Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 at the last result four weeks ago (a longer than usual gap owing to the interuption of the Queensland election), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). The report says Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 64%, down one, but doesn’t provide disapproval (UPDATE: Up one to 32%). Anthony Albanese’s records better ratings after some weak results recently, at 43% approval (up four) and 39% disapproval (down four), but he continues to trail Morrison 58-29 as preferred prime minister, hardly changed from 57-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1510.
Zerlo @ #25 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:27 am
The UK has Keir Starmer….. Booris is a cooked goose.
Mavis
So Birmo has been sent out to carpet-bomb the media to defend the indefensible. What a good little servant he is.
poroti @ #36 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:52 am
Yes and no.
The polls predicted a Biden win.
Biden won.
A power block/faction in need of a figurehead ? Gladys sounds ideal for the position.
mundo
As in a weather forecaster predicting torrential rain with floods then after receiving just a few showers claims “It rained. I nailed it”
frednk @ #4 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 10:10 pm
Polls predicted a Biden win.
Biden won.
poroti @ #48 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:15 am
Not really.
Biden won.
He’s not a little bit elected. He’s not half pregnant.
mundo says:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 9:17 am
frednk @ #4 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 10:10 pm
Given another poll failure in the USA one has to start asking why do they bother.
Polls predicted a Biden win.
Biden won.
Polls predicted a land slide, didn’t happen. Out by about 4%. I’m not saying the US is easy, but that is the facts.
The USA will have a president that can string more than two words together, that in itself is a step in the right direction.
I understand that the New Bidonists of NSW (Gladys, The Barilaro Broz, Keen Kean, Pater Dominic et al.) are now pushing through a plan for NSW to become a sustainable superpower on the back of a state-of-the-con koala-fired power station, with Snowy 3.0 (peak load shedding by putting culled brumbies through penstocks). Scummo from Marketing is still n hiding.
Probably as expected, Morrison is trying to big note himself by publicly “inviting” Biden to visit Australia next September to celebrate 70 years of ANZUS.
What a great opportunity to use the visit of a US president to try and boost himself. Perhaps he thinks it will divert attention from the huge gulf now between the US and Australia on measures to combat global warming.
Anyway, why should a tokenistic celebration of ANZUS be held in Australia? Why not New Zealand which has a government more aligned with critical policies of a Biden administration? Or in the US itself?
I think I can pretty safely predict there will not be a State Dinner for Scotty from Oz Evangelicals in this term of government in the US. And Brian Houston can put away the tux. 🙂
Cud,
agree about Obama but am relieved that maybe we have turned a corner to first stability and then progress.
Missed your Covid posts…wonder what you think about the current situ in Oz.
lizzie:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 9:09 am
[‘So Birmo has been sent out to carpet-bomb the media to defend the indefensible. What a good little servant he is.’]
Yes to both your points. Simon’s developed pollie-speak into an art form. But pressure will be put on Morrison to do the right thing.
Anyway, why should a tokenistic celebration of ANZUS be held in Australia? Why not New Zealand which has a government more aligned with critical policies of a Biden administration? Or in the US itself?
Because there’s one thing you can always count on, Scotty from Marketing will always be the first in line sidling up to bask in the reflected glory of those he sees as advantageous wrt burnishing his credentials.
frednk @ #59 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 6:29 am
Plus Americans and the rest of the world can take comfort from no more trash talking US allies while praising its opponents. The adults will return to the WH.
BK @ #47 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:01 am
Oh!! It’s a process that’s probably best to leave in your normal way.
I use a program “Snagit” to capture a video of the .gif in action and the program can then convert that to a .gif – which I then upload to
https://gifyu.com/
Where one can drag and drop and the .gif will be processed and various posting addresses given.
There is probably a simpler way of doing things – maybe others can assist with this please.
Wonderful “all’s right with the world” day to go mowing.
I’m looking at other methods and will post – probably tomorrow morning.
I heard someone on RN this morning say that pollsters got it wrong due to shy Trump supporters. He’s probably right for if you support him you also (implicitly at least) support racism, sexism, etc, etc.
Maybe I’ll watch it, then.
https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/1325566434718539776
Privately commissioned YouGov poll for VIC.
TPP ALP 55 (-2.3) L/NP 45 (+2.3 since 2018 election)
Primary ALP 44 (+1.1) L/NP 40 (+4.8) GRN 11 (+0.3) OTH 5 (-6.2)
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/majority-of-victorians-think-its-fair-to-blame-daniel-andrews-for-the-failed-hotel-quarantine-poll/news-story/d3d9c1cdbc84a4d3a6d3e92431910a85 ($) #springst
tables https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2542fd027a5d84f77399301c74c6248d
More VIC YouGov poll supplementary covid topic question tables below. You should be able to open the cdn links with no paywall problems. You might be able to open the HS article if you open my tweet, then click the link via that.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/dab2b413f0c5823b58af3648dc620b1f
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/bc09a3f49ba907c9d0d297565f79bde6
The article doesn’t say who paid for the poll, I presume it was a business group.
