Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, but otherwise not much change in the latest Newspoll.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 at the last result four weeks ago (a longer than usual gap owing to the interuption of the Queensland election), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). The report says Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 64%, down one, but doesn’t provide disapproval (UPDATE: Up one to 32%). Anthony Albanese’s records better ratings after some weak results recently, at 43% approval (up four) and 39% disapproval (down four), but he continues to trail Morrison 58-29 as preferred prime minister, hardly changed from 57-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,548 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 29 of 31
1 28 29 30 31
  1. Oh dear. That old, go to line that Liberals love to use, ‘Union hacks’, has been trotted out. Obviously by someone who doesn’t have a clue how damn hard union reps work for their members.

  2. kakuru: “Although this rush to embrace renewables makes economic sense in the medium and long term, there are many traditional Labor voters who are deeply uneasy about the immediate consequences (including their jobs). I’ve met them. No doubt Fitzgibbon has as well – they make up a huge proportion of his electorate. These voters don’t appreciate being lectured to, Greens-style.”

    I agree with what Lizzie said – the “local bloke” Fitzgibbon could have been driving a tactful hearts and minds campaign himself, so it didn’t have to come from Canberra “greenie style”. And not only would he be helping his own electorate, he would be being a labor team player – rather than setting himself up as a martyr.

    Besides, whats your solution? Stuff the climate and Australia’s long term economic future – because its just too hard to try and convince the stick-in-the-muds to get with the program?

  3. Federal authorities arrested a Staten Island man Tuesday after he made threats against Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the FBI over the results of the 2020 presidential election.

    Prosecutors said in a criminal complaint that Brian Maiorana turned to social media over the weekend after President-elect Joe Biden was declared the victor of the White House race to issue the threats, citing the anti-government novel “The Turner Diaries,” in which people of color and Jews are killed, and saying he would “blow up” an FBI building. He also issued a threat against “the Jew Senator from Jew York,” an apparent reference to Schumer.

    The Justice Department said Maiorana was arrested in a Tuesday morning raid in Staten Island and appeared in a Brooklyn federal court. He is charged with making threatening interstate communication.

  4. The person said Trump plans to keep fighting but understands it is going to be difficult. “He is all over the place. It changes from hour to hour,” the person said.

    Have they taken the button away from Trump yet?

  5. UK:

    The NHS has been instructed to prepare for mass Covid-19 vaccination of the public from December 1, in one of the biggest immunisation drives in British history.

    The plans will see up to 1,500 GP practices and drive-through centres ordered to open every day from 8am to 8pm, each dispensing at least 1,000 jabs a week – meaning there will be capacity for at least one million doses to be administered weekly.

    Health officials said on Tuesday that the NHS would be ready to deliver the jabs as quickly as they can be supplied, with medical and nursing students, and retired medics, being drafted in to help.

    Ten million doses of Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine are due to be delivered by the end of this year, as long as regulatory approval is granted.

  6. Expat
    “It just happens that people who are educated and give a shit about the future of Australia and the world in general lean left!”

    Yes, and certainly the COALition pursues “low information voters” with the same relish as One Nation. But Labor does need to know what this group is thinking if they want to get elected.

  7. “There is a constant rumble that Tania Plibersek should be the next leader. I thought Tania had dismissed that.”

    No. Just No. How many nanoseconds would it take for News to focus on the husband and his past crimes? That and the fact that she is simply not good enough. Nice. Intelligent. But unelectable.

    The only alternatives are Chalmers or for Albanese to lift his game. Significantly. If the argument is that he is fighting internal battles, as has been suggested and the evidence from yesterday seems to confirm it, then all he is doing is telling the electorate that Labor isn’t ready for government. It’s not that the electorate isn’t receptive to that message. Remember what Hawke said about not being able to govern themselves? Just as applicable today.

    It comes down to Albanese starting to act like an opposition leader and not simply wave through every LNP brainfart – like Cormann’s international pantomimes. If he can’t step up, and I see zero evidence over the past eighteen months that he has it in him, then maybe it is time to clear the decks and go nuclear. And that includes getting rid of that pustulating ulcer, Fitzgibbon. If they are going to go down, go down fighting.

