US election live

Live commentary on today’s US election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

2:35pm I’ve written an article for The Conversation about Biden’s win, and how mail-in votes turned key states around. I will continue to follow late counting action in a new thread to be posted tomorrow.

6:31am Sunday Overnight, Pennsylvania and Nevada were both CALLED for Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the required 270. Joe Biden is the president-elect of the United States!

2:47pm Both Georgia Senate races (one a by-election) have been called as going to runoffs on January 5. Republican David Perdue’s vote fell to 49.8%, below the majority required to avoid a runoff. Republicans are likely to win the two final uncalled races, in Alaska and North Carolina, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Democrats would need to win both runoffs to make it a 50-50 tied Senate, with Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote.

2:38pm Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania up to over 27,000 or 0.4%. His lead in Georgia is almost 4,400 or 0.09%.

1:12pm Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to under 30,000 votes or 0.9% as a Maricopa batch goes to Trump by ten points. But Arizona is now at 97% counted. Meanwhile, Biden’s Pennsylvania lead edges up to over 21,700 (0.3%).

11:50am Biden leads by 4,022 in Georgia (0.08%), by over 19,500 in Pennsylvania (0.3%), by 1.2% in Arizona and by 1.8% in Nevada. A large drop of votes from Arizona’s Maricopa county in under two hours could confirm that result. Biden continues to pull away in Pennsylvania and Nevada as more mail is counted.

9:15am Biden’s Georgia lead now 4,270 (0.08%) with Gwinnett county ballots counted. His Pennsylvania lead is over 14,500.

7:30am Biden’s lead in Georgia has increased to almost 1,600 votes. Almost 8,200 mail votes remain, including 4,800 in Dem-heavy Gwinnett county. Biden will further increase his lead. Today is the deadline for up to 9,000 military and overseas votes to arrive, but most of them probably won’t.

7:23am Trump has reduced Biden’s lead in Arizona to 1.3% with 93% in. But the latest batch was much weaker for Trump than previous batches, and puts him well off the pace needed to overtake.

6:45am Biden has also extended his lead in Nevada to 1.6% with 92% in. He’s going to win at least 279 Electoral Votes.

6:43am Saturday Biden also seizes the lead in Pennsylvania, by under 14,000 votes or 0.2%. With 96% counted, there are many more heavily Dem votes for Biden to further expand his lead. This state should be called for Biden soon, putting him over the line with 273 Electoral Votes.

8:35pm Biden seizes the lead in Georgia by 917 votes or 0.02%. There are very few votes outstanding, so Biden’s lead won’t stretch much further, and it is well within recount margin. Nobody will call for Biden yet.

8:06pm Trump’s lead in Georgia drops to just 463 votes.

5:55pm Trump’s Georgia margin has just fallen back to under 1,300.

5:50pm Not much counting in the last hour or so. Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 18,200. Looks like we’ll have to wait til tomorrow morning for Biden to hit the lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia.

4:07pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 22,600 or 0.3%.

3:37pm Trump’s leads are now 24,500 in Pennsylvania and 1,800 in Georgia.

2:56pm And Pennsylvania keeps going Biden’s way, as Trump’s lead drops to 26,000 or 0.4%.

2:47pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now under 37,000 or 0.5%.

2:27pm Georgia still has over 16,000 votes to count, so Biden is very likely to take the lead.

1:49pm Trump’s leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia now at 42,000 and under 2,000 respectively. Biden is likely to take the lead soon in both states.

1:33pm Back to the US, and Biden’s margin in Arizona keeps tightening, now down to 1.6% with 90% in. The Trump margin in Georgia is down to under 2,500 votes. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is now under 50,000 (0.7%), with plenty of mail still to come.

1:10pm A diversion to New Zealand, where final results of the election three weeks ago gave Labour 65 of the 120 seats, National 33, the Greens and ACT ten each and the Maori party two. Labour won 50.0% of the vote, National 25.6%, the Greens 7.9%, ACT 7.6% and Maori 1.2%. Labour and Maori each gained one seat at National’s expense from the election night results, with Labour’s vote increasing 0.9%.

