Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, but otherwise not much change in the latest Newspoll.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 at the last result four weeks ago (a longer than usual gap owing to the interuption of the Queensland election), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). The report says Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 64%, down one, but doesn’t provide disapproval (UPDATE: Up one to 32%). Anthony Albanese’s records better ratings after some weak results recently, at 43% approval (up four) and 39% disapproval (down four), but he continues to trail Morrison 58-29 as preferred prime minister, hardly changed from 57-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,548 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. poroti

    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says she is ‘mortified’ by the ‘cruel and spiteful’ notion of Queensland opening its borders to Victoria before Greater Sydney

    Suck shit Gladys for being such a tout for “suppression”..

  3. Thanks poroti for setting me searching.

    Ms Berejiklian questioned the basis for Queensland’s medical advice, which the state is relying on for its border decisions. “I don’t know what that medical advice is based on. I’ve never, ever heard of that 28-day period. I’ve never, ever heard of having to trace each source of infection within two days. I don’t know where that’s come from,” she said.

    In a letter sent to premiers and chief ministers in September, obtained by the Brisbane Times in September, the health panel advising national cabinet proposed a controlled COVID zone should be defined as an area with locally acquired cases in the previous 28 days, where authorities have been able to trace how someone contracted the virus.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-eyes-christmas-reopening-but-nsw-s-berejiklian-still-fumes-20201111-p56dkh.html
    November 11, 2020 — 11.33am
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/australia-s-chief-health-officers-back-queensland-border-trigger-20200916-p55w8y.html
    September 16, 2020 — 3.35pm

    Does Berejiklian have any credibility left?

  5. Billie

    I waited till the end to hear how Parnell McGuinness would spin the low welfare payments and sure enough she supported the Lib idea that generosity would make them welfare dependent but slid out of it by saying that other means must be found to help people find jobs.

    As if!

  6. LR the AHPPC is dysfunctional and there’s definitely more leaks coming.

    A few months ago, Dr. Norman Swan pointed out that there were “experts” attached to the AHPPC that were genuine experts in their field, just not in epidemiology. Reminds me of that ladder climbing kidney doctor.. oh what’s his name. You know the idiot who used to be CMO..

  8. Heaven forfend! 7.30 tells it truthful, what-ho!

    Prince Charley was mortified when some antipodean oaf chucked an ‘ouse brick through Sir John Kerr’s limo window.

    After that he couldn’t possibly become Governor-General, and was deeply offended, don’t youse know?

    St. Paul Kelly – none other than Editor-At-Large of the nation’s treasured broadsheet, The Australian – sets us straight. Don’t worry about those pesky palace letters, or Professor Jenny Hockey. After all, what does SHE bloody-well know?

  9. Stressed Out Christian Porter Books A Table At Manuka Public Bar To Blow Off Some Steam
    “This follows a chaotic 48 hours since the ABC’s crack investigative team at Four Corners broke the news that the entitled rich boy currently holding the office of Attorney General has spent his life carrying on like an entitled rich boy.”

    https://www.betootaadvocate.com/entertainment/stressed-out-christian-porter-books-a-table-at-manuka-public-bar-to-blow-off-some-steam/

  13. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, November 11, 2020 at 8:06 pm
    Our lovely German Shepherd has just had seven puppies. Mum and babies doing well.
    __________________________________________________
    Do you think thats responsible behaviour on your part? Why wasn’t your dog neutered?

  14. This needs to be repeated, and shared far and wide:

    Doug Cameron was on The Drum tonight. His views on Joel Fitzgibbon

    https://twitter.com/abcthedrum/status/1326426213716537349?s=21

    Doug Cameron and my mother were neighbours for a decade and a half, and getting to know him, he is really decent and intelligent person who wants the Labor party to evolve to support the working class existing now and in the future.

    As so many people have said, it is “pink” collar workers and those in service industries, working on the minimum wage.

  19. Big scandal – election fraud in NZ.

    The candidates have feathers and the policy platforms are non-existent. It’s New Zealand’s Bird of the Year vote — and just like a regular election, there are concerns over keeping the vote fair.

    More than 1,500 fraudulent votes were cast in the early hours of Monday in the country’s annual bird election, briefly pushing the Little-Spotted Kiwi to the top of the leaderboard, organizers and environmental organization Forest & Bird announced Tuesday.

    Those votes — which were discovered by the election’s official scrutineers — have since been removed. According to election spokesperson Laura Keown, the votes were cast using fake email addresses that were all traced back to the same IP address in Auckland, New Zealand’s most populous city.

    “It’s lucky we spotted this little Kiwi trying to sneak in an extra 1,500 votes under the cover of darkness,” Keown said in a statement. “But they’ll have to play by the rules like all of the other birds to win the competition.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/10/asia/new-zealand-bird-election-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

  20. Late Riser @ #1518 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 7:39 pm

    Cud Chewer @ #1504 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 6:53 pm

    spray + LR

    The go-to site for covid data is aptly named covid19data.com.au

    Thanks. That’s where I get my data. 🙂

    Just to elaborate, the daily data don’t help me much since they vary during the day and the reporting times themselves have varied during the pandemic. So I use the cumulative data and plot and analyse that. If there’s a separate link to cumulative data for local and quarantine (OS/interstate) that would help. For me to start using local and quarantine I would have to write and schedule a scraper (or something like that) or make sure I’m manually checking at the same time each day. I’m fundamentally lazy. So neither has happened yet. 🙂

  21. Ethical Martini
    @ethicalmartini
    ·
    9h
    A great thread.
    I have been in the gallery, I’ve been a journalist and writing about journalism for 40 years.
    I recently requested that my Canberra press pass be renewed – usually automatic- the Gallery committee refused and won’t answer my correspondence.