  8. not defending Bannon, but clearly his rant about wanting heads on pikes medieval style – while tasteless – can hardly be considered threatening.

  9. Re Fitzgibbon, Albo, etc.

    Best news from my point of view is

    1. Fitzgibbon on the backbench.
    2. Husic back on the frontbench.

    Re the idea of getting rid of Albo. I can’t see much to choose between Albo and Chalmers in terms of electability. I guess Albo has a bit more charisma. But, many see the fact that Chalmers possesses a Queensland birth certificate as critically important: I guess that might be worth experimenting with. Although it never seemed to help Bill Hayden all that much.

    Personally, I prefer Husic and Clare O’Neil to either of them.

  10. Ignore the betwetters – the next election is eminently winnable for Labor, with Albo at the helm.

    Lets just wait for the cut in jobseeker to sink in for a start.

  11. “But, many see the fact that Chalmers possesses a Queensland birth certificate as critically important”

    I still don’t understand the obsession with QLD.

    There are at least half a dozen trendy urban seats in Victoria and NSW that labor could win and should have won in 2019 – which would easily give them government. Dare I say that Labor’s fence sitting on climate is the reason they don’t have those seats today.

  12. south @ #1389 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 3:04 pm

    Free thoughts for all,

    Labor are bleeding voters because they don’t stand for anything significant that is shared by enough people. A lot of people pay tax. And the government is loose with their money, through incompetence and corruption. Being pissed off about wasted money is a shared thing. Being a union hack isn’t

    Corruption is not a Fair shake of the sauce bottle. It’s not a fair go…

    Labor can fight, and win. It needs to pick battles that are harder for the government to fight on. Sexism, Corruption. Being old ,and out of step with the future. These are good topics.

    TW, QT on the middle days is always a let down. It’s been a let down for a few years now actually.

    I wouldn’t underestimate the electoral value of Labors Howard-esque cash bribe via childcare.

    If Fitzgibbon wins over the Qld/NSW fossil fuel puppets in the caucus and topples Albo, Labor might have a winning chance.

    But then what… ?

  13. Some bludgers were spruiking labor’s prospects of winning Christian Porter’s seat in WA last election. I wonder if it might actually be in play next election.

  14. Big A Adrian

    Ignore the betwetters

    We were told that before the last election. Perhaps a bit of listening to ‘bedwetters’ back then may have helped ?

  15. “I wouldn’t underestimate the electoral value of Labors Howard-esque cash bribe via childcare.”

    Personally, I wouldn’t understimate the electoral value of just having a clear, simple and believable position on climate action. I fancy there are a whole host of leafy suburban Melbourne and Sydney seats that might just fall like dominoes.

    No one will give a shit about ignorant hicks in outback QLD then.

  16. “Were told that before the last election. Perhaps a bit of listening to ‘bedwetters’ back then may have helped ?”

    more than likely poroti.

    The difference then though was that the partisans here (and fair to say labor people more broadly) were wallowing in their own hubris. Sad to say, but true.

    These days the partisans are far more circumspect – and rightly so. However it shouldn’t be to the point where they dismiss completely Labor’s very real prospects with Albo. There are but a couple of poll points in it. Its actually very close, and signs are its narrowing. Its quite conceivable that Albo is gaining ground. Yet here we are, calling for his head in panic. Sigh.

  17. Big A Adrian @ #1415 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 3:49 pm

    “I wouldn’t underestimate the electoral value of Labors Howard-esque cash bribe via childcare.”

    Personally, I wouldn’t understimate the electoral value of just having a clear, simple and believable position on climate action. I fancy there are a whole host of leafy suburban Melbourne and Sydney seats that might just fall like dominoes.

    No one will give a shit about ignorant hicks in outback QLD then.

    A Joel Fitzgibbon led Labor party will have a clear, simple and believable position on climate action.

    That and the bribe – he might be headed to the Lodge.

  18. ‘Although it never seemed to help Bill Hayden all that much.’

    Its been acknowledge Hayden probably would have won the 1983 election. It was unlikely though he would have won it by as much as Bob Hawke did and would have stayed Prime Minster as long as Hawke did as though.

    Your right though Hayden only gained 2 QLD seats in the 1980 election. Hawke gained 5 QLD seats the following election from 1983. QLD is funny though, the longer Hawke stayed Prime Minster the more they got to like him the opposite to the honeymoon period.