12:05pm Mail ballots have been going to Biden even in big Trump counties. Nate Silver says that Trump discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, so even in Trump counties, the few Biden voters dominated mail. But there’s a LOT more mail in Biden counties.

11:17am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.0% with 94% in. But Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to 2.1% as late mail votes there favour Trump.

11:12am Trump now ahead in Georgia by just 3,600 votes or 0.1%. Clayton county in Atlanta appears to be the last county with votes outstanding. That’s at 95% in, and Biden’s winning by 85-14. Final votes there could well put Biden ahead.

9:33am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.4% with 93% in.

9:30am Trump’s lead in Georgia now just under 10,000 votes or 0.2%. It appears there are enough votes left for Biden to take the lead. Both Georgia Senate seats are headed for January 5 runoffs as Republican David Perdue’s vote share falls just under 50%.

9:27am 90% of the Nevada ballots remaining are in Democratic favouring Clark county, much of them mail. Biden is very likely to further expand his Nevada lead.

7:12am Biden is winning almost 80% with Pennsylvania mail ballots

7:02am Trump’s lead in Georgia is down to just 0.3% with 98% in.

7:00am In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is down to 1.7% with 92% in. The remaining vote is Dem-heavy mail. Biden is likely to lead comfortably once all votes are counted.

6:53am Friday Biden slightly extended his lead in Nevada on this morning’s counting, to 0.9% with 89% reporting. Nevada’s analyst Jon Ralston is virtually calling for Biden based on where the remaining votes are, and how Democrats have performed.

4:43pm A Pennsylvania win would get Biden 273 Electoral Votes, three above the magic 270. Biden is also currently ahead in Nevada (more votes to be counted tomorrow) and Arizona (late mail favouring Trump there). He is a good chance to win Georgia once all votes are counted. If Biden wins these states, he wins the Electoral College by 306-232, an exact reversal of the 2016 result.

4:35pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is just 2.6% with 89% in. Twitter analysts say Biden is outperforming Clinton’s 2016 margins in the more populous counties and should comfortably win Pennsylvania once all votes are counted. That should occur by Saturday AEDT.

1:30pm Biden’s lead in Arizona narrows to under three points with 86% in. While early mail there was very good for Biden, late mail is good for Trump.

12:45pm Trump’s lead in Georgia down to just 0.8% with 95% reporting. Late votes are very pro-Biden there.

12:27pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now down to three points with 88% in.

11:05am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has fallen to four points with 86% in. Nate Cohn says Biden is likely to win by about two points when all votes are tallied.

9:08am Michigan CALLED for Biden, taking him to 253 Electoral Votes. He’s likely to win Pennsylvania when all mail is counted, and win the election with at least 273 EVs.

6:28am The NYT has just CALLED Wisconsin for Biden; that’s his first state gain from 2016. Trump won Maine’s 2nd district, so it’s now 237 Biden, 214 Trump. Michigan is very likely to give Biden 253 Electoral Votes.

6:25am In the House, Dems lead by 199-185 with 51 races uncalled. Reps have made a net five seat gain, so the Dem majority will be reduced to about 230 seats out of 435.

6:22am Republicans lead in the Senate by 48-47 with five races uncalled. Reps won Maine and Dems Arizona. Two Georgia races are probably headed to runoffs. Dems are likely to win Michigan and Reps North Carolina.

6:15am Thursday With more than 98% counted in Wisconsin, Biden has a 49.4-48.8 lead, and will almost certainly win. He has a 49.6-48.7 lead in Michigan with 94% counted, and should win. Trump still leads by 8 in Pennsylvania with 80% in, but the remaining votes are very pro-Biden. Winning Wisconsin and Michigan would get Biden to 253 Electoral Votes

11:08pm And that’s going to be my last update for today.

11:06pm Nate Cohn says there are more than enough mail ballots outstanding in Pennsylvania for Biden to easily overhaul Trump.

10:30pm That last rural Nevada county is in. Trump only got a 1500 vote margin despite winning almost 80% of the vote there – low population. Biden’s statewide Nevada lead is down to 0.6% or 7,600 votes.

9:32pm The Biden Nevada lead is now just 0.8%, or 9,300 votes. One rural county is yet to report; that county gave Trump a 1400 vote margin in 2016.

