Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.
The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).
There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.
Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.
Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).
Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.
Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.
imacca
The LNP tried that tactic with the Marriage Equality survey.
Then in 2019 they added that visceral fear of loss of identity to coal jobs with their Labor is killing Adani and Tim Wilson’s negative gearing lies.
This election I think the real economic loss added to the vaccine rollout clusterfuck is going to make that marketing ring hollow and we will see the Marriage Equality result not the 2019 result prevail.
An example of what is happening. One of his dogs is 10 years old and nearly didn’t make the distance.
NSW all out for 32 in the Sheffield Shield game in Tassie. Only 300 behind. Jackson Bird took 7/18.
Re KK, we had her as the local member for a while. Did and said all the right things – mostly – but sometimes went missing when confronted with some problems she didn’t want to be involved with.
No longer lives in the area , which was Eastlakes, I believe.
“NSW all out for 32 in the Sheffield Shield game in Tassie. Only 300 behind. Jackson Bird took 7/18.”
The Sheffield Shield used to be a compelling competition once. Before big money ruined cricket. Most players were hardened and of test quality. Nowadays, it is barely above grade cricket level, if it is at all. Batsmen are either blasted out by a 145kph ball that inadvertantly stays on course or out trying to hit the ball out of the ground. Stumpings are a thing of the past.
Cricket’s downfall is quite sad. You used to go into a pub or club and there would always be twenty or thirty people watching. Now, they hardly even show it. It’s all racing, football or UFC (the real tragedy).
Roy
They are human and not perfect. Labor has some truly formidable woman political warriors that regularly destroy the LNP narrative.
That includes KK.
Labor should make more use of them.
eg. I think it would have been excellent if Wong Keneally or Plibersek had treasury in their portfolio. There are others but they spring immediately to mind as cut through politicians
This would have given a marketing contrast with blokey LNP culture .
An advantage as we have seen for Palasczcuk
Edit. In other words have Labor’s quotas represented in media appearances too. The LNP cannot compete.
lizzie @ #1912 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 1:42 pm
It’s only Oakeshott Country with his same old ‘Jane Jetson’ criticism interlaced with his bigoted perception of her from her time as NSW Premier. Which is a function of his own embittered perception of Labor that he has not been able to move on from. The Liberals in NSW can be guilty of more corruption than Eddie Obeid could shake a stick at but he will just ignore that and return again and again to puerile criticism of Labor. What can you do? Don’t take it seriously, that’s for sure.
Talking of attack dogs, has Buce been around since the WA election?
Mavis says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 11:57 am
Still on Gorton, although at first a strong supporter, Fraser, in his resignation speech said the former is “not fit to hold the great office of Prime Minister”, presumably on the basis of the Gotto affair. And then came the highly embarrassing sleazy hotel incident:
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/malcolm-fraser-and-the-mystery-of-how-he-lost-his-trousers-and-his-dignity-in-a-seedy-american-hotel/news-story/c122c798f7927fb6f994d2687e717461
————————————————————————
As you can see, Fraser’s pants were a little tight, but well and truly on when we visited Nareen in 1976.
To protect my anonymity, all I will say is that, Andrew Peacock notwithstanding, I’m the best-looking bloke in the picture.
UFC (the real tragedy).
Abso-bleedin-lutely.
Men AND Women punching and kicking the absolute crap out of each other. That’s not sport, it’s ritualised carnage.
Did Morrison turn up to support Gladys the Unready and comfort the people of western Sydney?
No. Was he afraid of security concerns? Or does he not work weekends?
Granny Anny @ #1921 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 2:06 pm
Only on the WA thread, iirc.
How time flies! The floods are a ‘1 in 100 year event’, according to NSW Premier, Gladys Berejiklian. Again. 🙄
BK @ #2303 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 1:53 pm
CA integrity unit should be checking the betting sheets
@RBReich tweeted
So let me get this straight: there are conservatives who want you to believe Black Lives Matter is a terrorist organization, but the murder of 6 Asian women isn’t domestic terrorism?
When Black Americans protest for their rights, they’re called thugs and criminals.
When a white man murders 8 people, he’s having a “bad day.”
Morrison’s options for Federal assistance to flooded areas of NSW:
1. Financial assistance for residents to abandon their houses and move to a regional area.
2. Ask Mark McGowan to take over.
3. Extend Jobkeeper for all residents of the electorates of Cook and Hughes.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a dire forecast for the Hawkesbury and Nepean areas, saying the flooding is forecast to be the worst seen since in 60 years.
Justin Robertson, the BOM flood operations manager said today the river levels at Penrith are expected to reach levels not seen since the floods in 1961.
“Last night we experienced very heavy rainfall, especially in the area around Penrith, we had (Warragamba) Dam commencing to spill yesterday afternoon, and we also had floodwaters coming down the upper appeared river system,” Mr Robertson said.
