2:35pm I’ve written an article for The Conversation about Biden’s win, and how mail-in votes turned key states around. I will continue to follow late counting action in a new thread to be posted tomorrow.
6:31am Sunday Overnight, Pennsylvania and Nevada were both CALLED for Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the required 270. Joe Biden is the president-elect of the United States!
2:47pm Both Georgia Senate races (one a by-election) have been called as going to runoffs on January 5. Republican David Perdue’s vote fell to 49.8%, below the majority required to avoid a runoff. Republicans are likely to win the two final uncalled races, in Alaska and North Carolina, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Democrats would need to win both runoffs to make it a 50-50 tied Senate, with Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote.
2:38pm Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania up to over 27,000 or 0.4%. His lead in Georgia is almost 4,400 or 0.09%.
1:12pm Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to under 30,000 votes or 0.9% as a Maricopa batch goes to Trump by ten points. But Arizona is now at 97% counted. Meanwhile, Biden’s Pennsylvania lead edges up to over 21,700 (0.3%).
11:50am Biden leads by 4,022 in Georgia (0.08%), by over 19,500 in Pennsylvania (0.3%), by 1.2% in Arizona and by 1.8% in Nevada. A large drop of votes from Arizona’s Maricopa county in under two hours could confirm that result. Biden continues to pull away in Pennsylvania and Nevada as more mail is counted.
9:15am Biden’s Georgia lead now 4,270 (0.08%) with Gwinnett county ballots counted. His Pennsylvania lead is over 14,500.
7:30am Biden’s lead in Georgia has increased to almost 1,600 votes. Almost 8,200 mail votes remain, including 4,800 in Dem-heavy Gwinnett county. Biden will further increase his lead. Today is the deadline for up to 9,000 military and overseas votes to arrive, but most of them probably won’t.
7:23am Trump has reduced Biden’s lead in Arizona to 1.3% with 93% in. But the latest batch was much weaker for Trump than previous batches, and puts him well off the pace needed to overtake.
6:45am Biden has also extended his lead in Nevada to 1.6% with 92% in. He’s going to win at least 279 Electoral Votes.
6:43am Saturday Biden also seizes the lead in Pennsylvania, by under 14,000 votes or 0.2%. With 96% counted, there are many more heavily Dem votes for Biden to further expand his lead. This state should be called for Biden soon, putting him over the line with 273 Electoral Votes.
8:35pm Biden seizes the lead in Georgia by 917 votes or 0.02%. There are very few votes outstanding, so Biden’s lead won’t stretch much further, and it is well within recount margin. Nobody will call for Biden yet.
8:06pm Trump’s lead in Georgia drops to just 463 votes.
5:55pm Trump’s Georgia margin has just fallen back to under 1,300.
5:50pm Not much counting in the last hour or so. Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 18,200. Looks like we’ll have to wait til tomorrow morning for Biden to hit the lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
4:07pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 22,600 or 0.3%.
3:37pm Trump’s leads are now 24,500 in Pennsylvania and 1,800 in Georgia.
2:56pm And Pennsylvania keeps going Biden’s way, as Trump’s lead drops to 26,000 or 0.4%.
2:47pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now under 37,000 or 0.5%.
2:27pm Georgia still has over 16,000 votes to count, so Biden is very likely to take the lead.
1:49pm Trump’s leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia now at 42,000 and under 2,000 respectively. Biden is likely to take the lead soon in both states.
1:33pm Back to the US, and Biden’s margin in Arizona keeps tightening, now down to 1.6% with 90% in. The Trump margin in Georgia is down to under 2,500 votes. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is now under 50,000 (0.7%), with plenty of mail still to come.
1:10pm A diversion to New Zealand, where final results of the election three weeks ago gave Labour 65 of the 120 seats, National 33, the Greens and ACT ten each and the Maori party two. Labour won 50.0% of the vote, National 25.6%, the Greens 7.9%, ACT 7.6% and Maori 1.2%. Labour and Maori each gained one seat at National’s expense from the election night results, with Labour’s vote increasing 0.9%.
