Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 at the last result four weeks ago (a longer than usual gap owing to the interuption of the Queensland election), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). The report says Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 64%, down one, but doesn’t provide disapproval (UPDATE: Up one to 32%). Anthony Albanese’s records better ratings after some weak results recently, at 43% approval (up four) and 39% disapproval (down four), but he continues to trail Morrison 58-29 as preferred prime minister, hardly changed from 57-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1510.
Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition
Improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, but otherwise not much change in the latest Newspoll.
Fortunately, in WA Fitzgibbon carries no weight at all. We are moving on without him.
mundo:
More generally on political pollsters, their job is not to simply call a winner: it’s to provide evidence to support their prediction. A lot hangs off this, including decisions on how much money & resources should be allocated to a particular state, not to mention the betting market, the Wisconsin example clearly demonstrating how wrong some got it. You’d probably be better off consulting a clairvoyant.
WWP:
I think your characterisation of people’s views is too black and white, too ‘if this, then that’ in logic.
On the US election, I was listening to CNN yesterday and an analyst was being interviewed.
One thing he pointed out was that there were more independents voting and these were the ones that were voting against Trump but then voting conservative further down the ballot. One of the confounding variables that the pollsters didn’t take into account.
The hard core Trump supporters also turned out to vote more and predictably voted more evenly (Trump + Republican). Again, the pollsters have it hard when it comes to modelling turnout. I for one felt that because Trump’s supporters had been so heavily “energised” in the last election, that that particular pool had been drained, but I was wrong there – there were still more Trumpists that were turned out to vote this time. I dare say those that a lot of these won’t be seen again.
Which gives me a little bit of hope in the Senate run off elections. Rates of turn out only need to shift a couple of percentage points to win it for the Democrats. Problem is the Democrats now only have weeks to fix the flaws in their campaigning.
Confessions:
Monday, November 9, 2020 at 10:22 am
Yes, that too.
Also, the way that Trump dominated everything and even the Democrats stepping back, not arguing policy and instead just making it a referendum on Trump, didn’t do the Democrats any favours when it came to Senate/House votes. A lot of people are still willing to vote Republican on issues like tax and the Dems didn’t really do enough work to sell their jobs and infrastructure policies.
Confessions @ #103 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 7:38 am
Thanks for that, I think. PvO wouldn’t ever make that mistake, he’d have a number of takes before landing on the conservative side strongly. Some don’t even notice him doing it.
This is something I suggested last week that had happened. These elections people were able to vote against Trump while still voting for Republicans in other jurisdictions, including the Senate and House.
I don’t know how this will play out but the “moderate” faction of the ACT Liberals will challenge Seselja (hard right) in preselection for his Senate position.
Urgh.. I’ve had a hangover like 2 or 3 times in my life..
Whatever else one might say, the most ominous number (currently) from the USA stuff is: Donald Trump 70,831,096 votes!
FredNk,
the polls in the USA didn’t account for turnout. That’s the thing, There was a blue wave. that crashed into a red wave.
south @ #107 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:48 am
Actually 538 predicted it. Forecast 158 million votes and a huge turnout on both sides.
Cud
People label themselves conservative in polls. If you look at the issues not so much.
Look at Trump’s Florida.
Referendums got felons voting rights and a $15 minimum wage.
Progressives including the communist ones would have fully supported Biden campaigning on those issues.
Independents are not conservative. That’s a narrative device of the political class. Instead they are the radical outsiders who have not joined a political tribe.
Look at how people voted on issues in areas defined by labels as conservative and see the reality. That way you get past the narrative that progressive issues are vote losers at the ballot box.
We have voter results from elections telling us it’s not the case.
Until Labor starts looking at stuff like that they are going to continue to be defeated in elections.
If you are convinced you are campaigning on a losing issue you will lose elections.
Well, 5.5 million Australian votes voted for this bloke
“Real Mark Latham
@RealMarkLatham
·
Nov 5
The tattoo on the face of the new Kiwi Foreign Minister is very ugly, but for saying that a NZ author has had her books banned by an online publishing mob.
Can’t burn them, so taken down online.
No limit to these elites and their sneering censorship for statements of truth.”
guytaur are the Dems going to win the Senate run off races? If so, why?
Anyone know what this is about?
Sally Neighbour
@neighbour_s
The political pressure applied to the ABC behind the scenes over this story has been extreme and unrelenting. All credit to the ABC’s leadership for withstanding it. ‘Inside the Canberra Bubble’, tonight on #4Corners
Cud chewer
Good to see you around!
The answer to Georgia hopefully turning blue is primarily all due to the work of Stacey Abrams.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/07/us/stacey-abrams-georgia-voter-suppression-trnd/index.html
538 got Florida and North Carolina (probably) wrong. And Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. They got every other state and district right, including Arizona and Georgia which are being reported as surprising gains.
The popular vote margin is heading northward of 5 million. I don’t think the pollsters’ performance was all that bad.
Hi Victoria 🙂
Rumours of my assimilation by the Borg were untrue..
