Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, but otherwise not much change in the latest Newspoll.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 at the last result four weeks ago (a longer than usual gap owing to the interuption of the Queensland election), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). The report says Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 64%, down one, but doesn’t provide disapproval (UPDATE: Up one to 32%). Anthony Albanese’s records better ratings after some weak results recently, at 43% approval (up four) and 39% disapproval (down four), but he continues to trail Morrison 58-29 as preferred prime minister, hardly changed from 57-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,548 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  4. Late Riser @ #1446 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 4:15 pm

    On covid, I’m cherry picking the time frame but in the last 28 days there were 3 reported deaths, and no deaths at all in the last 14 days. In terms of new infections, Australia’s 7 day average is close to 9 per day. (And with none coming from Victoria I wonder how Berejiklian might react if or when travel restrictions between Qld and Vic are dropped.)

    Apparently it’s all Qld’s fault.


  6. Late Riser @ #1446 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 4:15 pm
    ..
    I wonder how Berejiklian might react if or when travel restrictions between Qld and Vic are dropped.

    It would definitely be interesting if “gold standard NSW” gets itself into that position.

  8. Spray @ #1455 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 4:40 pm

    Late Riser @ #1452 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 5:30 pm

    Spray, it does. My spreadsheet doesn’t have columns for local versus quarantine, just cumulative total. It’s an idea though.

    Definitely a distinction worth making in terms of judging where we’re at.

    Absolutely. My excuse is that back when this thing started no-one was making those distinctions. It also wasn’t super relevant during the height of the 2nd wave, but now the numbers are low again I’ve been wondering if I should re-jig the sheet. So far laziness has won.

  14. I want to make a comment obliquely related to politics and organisational culture. It has been my fortune to experience Queensland’s public health system these last few weeks.

    I am profoundly impressed by the attitude and professionalism of the people working at Brisbane’s RBWH (public hospital). It’s a marvel. There is a relaxed earnest friendly attentive bustle to the place. Today’s experience was no different to my previous two visits. Even waiting in the cafeteria today between health services, staff and visitors were friendly and helpful. It was pleasant! All up my 3 separate visits to 3 different elements of the hospital I think revealed a slice of its culture. And for an organisation, culture stems from the very top. That’s where attitudes are developed and the culture derives. In Queensland our CHO is Jeannette Young. I suspect I have her to thank.

    Hence the oblique reference to the 4C report.

  15. And in a more penetrating, and poetic, look at the post mortem on the non-dead Republican Party and They The (only) People, read Fintan O’Toole –

    In 1953, after a failed uprising in Berlin, Bertolt Brecht noted in his sardonic poem “The Solution” that the authorities had declared that “the people/Had forfeited the confidence of the government”:

    …Would it not be easier
    In that case for the government
    To dissolve the people
    And elect another?

    https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/12/03/democracys-afterlife/?utm_source=nybooks&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share

  17. late riser

    For rakali
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/10/comments-by-major-on-scotland-referendum-a-wake-up-call-says-snp
    ——————-
    Thanks late riser.

    I had noted Major’s comments.

    I also note the requirement for two referendums:

    “ The former Conservative leader suggested that Westminster could agree on the basis of two linked votes, the first to vote on the principle of negotiations, and the second on the outcome of them”.

    That’s to give the Westminster government with all its taxpayer funded resources and the entire UK media two bites at the cherry. If their scare campaign didn’t work the first time they get another go.

    Whereas, the independence groups have to raise funds by donation. It’s a typical Tory cunning plan 🙂

  19. Re: USA
    The Republicans are doing all they can to slow things down and create havoc. They are not only asking for recount in Georgia they want the votes counted by hand and not by machine.
    Some are saying the real strategy is to rile up the base in Georgia so much that they will come out in huge numbers in January for the Senate vote.
    Apparently Trump has said he wants to run again in 2024 which would indicate he knows he has lost to Biden. With 55 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for Trump again even if he runs as an independent, it hard to see how anyone from the Republican side can stop him running again.

  23. Itza,
    Son #1 moving to a houseboat in Oxford to edit his first book and finish writing his second. Just renting the houseboat though. Looks nice around there.

  24. Perparim @ #1469 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 6:02 pm

    Re: USA
    The Republicans are doing all they can to slow things down and create havoc. They are not only asking for recount in Georgia they want the votes counted by hand and not by machine.
    Some are saying the real strategy is to rile up the base in Georgia so much that they will come out in huge numbers in January for the Senate vote.
    Apparently Trump has said he wants to run again in 2024 which would indicate he knows he has lost to Biden. With 55 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for Trump again even if he runs as an independent, it hard to see how anyone from the Republican side can stop him running again.

    A tad difficult to run if he’s found guilty of one of his many crimes while he spends his time in a small cell with a rather large gentleman named Ben Dover

  26. C@tmomma @ #1473 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 6:07 pm

    Itza,
    Son #1 moving to a houseboat in Oxford to edit his first book and finish writing his second. Just renting the houseboat though. Looks nice around there.

    It’s too lovely for words. We were in Oxford last year, visiting Oxford, of course, but catching up with niece (in law) and her gently sardonic wonderfully aussie leftie boy friend (from the Central Coast!) doing research on frogs and things.

  28. Douglas and Milko @ #1477 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 6:13 pm

    I am now moderately concerned that Trump is going to try and stage a coup of the 1876 variety. Rupert seems to be hedging his bets.

    First Dog has comments: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/11/trump-is-refusing-to-concede-hes-doing-a-coup?utm_term=abeb3c249bf8dd4d8fbc1b781d18d14a&utm_campaign=FirstDogOnTheMoon&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=firstdog_email

    It’s like hearing the helicopters in the distance – you know the menace is there, and it seems to be getting louder, but you’re not sure when and what exactly.