12:05pm Mail ballots have been going to Biden even in big Trump counties. Nate Silver says that Trump discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, so even in Trump counties, the few Biden voters dominated mail. But there’s a LOT more mail in Biden counties.
11:17am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.0% with 94% in. But Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to 2.1% as late mail votes there favour Trump.
11:12am Trump now ahead in Georgia by just 3,600 votes or 0.1%. Clayton county in Atlanta appears to be the last county with votes outstanding. That’s at 95% in, and Biden’s winning by 85-14. Final votes there could well put Biden ahead.
9:33am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.4% with 93% in.
9:30am Trump’s lead in Georgia now just under 10,000 votes or 0.2%. It appears there are enough votes left for Biden to take the lead. Both Georgia Senate seats are headed for January 5 runoffs as Republican David Perdue’s vote share falls just under 50%.
9:27am 90% of the Nevada ballots remaining are in Democratic favouring Clark county, much of them mail. Biden is very likely to further expand his Nevada lead.
7:12am Biden is winning almost 80% with Pennsylvania mail ballots
7:02am Trump’s lead in Georgia is down to just 0.3% with 98% in.
7:00am In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is down to 1.7% with 92% in. The remaining vote is Dem-heavy mail. Biden is likely to lead comfortably once all votes are counted.
6:53am Friday Biden slightly extended his lead in Nevada on this morning’s counting, to 0.9% with 89% reporting. Nevada’s analyst Jon Ralston is virtually calling for Biden based on where the remaining votes are, and how Democrats have performed.
4:43pm A Pennsylvania win would get Biden 273 Electoral Votes, three above the magic 270. Biden is also currently ahead in Nevada (more votes to be counted tomorrow) and Arizona (late mail favouring Trump there). He is a good chance to win Georgia once all votes are counted. If Biden wins these states, he wins the Electoral College by 306-232, an exact reversal of the 2016 result.
4:35pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is just 2.6% with 89% in. Twitter analysts say Biden is outperforming Clinton’s 2016 margins in the more populous counties and should comfortably win Pennsylvania once all votes are counted. That should occur by Saturday AEDT.
1:30pm Biden’s lead in Arizona narrows to under three points with 86% in. While early mail there was very good for Biden, late mail is good for Trump.
12:45pm Trump’s lead in Georgia down to just 0.8% with 95% reporting. Late votes are very pro-Biden there.
12:27pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now down to three points with 88% in.
11:05am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has fallen to four points with 86% in. Nate Cohn says Biden is likely to win by about two points when all votes are tallied.
9:08am Michigan CALLED for Biden, taking him to 253 Electoral Votes. He’s likely to win Pennsylvania when all mail is counted, and win the election with at least 273 EVs.
6:28am The NYT has just CALLED Wisconsin for Biden; that’s his first state gain from 2016. Trump won Maine’s 2nd district, so it’s now 237 Biden, 214 Trump. Michigan is very likely to give Biden 253 Electoral Votes.
6:25am In the House, Dems lead by 199-185 with 51 races uncalled. Reps have made a net five seat gain, so the Dem majority will be reduced to about 230 seats out of 435.
6:22am Republicans lead in the Senate by 48-47 with five races uncalled. Reps won Maine and Dems Arizona. Two Georgia races are probably headed to runoffs. Dems are likely to win Michigan and Reps North Carolina.
6:15am Thursday With more than 98% counted in Wisconsin, Biden has a 49.4-48.8 lead, and will almost certainly win. He has a 49.6-48.7 lead in Michigan with 94% counted, and should win. Trump still leads by 8 in Pennsylvania with 80% in, but the remaining votes are very pro-Biden. Winning Wisconsin and Michigan would get Biden to 253 Electoral Votes
11:08pm And that’s going to be my last update for today.
11:06pm Nate Cohn says there are more than enough mail ballots outstanding in Pennsylvania for Biden to easily overhaul Trump.