  24. LR in “Daily transmission sources in each state and territory”

    https://www.covid19data.com.au/transmission-sources-states

    The data from both NSW and Victoria is taken from their databases and its retrospectively corrected. Its as close to the “true” daily cases and transmission sources as you can get. As for the other states, they tend to post cumulative updates (so you don’t know which cases on what date got revised). There’s also

    https://www.covid19data.com.au/states-and-territories

    And the “days since..” chart is pretty accurate. Well at least it agrees with my reckoning of the situation. The point here is that outside of NSW and Victoria there’s essentially no local transmission. I mean there are some edge cases, like the kid that got infected by its mum whilst in quarantine in WA. But in terms of what represents a real threat to the wider community, its pretty much done and dusted.


  25. Billie says:
    Wednesday, November 11, 2020 at 7:31 pm

    Doug Cameron was on The Drum tonight. His views on Joel Fitzgibbon

    https://twitter.com/abcthedrum/status/1326426213716537349?s=21

    Another man that has worked it out. The Liberals want to pretend there is a future for coal, as do the Greens. Labor need to deal with the reality. Coal is finished.

    The issue is not the bullshit from the Liberals and the Greens, the issue is the transition and how we manage it.

  29. I remember watching a documentary with Rob Bell, I think, on that bridge frednk.
    Amazing. Would love to go.
    Going to have to see how this virus pans out.
    Even if this vaccine does the job. 66 million in the UK. 350+ million in the USA.
    Europe 500+ million. Plus everywhere else. How many years until these places are safe?

  33. Oh noes. Gladys is having memory issues. Which is understandable, when you can’t remember if the person you’re in a close personal relationship is a boy friend or something else, and then you can’t remember what the something else is either. Poor Gladys. So much money, so little recall. Perhaps someone should take her shredder away; she needs all the help she can get.

    “I can’t remember what I did last week, let alone what I did two years ago,” she replied.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/11/gladys-berejiklian-says-she-cant-recall-if-she-was-at-dinner-where-labor-claims-donations-were-made

  38. CC – This link is useful from a global perspective for raw data in table form.
    https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-AU&gl=AU&ceid=AU%3Aen

    Sweden has hit the top 10 for number of daily new cases with over 15,000

    France is yet to peak according to their epidemiologists, despite Monday seeing a dramatic drop.

    Ireland is performing well, but I wonder if they will stick the course or give back their gains.

    This has got a long way to go…

  40. AZ do you know a good world wide comparison graphing site that lets you compare cases per head of population? There used to be one called coronavirusgraphs but it died.

  42. “Make no mistake: The attempt to harness Trumpism—without Trump, but with calculated, refined, and smarter political talent—is coming. And it won’t be easy to make the next Trumpist a one-term president. He will not be so clumsy or vulnerable. He will get into office less by luck than by skill”
    …………….
    “A political nap for a few years probably looks appealing to many who opposed Trump, but the real message of this election is not that Trump lost and Democrats triumphed. It’s that a weak and untalented politician lost, while the rest of his party has completely entrenched its power over every other branch of government: the perfect setup for a talented right-wing populist to sweep into office in 2024. And make no mistake: They’re all thinking about it.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/trump-proved-authoritarians-can-get-elected-america/617023/

  43. Craig Emerson
    @DrCraigEmerson
    ·
    8h
    Do members of the @VictorianBar have no presence of mind, no self-awareness? Whatever their reason for voting off Kathleen Foley, surely they’d be aware that this sends a message to young women everywhere: don’t complain about men’s misbehaviour or you will pay a price.
    ***

    Sally Neighbour
    @neighbour_s
    · 8h
    Kathleen Foley, the courageous barrister and reformer who appeared on #4Corners this week and described AG Christian Porter as a ‘misogynist’, was tonight voted off the Victorian Bar Council. @VictorianBar says it had nothing to do with her appearance on #4Corners

  45. Aqualung

    https://youtu.be/zvuufBqp0_4

    Its very impressive and there’s a story behind it. China builds high speed rail lines for roughly $30 million (AUD) per kilometre. This is rail lines that are sitting mostly on viaduct (as you see being built in the video) or in tunnel.

    I’ve talked to the engineers that did this. A couple of years ago I gave a talk here in Newcastle to a group of Hunter region Councils. I took a still from this video as part of my presentation.

    The costings done in 2013 for HSR were bogus. Stuff like they costed a flood plain crossing (viaduct) at $110 million per kilometre – whereas several years later the Kempsey flood plain bridge was built for $65 million per kilometre and its twice as wide a structure as you need for HSR.

    Its not about cheap labour. Its about good design – commonality of elements, automation and economy of scale. Hence the machine you see in the video. And if you want I can take you step by step through the physical design of a HSR line between Sydney and Newcastle and talk about how it would be designed properly – unlike the abortion they put up in 2013.

  47. Rakali says:
    Thursday, November 12, 2020 at 5:53 am

    “Make no mistake: The attempt to harness Trumpism—without Trump, but with calculated, refined, and smarter political talent—is coming. And it won’t be easy to make the next Trumpist a one-term president. He will not be so clumsy or vulnerable. He will get into office less by luck than by skill”

    I really don’t believe this.

    Daily we get daily Labor is losing because they ignore the Greens; labor should; yet Labor wins (as much as the Greens try otherwise); in Queensland the Greens managed to knock off the most progressive Labor member and they cheer. Another irrelevance.

    Trump loses, so we have to worry that a smarter Trump will win.

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