9:25pm Biden’s lead in Nevada is down to 1% with 85% in. However, I believe they’ve virtually finished with in-person election day votes, and the rest should be mail that will likely boost Biden.

9:05pm Mail in Michigan should be counted by tomorrow, while Pennsylvania will take until Saturday AEDT.

9:00pm I had a break from this. Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin by 49.3-49.0 with 89% in. It’s likely that remaining mail ballots there will be good for him.

7:20pm The NYT calls Maine for Biden. He leads by 227-213.

7:15pm I’ve just published an article for The Conversation about these results. Democrats only appear likely to gain a net one Senate seat, so Republicans would still have a 52-48 majority. That would be a very disappointing outcome for Democrats.

7:08pm The AP has confirmed Fox News’ call for Biden in Arizona.

5:50pm Biden leads by 5 in Nevada with 74% in, probably enough. He leads by 6 in Arizona with 80% in.

5:15pm The NYT calls Minnesota for Biden; that takes him to 223 Electoral Votes.

4:17pm And the NYT Needle now gives Biden a 0.4% lead in Georgia with 79% in.

4:15pm Biden leads in Nebraska’s second district by ten points with 85% in. If he wins that plus Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan, he has 270 Electoral Votes.

4:05pm Georgia is looking better for Biden. The NYT Needle has it at just Trump +1 with 78% counted. North Carolina isn’t over yet as mail ballots can arrive after election day. The needle is at Trump +1.2.

3:50pm The Iowa Selzer poll that had Trump winning by seven is likely to be on target again. He leads there by 4.5% with plenty of election day votes to come.

3:37pm Fox News has CALLED Arizona for Biden and the Dem Senate candidate.

3:15pm The Senate so far has the Reps gaining Alabama, while the Dems gain Colorado. The Reps have held SC and are likely to hold NC. One Georgia race is headed for a runoff, and the other could go that way too.

3:10pm And the NYT has called NH for Biden, which gets him 209 EVs.

3:05pm California, Washington and Oregon are called for Biden. That gives him a 205-112 lead in called races. But Trump is going to win Florida, Texas, Ohio and very probably North Carolina and Georgia.

2:35pm Two US networks have CALLED New Hampshire for Biden. He was expected to win there, but that’s his first real good news of the night.

2:17pm Trump now leading in Ohio by four points with 72% in. And in NC, he’s taken the lead by 0.4% with 88% in.

2:10pm Biden has an 11-point lead in Arizona’s early vote, which is an estimated 69% of all Arizona votes.

2:00 pm It’s looking bleak for Biden in the south and southwest as election day votes erode his early vote leads. It’s the same in Ohio. So Biden is probably going to need Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Those states count mail later.

1:42pm Biden leads by two in Ohio with 62% in, but the election day vote is likely to win it for Trump.

1:34pm Trump has just taken the lead by 0.1% in Texas with 73% in. Biden has been weak with Hispanics, like in Florida.

1:30pm Trump keeps gaining in NC as the election day vote is counted. He’s now less than two points behind, and the NYT needle is giving him a 92% chance to win.

1:20pm The NYT Needle has Trump winning NC by 1.4% with 72% reporting, and Georgia by 4%. Nate Cohn says completed towns in New Hampshire are showing a 6% margin shift to Biden.

12:40pm The NYT needle has Trump winning Georgia by 4 points and North Carolina by 0.9. Biden currently leads in NC by 7 points with 66% in, but most of that is early vote. And no surprise that Arkansas was called quickly for Trump.

12:15pm Biden leads in Texas by 13.5 points with 26% in. Remember this would be early votes.

12:12pm Democrats would dearly love to knock off current Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. But Kentucky is too right wing; McConnell currently leads by 25 points.

12:09pm Biden leads in Ohio by 18 points with 31% in. However, that’s mostly early vote from the big population centres, and Trump will improve.

12:05pm Massachusetts, Connecticut Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois called for Biden, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi for Trump. Biden has an 85 to 55 Electoral College lead over Trump. These states were all easy calls.

12 noon South Carolina called for Trump

11:43am Virginia has been called for Biden, West Virginia for Trump. The NYT Needle gives Trump a 94% chance to win Florida – game over there.