  30. ItzaDream @ #1476 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 6:12 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1473 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 6:07 pm

    Itza,
    Son #1 moving to a houseboat in Oxford to edit his first book and finish writing his second. Just renting the houseboat though. Looks nice around there.

    It’s too lovely for words. We were in Oxford last year, visiting Oxford, of course, but catching up with niece (in law) and her gently sardonic wonderfully aussie leftie boy friend (from the Central Coast!) doing research on frogs and things.

    I’ll tell him to listen out for an Aussie accent in the vicinity of frogs! 😀

  31. C@tmomma @ #1480 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 6:24 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1476 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 6:12 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1473 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 6:07 pm

    Itza,
    Son #1 moving to a houseboat in Oxford to edit his first book and finish writing his second. Just renting the houseboat though. Looks nice around there.

    It’s too lovely for words. We were in Oxford last year, visiting Oxford, of course, but catching up with niece (in law) and her gently sardonic wonderfully aussie leftie boy friend (from the Central Coast!) doing research on frogs and things.

    I’ll tell him to listen out for an Aussie accent in the vicinity of frogs! 😀

    Dave.

  34. ” A tad difficult to run if he’s found guilty of one of his many crimes while he spends his time in a small cell with a rather large gentleman named Ben Dover ”

    It’s America. Billionaires, even pretend ones, don’t go to jail. In any case Ben Dover is likely to be his Campaign Manager. With any luck he’ll choke on a Happy Meal before then.

  35. It’s like hearing the helicopters in the distance – you know the menace is there, and it seems to be getting louder, but you’re not sure when and what exactly.

    Well put Itza – this is exactly how I feel.

    Also, thanks for the Fintan O’Toole article; one of my favourite journalists / commentators.

    And, all profits from Tanya’s book / collection “Upturn” (available through UNSW press) go to the homeless.

  38. poroti @ #1486 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 5:58 pm

    The Daily Telegraph providing some LOLs

    Vics before Sydney: Gladys unloads on ‘spiteful’ QLD

    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says she is ‘mortified’ by the ‘cruel and spiteful’ notion of Queensland opening its borders to Victoria before Greater Sydney

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/border-wars-vics-before-sydney-gladys-unloads-on-spiteful-queensland/news-story/a68380fe6188ed704146a70088d286c1

    I was unaware of this when I pushed my tongue into my cheek earlier. And I’m saddened now that I can’t read the link and enjoy the LOL.

  39. Interesting take by Asha Rangappana, ex FBI, on RN just now. Asked about the removal of civilian leadership at US Defense, and replacement by Dotard cronies she said wtte:

    ‘I know them. They are lawyers and political staffers. They haven’t been sent there to start a coup or war, and in any case, the military are Uber professional and will not take an illegal order at this time.
    Rather, they have been sent in to clean up the records. Same thing happening at NSA. They don’t want incriminating evidence falling into the hands of the next Adminstration.’

  43. A great LOL headline on the Fox News website:

    SOFTBALLING BIDEN
    Reporters give president-elect kid-glove treatment, bash GOP in his first Q&A since election was called

  44. Rudy, Rudy, Rudy…

    ‘ LANSING — Donna Brydges is very much alive and playing cribbage with her husband in their home near Ludington. June Aiken of Napoleon Township is “alive and well” too — “quite well, in fact,” according to police. Same goes for William Bradley of Detroit, whose father of the same name died decades ago.

    You wouldn’t know it from social media, where supporters of President Donald Trump last week alleged voter fraud as they falsely claimed proof that Brydges, Aiken, Bradley and other Michiganders were dead but had cast ballots in the Nov. 3 election.

    Like many false fraud claims that have spread online in the last week, officials say the accusations were triggered by a series of isolated data input errors by some of Michigan’s 1,603 local and county election clerks.

    In Michigan, clerks and their election workers enter voter and ballot information in a statewide database known as the Qualified Voter File. And yes, they occasionally make mistakes, as they do in every election before they are eventually caught and rectified.

    Consider the case of Brydges: She is 75 years old, but the Qualified Voter File listed her birthdate as Jan. 1, 1901, which would have made her 119 years old, an unlikely age that fueled the pro-Trump claim that dead voters had cast ballots here.

    In reality, 1/1/1901 was a default date likely used when the township first transferred paper registration records into the computer system years ago, Hamlin Township Clerk Catherine Lewis told Bridge Michigan.

    https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/meet-michigans-dead-voters-theyre-quite-alive-despite-false-fraud-claims

  45. Joel Fitzgibbon might be concerned about Labor deserting its traditional working class base

    Facts
    Typical unionist now is female employed in nursing teaching care or clerical
    Only 13% of Fitzgibbon electorate engaged in mining
    Mining workers who are electricians, fitters, mechanics can easily transition to renewables
    Mine workers driving trucks and trains are finding their jobs are increasingly being automated
    Current coal mine workers earn high wages – FOR NOW

    But they will have to transition out of the industry

    Do I feel sorry for them, no, my work has offshored to India

  49. Jan. 1, 1901

    That’s the sort of data error that should be routinely checked in active databases. We used to call this “data grooming” after “data cleaning” garnered negative connotations. But it makes a good story. 🙂

  50. Billie

    says:
    Wednesday, November 11, 2020 at 7:11 pm
    Joel Fitzgibbon might be concerned about Labor deserting its traditional working class base

    The jobs title might be “traditional working class” but the miners’ $150-200,000 salaries left the “typical working class base” pay reservation years ago.

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