“At Penrith we are expecting river levels at Penrith to be levels near the 1961 flood.
“To give you some context, that is bigger than the February 2020 flood.
“It is bigger than the 1988 flood. It is bigger than the 1990 flood, and it is bigger than the 1964 flood.
“It is one of the biggest floods we are likely to see for a very long time.”
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/australia-weather-live-updates-nsw-qld-prepare-for-weekend-of-dangerous-storms/live-coverage/264d43588c549ab53802f7a93ca00d8a
beguiledagain says:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 2:10 pm
…
To protect my anonymity, all I will say is that, Andrew Peacock notwithstanding, I’m the best-looking bloke in the picture.
Time being what is is, you have to be the youngest in the picture also.
Floods. One of the negatives of owning a riverfront property. 🙂
The new Vic shadow minister for energy & renewables Brad Rowswell declares the coal vs renewables debate is dead.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-21/victorian-opposition-unveils-new-frontbench-after-failed-spill/100019532
Floods of biblical proportions. Maybe Sydneysiders could build an ark.
Steve Davis
I don’t remember exactly when Kevin Rudd grabbed a shovel and went on the frontline to help flood victims. I do think that memory is a big contrast to Morrison.
Will Morrison say I don’t hold a shovel mate?
Guytaur
Do bears shit in the woods?
‘The ABC understands there is now a push to dump the nine MPs who supported the spill. They would be told not to re-contest their seats at next year’s election.’
Wow, democracy Liberal style.
guytaur @ #2322 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 2:26 pm
How good was Rudd.
One minute he’s on the frontline with a shovel in front of the camera’s – nek minnit he’s tearing down Gillard for Abbott to take over.
Admire the man…
Perhaps SfM could get Bunnings helping with Ark kits.
For the fires we have the image of Morrison forcing a couple of handshakes.
For the woman protest, being informed by him, it is great to live in a country where you are not shot.
We are still waiting for the defining moment for covid I think. At the moment it is overselling and under performing.
How oh how is he going to stuff up his response to the floods?
Granny Anny
“He who must not be named”.
Rex
Rudd and Gillard were excellent leaders.
Both had faults. Both helped defeat Labor. However let’s be crystal clear.
Leadership was a poison chalice for Labor only
If we lived in a fair world Morrison’s toppling Turnbull would have seen Mr Shorten win against Morrison.
I am not excusing the media role in destroying climate policy in this country. It’s why I am 100% on board Rudd’s Murdoch is a cancer on democracy slogan.
That was Murdoch’s practice run for establishing Trump as President
steve davis @ #2321 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 2:24 pm
Gladys declares that only voters in marginal seats get a seat on the ark.
beguiledagain:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 2:10 pm
[‘To protect my anonymity, all I will say is that, Andrew Peacock notwithstanding, I’m the best-looking bloke in the picture.’]
Not to put you on the spot, but from memory you’re in your 70s and given this photo was taken 45 years ago, I’m guessing you’re the second most handsome,
the guy with the glasses. And I note Mal had a wee problem with his fly even in those days. I think he may’ve been an exhibitionist. Anyway, great pic.
I didn’t watch Insiders but I can confidently confirm that absolutely nothing will change as a consequence of todays episode.
Cat
“The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a dire forecast for the Hawkesbury and Nepean areas, saying the flooding is forecast to be the worst seen since in 60 years.”
Gladys said it was the worst flood in 100 years but perhaps she was referring to her response. You can’t blame a leader for not being prepared for an event people have warned about for years.
Bandt has an important message…
Decent pay for elected officials is actually an incredible important feature in a functioning democracy, opening up the parliament to those who are not independently wealthy. There’s no way an outfit like the Labor Party would have ever been able to make any progress in Australia if it was not for the introduction of payment for MPs in the late 1800.
But I agree that the very existence and neccesity of volunteer firefighters and the like is a serious indictment of how poorly funded such departments are. A system similar to what we have with the army reserve would be much fairer, in my opinion.
I imagine he must have met LBJ a few times during his time as Army Minister. Perhaps Jumbo was a bad influence on him?
Malcolm won’t have his legacy whitewashed by the likes of Maiden…
A deep low extending from Cleveland to the Tweed appears to be heading out to sea, after drenching the Goldie, and surrounds. In fact it has rained most of the year up here.
Asha Leu:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 2:51 pm
[‘I imagine he must have met LBJ a few times during his time as Army Minister. Perhaps Jumbo was a bad influence on him?’]