10:30pm That last rural Nevada county is in. Trump only got a 1500 vote margin despite winning almost 80% of the vote there – low population. Biden’s statewide Nevada lead is down to 0.6% or 7,600 votes.
9:32pm The Biden Nevada lead is now just 0.8%, or 9,300 votes. One rural county is yet to report; that county gave Trump a 1400 vote margin in 2016.
9:25pm Biden’s lead in Nevada is down to 1% with 85% in. However, I believe they’ve virtually finished with in-person election day votes, and the rest should be mail that will likely boost Biden.
9:05pm Mail in Michigan should be counted by tomorrow, while Pennsylvania will take until Saturday AEDT.
9:00pm I had a break from this. Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin by 49.3-49.0 with 89% in. It’s likely that remaining mail ballots there will be good for him.
7:20pm The NYT calls Maine for Biden. He leads by 227-213.
7:15pm I’ve just published an article for The Conversation about these results. Democrats only appear likely to gain a net one Senate seat, so Republicans would still have a 52-48 majority. That would be a very disappointing outcome for Democrats.
7:08pm The AP has confirmed Fox News’ call for Biden in Arizona.
5:50pm Biden leads by 5 in Nevada with 74% in, probably enough. He leads by 6 in Arizona with 80% in.
5:15pm The NYT calls Minnesota for Biden; that takes him to 223 Electoral Votes.
4:17pm And the NYT Needle now gives Biden a 0.4% lead in Georgia with 79% in.
4:15pm Biden leads in Nebraska’s second district by ten points with 85% in. If he wins that plus Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan, he has 270 Electoral Votes.
4:05pm Georgia is looking better for Biden. The NYT Needle has it at just Trump +1 with 78% counted. North Carolina isn’t over yet as mail ballots can arrive after election day. The needle is at Trump +1.2.
3:50pm The Iowa Selzer poll that had Trump winning by seven is likely to be on target again. He leads there by 4.5% with plenty of election day votes to come.
3:37pm Fox News has CALLED Arizona for Biden and the Dem Senate candidate.
3:15pm The Senate so far has the Reps gaining Alabama, while the Dems gain Colorado. The Reps have held SC and are likely to hold NC. One Georgia race is headed for a runoff, and the other could go that way too.
3:10pm And the NYT has called NH for Biden, which gets him 209 EVs.
3:05pm California, Washington and Oregon are called for Biden. That gives him a 205-112 lead in called races. But Trump is going to win Florida, Texas, Ohio and very probably North Carolina and Georgia.
2:35pm Two US networks have CALLED New Hampshire for Biden. He was expected to win there, but that’s his first real good news of the night.
2:17pm Trump now leading in Ohio by four points with 72% in. And in NC, he’s taken the lead by 0.4% with 88% in.
2:10pm Biden has an 11-point lead in Arizona’s early vote, which is an estimated 69% of all Arizona votes.
2:00 pm It’s looking bleak for Biden in the south and southwest as election day votes erode his early vote leads. It’s the same in Ohio. So Biden is probably going to need Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Those states count mail later.
1:42pm Biden leads by two in Ohio with 62% in, but the election day vote is likely to win it for Trump.
1:34pm Trump has just taken the lead by 0.1% in Texas with 73% in. Biden has been weak with Hispanics, like in Florida.
1:30pm Trump keeps gaining in NC as the election day vote is counted. He’s now less than two points behind, and the NYT needle is giving him a 92% chance to win.
1:20pm The NYT Needle has Trump winning NC by 1.4% with 72% reporting, and Georgia by 4%. Nate Cohn says completed towns in New Hampshire are showing a 6% margin shift to Biden.
12:40pm The NYT needle has Trump winning Georgia by 4 points and North Carolina by 0.9. Biden currently leads in NC by 7 points with 66% in, but most of that is early vote. And no surprise that Arkansas was called quickly for Trump.