    The 1987 and 1990 elections Hawke did well in QLD with a couple external factors that helped him. In 1987 the Joh for PM campaign, and 1990 the anger of the Fitzgerald inquiry continued on to the federal election. The vote for Labor federally in QLD in 1990 was higher then the national average which is a rarity for Labor federally.

  19. Chewer:

    If for some reason, Trump doesn’t step down and doesn’t get Pence to pardon him before Jan 20, that leaves the Democrats with a powerful threat. Hey Mitch, if you don’t pass these reforms, we’ll prosecute Trump!

    If Mr Trump IS pardoned, he loses his right to Fifth Amendment protection against self-incrimination. He can be subpoenaed by the HoR and cannot refuse to answer questions. Of course, whether HoR actually wants to question him is another (political) matter entirely

  20. Nick McKenzie
    @Ageinvestigates
    ·
    24m
    BREAKING: Big news. Alleged war criminal Ben Roberts-Smith VC ordered by judge to disclose files he fought hard to keep secret. They detail adverse findings made by war crime probe. RS’ own defamation action has now outed himself as Brereton inquiry and AFP target. Stunning.

  21. Rex has a point on child care because if the ALP can avoid making itself the issue then a proactive child care policy could play well in seats like Higgins which has more women than man.

  22. Political Nightwatchman @ #1392 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 2:53 pm

    NSW state Labor behavior before they lost government of toppling premiers at a whim is not what I call ‘go down fighting’.

    NSW is a separate issue – it remains an unelectable basket case. I don’t know how else they can fix it than just wait a decade or two till everyone involved in the unspeakable levels of corruption has died and gone to hell.

    But federally, Labor is redeemable – just not perhaps for the coming election.

    But it has the choice of “going down fighting” – i.e. publicly supporting a science-based, ethical, logical and sustainable platform of policies that will stand the test of time and that will end up attracting voters, perhaps even as soon as the next election – or going down ignobly with an unethical, unscientific, illogical and unsustainable platform that will have to be fought over all over again, and which won’t attract anybody … ever.

    Not a difficult choice, I would have thought … but then I am not a gibbon.

  23. Sarah Hanson-Young
    @sarahinthesen8
    ·
    11m
    Breaking: The Senate has agreed to establish an Inquiry into media diversity following the record breaking petition promoted by
    @MrKRudd
    .

    Australians have become increasingly concerned about the concentration of media ownership and the power and political influence of Murdoch.

  24. Rex,
    That IGADF report is going to shake the ADF to it’s core. Possibly 60 prosecutions. And then everyone will wake up to the question of why the fuck the ADF has been in Afghanistan for 15 years.

  25. Samantha Ratnam – Leader of the Victorian Greens
    @SamanthaRatnam · 38m
    BREAKING: Parliament just voted YES to our motion for a #GreenNewDeal for Victoria (22-15)
    This is the first time a Green New Deal has been formally endorsed in Australia. The next step is to ensure the government follows through in the upcoming state budget. #springst

  26. Judging by the commentary over at Fox News, it appears that Murdoch hasn’t parted ways just yet with Trump. Sean, Tucker, Laua, Greg, et al are still going hard on the false premise that there was widespread “cheating” in the election. Time to make that call, Rupes!

  27. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, November 11, 2020 at 4:29 pm
    Sarah Hanson-Young
    @sarahinthesen8
    ·
    11m
    Breaking: The Senate has agreed to establish an Inquiry into media diversity following the record breaking petition promoted by
    @MrKRudd
    .

    Australians have become increasingly concerned about the concentration of media ownership and the power and political influence of Murdoch.

    ———————-

    Looks promising, Labor needs to get into government and watch the newsltd and pro coalition media hacks squirm

  28. Rudy W. Giuliani
    @RudyGiuliani
    · 48m
    Today the @realDonaldTrump campaign sued to invalidate hundreds of thousands of fraudulent ballots in the Western District of Michigan.

    First PA, then Michigan will go to Trump.

    Affidavits will be published tomorrow.

    You will be shocked.