Mavis @ #68 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 6:40 am
I think it was the 538 team who suggested a few days ago it was because pollsters didn’t weight appropriately for education. They understated the sample in 2016 and this year people were thinking if anything they’d overstate it in their efforts to correct on last time around. But still haven’t quite got it right.
wombat we just need to round up all the koalas and lot-feed them (maybe we could plant a forest specially for harvesting of gum leaves) and then use the koala poo for energy.
Solves several problems 🙂
Greg Brown in the Oz.
Joel is starting to remind me of a skeleton twisting on a gibbet.
Mavis @ #67 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:40 am
Which bit did pollsters get wrong?
The bit where Trump won?
Pretty sure the polls picked up on the 5 million odd margin in voter sentiment between Dotard and Sleepy Joe.
There is probably a simpler way of doing things – maybe others can assist with this please.
Anything that begins with https:// and ends with .gif can be posted here directly when you Copy Image Address on the gif itself.
For example, I just put Donald Trump Loser gif into google and it came up with heaps like this:
Also, you can get a link to gifs on giffy etc. Which you can post here.
Twitter gifs you just have to click on Copy Video.
However, as far as one of Glen Le Lievre’s gifs you probably have to follow KayJay’s instructions. They are hard nuts to crack! Let’s see. 😀
lizzie @ #64 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:50 am
Could someone put Labor out of its Fitzgibbon misery!?!
On the eve of the election 538’s prediction was…’Biden is favoured to win the election’
Numbers, statistics, percentages, potions and tea leaves aside, you can’t get closer than that.
The only pollster that got it really wrong was blind freddy’s tommy institute
Just listened to Hugh Riminton and PvO’s latest podcast and was surprised to hear both of them refer to Donald Trump as a “piece of shit” and other characterisations 😆
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/episode-76-a-new-president/id1459844929?i=1000497607718
Vogon Poet @ #70 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:05 am
I sure as hell won’t be parting with my hard-earned to take poll prediction lessons there. 😆
mundo @ #78 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:00 am
From 538s final poll;
Trump might be able to overcome this with a disproportionately high Republican turnout. But while Republican turnout might be very high, Democratic turnout almost certainly will be too, as evidenced by, among other things: Democrats’ equal or higher enthusiasm level in polls; their very high numbers in early and absentee voting, and their greater fundraising prowess throughout the cycle.
Again, this is not to deny that Trump will turn out his voters, too. Our model projects overall turnout in the race to be a record setting 158 million, with an 80th percentile range between 147 million and 168 million. But if persuadable voters and independents are mostly flipping to the other party, you need your turnout to be high and for the other party’s to be low to have much of a shot, and that latter condition doesn’t appear likely for Trump.
Still, 10 percent chances happen, there’s never been an election quite like this one and this isn’t a moment that anybody should be taking anything for granted. We hope you’ll follow our coverage for as long as it takes to determine who won.’
Not bad, really.
Wish I’d had more confidence in 538 and less in Dr Blind Freddie of the Tommy Institute, Dept. of the Bleeding Obvious.
Thanks C@t
It all looks to be a bit too time consuming for me when I’m working on a tight morning deadline.
Vogon Poet @ #79 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:05 am
You’re right about that Vogo.
I tell you what though, because I wasn’t expecting it, Bidens win delivered exponentially more bang for my poll bludging buck!
Dr Blind Freddie should stick to Strayan politics where he’s on safer ground and knows where all the furniture is.
Confessions:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 9:45 am
[‘I think it was the 538 team who suggested a few days ago it was because pollsters didn’t weight appropriately for education. They understated the sample in 2016 and this year people were thinking if anything they’d overstate it in their efforts to correct on last time around. But still haven’t quite got it right.’]
Weighting the education of respondents is arguably a significant factor. It would seem that the education level of Trump supporters isn’t high, somewhat evidenced by the number of non-college white males who voted for him. In one poll I saw just before the election (ABC News/Washpo), Biden’s lead in Wisconsin was 17 percent, whereas Biden’s actual vote was 49.4; Trump’s, 48.8 – almost a draw.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/28/poll-joe-biden-lead-wisconsin-433181
Confessions @ #80 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 7:07 am
I’ve got quite a bit of time for Hugh, PvO on the other hand is a piece of it himself and it is very him be tough against someone who has been beaten soundly. I bet you can’t find a long history over the last 4 years of PvO calling out Trump and the Trumpers in the Australian Govt.
mundo:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 9:55 am
[‘Which bit did pollsters get wrong?’]
See my post to Confessions for an example.
‘Joel Fitzgibbon slams “delusional” Left faction MPs for using Joe Biden’s US election victory as a clarion call for “courageous” climate policies.’