Spray no the polls weren’t terribly wrong. But some people were voting Republican down ballot (for reasons I just discussed). Dems need to argue their case for reform with the “independent” voters.
Cud chewer
That’s good to know. Lol!
CC
Yes.
Corruption.
Voters are not being represented.
Orsoff already has a good viral video out there.
Also remember Cory Bush won election in Deep South Territory Mississippi on Medicare for All.
Katie Porter did the same in a purple state.
The narrative we keep getting told by losers like Kasich is just not supported by evidence.
It doesn’t mean radical socialist policies are going to be accepted. However the policies I have pointed to are in fact moderate by US standards as determined by polling in the US. They are just called radical far left by the media and political class.
Stacey Abrahams The Sunrise Movement and socialist groups are already talking to their voters. In fact one of those groups was out with clipboards to register voters who were celebrating Trump’s defeat.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/transport-mega-projects-unnecessary-wasteful-report-finds-20201107-p56ce5.html
Hi Cud. Didn’t see your post above. Yeah, that pretty much sums it up I think.
This election was all about Trump. That was never going to (necessarily) transfer to down-ballot choices.
Victoria
4 Corners tonight with expose on inappropriate behaviour by cabinet minister at party in Manuka
Victoria
I believe 4C will be an exposé of some of the skullduggery behind the scene in Canberra. There was political pressure on the ABC to stop it. That says something!
lizzie what was that stupid Age headline based on?
lizzie @ #126 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:05 am
This is why we don’t have nice things.
Could be another “national zero” day today.
lizzie CC
It looks like someone got a bit carried away after hearing……..
.
‘Smart-masking’ floated by epidemiologists in Victoria
Two prominent Melbourne epidemiologists say Victoria could transition to ‘smart-masking’, where masks are only worn in high-risk locations, like on public transport…………….Deakin University epidemiologist Catherine Bennett said she was in favour of mask use in enclosed spaces and in situations where people can’t keep a good distance, instead of Victoria’s current broad mask rules.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-australia-recorded-no-local-transmission-cases-global-infections-exceed-50-million-australian-death-toll-stands-at-907-20201109-p56coj.html
Based on the polls, the popular vote for Biden will increase. So far it’s at approx 75 million.
Meanwhile covid numbers are increasing quite dramatically as well. Remember the orange idiot was suggesting that after the election, covid would disappear.
I saw very quickly from the get go, that anything Trump ever said, you can bank it on being the opposite.
And anything he has accused others of is purely projection.
His accusations of cheating in the election is a case in point.
There are countless examples.
And frankly I believe some of his crimes are abhorrent should they ever be exposed.
A reminder.
The narrative in the US about masks is the same import the Murdoch press ran in Victoria.
Trump tried to do Abbott on Climate Change. I suspect Murdoch advice.
Shellbell/lizzie
Interesting. Thanks.
If there is not market it matters very little what Joel Fitzgibbon says. We would do better for his electorate if he started dealing with reality and helped formulate policies that deal with it.
I see Firefox is also trying to hold reality back, both of them will fail. The Greens would do us all a service if they to started dealing with reality and helped formulate policies that deal with it instead of pretending they have to screw labor to stop coal usage.
The CHO in Victoria has already suggested that they are looking at transitioning mask wearing for public transport, hospitals, aged care and enclosed settings.
So basically outdoor wearing of masks may no longer be a thing in a few weeks time.
The Editor of the Age is being told to go back and read the article more carefully!
Spray @ #115 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 10:59 am
I agree. As I’ve been arguing all morning.
Cud Chewer @ #104 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:40 am
Thgat would be a mistake. They need to keep the focus on Trump’s tantrums and fraudulent claims about how the election is fraudulent. Tar the GOP with all of his undignified, sore-loser BS.
That’s how you win the runoffs.
lizzie @ #138 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:11 am
I think it is europe that has a levy, at purchase time, that they use to fund the recycling. Left to the market it is too expensive to collect the panels let alone invest in recycling them.
Does anyone feel a need to vomit ? Well you are in luck. Have some Ghunt .
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-australia-recorded-no-local-transmission-cases-global-infections-exceed-50-million-australian-death-toll-stands-at-907-20201109-p56coj.html
Sad to say, screwing Labor is daily business for the Greens. This is an existential necessity for them.
WeWantPaul
I thought that some new developments in solar technology were using flexible alternatives to glass, or various other applications. Perhaps instead of running out of glass, there will be a move away.
Briefly
Sad to say you run the Murdoch attack lines everyday.
Then you wonder why Labor loses elections when they are stupid enough to listen to you.
poroti
When GHunt takes a high moral tone, it’s time to leave the room.
lizzie @ #146 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 8:20 am
Yeah it would make a lot of sense.
Rakali @ #111 Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 9:47 am
Nah. That number represents peak Trump, and it wasn’t good enough. It wasn’t even close to being good enough.
Biden’s more than 4 million votes ahead of that, and will likely finish at least 5 million votes ahead.