    😆

  29. Brexit is warming up again.

    Has time run out for a post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and the EU?
    https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/9/brexit-endgame-uks-johnson-faces-legacy-defining-week

    Biden as president elect means Johnson needs to pull his finger out.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/10/brexit-deal-boris-johnson-eu-negotiations

    Meanwhile NI is getting set to blame the EU if they run low of food.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/10/checks-on-supermarket-food-from-britain-not-needed-insists-northern-ireland

    While the RoI is trying to make it easier. (When I read this I wonder when the EU will start saying that the EU never wanted this. Britain wanted this.)
    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1110/1177234-eu-brexit-northern-ireland/

    And the UK has only days left to replace the dozens of trade deals they had with other countries by virtue of being in the EU.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/10/brexit-uk-trade-department-faces-race-to-get-80bn-of-trade-agreements-ratified

    For rakali
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/10/comments-by-major-on-scotland-referendum-a-wake-up-call-says-snp

  30. Spray
    SA hanging on like grim death at 7/357. Ferguson and Neilson put on a 200 partnership before Fergusson was out for 97 in his last ever first class innings.

  31. On covid, I’m cherry picking the time frame but in the last 28 days there were 3 reported deaths, and no deaths at all in the last 14 days. In terms of new infections, Australia’s 7 day average is close to 9 per day. (And with none coming from Victoria I wonder how Berejiklian might react if or when travel restrictions between Qld and Vic are dropped.)

  32. Yes, excellent comeback by the SACA’s. I really admire them for persevering with Pope, but at this rate it might be doing him more harm than good.

  33. And yeah, what a shame for Fergusson. Hadn’t realised he was hanging up his boots.

    Wow, talk about a career that could have been. One really unfortunately-timed injury.

  34. Late Riser @ #1446 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 5:15 pm

    On covid, I’m cherry picking the time frame but in the last 28 days there were 3 reported deaths, and no deaths at all in the last 14 days. In terms of new infections, Australia’s 7 day average is close to 9 per day. (And with none coming from Victoria I wonder how Berejiklian might react if or when travel restrictions between Qld and Vic are dropped.)

    LR, that average must include hotel quarantine. Very few local cases in the last week, just that (hopefully) small Moss Vale cluster.

  35. ‘Joel Fitzgibbon is concerned that Labor is alienating its traditional “blue collar, working class” base by concentrating on inner-city voters and their concerns about the environment.
    That shows how far Jolly Joel has drifted from changing reality in recent times. Surely, Labor’s base also includes these same inner-city and suburban workers who may not work in mining, but who are worried about the future if nothing is done to address climate change.
    In any case, not all blue collar workers, not even most, are employed in the mining industry. Many of them are also concerned about climate change.
    If Labor were to adopt the government’s so-called emissions-reduction policy – 26% by 2030 and no target beyond that – it might satisfy a few of Fitzgibbon’s constituents in the mining industry. If Labor also decided to go along with Morrison’s gas expansion plan, it might delight a few people who can’t see a future for themselves outside old industries.
    But it would also sure as hell alienate a lot of existing Labor supporters and probably lead to mass resignations from the party. I could easily see the Greens finally capturing a lot of traditional Labor seats.’

    @Sir Henry Parkes

    Yeah well this argument that Labor should have gone harder on climate change last federal election doesn’t really make sense- considering the LNP won a swag of seats in the cities and the outer suburbs of Brisbane. The other argument that Labor should write off the regions and concentrate on cities and the outer suburbs is also rubbish. There are just too many winnable seats that need to be won in the regions particularly in Queensland. And those regional and rural seats also contribute to Labor’s senate vote.

    The suggestion Labor would have won a whole swag of seats in Brisbane and the outer suburbs if it had shut Adani is nonsense. Lets face it the last federal election was blow for the environmental movement. The fact Annastasia Palaszczuk at the state election held on to all Labor seats in the regions is the realty after going ahead with Adani. Yeah she lost one seat to the Greens in inner city Brisbane, and it was on the back of LNP preferences. But she still maintained State Labor’s dominance in the cities and the outer suburbs of Brisbane.

    The Greens vote didn’t exactly surge statewide dropping 0.5% which puts into question your statement ‘Greens finally capturing a lot of traditional Labor seats’.

Comments Page 29 of 31
1 28 29 30 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *