experience of Howard/Abbott/Morrison, my correct answer would be “No change”. It simply solidifies my position. Further, if the scandal has changed any of my neighbour’s minds, unless its lots and lots of them, North Sydney will still reteurn Trent Zimmerman or whoever else the Liberals might put up for the seat.
The Toorak Toff @ #2212 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 11:44 am
Albeit a tad overly self-conscious at times….and histrionic.
And back in the day I’d say hot as all get out.
But I wouldn’t say that now.
At best she reminds me of my brother.
Rex Douglas @ #2235 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 12:49 pm
Watch closely for NSW to give Crooked G. the big thumbs up.
KayJay mon ami
I’ve mislaid my copy of Posting Images to Blogs for Dummies. Apologize for asking again.
I’ve posted the image to PostImage, but how do I then get it to be attached to my Post.
Dutton the latest to be caught out stealing money from taxpayers.
Should be a sacking offence for a front bencher.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/21/peter-dutton-charged-taxpayers-465-for-flight-on-day-he-was-special-guest-at-private-event
Asha Leusays:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 12:53 pm
“I’d be fascinated to understand the reasoning of that 10% who are now “much more likely” to vote for the Libs!”
………..
They’re the ones most acutely attuned to the dog whistle.
Rex Douglas @ #2245 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 1:06 pm
‘Should be a sacking offence for a front bencher.’
Come come dear fellow, what era are living in?
beguiledagainsays: Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 1:05 pm
KayJay mon ami
I’ve mislaid my copy of Posting Images to Blogs for Dummies. Apologize for asking again.
I’ve posted the image to PostImage, but how do I then get it to be attached to my Post.
***************************************
Go to drop down menu – choose Direct Link – copy and then paste it into your post box….
Arthur @ #2202 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 11:25 am
Scotty isn’t scared of anything.
Asha Leusays:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 12:53 pm
“I’d be fascinated to understand the reasoning of that 10% who are now “much more likely” to vote for the Libs!”
———————————
I’d speculate that they are the rusted ons, who believe the Libs can do no wrong, no matter what. (I have heard it said that they have their ALP counterparts)
I think this type of response means – “we support everything that Morrison, Porter et al have done and don’t accept for a moment any implication there is anything wrong with it…so there! We’re even more rusted on than where we were yesterday, so go stick that in your pipe and smoke it.”
Discussion of this style of poll response came up on the 538 politics podcast recently: there’s a term for it that I can’t 100% recall – maybe “motivated responding”?
Not sure about the ins and the outs of link below. But interesting.
Meanwhile, desertification in Australia is in full swing.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/20/our-biggest-challenge-lack-of-imagination-the-scientists-turning-the-desert-green
mundosays:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 1:12 pm
“Scotty isn’t scared of anything.”
……….
He’s scared of a righteously angry gathering of women demanding justice.
He’s scared of a lone, righteously angry pregnant woman in a bushfire disaster zone demanding help.
He’s scared of everything.
A coward.
I note from some of the coverage this morning that emergency services are often volunteers/ unpaid, part-time etc.
Wouldn’t it make sense to replace full-time/ paid pollyTICs, especially since they don’t seem to do policy, competency or services delivery, given they also get paid by lobbyists/ donors/ campaigns?
phoenixRED @ #2239 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 1:11 pm
Just so.
Mundo
KK reminds me of my brother
She reminds me of Jane Jetson
God help Labor if the NSW Right seriously sees her as PM material
mundo @ #1902 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 1:12 pm
It’s not that Morrison isn’t scared, that’s being far too kind to him. It is the fact that he is arrogant and surrounded by enablers. He was certainly afraid of a situation last Monday that he couldn’t control.
Good Afternoon.
I hope everyone is safe and well and not hit too hard financially from the flooding.
Cat
The reason for my optimism of Labor winning the next election.
I thought Labor had a good chance when Frydenberg brought down the budget and cemented the scrapping of JobKeeper.
Since then things have got worse in the culture war space for the LNP.
Then at the end of the week we got the news about Murdoch’s Sky losing free to air access. That means a shift from Murdoch Trump like extremism to Treasurer Costello style right wing coverage. That’s going to shift the way voters think.
That’s in Tasmania and Queensland. So more Jacqui Lambie less Craig Kelly political thinking being told to voters.
That shift to the left means the centre shifts left too.
Add that to the LNP totally being destroyed in the culture war with woman. It reminds me of Howard having Indigenous people turning their back. Add in the Biden effect stopping Chris Uhlmann and others being conspiracy theorist on climate dominating at Nine and other outlets.
That’s why I am optimistic for Labor. I can see Labor being able to get their message out and heard.
“I’d be fascinated to understand the reasoning of that 10% who are now “much more likely” to vote for the Libs!”
It will be the “RUle of Law” brigade. Or men who are worried that they will get hit with something from a woman or girl they interacted with decades ago, and don’t want to admit to themselves they may well have not done the right thing at the time.
Watched KK on Insiders. Very impressive she is. 🙂
Not being from NSW, I do not understand the prejudice towards KK. She seems to me to be an excellent attack dog.
When it stops being punished at the ballot box.