11:30am The NYT needle has Trump winning Florida by 3.5 points, owing to a dreadfully weak performance by Dems in Miami-Dade county. At least the problems with Cuban Americans are unlikely to affect other states.

11:20am Biden leads in Florida by 51-48 with an estimated 31% in. Don’t think that’s good enough given election day votes and the Panhandle.

11:10am The New York Times has called Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Biden.

10:47am Owing to a massive early vote margin in Lexington, Biden has a current two-point lead in Kentucky. It’s not likely to last, though.

10:05am The partisan split in Broward keeps widening in Democrats’ favour.

9:22am Republicans voted heavily in the morning, but their gains have slowed down dramatically. This tweet thread from Nate Silver shows how the Dem-Rep-Oth composition of Broward county, Florida has changed during the day. Broward is a very strong Democratic county, but it’s the trend that counts. This does not include votes cast before election day.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The final FiveThirtyEight national poll aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.4% lead over Donald Trump (51.8% to 43.4%). In the key states, Biden leads by 8.4% in Wisconsin, 7.9% in Michigan, 4.7% in Pennsylvania, 2.6% in Arizona and 2.5% in Florida.

The worry for Biden is that Pennsylvania, the “tipping-point” state, is almost four points more favourable for Trump than the national aggregate. As a result, the final FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 10% chance to win the Electoral College, but a mere 3% chance to win the popular vote.

For the Senate, the FiveThirtyEight Classic forecast gives Democrats a 78% win probability, with the most likely outcome a 52-48 Democratic Senate. Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 48 and 56 seats after the election.

Poll closing times

All times given here are today Australian Eastern Daylight Time. Polls have suggested the early vote will be strongly pro-Biden, but the election day vote will be strongly pro-Trump. Early leads in a given state are likely to depend on whether that state counts election day or early votes first. Poll closing times are from The Green Papers.

Some states span two time zones, with voting finishing an hour later in the trailing zone. US media will not call states until all polls in that state are closed. The most important early state is Florida: if Biden wins, he’s almost assured of victory, but a Trump win means we could be waiting for mail votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan, possibly for days.

10am. The first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be easy Trump wins.

11am. Polls close in Georgia and most of Florida. In Florida, early votes will be released soon after polls close and election day votes are counted relatively quickly. Here’s the catch: polls in most of Florida close at 11am, but there’s a very right-wing part called the Panhandle. The Panhandle is in a different time zone, and closes one hour after the rest of Florida. In 2016 and 2018, the Panhandle caused agony for hopeful Democrats.

11:30am. Polls close in North Carolina and Ohia. I believe early votes will be counted first in both states.

12 noon. Polls close in Pennsylvania and most of Michigan and Texas (small parts of Michigan and Texas close at 1pm). I believe election day votes will be counted first in Pensylvania and Michigan, while early votes are counted first in Texas.

1pm. Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. In Arizona, a large share of the overall vote will be mail, and that should be out for most of Arizona within an hour of polls closing. Mail received after election day can be accepted.

2pm. Polls close in Iowa, where I believe early votes will be counted quickly.

3pm. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. These are all Democratic strongholds that should be called immediately for Biden. If he’s already gained enough Trump 2016 states, this could be when he is declared president-elect.

5pm. The final polls close in Alaska’s western time zone.

4,158 comments on “US election live”

Comments Page 83 of 84
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  1. “Cud Chewersays:
    Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:59 pm
    Is Romney or any of the “moderate” Republican senators gong to vote for a 2 trillion renewable energy spend or vote to raise taxes on the rich? That’s the problem.”

    Some Republican senators do support renewables:

    Increasing tax on the super-rich is a more contentious issue for the Neoliberal Republicans, I agree. But again, Biden will likely only need to convince one or two senators. Note that among Republican voters there is an appetite for a better taxation on the super-rich:
    “Yet the new poll found that 53% of Republicans, and 77% of Democrats, agreed that “the very rich should contribute an extra share of their total wealth each year to support public programs.” That means about 65% of the total number of people interviewed in the survey essentially agreed that a wealth tax is a good idea.”