Quite possibly. In the 4th series of “The Crown” there’s a raunchy scene between Margaret & LBJ,
definitely worth a look, and moreover when the Queen instructs Wilson to repeat the joke Margaret told the assorted WH guests, it’s the best scene in the series.
beguiledagain:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 2:10 pm
[‘To protect my anonymity, all I will say is that, Andrew Peacock notwithstanding, I’m the best-looking bloke in the picture.’]
Not to put you on the spot, but from memory you’re in your 70s and given this photo was taken 45 years ago, I’m guessing you’re the second most handsome,
the guy with the glasses. And I note Mal had a wee problem with his fly even in those days. I think he may’ve been an exhibitionist. Anyway, great pic.
——————————————————————-
Flattery will get you everywhere.
You’re out by a decade in the age guess.
And without confirming or denying your verdict, you haven’t identified the winner in the male pulchritude stakes.
I hope you aren’t voting for Peacock or Mal.
@FionaPattenMLC tweets
totally agree! @samanthamaiden Let’s swap out the federal funding for chaplaincy programs and fund consent and respectful relationship education @InsidersABC #auspol #insiders
Sydney/NSW just hit the trifecta in just over 12 months. Bushfires. Plagues of Covid and Mice. Now Biblical Floods.
zoomster @ #1937 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 2:32 pm
And that’s only at State level.
Though it’s a sure sign that the Victorian State Liberal Opposition is rattled and doesn’t expect to win the next Victorian State election against Dan Andrews. If they thought they were a chance of winning they’d suck up the challenge and count on the sophomore effect from those 9 MPs getting them some seats to hopefully get them over the line.
Rex
I think Rudd would have gone for the Gillard government carbon price ignoring the LNP except for this reality. Reme Remembering the Gillard position was a compromise with conservative regional politicians and union members. Also remembering Rudd has admitted the fear of Murdoch as Prime Minister
@MrKRudd tweets
On green economic recovery from the COVID recession, Australia’s investment ranks dead last out of 50 countries in this UN Environment Program report.
A prize for anybody who can find this prominently reported in the climate-change denying Murdoch media.
unep.org/resources/publ…
I knew Sam Maiden was wrong about the Bonk Ban.
Just watched Australian Story with Magda and the eggboy. Down to earth and practical, but Magda also explains how reaction to trauma is passed down through generations. I was thinking that there must be many, many migrants now in Australia, or children of migrants, who still need support. No wonder there is such a need for compassion, which we will never receive from LNP government. Morrison mouths sympathy but doesn’t understand.
Magda also extols the healing effect of the creative arts – an area which has suffered from the pandemic and from which Morrison has withdrawn almost all support unless it’s “profitable”.
beguiledagain:
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 3:03 pm
With Mal, Andrew and the guy with glasses out of contention, the field narrows to three. I very much doubt you’re the guy in the black jacket or the one to the right of Mal. It’s okay, your secret’s safe with me.
Asha Leu @ #2272 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 12:39 pm
About 1989 I heard Mungo McCallum talking about John Grey Gorton on the ABC PM program.
McCallum was ‘retiring’ from the CPG and told the yarn about Gorton getting on the grog at lunch in Canberra, travelling to Melbourne for a function, getting on the grog on the flight, more grog at the function, more grog after the function and yet more grog on the aircraft to go back to Canberra.
Lots of grog.
Gorton then disgraced himself by vomiting over himself, his seat etc etc.
When the RAAF steward approached to ‘assist’ he reportedly said to them, “that they must be surprised that an old fighter pilot such as himself would get air sick.”
The reply was, “Yes Mr Gorton – particularly as we haven’t take off yet.”
There’s probably something called the ‘Barnaby Bender’ too. 😐
Contentious Hunt for Covid’s Origin Points to China Animal Trade
Live animals susceptible to coronavirus infection were present at the Huanan food market in downtown Wuhan, the city where the first major Covid-19 outbreak was detected. It’s possible they acted as conduits for the virus, carrying it from bats — likely the primary source — to humans, says Peter Daszak, a zoologist who was part of the joint research effort, which saw international experts visit Wuhan earlier this year after months of stonewalling by the Chinese government.
“The main conclusion from this stage of the work — and it’s not over yet of course — is that the exact same pathway by which SARS emerged was alive and well for the emergence of Covid,” said Daszak, who is also president of EcoHealth Alliance, a New York-based nonprofit that works to prevent viral outbreaks around the world.
The scientists’ report, slated for release this week after delays due to political wrangling, is likely to be far from conclusive. More studies are planned.
It’s possible the virus was introduced through an infected animal that was sold at the Huanan market or somewhere else in Wuhan, said Dominic Dwyer, a microbiologist in Sydney who was part of the WHO-convened team that traveled to the Chinese city in February.
Still, questions remain about the market’s ultimate role.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-20/contentious-hunt-for-covid-s-origin-points-to-china-animal-trade?srnd=premium-asia