Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, but otherwise not much change in the latest Newspoll.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 at the last result four weeks ago (a longer than usual gap owing to the interuption of the Queensland election), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). The report says Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 64%, down one, but doesn’t provide disapproval (UPDATE: Up one to 32%). Anthony Albanese’s records better ratings after some weak results recently, at 43% approval (up four) and 39% disapproval (down four), but he continues to trail Morrison 58-29 as preferred prime minister, hardly changed from 57-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,548 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Ghost would be going off the accompanying graph (not the tables, which haven’t appeared yet and which I’ll take as gospel when they do), but Simon Benson’s report says Labor are up a point to 34%. But it was 34% last time, so most likely Benson is wrong.

  2. From “The Australian”

    The Australian leading with ambitious articles. I like the look of this one

    Which should prolly read “The seventy million people who voted for Trump are revolting”.

    Glorious sunny day in Newcastle.

  3. KayJay @ #17 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 7:17 am

    From “The Australian”

    ” rel=”nofollow ugc”>

    The Australian leading with ambitious articles. I like the look of this one

    ” rel=”nofollow ugc”>

    Which should prolly read “The seventy million people who voted for Trump are revolting”.

    Glorious sunny day in Newcastle.

    Move over Melania there’s a doctor in the house” works for me.

  4. ItzaDream
    Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 7:25 am
    Comment #18

    “Move over Melania there’s a doctor in the house” works for me.

    Obviously human beings in the White House will be a huge relief after four years of lunacy. 😇

  5. Simon Birmingham on ABC Breakfast with all the details (sic) ready to defend his Party’s stance on Paris target and 50%. So smooth. 🙁

  6. Coffee and then this-
    “ .. A Catholic, a Woman of Color, a Jewish man, and a Teacher are about to walk into the White House and make America again Damn it feels great I’m ready for this!”
    A good start to the day.

  7. When Barrack Obama won the Presidency, the real elites fought back by astroturfing the Tea Party movement. Perhaps we’ll see a “popular” revival of it.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Peter Hartcher says that the leaders of free nations around the world are heaving a mighty sigh of relief now that the Shiva (Hindu god of destruction) of the international democratic system has been voted out by the American people.
    Alexandra Smith tells us about the ambitious plan for NSW to become a renewable energy superpower as coal approaches the end of its life.
    Energy policy has proved to be a miserable field of play for Australian politicians, with his new energy road map Matt Kean may have found a path through, explains Nick O’Malley.
    Shane Wright reports that the government’s second round of tax cuts will be fully operational within a week, prompting economists to predict much of the cash will be spent. We shall see. No doubt.
    New documents reveal a valuation of just $1.4 million for the water rights sold by Angus Taylor’s old company to Barnaby Joyce’s department. Unfortunately, the government was guided by a later, far higher valuation for the controversial water rights. Jommy Tee’s latest investigation is further compelling evidence of the drastic need for a federal corruption commission with teeth.
    South Australian Premier Steven Marshall wants to lure more businesses from interstate to help bolster the state’s economy as he doubles a state-based stimulus package to $4 billion.
    Nick Toscano writes that Australia’s top miner, BHP, has taken the first step in its plan to bring down the greenhouse gas emissions caused by customers of its coal and iron ore around the world, signing a deal to fund decarbonisation initiatives for China’s biggest steelmaker.
    Katharine Murphy writes that the lesson in Joe Biden’s win is that unity and ambitious climate policy can win elections.
    But Scott Morrison says he will hold his ground on climate change policy in the wake of Joe Biden’s victory, while views differ within Labor over the significance it played in the US election, reports Phil Coorey.
    A former Coalition staffer appointed to the administrative appeals tribunal is also working as a consultant to a lobbying firm, a potential conflict of interest. Mark Dreyfus, has used this revelation to renew Labor’s critique that Christian Porter and his predecessor, George Brandis, have stacked the tribunal with more than 70 Coalition mates.
    Australians visiting Centrelink offices waited 30% longer on average in the past financial year compared with 2015-16, as the agency continues to shut or merge shopfronts.
    Katharine Murphy tell us that Labor will likely try and amend the Morrison government’s youth wage subsidy when federal parliament resumes for a week-long sitting but it is unclear whether the opposition will insist on the changes.
    Ross Gittins opines that the Reserve Bank is struggling to stay relevant in a post-inflation world.
    The RBA has fired a $100 billion monetary bazooka. Here’s how it will help, explains Isaac Gross in The New Daily.
    Josh Butler writes that a Biden presidency will put an increasingly “isolated” Australian government under immense pressure to adopt strong environment and emissions policies, leading climate voices say, as the United States looks to again assume a global leadership role.
    Cait Kelly explains how 1500 Australians registered for farm work but not one of them got a job. I think it’s time for Fair Work Australia to go on a road trip.
    Michael Pascoe wants Australia to be serious about education and training.
    Kate McClymont reports that the multimillion-dollar insurance policy on the life of the alleged mastermind of one of Australia’s largest tax frauds has been declined because of his failure to disclose his extensive drug use.
    Forget face-to-face customer service, in-flight magazines and hot meals, the future of flying could look just like booking an Uber, Australian’s leading aviation analysts have said.
    Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Italy and the US – have reported the coronavirus in farmed mink to the World Organisation for Animal Health.
    Dr Doowon Lee, Naomi Moy, Dr Nader Mahmoudi, Dr Ayman Fouder and Professor Francesco Paolucci spotlight successful COVID-19 response strategies.,14480
    The AFR’s editorial says that a stronger Australia is needed for post-Trump America.
    With Australia’s relationship with China at a very dangerous stage, the timing of what is expected to be a ‘more nuanced’ approach from a Biden administration could not be more welcome, writes Phil Coorey.
    Chris Berg says that Australian needs to mend relations with China following Trump’s defeat.
    Tony Wright is pleased that, with empathy, civility and healing, Joe Biden restored the soul of oratory in America.
    Boris Johnson has risked opening a rift with the US president-elect, Joe Biden, by insisting the internal markets bill that reneges on part of the EU withdrawal agreement would go ahead as planned.
    The editorial in the SMH celebrates the return of a much-needed dose of normalcy for Washington.
    Tom Switzer writes that the great hope is that Joe Biden will bring his personal qualities to power, mediate policy disputes, work with both parties to end Washington’s toxic polarisation and at the same time improve America’s image abroad.
    Katharine Murphy looks a t Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd agreeing on the bad influence of Murdoch and the demise of his man, Trump.
    Joe Biden has pledged that he will not be tweeting at all hours, Indeed, he probably will not tweet much at all, says the London Telegraph’s Nick Allen.
    US immigrant layer Sharanya Mitchell gleefully writes, “Today feels like a revival of the hope for the future of the country. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ victory gives us some faith that those injustices will start to be addressed at a federal level and that this country, in which I’ve chosen to raise my sons, is one of possibility.”
    George Bush has sent a nice message to Biden.
    According to Nicholas Stuart, Biden’s election shows an overwhelming support for a new world order. He concludes by saying, “Biden’s victory sounds an ominous warning for Scott Morrison. The policies of the past; the politics he excels at, simply won’t cut it any more. Change is in the air.”
    Sean Kelly begins this contribution with, “To watch Donald Trump, deprived of his one eternal proxy for personality – winning – declaring once more, falsely, sadly, with only the barest skerricks of facts to twist to his purposes, that the election was being illegally stolen from him, was to be reminded of the enormous power of democratic elections to confer authority – and then take it away.” Certainly worth a read.
    It was a speech of restoration, renewal and hope. President-elect Joe Biden seeks to rekindle the American dream, end the demonisation and heal the divisions, writes Paul Kelly who goes on say that Biden radiated strength and a sense of presidential mission. The long four-year nightmare of Donald Trump’s narcissistic discord is terminated. America has a new chance.
    The AFR’s Jacob Greiber writes that Biden will set out to banish the Trumps demons.
    Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s Justin Sink explains how Donald Trump could unleash bedlam in his final days as president.
    Chris Christie has urged US President Donald Trump to provide proof of claims of voter fraud in the election or “move on” in the most forceful terms yet by a senior Republican on the issue.
    The AIMN’s Rosemary J36 has penned a letter to Donald Trump’s children.
    The Washington Post’s David Nakamura says that Trump’s bid to discredit the integrity of the US election results and use legal action to block the completion of vote tallies in some states has raised fears, even among his own aides, that he will refuse to concede and seek to undermine a potential transfer of power after Joe Biden’s victory last Saturday.
    The President’s disgraceful behaviour is deeply troubling, writes a concerned John Bolton who says that some time in the future the US will elect a real Republican again.
    Joe Biden wins the election, and now has to fight the one thing Americans agree on: the nation’s deep division, writes Jared Mondschein.
    The President-elect faces the most difficult economic conditions since he was elected vice-president, with federal debt on its way to surpass the level it reached during World War II, says Shane Wright.
    “How can Biden heal America when Trump doesn’t want it healed?”, asks Robert Reich.
    ‘America First’ is no more, but can president-elect Biden fix the US reputation abroad, wonders US politics lecturer, Gorana Grgic.
    Donald Trump has been defeated. But Trumpism could be here to stay, opines Geoffrey Kabaservice.
    Donald Trump will be having ‘meltdowns upon meltdowns’, according to his niece, who sees poetic justice in the lies and cheating now coming back to bite him. As for saying he’ll run in 2024, she says, that’s just a face-saving exercise. It’s a way of distracting him from the fact that he’s probably going to prison.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    And Rowe gives us a diptych with a four year gap

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Golding

    Fiona Katauskas

    Glen Le Lievre
    Johannes Leak

    Jim Pavlidis

    John Shakespeare

    From the US

  9. The left wave is coming.

    The last two countries of the far right strongholds is Australia and Uk.

    Time for the Australians and the Uk’ers to rise up! And punch Murdoch in the face!

    Where is LVR/Wayne/etc?

  10. Quasar I was disappointed with what happened to Obama (Senate obstruction) and I’m looking for reasons to believe that won’t happen again. Biden may be a nice guy, but sweeping reform requires control of the Senate.

  11. Time for NSW to mask up.

    On November 23, NSW will reopen its border with Victoria.

    After recording nine days straight of zero new coronavirus cases, it is now Victoria – not NSW – that should be worried about the threat of interstate travellers.

    “Rather than being the place that lives with the virus, NSW is now the outlier in Australia and a threat to the rest of us,” said Associate Professor Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland.

    Former World Health Organisation epidemiologist Professor Adrian Esterman agreed, saying “Victoria is doing much better than NSW”.

    …Professor Esterman acknowledged NSW had done a “great job” of stamping out coronavirus outbreaks, but said as long as the state remained the “only source of community transmission in the country” then it will continue to pose a small risk to other states and territories.

  12. Victoria records another day of zero new coronavirus infections

    Victoria has recorded its tenth straight day of zero new coronavirus cases on Monday as Victorians wake to a range of scrapped restrictions and new-found freedoms.

    There are two cases with an unknown source and four active cases across the state.

  13. Apparently there was a herald sun poll about Daniel Andrews which backfired again on the newsltd hacks, majority did not blame Andrews for the spread of the corona virus , Majority supported Andrews

  14. lizzie well I’m glad one media outlet has figured that out.

    Go to Facebook/Twitter and you’ll see that Victorians recognised the threat from NSW a week ago.

  15. Ousted Trump will return to a company deep in debt and under criminal investigation: report

    President Donald J. Trump may have a rude awakening waiting for him after he exits the White House and returns to his family business in New York. While Congress may no longer be as focused on Trump’s business activities, prosecutors in New York will continue their investigations, The New York Times reported Sunday.

    Trump and his company are under investigation by the Manhattan district attorney’s office for various potential financial crimes and continues to push for exposure of his tax returns. The New York State attorney general’s office is conducting a separate civil inquiry into suspicions that the company misstated its assets, possibly to reduce taxes or obtain loans.

  16. Australia’s first Greens-dominated council elected in Yarra

    Yarra Council could become the country’s most left-wing local government after voters handed a majority to the Greens for the first time in Australia and awarded a socialist with the strongest popular vote.

    Every Greens candidate that contested was elected in Yarra — which covers inner-Melbourne suburbs including Richmond, Collingwood, Fitzroy, Carlton North and Abbotsford — and will now hold five of the nine councillor positions.

    Two socialists and two independents were also elected – wiping out Labor in what is a major blow to the party in their former heartland.

  17. Thanks BK for an excellent Dawn Patrol. I really like the cartoons. Below the .gif – just for practice.

    Looks like instead of “turtles all the way down” we now have “cats”.

