Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls

A new federal poll from Roy Morgan records a narrower Labor lead than Newspoll, but an apparently wider gender gap.

Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.

The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).

There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.

Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.

Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).

Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.

Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,519 comments on “Roy Morgan and Essential Research polls”

Comments Page 49 of 51
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  3. The Chaser
    @chaser

    Public starting to worry that leaders who need apps and empathy coaches to tell right from wrong might not be the best people for the job.

  5. Brian Rourke
    @BrianRorky

    I have been doing fruit picking for the last week. 5 ten hour days will net you $400 before tax. It’s a form of slave labour.

  7. poroti,
    Do you want a comprehensive list of Chinese atrocities, military or otherwise? Somehow I don’t think I have enough time left today to do it.

  8. C@tmomma
    Just because the drones are snazzy means jack shit if they are not there in required numbers or are fed crap target info.

  9. ‘imacca says:
    Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 6:39 pm

    “The Australian Left has been rather active in condemning the US use of drones.”

    To which the RAAF says……….hold my beer. ‘

    Reflexive whataboutism roolz. So 20th Century Left.

    When China sells to Saudi Arabia, silence. When the US and Australia sell to Saudi Arabia, the criticism is loud and long.

    I am actually beginning to think that the core issue for the Left here is that it does not understand that China has moved from the passive to the active. That China is initiating sales of war equipment to corrupt regimes. That China is invading islands and militarizing them. The China has initiated mini invasions of India. That China has put out the order to shoot in the South China Sea. That China has announced that it will wage war against Taiwan.

    The traditional 20th Century Left view is that China is ONLY reacting to bad behaviour by the West.

    Things change.

  10. Johnpaul Gonzo
    @JohnpaulGonzo
    ·
    58m
    Major flooding impacting Mount Tamborine on the Gold Coast Paul Austin |
    @10NewsFirst

    @10NewsFirstQLD

  11. C@tmomma
    WTF has that got to do with drone “quality” ? If you want to talk about atrocities it is hard to beat this century the atrocity that is the US lead “Global War on Terror” . Something that we are part of. Check out how many 10s of millions have been displaced, killed,wounded and generally had their lives wrecked. Thank goodness it wasn’t that bastard Xi responsible or you might have to give a shit about it.

  14. boerwar

    When the US and Australia sell to Saudi Arabia, the criticism is loud and long.

    Mostly.Bullshit ! Weapons have been merrily sent to them for many a long year. Concern about such sales happens only spasmodically.A few squeaks from some ‘lefties’. Meanwhile your ‘right wing’ mates seem particularly relaxed and comfortable doing all sorts of business with the head chopping Wahhabi spreading jihadi sponsoring Saudis. So on goes the business. There’s money to be had.

  15. Morrison as usual today. Goes to the footy or wherever and posts a video on social media.

    “I wish you every safety in these trying times.”

    (SMH updates at 17:07)

  16. Morrison has announced flood disaster relief payments.

    Applicants may put in their applications for flood relief payments just as soon as their applications for the drought relief payments are rejected and their fire relief payment applications are rejected.

  17. Fulvio,
    Holmes played a cracker. Scrummaging was a bit of a contest, our loosies a weakness, probabaly a Force win there. Taniela on the wing with such fast hands, tighties never used to play like that, gave an ex-red a bit of a touchup too. Thought we were lucky to get the points.

  18. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 7:05 pm

    boerwar

    When the US and Australia sell to Saudi Arabia, the criticism is loud and long.’

    I haven’t heard a single word of criticism from the Left about this at all. It must be in the mail.

  20. poroti @ #2024 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 6:53 pm

    C@tmomma
    WTF has that got to do with drone “quality” ? If you want to talk about atrocities it is hard to beat this century the atrocity that is the US lead “Global War on Terror” . Something that we are part of. Check out how many 10s of millions have been displaced, killed,wounded and generally had their lives wrecked. Thank goodness it wasn’t that bastard Xi responsible or you might have to give a shit about it.

    What a facile post, poroti. You win today’s award for Whataboutism. To which I might add that YOU don’t seem to give a shit about Xi’s atrocities this century, as recently as this year!