***
Considering Biden is a right winger who plans to keep vandalising the environment by allow fracking to continue, Fitzgibbon is right in a way, but just not in the way he thinks.
WeWantPaul @ #86 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:18 am
PVO has done more “calling out” of the Morrison grifters than almost any other member of the mainstream media.
Mavis:
You could also argue that education was a significant factor in Trump’s vote with Latinos and Black American men. I think it was the Lincoln Project who made that observation the other day.
I think a possible factor in the US polls being off is that Trump supporters were increasingly told not to trust the media, pollsters, and institutions in general. So its not necessarily about being shy about who you support when asked, many may not do surveys at all under any circumstances. US polling response rates are falling across the board (see below), but it may be falling faster in the GOP.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/
WWP:
In my reading of PvO’s columns over the last few years I can say with certainty that he is no fan of Trump.
BK @ #83 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:08 am
Yes indeedy. There are a couple of methods with Glen Le Lievre .gif images but as you say – time consuming and best left to readers to click on the link.
I’ve found a simpler method with Glen Le Lievre .gif images but still a time and tide effort. Involves
https://ezgif.com/
Good morning all. Back to mowing. 🌷🌷🌷
Quasar one thing I love about Brett Sutton is that if you ask him the right question, he’s prepared to be open, honest and scientific. Check this out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbvxo0RmmYA
Especially from 26:47 to 28:11
Its not the first time that he’s made it clear that he would like to see elimination occur.
Also, going back a little while we have..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtjMLngd-to
From 35:56 to 36:02
“And the consequence of not being able to hold it back, if you’re lifting too early, have already played out in Victoria”.
Which isn’t far removed from saying directly “Victoria eased restrictions too early in May”.
Also, continue viewing to 38:32 where Daniel Andrews sticks it to Greg Hunt
General reflections. Its all about those individuals who are infectious and haven’t been tested. I’m absolutely confident that there are fewer of those in Melbourne than there are in Sydney. But we wont’ know if Victoria has been successful in elimination for some weeks. (I’ll start feeling a lot happier when they get to 28 days).
There is a golden opportunity for Victoria to test all plane arrivals from Sydney. This is something that should have been happening Australia wide. If interstate travel/tourism is such a big part of our economy (it isn’t really) then its not unreasonable to test interstate air travellers. So trialling it on Sydney to Melbourne might set a good precedent. I can hope.
From McGowan’s Facebook page.
Confessions @ #92 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 7:24 am
He is smart enough, aside from his little Nazi’s were socialists melt down, which was very Hildebrand in maturity and intelligence, to not like Trump, Morrison, Abbott, but he still does a lot of stuff they would like.
Leroy @ #90 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:23 am
When all is said and done, pollsters got to make a living and feed their families, and Trump got beaten.
Win, win.
And all those who predicted a Biden win, no matter the margin or method. Got. It. Right.
For what it’s worth, Labor will win next year. 102 seats. Put your house on it.
Can bat…
183* runs
302 balls
25 fours
Will Pucovski, who made a scintillating 255* in his first 2020 #SheffieldShield outing, has carried forward his form into the second game.
One of Australia’s #BrightLights
lol Mundo
Good Morning.
People identify as conservative because that’s what the media tells them they are.
However look at election results from the US.
$15 minimum wage.
Restoring voting rights to ex felons.
Increased voter turnout because not despite Black Lives Matter including Defund the Police campaigns and riots.
Ending the war on drugs.
The US is not radical left but it’s not the conservative place that loser John Kasich pretends it is.
This is how Democrats let Donald Trump in. His con was to promise better healthcare and workers rights than the Democrats were offering.
It was not “Identity Politics” it was not trans or black people’s fault that Trump got elected or retained a lot of support.
Imagine if the Democrats had gone with Decriminalising Drugs.
We know in several states the Democrats lost in they would have had support due to that issue.
I have deliberately not put data in here go look it up for yourself.
Understand the propaganda that is being used here that is imported from the right to demonise the left to stop the economic measures that moderates not the far left want.
Look at the Fox News Poll run during the campaign that shows 46% of Republicans support Bernie Sanders Medicare for All plan.
Understand that losers like John Kasich and Claire McKaskull lost for being too far right.
Then think about how that’s happened here in Australia.
Don’t be afraid to have good policy.
Best example is Australia of this is the Marriage Equality survey.
We were told that conservative voters in far North Queensland would reject that equality.
It turned out that it was voters in city areas that were high no vote areas.
So Labor don’t listen to the LNP or their media supporters telling you what to do. Instead look at how you get your marginal seat voters to support good progressive policy.
They are persuadable.
FredNK and Andrew Earlwood have said no they are not because hip pocket nerve.
Buying into the conservative mantra on climate change.
Sell Renewables creates jobs and tell the truth about the bleak future for coal. Do it today before the election so voters know and thus are not low information voters.
Campaign today for the election. It’s what I see the LNP doing every day.