Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 at the last result four weeks ago (a longer than usual gap owing to the interuption of the Queensland election), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). The report says Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 64%, down one, but doesn’t provide disapproval (UPDATE: Up one to 32%). Anthony Albanese’s records better ratings after some weak results recently, at 43% approval (up four) and 39% disapproval (down four), but he continues to trail Morrison 58-29 as preferred prime minister, hardly changed from 57-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1510.
Newcastle University’s time will come.
Oh wait. Didn’t they have to go offshore because of Labor Not blasting the LNP on support for renewable commercial investment?
Edit: Imagine. Manufacturing in Australia
Most Greens remind me of the hell-fire preachers of old. Everything is black or white and nothing is ever forgiven.
It is fine to celebrate Biden beating Trump but this shouldn’t be confused with a left wave because the Republicans are close enough in the house to win it in the midterms and the left’s poster child AOC dropped 10% in her district.
a r @ #150 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:23 am
The 70 million are motivated by white supremacy, and survived the last 4 years, the left coalition is much more complex and much more likely to splinter, disintegrate. The centre right dems are already working hard on destroying it, and Biden hasn’t even been sworn in yet.
lizzie @ #152 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:27 am
Most of them are quite fanatical, esp those who comment online and on social media. It’s the main reason why I ignore them. That plus the realisation that they are quite out of touch with society.
These people should get out more into the community to practise their inappropriate behaviour. Now I would be interested if our local Maccas were to be the scene of a rerun of the legendary Engadine Maccas incident.
538 don’t get things “right or wrong”. They aggregate data and estimate probabilities. There was a very high probability that Florida would not swing. There was a very high probability that Georgia would be really close, that Arizona and Nevada would be very close, that PA would be more Trumpy than WI or MI.
They very explicitly considered an election in which the polling errors would be similar in 2020 to the errors in 2016….and suggested this would result in a cliff-hanger. The errors overall are within one standard deviation, and mostly well within the MOE.
The most interesting thing about the polls is not that there were errors but that they were mostly quite close….and that they matched the data available on modes of voting.
The problems with polling remain, of course. It’s very very difficult to obtain random samples, so pollsters have to use algorithms instead. This is inherently subject to errors….possibly to greater errors than would apply to randomised sampling.
Lizzie
Yep and when you call them out on something o boy they crack the sads.
Lizzie
That’s Labor. We lost because of Kevin Rudd’s CPRS.
Jon Kuldelka has been making jokes about Labor blaming the Democrats poor results compared to expectations on not gaining the Senate on Election Day on the CPRS.
That’s how big a cultural Labor blame the Greens is.
Confessions says:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 11:28 am
lizzie @ #152 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:27 am
Most Greens remind me of the hell-fire preachers of old. Everything is black or white and nothing is ever forgiven.
Most of them are quite fanatical, esp those who comment online and on social media. It’s the main reason why I ignore them. That plus the realisation that they are quite out of touch with society.
The Greens are Labor-phobic.
Mexicanbeemer @ #153 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:27 am
The Dems need to listen to AOC much more, and corrupt centralists much much less.
It pays particular attention to the anti-vax position of Chiropractors .
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-denialist-playbook/
WWP
AOC might be the future but the Democrats would be worried with her performance.
Seems to me the PMO has too many staffers and not enough real work to do. Poring through Twitter is pretty paranoid. But that’s ScottyfromMarketing for you. So sensitive and needing control!
Mexicanbeemer @ #164 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:33 am
Her biggest problem is being a democrat, the dems couldn’t win florida which supported by 60% a minimum wage initiative, when you get a lot less votes than progressive proposals you need to take a good hard look at yourself, not at your progressive leaders.
WeWantPaul says:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 11:30 am
Mexicanbeemer @ #153 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:27 am
It is fine to celebrate Biden beating Trump but this shouldn’t be confused with a left wave because the Republicans are close enough in the house to win it in the midterms and the left’s poster child AOC dropped 10% in her district.
The Dems need to listen to AOC much more, and corrupt centralists much much less.
“Corrupt centralists?”
This is absolute fucking bullshit propagated by Demo-phobic crytpto-Trumpists.
The results in the election show that to some extent well-educated, white female voters from suburban electorates voted for Biden in the top-line race and Republicans in Senate and House races. They voted to get rid of Trump. They also voted against the Faux.
The same voters that put Biden into office also voted against Democrats in some key contests.
The Labor / Greens issue with the CPRS was both sides were playing base politics with it, rather than working on a solution, more base politics isn’t the way to solve a problem, it is time both Labor and the Greens grewup and played politics like adults.
lizzie
Unlike a number of the local Labor ‘enthusiasts’ eh ? 😆
Briefly
Joe Biden campaigned on getting “dark money” out of politics.
That’s The President telling you there is corruption in American politics.
Edit: I say that as it was one of the few issues Biden mentioned. It was mostly heal the soul dump Trump
Non @ #167 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:38 am
Champagne comedy.
I’m guessing you don’t invest a lot of time in TYT.
The defeat of the CPRS bills by Brown, Minchin, Joyce and Abbott, the upsetting of Turnbull, the deposing of Rudd…these are all linked. They signalled the victory of the Right wrt climate politics. They have been winning ever since. Total fuck up….and then amplified by Gillard and Brown all over again.
We failed.
poroti
I think I’m too old to take intractable positions any more. It uses too much energy.
TYT….nfi what that is….What I can say for sure is the epithet “corrupt centrists” is absolute fucking bullshit. It is a category invented and propagated by the Faux….by Demo-Phobic crypto-Reactionaries.
Briefly
Yes you failed. It was poor policy.
Gillard and her political partnership succeeded. That’s the first lie you accept when you blame the Greens instead of Abbott and Murdoch’s lies for Labor’s election loss.
It was not the CPRS or the Greens that failed.
The Shovel
‘The world breathed a collective sigh of relief today, after learning that only 71 million Americans voted to see the continuation of a white supremacist presidency. ‘
Non @ #174 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:45 am
Wait until you find out what the Australian cabinet has been upto. Now you could argue that it is right wing corruption, not centralist corruption, but they did win an election not that long ago.
https://youtu.be/NYXcY3xkR_U
just for you Non … enjoy.
It’s very simple Labor. The CPRS failed because the Liberals did not back it.
That’s fact. So stop blaming the Greens for Liberal failure.
Hide the sausage!
Scott Morrison says he is unaware of the content of an upcoming Four Corners episode set to investigate the alleged mingling of the professional and personal lives of two cabinet ministers.
The Australian revealed on Monday that government figures have directly contacted ABC managing director David Anderson and members of the ABC board over the programme.
The Prime Minister said on Monday he expected the ABC to uphold its charter, and they should investigate the personal behaviour of MPs across the political spectrum.
“We would just expect the ABC always that they would act in an independent, unbiased and apolitical manner,” he said in Canberra.
Mexicanbeemer @ #153 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:27 am
There was indisputably a left wave. Or at least, a blue one. It missed Florida, but hit almost everywhere else.
Saw a map of this earlier, showing the swing between 2016 and 2020 on a state-by-state basis. Nearly the entire country is more blue. Can’t remember where I found it though. 🙁
guytaur says:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 11:54 am
It’s very simple Labor. The CPRS failed because the Liberals did not back it.
That’s fact. So stop blaming the Greens for Liberal failure.
By their lights, the Liberals did not fail. They won. They secured the win with the help of Bob (look, no windmills) Brown.
The No Windmills Party continue to help the Liberals.
Holdenhillbilly @ #181 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 11:57 am
Good. When does the first episode of “At Home With Scott” go to air?
Holdenhillbilly
Morrison: “I know nozzing!”
a r
That sounds like the presidential map but the house and senate results were not so positive for the Democrats which would encourage the Republicans as they look forward to the midterms but Biden would see opportunities to improve in 2024.
I don’t care about their sex lives. I care about their blatant corruption of fairness.
Briefly
Thanks for proving my point in crystal clear clarity.
You are blaming the Greens for what the Liberals do.
News for you. The Greens are not the Liberals.
Shocking earth shattering news for you I know.
Mexicanbeemer @ #186 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 11:02 am
Yes, it was a presidential map.
The House/Senate is trickier. I know at least a few people in the US who normally vote Republican but this time showed up and did a Biden/Rep split ticket. And probably many more who prefer an obstructed Federal government (regardless of the party of the president) so went for Rep in the House/Senate this time on the assumption that Biden was heading for a thumping victory.
ABC: We have evidence that a member of your cabinet has acted inappropriately at a function.
PM: You cannot publish it until you investigate all other political parties.
ABC: Where do we start such an investigation?
PM: Your charter.
Sigh! I suppose tonight’s 4 Corners will mean another $50 million taken from the ABC by Mr BunningsCubbyHouse.
Pucovski with back to back double centuries.
Get to to 250 and then query whether that has ever been done back to back
Hexed that
guytaur
The greens support the Liberals, own the consequences.
In Queensland the Greens are so proud, they downed the most progressive member of the Labor government. They literal spread shit on her campaign, oh something to be so proud of.
And what is the new Green member going to offer. Interference in the hope of getting a Queensland LNP government next time.
The Greens have a lot to be ashamed off, little to be proud of.
FredNK
Labor supports the Liberals.
See political donations legislation.
Stop blaming the Greens for what the Liberals do.
I know you have sour grapes that two progressive woman competed. Labor lost. Deal with it.
guytaur says:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 12:05 pm
The Greens are not the Liberals.
They have something in common….incurable Labor-phobia. They play tag together with the intention of ensuring Labor never come to power. This is the lesson of the last 25 years of Federal politics. Unless this changes, the LNP will continue in office, unimpeded by anything.
According to CNN:
Meanwhile, in a parallel universe somewhere:
I hope sane Labor people are seeing the insanity of blaming the Greens for what the Liberals do.
Shorter Morrison :
If you can’t find a similar bad story about Labor, you can’t run one on us.
Balance
LNP style
citizen @ #196 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 11:22 am
Old news
Kushner has not done so, he’s urged Trump to legally challenge the results