  18. Cud Chewer

    As one observer put it, Gladys has followed Scotty’s lead throughout, allowing people to make their own “choices” (a favourite LNP word) on how to behave.

  19. Opinion: Rattenbury’s Greens have enormous power. How will they use?

    To understand the power Shane Rattenbury’s Greens now have in the ACT, it’s useful to strip away the bureaucratic titles and consider what these portfolios actually entail.

    The Greens, with their three ministers in cabinet and 12 portfolios between them, now have oversight of (I suggest you take a deep breath); Canberra’s parks and wildlife, Canberra’s water, Canberra’s energy, Canberra’s gaming machines, Canberra’s homelessness, mental health and communities services, Canberra’s heritage and the quality of Canberra’s buildings.

    For a progressive party, these appointments are akin to being handed the keys to the castle.

  20. Mitt Romney slams Trump’s voter fraud claims: ‘He has a relatively relaxed relationship with the truth’

    Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah on Sunday knocked down President Donald Trump’s claim that Democrats are trying to steal the 2020 election.

    Romney was asked about the president’s assertions of voter fraud during an interview on CNN.

    “You’re not going to change the nature of President Trump in these last days, apparently, of his presidency,” Romney said. “He is who he is. And he has a relatively relaxed relationship with the truth. And so he’s going to keep on fighting until the very end.”

  21. Can the Greens become the third major party of Australian politics?

    Until now, success like this had only ever been a Green dream.

    When the new ACT Legislative Assembly sits next month, three Greens ministers will sit on the frontbench, alongside six Labor colleagues, after the two parties signed a parliamentary agreement.

    The Greens will hold positions of serious influence — like attorney-general and environment minister.

    Six Greens were elected to the 25-seat Assembly at the recent ACT election, alongside 10 Labor and nine Liberal members.

    The party says it has finally cemented its place as the third major party of ACT politics, and has a legitimate claim to the levers of power.

  22. lizzie I’ve dealt with Gladys on fast rail and on a couple of occasions I’ve talked with her on the street. She impresses me as someone who just isn’t capable of going beyond (and questioning) the advice of her bureaucrats. In other words, she’s as good, or bad as the advice she’s getting.

  23. 51-49. The Pollsters ‘safe room’ given polling’s recent track record . Clinging to smidgeons either side of 50 seems the least embarrassing way to go 🙂

  24. The Green/Labor gov that will lead Canberra for the next four years.

    That’s what a real progressive power sharing administration looks like. Great result for Canberra and the left.

  25. This is something I keep meaning to post..

    I’m so glad that the experts responsible for Victoria’s success have finally had a chance to give their detractors the middle finger 🙂

    Why did some academic colleagues feel that making a target of us (and thereby unleashing a wave of both amateur and professional online trolls) was reasonable, but that a target of less than five cases per day by October 26 was not?

    The answer to that question holds important messages for science and its role in society.


    Oh and time for me to gloat. Months ago I corresponded with these people. Remember I do have a formal background in mathematical modelling (I did Maths before switching to Engineering). When Victoria’s timetable was announced I predicted that the 30-50 (average cases per day) would be easily reached and that the 5 target would be very tight. I was absolutely spot on.

    Victoria has taken a path that could easily result in elimination. I couldn’t be happier. If they do, it will put the focus back on NSW and its “odd man out” suppression policy.

  26. So all states, except NSW seem to have gone for elimination, NSW suppression…..and it seems to be eliminated in QLD/NT/WA/SA/TAS and almost VIC.
    NSW is the pariah with outbreaks/ hot spots all over the place……how is gold-standard Gladys going to respond?

  27. Birmingham is waffling on (RN) about Biden’s carbon-neutral target by 2050. Asked if he backed Steggall’s bill and would allow it to be debated, he said that there are a number of priorities to deal with this week – the same lame excuse Porter used for putting the integrity commission bill on the back burner. It’s doubtful that Morrison and the climate denialists in his government are happy with Biden’s victory.

  28. Cud Chewer

    That was a very interesting observation about Gladys, suggests she has no confidence in her own judgement and perhaps no ability to think “outside the square”. She would also become stubborn once she’s made up her mind, which seems to be borne out in her decisions on koala clearing and some infrastructure.

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