Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls

A new federal poll from Roy Morgan records a narrower Labor lead than Newspoll, but an apparently wider gender gap.

Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.

The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).

There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.

Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.

Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).

Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.

Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,519 comments on “Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls”

Comments Page 51 of 51
1 50 51
  1. If its PVO I can only assume that tomorrow’s “revelations” will be a foil to distract from his BFF Porter.

    And we can confidently precut what will happen based on past performance.

    If its Labor man behaving badly he will immediately lose his preselection.

    If its a Greens man bahaving badly it will be referred to a closed shop “truth and justice” commission until about two years later Jenny Leong denounces him under parliamentary privelege and he quits the party in a fit of pique.

    If its a Liberal man behaving as expected it’ll be “rule of law” until the end of time.

  2. Thanks BB,

    I was wondering how wide the channel was now? Is the water still pouring through the channel?

    Taz, yes, it will be running hot, due to the rain. In fact late last night the level went up for half an hour or so, the downpour was so heavy. Alas, our gravel driveway also got washed away at the same time (again!).

    The “natural level” is somewhere near 350mm I think. When I say “350mm”, that’s just the level at the measuring station. It’s both deeper and shallower in other areas of the lake.

    At a nominal “350mm” you can easily wade across the lake to the beach in about 30min. It’s about 1.3km (slow going due to the effort of wading). Normally a 7km drive, plus a 300 metre boardwalk through the rainforest. At this lower stage the lake becomes somewhat tidal. But when the first big storm comes along, it’s likely to seal up again.

    I’ve been to beaches all over the world, tropical, Meditterranean and cold climate, but ours is one of the loveliest I’ve ever seen, mainly I think because you have to know it’s there first, and even then some effort is required to get there. The most magical times of year are November and February-April – off-season, still beautifully warm, but deserted and exquisitely clean, if not pristine. The locals know what a treasure it is.

    It’s not unusual to have the whole 2.5km long beach to yourself, a dog, and maybe a fisherman or two even at lunchtime during these periods. Magic.

  3. Walking over the unemployed looking for a wedge was pretty low. How low can we expect the Greens to go as they look for a Liberal/Green wedge. Will the Greens be rewarded with Liberal preferences in their target seats?

    Reading the article the Greens message is going to be the same, you need the Greens to screw Labor.

  4. Adam Bandt says “to Labor voters if you want to kick the Liberals out a bit of blah, blah, blah, then vote Green”.

    How is that suppose to work? If you are a Labor voter, you stay a Labor voter. Adam should be appealing to Liberal voters not the bloody Labor ones. FMD!

  5. Kirky says:
    Monday, March 22, 2021 at 6:51 am

    Adam Bandt says “to Labor voters if you want to kick the Liberals out vote Green”.

    How is that suppose to work? If you are a Labor voter, you stay a Labor voter. Adam should be appealing to Liberal voters not the bloody Labor ones. FMD!

    The article just shows how hollow the Greens have become, policy discussion is limited to faster on climate change and tax the rich. Nothing on how we are going to transition our economy, reskill our people, or the new industries that need to be built.