    To which I might add that you shouldn’t question my Anti Iraq War credentials until you know what they were. And that’s the point, only misguided fools continue to bring up the Iraq War when so much else has occurred since that time that is as bad, or worse. Okay with Assad and Putin in Syria, or Putin in Crimea, or Putin in Ukraine, or Putin in Russia against his own people? How about the Saudis in Yemen? Or do you only selectively give a shit? Sorry to disappoint your narrative but I care about all of it and I also believe that the American military is just about the only force capable of counteracting it all effectively.

    Jeez, you were probably happy when Saddam Hussein was preparing to hand over running of the country to Uday and Husay! Do you want to ask the Iraqi Kurds or the Shiites in Iraq about that? You want an Iraqi atrocity? How about draining the life blood out of the areas that those people inhabited?

    But no, you in your comfy WA life have the luxury of your freedom from these atrocities to think you can pick and choose who you criticise. Well sorry, I don’t play that game.

    And yes, thank goodness the American armed drones are superior to any other.

  22. Has there been any announcements concerning future announcements from the Morrison LNP government over the weekend?
    I’d hate to miss the complete set!
    Something along the line of ” I have announced that those people in flooded house will not be required to pay for the excess water usage”
    “This will cost the government 250 million”
    As we know the matter will never be mentioned again.
    One more adverse poll while the government is sitting should cause the wobbles.
    Argh, that’s right, only need to slink through this week and all the spotlight is off till the budget.
    Heads down this week for Morrison and the boys. Hooray Henrys them all!

  23. I’m no fan of the royals but SBS had a program the other night showing them in WW2, refusing to leave London amid the bombings and out and about to boost morale when defeat loomed.

    Contrast that with what Mr Hawaiian Shirt might have done at the time.

  25. beguildagain –

    I owe you. And in one for the masculinity stakes, here’s the phenomenal Russian bass Yevgeny Yevgenievich Nesterenko.

    He died yesterday aged 84, from Covid.

    Don Carlo, Verdi, Ella giammai m’ amò!

    Two clips – the first a young Nesterenko in recital, the second at La Scala 1978, a mature beautifully emoted performance, the more so now he has found his peace in rest.

    King Philip II of Spain has made a politically advantageous arranged marriage with a French princess young enough to be his granddaughter. He suspects that his son is having an affair with her. Unable to sleep, he sits alone in his study, recalls her sad look when she first met him and saw how old he was, and admits to himself that she never loved him. He wishes that his royal sceptre could give him the power to see people’s true characters and detect deception. He muses that he will only sleep properly in his tomb, when he is dead.

    (Libretto below the clips for anyone interested.)

    https://youtu.be/oMaEb9J8ACQ

    https://youtu.be/101riagTwP0

    Ella giammai m’ amò!
    No, quel cor chiuso è a me,
    amor per me non ha!

    Io la rivedo ancor
    contemplar triste in volto
    il mio crin bianco il dì
    che qui di Francia venne.
    No, amor per me non ha.

    Ove son?
    Quei doppier presso a finir!
    L’ aurora imbianca il mio veron!
    Già spunta il dì!
    Passar veggo i miei giorni lenti!
    Il sonno, o Dio!
    sparì dai miei occhi languenti!

    Dormirò sol nel manto mio regal.
    Quando la mia giornata è giunta a sera,
    dormirò sol sotto la vôlta nera,
    là, nell’ avello dell’ Escurial.

    Se il serto regal a me
    desse il poter di leggere nei cor,
    che Dio può sol veder!

    Se dorme il prence, veglia il traditore;
    il serto perde il re, il consorte l’ onore!

    She never loved me!
    No, her heart is closed to me,
    she feels no love for me!

    I can still see her,
    sad-faced, gazing at my white hair
    the day she came from France.
    No, she has no love for me,
    she does not love me!

    Where am I?
    Those candelabras are almost spent!
    Dawn whites my balcony,
    day is already breaking!
    I see my days passing slowly!
    Sleep, oh God,
    has vanished from my drooping eyelids.

    I shall sleep alone in my royal mantle
    when I attain the evening of my days,
    I shall sleep alone beneath the black vault,
    there, in my tomb in the Escorial.