  2. Seems pointless as anything other than a delaying tactic. Each challenge fails unless both chambers agree it should stand, which they won’t.

    As I intimated when I said that the Dems still have control of the House.

    However, even as a delaying tactic it could cause great damage to the standing of the incoming Biden Administration:

    You likely have never heard of Emily Murphy. She’d actually prefer to keep it that way.

    But the low-key civil servant has sole authority over whether or not Joe Biden’s transition can officially move forward, pushing her center stage in the presidential contest.

    Murphy, the administrator of the General Services Administration (GSA), must make an “ascertainment” that Biden has won the presidency before the transition can contact federal agencies or access the millions of dollars set aside for the team. While the Associated Press and POLITICO have determined that Biden has won the election, President Donald Trump has not conceded and recounts are ongoing. “The simple fact is this election is far from over,” Trump said in a statement Saturday. “Legal votes decide who is president, not the news media.”

    This has put Murphy in an awkward position.

    As a rule, the GSA avoids any hint of partisanship. Even as the media declared Biden the winner on Saturday, the GSA was reluctant to immediately follow, saying in a statement that “an ascertainment has not yet been made. GSA and its Administrator will continue to abide by, and fulfill, all requirements under the law.” Every passing day, however, also stalls what was already a historically difficult transition. Making matters even more complicated, the law on the subject is vague and leaves it up to Murphy to determine when Biden is officially president-elect.

    Murphy could play it safe and wait until December 14, when the Electoral College is set to cast their ballots for the president. But doing so could also significantly hamper the Biden transition effort and leave them scrambling amid dueling public health and economic crises.


    When, after the Electoral College fails to do so, the House of Reps decides between the top 3 electoral college vote getting candidates, each state gets 1 vote. Before the current elections the Republicans held majorities in 26 states (the requisite majority) and I don`t think that lost that in this election.

  4. And in dispiriting news, via Shields and Brooks on PBS, Donald Trump doubled the number of votes that he received in 2016, from the LGBTQ community in 2020. 🙁

  5. “In Georgia, military mail in ballots are favouring Joe Biden 4 to 1. They are sending Dotard a message..”

    Love it!…. 🙂

    All that fear about the Trumpist armed militias who were ordered to “stand back and stand by” was always exaggerated, unless it was backed up by serious signs that the US military would follow Trump in his madness… But the message coming from the US military seems to be clear: They stand with the Democratic process and with the president elected through such Democratic process… Hence, they will support Biden…. End of the armed militias!

  6. I’m sure I read recently (not sure where) that the Republicans also had a big voter registration drive and effort to get out the vote in this election. I assume there aren’t any issues with all the people they signed up, but who would know? This was not doubt done to counter what they knew the democrats were doing.

    In any case, people pressganged for an election where the push failed might not be so eager to vote in subsequent elections as they may not have been very committed to start with. I think a lot of Trumps 70 million will never darken the door of a polling place again.

    The Republican vote has actually been in long term decline for a lot of reasons, many of them demographic. That is why they have been so determined to entrench distortions in the electoral system so they can preserve their power. It feels like this election may well be the high point of their efforts, so the future may not be glum for the Democrats, as long as they can keep up their momentum.

    Actions of Republicans in the Senate will also be moderated by the political costs of obstructing popular measures, such as health care reform – I expect the Democrats will be applying maximum pressure. In the end it will come down to the politics – the use of legal obstructions will be limited by the political costs of doing so.

  7. Deb Reynolds @DebReyn85125570 7h Replying to @adriofwands

    You know what I realized today? Biden/Harris supporters are happy and joyful. In 4 years, I have only seen trump supporters express anger and fear.

  8. bc @ #4073 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 7:59 pm

    frednk says Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 7:36 pm

    Sinodinos made a bit of a fool of himself on insiders.

    How so?

    ItzaDream says Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 9:15 am

    Speers making a goose of himself, again, with silly gotcha questions. One thing about SeeNo, he’s good at this.

    I think Seenodonors started getting a bit irritated with Speers’s gotcha questions. I’m not sure what the point of the questions were.

    iirc, Speers was trying to get Sinodinos to adjudicate of the alleged fraudulence in the election. Sinodinos was way ahead of him.

