Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.
The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).
There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.
Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.
Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).
Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.
Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.
2,519 comments on “Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls”
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 8:15 pm
Arthur @ #2049 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 8:09 pm
“So it’s gone backwards as the growers have become emboldened. The Coalition sure don’t hold them to account. And Labor haven’t been in government. And the people that count, the electorate, keep voting the Coalition back in. They prefer their lurks and perks and cheap fruit and veg is a part of that”
I worked on a whole bunch of farms, fruit, small crops, dairy and beef.
If we were paid cash, and if the farmer tried to fuck us it was known that we would shop him to the tax.
It was also a community thing. Just about everyone was an Australian citizen, and if someone tried to rip off the working children of local people, hell would be paid.
I’m still a bit gobsmacked by that episode.
zoomster @ #2057 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 8:28 pm
Yes, when I was desperate for my son to get a job, any job, I looked into him going fruit picking. He was Long term Unemployed and so he was qualified to get various subsidies from the government. No one was interested in taking him on despite all that. THAT’S how badly fruit pickers are paid.
It’s not taste. Their accents vary a lot. Sexy though? You’re kidding.
Arthur @ #2064 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 8:39 pm
Problem is, those investigations generally come up with very few convictions. They go into the labyrinth at tax and sure, some productive outcomes occur, but wage theft is a thing for a reason. And it’s becoming an epidemic in Australia.
Loved Grand Design tonight…quite an undertaking with Kiwi ingenuity showing through. Amazing teamwork and perseverance, and am impressed that their kids also played their part.
Just can’t see them living there in their old age.
I gave Grand designs a wide berth a couple of years ago when I realised it was just full of rich toffs moaning about the troubles they’ve had building their ‘dream home’. Not interested.
This is the pathetic contribution wrt the floods from our Prime Minister. He recorded a facebook message (of course):
“The New Zealand accent has been rated the sexiest in the world”
I think that’s due to the power of advertising..
This was the NZ version, sustainable building using volunteers and think the final cost was estimated to be $350,000.
Port Macquarie by drone
Without pissing in your pocket, I really admire your Labor credendials.
Old Mavis @ #2075 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 8:56 pm
Thanks, Mavis. It’s in the genes. My grandfather was an Organiser for the Seamans Union in 1929. We never give up the fight.
I saw that show. I feel a bit sorry for his kids.
Droning on somewhat!
The nation needs an announcement.
When I saw that headline I thought it had to be a piss take. April 1st at least 🙂
Quasar @ #2073 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 8:52 pm
Yes, yes, ‘Sustainable Building’ is a very noble pursuit but $350000 and they saved on labour costs by using volunteers!?! That sounds like some building anyway, despite all that.
I prefer to watch the shows about companies building housing for the homeless.
Cud Chewer @ #2077 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 8:59 pm
They obviously had no choice in the matter and the green credentials are somewhat tarnished by the fact they had no qualms about using child labour.
Only ever caught a couple of episodes of the original Grand Designs – there was a memorable one of a couple building an artists’ retreat in Puglia, Italy on a very small budget, turning their capable hands to various trades and doing much of the work themselves. They were modest, charming, practical, and the host didn’t think they’d pull it off … but they did.
The next episode I caught was a well-heeled British couple renovating a Swiss chalet, and that was the end of GD for this viewer.
Hubby built our house by himself (a few volunteers came around to help with the slab, a mate helped him put a huge tree trunk in place). Local timber (where possible) – we had a truck load of pine logs delivered and left them out in the weather for a couple of years, and had a fallen red gum sawn up for the timber for the stairs etc.
Structure is rammed earth, and he’s used lots of glass, which he double glazed where possible (again, taught himself).
Still a work in progress….been building it on and off since 1990, so we’re now renovating as well as finishing….
Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 8:44 pm
“Problem is, those investigations generally come up with very few convictions. They go into the labyrinth at tax and sure, some productive outcomes occur, but wage theft is a thing for a reason. And it’s becoming an epidemic in Australia.”
It was a reasonable way to make money if you had limited options, or for Australian kids to make summer holiday money.
I bought my first car with cash doing do.
Thank you. Very interesting.
“The Prime Minister Scott Morrison recorded a message for those suffering during the storms in NSW and for those who have jumped to the rescue.”
He should go jump off something tall.
Hugh Riminton on twitter:
There will be a significant new development on a Canberra sex scandal tomorrow.
Make of that what you will.
Have a look at this video of a guy in a kayak keeping a cow’s nose above the floodwaters so it can keep breathing until help arrives;
If you don’t have twitter it’s on this page:
Should have offered an egg.
Make of that what you will.’
That twanging you can hear is tightening scrotums.
That’s a worry. Cows are normally a tiny bit more buoyant than that.
I had to go rescue my own cows once, but it wasn’t quite that bad. Had to walk a kilometre up to my tits in water. They were on a refuge island. Once they saw me they figured it was safe to make the trek back and they followed me back. Mind you they were able to hop (hind legs found the ground).
Cud Chewer @ #2091 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 9:52 pm
I was thinking it might have been a milker with heavy udders that hadn’t been milked for a day or two.
boerwar @ #2090 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 9:49 pm
It could be a positive development for someone. Unlikely but you never know.
Its actually the amount of gas in their gut that gives them a bit of buoyancy but yeah.
Buoyancy is not the issue.
Cows can swim perfectly well.
That cow has four legs on the ground.
The problem is probably that it is has to hold its head at an unnatural angle to keep its nostrils above water level and that its neck muscles are running out of puff. Cow’s heads are very heavy.
Mind you, my cows followed me anywhere 🙂
Grand Designs is just Howard’s aspirational rubbish writ large.
They very really show anything that is small & humble or well designed.
How many times is it a retired couple building 5 bedrooms & 300m2 just so the kids have somewhere to stay when visiting once a year
The business model is to show the ridicules & in the UK version how it always goes wrong & over budget…
If the word on twitter can be believed, it’s the conservative scrotums that will be tightening.
Re the lady being annoyed by Morrison at the pub(from Twitter). Her own words:
1) If I was ever going to be a meme, I’m glad it was like this (not the meeting Scomo part, you can see how I feel about that).
2) 110% did not want to be there (obvs) and could not wait to get away
3) He was asking me about what beer I was drinking. Couldn’t get out of there fast enough!
This happened in April 2019 in Townsville. He knew as much about reading a room as he does now. A real ladykiller
“Hugh Riminton on twitter:
There will be a significant new development on a Canberra sex scandal tomorrow.
Make of that what you will.”
Christian’s ex wives are going to give a character reference? I note Hugh Riminton is on the project which broke the Brittany Higgins rape allegations…
Isn’t it an indictment of the current political culture that when you first read that tweet and note the reference to “a” Canberra sex scandal that there are several plausible cases.
Australia’s medical regulator has approved the domestic production of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, with the first batches expected to be released “in the next few days.”
In a statement, the Therapeutic Goods Administration said the approval was granted “earlier today” and that it was a “critical and very exciting milestone” in Australia’s response to the pandemic.
“Specific approval of Australian manufacturing by TGA was required to ensure that the locally-manufactured vaccine had exactly the same composition and performance as overseas-manufactured vaccine, was made to the same quality and is free of contaminants,” the TGA said in a statement.
It said the final step for the locally-manufactured vaccine was “batch release”, required for every batch of any vaccine supplied in Australia.
Hugh copped a bagging for the way it was worded Socrates.
I’m guessing the legal profession wasn’t far from his mind when composing it. He said he chose his words carefully.
Aqualung @ #2102 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 10:20 pm
So it could be a positive development too. Hugh Riminton is a very good friend of PvO.
The rumours swirling on Twitter for past couple of days suggest that PVO has been working the story that will be revealed tomorrow night.
Victoria @ #2104 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 10:24 pm
Good or bad news for the Coalition?
During a brief lull in proceedings, I can report we are at 580mm of rain since Wednesday night, driveway is wobbly, but low lying properties have been saved due to the lake being opened yesterday afternoon.
The lake level has fallen from 2.00 metres to 0.65metres: 1.35 metres.
With a 10 sq km surface area this means that 13.5 million cubic metres of water have gone out to sea in 32 hours. That’s also 13.5 million tonnes of water. Another way of looking at that is that, with 1,000 litres of water per cubic metre, the outflow is equal to 13.5 gigalitres of water… with more to come.
And just a couple of days ago it was all puffy clouds.
The lake opening channel is now around 150 metres wide (yesterday it was 2 metres).
Apparently it will be a further expose on the toxic culture in parliament and inappropriate behaviour. Supposedly video evidence that will not be shown but basically reported on.
It will be initially reported on channel 10 at 5 PM and thereafter expanded on the project.
And it is supposedly bad for the coalition
And a clue that has been given, is that it would rate on par as a top 3 scandal of the NRL variety.
I’m sure there will be further exposes of toxic behaviour in parliament.
The crucial issue is what steps are being taken to remedy the situation. As a start, do we know how any of Morrison’s 5(?) inquiries are progressing?
Good grief that is a lot of water!
23 inches in the old scale. Nearly 2 feet.
I was wondering how wide the channel was now? Is the water still pouring through the channel?