    If the royal crown could but give me
    the power to read human hearts
    which God alone can see!

    If the Prince sleeps, the traitors watches;
    the King loses his crown, the husband his honour!

    (wiki)

  26. Argh, that’s right, only need to slink through this week and all the spotlight is off till the budget.

    Christian Porter won’t be returning before Parliament rises.

  27. Citizen

    ‘I wish you every safety in these trying times.”

    Was Scott from sportscasting attempting a joke .. trying?

  28. boerwarsays:
    Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 5:22 pm

    “The actual percentage of vaccinated Aussies is… what, exactly?”

    ……….

    1

  29. Oakeshott Country:

    Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 6:07 pm

    [‘I was born because of the 1955 Maitland flood. They cancelled the night greyhounds at the showground.’]

    Think for one minute how one adverse weather event could’ve changed history – well, at least on PB.

    south:

    Re. Hartcher, about time he’s come to his senses; even he must be up to what a fraud Morrison is.

  33. Fully or 1 injection with 1 to go ?

    The number I quoted is total doses administered, from this site: https://covidlive.com.au/

    Given that we’re just one month into the program and the two shots need to be longer apart from that, I would surmise that the great majority have had just one at this stage, so it would be close to 1% of the population who have had their first jab.

  36. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 6:39 pm
    Brian Rourke
    @BrianRorky

    “I have been doing fruit picking for the last week. 5 ten hour days will net you $400 before tax. It’s a form of slave labour”

    ………

    I use to get $500 to $600 a week picking mangoes and lychees, 10 hours a day in the early 1990’s.

  39. Arthur @ #2049 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 8:09 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 6:39 pm
    Brian Rourke
    @BrianRorky

    “I have been doing fruit picking for the last week. 5 ten hour days will net you $400 before tax. It’s a form of slave labour”

    ………

    I use to get $500 to $600 a week picking mangoes and lychees, 10 hours a day in the early 1990’s.

    So it’s gone backwards as the growers have become emboldened. The Coalition sure don’t hold them to account. And Labor haven’t been in government. And the people that count, the electorate, keep voting the Coalition back in. They prefer their lurks and perks and cheap fruit and veg is a part of that.

  41. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 7:18 pm

    “Sorry, but I forgot to close the bolds”

    ……….

    Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid.

  42. Lizzie:

    Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 8:09 pm

    [‘Old Mavis

    You’ll just have to carry it on your own. Grin.’]

    For sure – grin & bear – a good, pertinent English expression. But you’d have to agree that, on this particurlar night, others are having more fun?

  43. Old Mavis @ #2055 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 8:25 pm

    Lizzie:

    Sunday, March 21, 2021 at 8:09 pm

    [‘Old Mavis

    You’ll just have to carry it on your own. Grin.’]

    For sure – grin & bear – a good, pertinent English expression. But you’d have to agree that, on this particurlar night, others are having more fun?

    Well I’ve got a knight in shining armour coming to my aid, so there’s that. 😀

  44. C@

    Throw in the use of migrant labour – I’ve heard horror stories of people with low/no English skills being put into buses and basically dumped at orchards for weeks at a time. No idea of where they are, let alone who they can ask for help.

  45. There is a minimum wage for fruit pickers in Australia which is around $22ph for casuals. Seeing this person has only been paid $8ph they should make a claim to FWA or contact the AWU.

  48. Mavis

    I agree it’s been a bit patchy for a few days.

    Side comment. For lack of anything else I watch Grand Designs (although I’m always interested in archtecture)
    But I confess I find a broad NZ accent almost unintelligible.

  49. davidwh @ #2058 Sunday, March 21st, 2021 – 8:30 pm

    There is a minimum wage for fruit pickers in Australia which is around $22ph for casuals. Seeing this person has only been paid $8ph they should make a claim to FWA or contact the AWU.

    Speaking of lurks and perks, the growers and the labour hire companies have figured them all out. You’ve probably heard of them before and every so often they get exposed. But nothing ever seems to change.

    In fact, the Coalition are complicit in trying to make things worse again. Witness their push to open the borders again to ‘skilled workers’ on Temporary Visas. This is to satisfy the lurk merchants. It stinks.

    zoomster is spot on.

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