  9. Alpo

    I don’t believe any Republican senator is going to cross the floor on some very important issues.

    – 2 trillion green energy spend
    – Rescinding tax cuts
    – Health care reforms

    These are die in a ditch issues for all of the GOP.

  10. bc:

    As for Hockey, he’s probably hurt his own business more than he’s hurt Australia. Sinodinos will need to make it pretty clear very quickly that Hockey was not speaking for Australia and his views are not shared here. I imagine there’s plenty of damage control going on in the background.

    Yes. Mr Hockey’s pitch would have been that he provided the unofficial (raw) channel whilst the Ambassador (currently Senator Sinodinos) provided the official (cleaned up) channel. Mr Hockey’s product is either not now plausible or no longer valuable.

  11. There have been Republicans advocating a carbon tax, but more as a way to cut income taxes. The idea is that all carbon tax revenue would be given back to taxpayers as a cheque each year.

  12. “C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 9:21 pm
    And in dispiriting news, via Shields and Brooks on PBS, Donald Trump doubled the number of votes that he received in 2016, from the LGBTQ community in 2020. ”

    The LGBTQ community does not vote unanimously for progressive parties, as one would expect. Look at the Australian Parliament: Which side of politics has got more gay parliamentarians?… Although, also look at which side of politics has got more lesbian parliamentarians.

  13. I’d also like to add my voice to the chorus of appreciation for William and Adrian for the updates.

    In particular to William for giving Barney and Guytaur their very own thread to thrash out their grievances with one another, thereby keeping this one free from the go-nowhere tit for tat.

  14. C@tmomma @ #4102 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 8:21 pm

    And in dispiriting news, via Shields and Brooks on PBS, Donald Trump doubled the number of votes that he received in 2016, from the LGBTQ community in 2020. 🙁

    Probably sounds worse than it is. Doubling a microscopic number still tends to leave you with a microscopic number.

    Lies, damned lies, and statistics. 🙂

  15. Cat

    It is disappointing that the LGBTI community have voted more strongly for Trump but i expect its srill a witheringly small proportion.

    There are a lot of white men in the gay community who think – now that we have marriage equality – they can vote in their eceonomic interests (see Trevor Evans, Tim Wilson and Trent Zimmerman in this country). There’s also any number of radical feminists who woild have lapped up Trump’s anti-Trans rhetoric.

    At the end of the day, LGBTI people are people. And some of us are just fucking awful.

  16. C@t:

    I’m looking at the positives!

    President-elect Joe Biden is planning to quickly sign a series of executive orders after being sworn into office on Jan. 20, immediately forecasting that the country’s politics have shifted and that his presidency will be guided by radically different priorities.

    He will rejoin the Paris climate accords, according to those close to his campaign and commitments he has made in recent months, and he will reverse President Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization. He will repeal the ban on almost all travel from some Muslim-majority countries, and he will reinstate the program allowing “dreamers,” who were brought to the United States illegally as children, to remain in the country, according to people familiar with his plans.

    Although transitions of power can always include abrupt changes, the shift from Trump to Biden — from one president who sought to undermine established norms and institutions to another who has vowed to restore the established order — will be among the most startling in American history.

    And watch Republicans squeal despite Trump signing executive order after executive order in his first 18 months in office. Goose-gander etc.

  17. A majority of Republican voters may support higher taxes on wealthy people but zero percent of the big donor class are in favour, which means that zero Republican Senators will vote for it.

    It is wrong to link higher taxes on the wealthy with increased spending on public services anyway. There is no connection between those two things. The federal government could massively increase spending on public services without raising taxes on anybody. It wouldn’t be inflationary to do it because there is such a large amount of unused real resources in the economy right now.

    It is very unhelpful to perpetuate the false idea that increased spending on public services is conditional on raising taxes.

  18. From elsewhere:
    “Claims of election fraud are now only negotiation posturing. Pence is shimmying – wants to be seen as loyal but not blind. His choices are poison – Pontius Pilate or Devil’s Disciple? SCOTUS not happy at being drawn into the pardon questions. Sacrifices required, but who? Donald Jnr. is the prize. All around looking for wormsign. “

  19. Alpo

    Some Republican Senators do support renewables. So what you get is negotiation and a vastly watered down Bill.. seen this all before sorry.

  20. Cud Chewer @ #4114 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 8:35 pm


    I don’t believe any Republican senator is going to cross the floor on some very important issues.

    – 2 trillion green energy spend
    – Rescinding tax cuts
    – Health care reforms

    These are die in a ditch issues for all of the GOP.

    Mitt Romney, as governor of Massachusetts, implemented a health care plan that was the model for the Affordable Care Act.

    I’m sure there are states that would benefit massively from renewables investment but don’t have significant fossil fuel resources, especially in Republican areas in the midwest.

    Support for higher taxes on the rich is not limited to Democrat states – in fact it could be sold as sticking it to the wealthy elites.

    Lots of opportunities for the Democrats to split off Senators on particular issues. There will have to be at least some Republicans on these issues for whom the horse of self interest will be running in the race and you’d always back that horse.

  21. Rebecca Armitage and Lucia Stein at the ABC ask:

    “Now the curtain has fallen on the Trump presidency. But will a man who craved the spotlight allow himself to be shuffled offstage?”

    The answer is: “Yes, of course.”

    Trump is more devoted to his narcissistic self-image than he is to anything else, especially God and Country. The very idea of any kind of sense of duty, empathy or solidarity with any kind of ideal or even a passing nod in the direction of continuity of ideals residing within Donald Trump is anathema to the very concept of the man.

    Likewise, bare-faced lying aside, the Republicans will no doubt be glad to be shot of him. If Trump had ever entertained a genuine desire to “drain the swamp”, the first thing he’d have had to recognize was that the swamp he spoke of was full of Republican grifters, swindlers, gerrymanderers and lurk merchants, and others reeking of other corruptions, exactly like himself. None of them really want, or ever wanted that swamp drained. Without the swamp, they are nothing.

    Forget about Trump making a comeback, politically, commercially or in any other way. He’s history. Done and dusted. All he has left is a pathetic slide downhill, and then a final, obscure oblivion.

    And if you ever start to feel sorry for him, remember the quarter of a million dead, many of whom might have lived but for a misplaced faith in Freedom, and the orange-faced con man who claimed to be its champion.

  22. Kronomex @ #4096 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 9:23 pm

    Where Mundo? Mundo not happy? Mundo go off and sulk? Trump Wins Candygram blow up in Mundo face?

    What the fuck are you jibbering about Kromo?
    Been here all day…and yesterday, and the day before….and the day before that…wouldn’t miss a second of Dotard’s yuge humilitations!!
    I was right about one thing; millions of dumbarse Americans were going to vote for the imbecile. Thankfully, millions more voted for Sleepy Joe.
    My faith is restored.

  23. Late Riser @ #4099 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 9:09 pm

    Cud Chewer @ #4087 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 8:00 pm

    Alpo one of the issues I have with Biden is that he was VP under Obama. That administration suffered from being too kind and decent.

    When I listened to the speeches today, by Harris and then Biden, I noticed anger. Controlled, deep, honest anger. It came out from time to time in little flashes. I think (I hope) that “nice” will take a back seat or be reserved as an occasional reward. We’ll see.

    It totally agree about the flashes. They were electrifying. Joe’s eyes were flashing. I don’t think it will translate into ‘not being nice’, especially as ‘not being nice’ isn’t in their blood; not like the others. They’re too smart for that and its risk of self-harm. And I have enormous respect for the kind of Catholic I think Biden is, or shows all the signs off, and I heard it in his speech today. There was goodness.

    I think they are both well capable of achieving what they want by smart politics and the grit and determination that’s got them here. Biden’s been around, and his reputation as a negotiator precedes him.

    So I hope.

  24. Speaking about Alaska, have they decided their Senate race yet? I heard the Democrat candidate is in with a very good chance as they await the votes of the Inuit to come in from their tribal lands.

  25. LongMemory

    Even the Moonie Times is running articles about President-elect Biden.

    It’s over. But Deadbeat Donlad will never concede. He is the absolute worst of America.

  26. ItzaDream says Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 9:34 pm

    iirc, Speers was trying to get Sinodinos to adjudicate of the alleged fraudulence in the election. Sinodinos was way ahead of him.

    Which no diplomat worth their salt would do. So why ask the question, except in the hope of creating controversy and boosting Speers’ ego.

  27. The success of mail-in voting by Democratic voters will go some way towards undoing Republican techniques of voter suppression. Voters now know they can vote early and that their votes will count, making it much more difficult for Republicans to disrupt, delay and divert efforts to vote in person.

    Great news for working people, for the young and for others who cannot arrange to queue up for many hours to submit their ballots.

  28. ajm if the Republican Senate can vote almost to a person not to impeach, that tells you something about Mitch’s power.

    You can’t negotiate with terrorists.

    Anyhow my point is, lets see how the runoffs go.

  29. C@t I thought I saw CNN declare the Republican Senator in Alaska. I’d like to be convinced otherwise but its a real long shot.

  30. From the Guardian:

    Here’s another view of how Joe Biden might start his presidency, from our own Daniel Strauss and Julian Borger in Washington just before the election. This is a key point though:

    Control of the Senate is crucial for a Biden presidency. Without it, much of his agenda is all but certain to stay in limbo. * Biden has said there is a hidden swath of sitting Republican senators open to working with Democrats under a Biden administration.* But current senators are a bit more pessimistic.

    Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, shrugged when asked if there were more than a handful of Republican senators who could work with Democrats under a Biden presidency.

    “All I know is we’ve seen 46 and a half spineless Republicans the last four years and however many in the House who have shown no courage in standing up to the most corrupt, divisive president of our lifetime,” Brown said.

    At the moment, Democrats do not have that control, and in his address to the nation last night Joe Biden made much of appealing to Republicans to work with him, not against him. There is still, with the Georgia Senate run-offs in January, a chance that the Senate’s balance of power could be flipped in the Democrats’ favor.

    (my asterisks)

    We switched to Fox (now Fox after Murdoch has cut Trump loose) after Biden’s speech. It was subdued. Their female reporter on the ground in Delaware said for her the stand-out moment was when Harris said she might be the first, but she wouldn’t be the last. They then had a male political commentator whose memorable moment was when Biden said that when resolving conflict and differences by attack, it is a choice. And there is another choice – to come together.

    I thought both comments very telling, not least for their honesty.

    (edit: comprehension

  31. I would imagine that the people who benefited from Trump’s executive orders to allow more mining etc in wilderness areas might now be feeling some chilling effects..

  32. Cud Chewer @ #4138 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 9:07 pm

    ajm if the Republican Senate can vote almost to a person not to impeach, that tells you something about Mitch’s power.

    You can’t negotiate with terrorists.

    Anyhow my point is, lets see how the runoffs go.

    Even terrorists can estimate political costs.

    And we’re talking about individual policies, not an existential threat to their party’s President

  33. On the US Senate I am a skeptic. Biden is a nice guy but Mitch is not. The Repugs are ideological extremists. Outside maybe Collins and Romney I would trust none to cooperate on anything.

    I was thinking one plus Biden might have will be control of the US AG office. The Trump regime was widely reported as corrupt. What if Repug congressmen and Senators were too? They probably believed they could do anything while Bill Barr was there. That could give Biden leverage. Cooperation is one thing, but crimes should face court to expose the dark side of the Trump era. One of the Georgia Senate candidates faces questions over share dealing. Barr simply stopped investigating. Night all.

  34. Someone might have brains or future in their head.

    Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins)

    Some news — Jared Kushner has approached President Trump about conceding the election, per two sources.

  35. On the US Senate I am a skeptic. Biden is a nice guy but Mitch is not. The Repugs are ideological extremists. Outside maybe Collins and Romney I would trust none to cooperate on anything.

    I don’t disagree, but Collins and Romney are sufficient.


    President-elect Biden is leading the world to address the climate emergency and leading through the power of example. Biden knows how to stand with America’s allies, stand up to adversaries, and level with any world leader about what must be done. He will not only recommit the United States to the Paris Agreement on climate change – he will go much further than that. He is working to lead an effort to get every major country to ramp up the ambition of their domestic climate targets.

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