12:15pm Biden leads in Texas by 13.5 points with 26% in. Remember this would be early votes.
12:12pm Democrats would dearly love to knock off current Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. But Kentucky is too right wing; McConnell currently leads by 25 points.
12:09pm Biden leads in Ohio by 18 points with 31% in. However, that’s mostly early vote from the big population centres, and Trump will improve.
12:05pm Massachusetts, Connecticut Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois called for Biden, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi for Trump. Biden has an 85 to 55 Electoral College lead over Trump. These states were all easy calls.
12 noon South Carolina called for Trump
11:43am Virginia has been called for Biden, West Virginia for Trump. The NYT Needle gives Trump a 94% chance to win Florida – game over there.
11:30am The NYT needle has Trump winning Florida by 3.5 points, owing to a dreadfully weak performance by Dems in Miami-Dade county. At least the problems with Cuban Americans are unlikely to affect other states.
11:20am Biden leads in Florida by 51-48 with an estimated 31% in. Don’t think that’s good enough given election day votes and the Panhandle.
11:10am The New York Times has called Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Biden.
10:47am Owing to a massive early vote margin in Lexington, Biden has a current two-point lead in Kentucky. It’s not likely to last, though.
10:05am The partisan split in Broward keeps widening in Democrats’ favour.
9:22am Republicans voted heavily in the morning, but their gains have slowed down dramatically. This tweet thread from Nate Silver shows how the Dem-Rep-Oth composition of Broward county, Florida has changed during the day. Broward is a very strong Democratic county, but it’s the trend that counts. This does not include votes cast before election day.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The final FiveThirtyEight national poll aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.4% lead over Donald Trump (51.8% to 43.4%). In the key states, Biden leads by 8.4% in Wisconsin, 7.9% in Michigan, 4.7% in Pennsylvania, 2.6% in Arizona and 2.5% in Florida.
The worry for Biden is that Pennsylvania, the “tipping-point” state, is almost four points more favourable for Trump than the national aggregate. As a result, the final FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 10% chance to win the Electoral College, but a mere 3% chance to win the popular vote.
For the Senate, the FiveThirtyEight Classic forecast gives Democrats a 78% win probability, with the most likely outcome a 52-48 Democratic Senate. Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 48 and 56 seats after the election.
Poll closing times
All times given here are today Australian Eastern Daylight Time. Polls have suggested the early vote will be strongly pro-Biden, but the election day vote will be strongly pro-Trump. Early leads in a given state are likely to depend on whether that state counts election day or early votes first. Poll closing times are from The Green Papers.
Some states span two time zones, with voting finishing an hour later in the trailing zone. US media will not call states until all polls in that state are closed. The most important early state is Florida: if Biden wins, he’s almost assured of victory, but a Trump win means we could be waiting for mail votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan, possibly for days.
10am. The first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be easy Trump wins.
11am. Polls close in Georgia and most of Florida. In Florida, early votes will be released soon after polls close and election day votes are counted relatively quickly. Here’s the catch: polls in most of Florida close at 11am, but there’s a very right-wing part called the Panhandle. The Panhandle is in a different time zone, and closes one hour after the rest of Florida. In 2016 and 2018, the Panhandle caused agony for hopeful Democrats.
11:30am. Polls close in North Carolina and Ohia. I believe early votes will be counted first in both states.
12 noon. Polls close in Pennsylvania and most of Michigan and Texas (small parts of Michigan and Texas close at 1pm). I believe election day votes will be counted first in Pensylvania and Michigan, while early votes are counted first in Texas.
1pm. Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. In Arizona, a large share of the overall vote will be mail, and that should be out for most of Arizona within an hour of polls closing. Mail received after election day can be accepted.
2pm. Polls close in Iowa, where I believe early votes will be counted quickly.
3pm. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. These are all Democratic strongholds that should be called immediately for Biden. If he’s already gained enough Trump 2016 states, this could be when he is declared president-elect.
5pm. The final polls close in Alaska’s western time zone.