    And then on and on, building the Liberal’s case, don’t vote for Labor because the Greens will have the balance of power and screw them over. What a sad little party.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Alexandra Smith tells us that NSW Emergency Services Minister David Elliott has blamed his cabinet colleague, Water Minister Melinda Pavey, for failing to mitigate Warragamba Dam spilling as western Sydney faces evacuations.
    The inundation of homes and businesses in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley of western Sydney is tragic for the people affected, but it is no surprise, writes Professor Jamie Pittock.
    Josh Butler tells us that the embattled federal government’s stumbling responses to mounting sexual assault scandals will face further intense scrutiny this week, with ministers, bureaucrats and police to be grilled in Parliament House. It could be an entertaining week.
    The SMH editorial urges schools and parents to get better at educating young men about consent.
    Sean Kelly sees a moment for Morrison to actually DO something.
    Attempts to form cross-party collaborations of women to lift female representation in our parliaments have not worked, and will not work, argues Meredith Burgmann.
    David Crowe writes that taxpayers are funding millions of dollars in contracts for companies that flout laws meant to reveal action on sexual harassment and pay equity, sparking Labor demands for federal intervention to force compliance.
    AstraZeneca can be made in Australia – but it’s not all good news, warn Samantha Dick and Josh Butler.
    Adam Morton reports that the Minerals Council of Australia has weighed into a European commission climate policy debate, urging it to back fossil fuels with carbon capture use and storage and nuclear power on a list of environmentally friendly developments.
    There are up to 100,000 undocumented workers doing farm work in Australia, many of whom are afraid to access medical treatments, including COVID vaccines, reports Nick Bonyhady.
    Donna Ward trumpets that ghosting and gaslighting from the PM down won’t stop women shattering the silence.
    “Stop asking: what if it happened to our daughters? It’s time to ask: what if it was our sons who did it?”, asks Jacqui Maley.
    Men need to step up and call out racism and abuse, like that recently perpetrated by a mob of Kalamunda high school students, writes Cynthia Fenton.,14913
    The Australian’s Rosie Lewis reports that an ex-housemate of the former Liberal staffer accused of raping his then colleague Brittany Higgins in Parliament House says the man sexually harassed her while they were housemates together.
    The five key risks for house price concerns watched by the prudential regulator are all starting to rise according to investment advisor Jarden, but restrictions on lending are more likely to target incomes and debt rather than the values of the property, writes Matthew Cranston.
    Jennifer Duke is concerned that superannuation might be facing the same fate as the goose that laid the golden eggs.
    The AFR explains how Sanjeev Gupta lived large on the back of rickety financing.
    Mark McGowan’s landslide election win is proof of a broad community sentiment that “the Eastern States” have little to offer or teach a contented WA, says Jennifer Hewett.
    The spy agency’s decision to stop referring to “Islamic extremism” and “right-wing extremism” will not help to solve these problems, opines the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Anthony Bergin. It’s difficult to disagree with him.
    In a thoughtful contribution, Amanda Vanstone has a look at modern journalism.
    The ABC will terminate its commercial agreements with several news websites, including industry superannuation fund-backed website, The New Daily, in a strategic shift that will focus on agreements with aggregation platforms like Facebook and Google.
    Nicholas Stuart absolutely lambasts the UK’s deluded view of itself as exemplified by its recently released Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.
    Mark Sweeny reports that consumers are facing price rises and shortages of products from TVs and mobile phones to cars and games consoles as a global shortage in semiconductors grows.
    Only a small fraction of buildings with flammable cladding have been fixed, and owners are feeling the strain, explain these contributors to The Conversation.
    While many leaders will be judged to have not done as badly as Trump, why did so many Western nations fail so badly in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, asks Paul Nuki who examines the UK’s failures.
    According the The Guardian, Donald Trump will soon use “his own platform” to return to social media, an adviser said on Sunday, months after the former president was banned from Twitter for inciting the US Capitol riot.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Matt Golding

    David Rowe

    Simon Bosch

    John Shakespeare

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Johannes Leak

    From the US

  7. Kirky @ #2506 Monday, March 22nd, 2021 – 6:51 am

    Adam Bandt says “to Labor voters if you want to kick the Liberals out a bit of blah, blah, blah, then vote Green”.

    How is that suppose to work? If you are a Labor voter, you stay a Labor voter. Adam should be appealing to Liberal voters not the bloody Labor ones. FMD!

    Adam must have learned his lessons well off his Liberal teachers.

    He appears to be recycling Richard Di natale’s lines as well:
    And then on and on, building the Liberal’s case, don’t vote for Labor because the Greens will have the balance of power and screw them over. What a sad little party.

    So in honour of the Black Wiggle I have come up with a name for Adam:

    The Green Garden Gnome


  8. Socrates:

    “ Isn’t it an indictment of the current political culture that when you first read that tweet and note the reference to “a” Canberra sex scandal that there are several plausible cases.”

    Its a disgrace. An indictment on the MSM and CPG. If you have a story, publish it. The subject is too important to merely titillate, chum for click bait. Everybody deserves better than this.

  9. Good Morning.

    I see the Labor majority thinks it’s fun to lie about the Greens. Yes that’s the correct word. That’s very Trump like. Have fun turning this country into a fascist state as a consequence.

    We have seen the results in the US.

    This is not hyperbole because the simple reality is that facts count.
    The Greens were fighting for the unemployed. Directly against the LNP attack on them. Edit: No matter what you think about the effectiveness. Stunts can send a message even if Labor is not willing to participate

    Also remember the Greens can promote themselves at Labor’s expense and still have preferences flow to Labor. You get liberal voters in a preferential system voting Green 1 to do a protest vote.

    That’s 10% or so of Greens preferences. With Labor just needing a two percent swing that can make a difference in Labors favour. Factually it doesn’t matter as a vote Green one with preferences virtually being a vote Labor 2 sees Labor elected.

    Stop boosting the LNP.

  10. Cat

    Don’t fall into BW’s nationalist rhetoric about China.
    We can condemn the Chinese dictatorship and US actions in Saudi Arabia.

    No matter what BW says Labor was right to condemn the illegal Iraq war.

    We have to be able to debate reality if we are to have a rational approach to China. Be like Biden. Embrace the Chinese on Climate policy condemn on human rights and be a part of the Quad making China angry as you talk about the human rights abuses.

  11. Talking about Biden someone in Labor should warn him about how not processing asylum seekers fast gave the LNP the ability to wedge Labor.

    That’s the danger for Biden with the stories about children being held at the border.

    He’s got the same Murdoch narrative to confront.

  12. Hi, I know it’s off topic, but can anyone tell me why comments are not on the Guardians new on parliament etc thank you in Advance

Comments Page 51 of 51
1 50 51

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *