US election live

Live commentary on today’s US election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

2:35pm I’ve written an article for The Conversation about Biden’s win, and how mail-in votes turned key states around. I will continue to follow late counting action in a new thread to be posted tomorrow.

6:31am Sunday Overnight, Pennsylvania and Nevada were both CALLED for Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the required 270. Joe Biden is the president-elect of the United States!

2:47pm Both Georgia Senate races (one a by-election) have been called as going to runoffs on January 5. Republican David Perdue’s vote fell to 49.8%, below the majority required to avoid a runoff. Republicans are likely to win the two final uncalled races, in Alaska and North Carolina, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Democrats would need to win both runoffs to make it a 50-50 tied Senate, with Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote.

2:38pm Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania up to over 27,000 or 0.4%. His lead in Georgia is almost 4,400 or 0.09%.

1:12pm Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to under 30,000 votes or 0.9% as a Maricopa batch goes to Trump by ten points. But Arizona is now at 97% counted. Meanwhile, Biden’s Pennsylvania lead edges up to over 21,700 (0.3%).

11:50am Biden leads by 4,022 in Georgia (0.08%), by over 19,500 in Pennsylvania (0.3%), by 1.2% in Arizona and by 1.8% in Nevada. A large drop of votes from Arizona’s Maricopa county in under two hours could confirm that result. Biden continues to pull away in Pennsylvania and Nevada as more mail is counted.

9:15am Biden’s Georgia lead now 4,270 (0.08%) with Gwinnett county ballots counted. His Pennsylvania lead is over 14,500.

7:30am Biden’s lead in Georgia has increased to almost 1,600 votes. Almost 8,200 mail votes remain, including 4,800 in Dem-heavy Gwinnett county. Biden will further increase his lead. Today is the deadline for up to 9,000 military and overseas votes to arrive, but most of them probably won’t.

7:23am Trump has reduced Biden’s lead in Arizona to 1.3% with 93% in. But the latest batch was much weaker for Trump than previous batches, and puts him well off the pace needed to overtake.

6:45am Biden has also extended his lead in Nevada to 1.6% with 92% in. He’s going to win at least 279 Electoral Votes.

6:43am Saturday Biden also seizes the lead in Pennsylvania, by under 14,000 votes or 0.2%. With 96% counted, there are many more heavily Dem votes for Biden to further expand his lead. This state should be called for Biden soon, putting him over the line with 273 Electoral Votes.

8:35pm Biden seizes the lead in Georgia by 917 votes or 0.02%. There are very few votes outstanding, so Biden’s lead won’t stretch much further, and it is well within recount margin. Nobody will call for Biden yet.

8:06pm Trump’s lead in Georgia drops to just 463 votes.

5:55pm Trump’s Georgia margin has just fallen back to under 1,300.

5:50pm Not much counting in the last hour or so. Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 18,200. Looks like we’ll have to wait til tomorrow morning for Biden to hit the lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia.

4:07pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 22,600 or 0.3%.

3:37pm Trump’s leads are now 24,500 in Pennsylvania and 1,800 in Georgia.

2:56pm And Pennsylvania keeps going Biden’s way, as Trump’s lead drops to 26,000 or 0.4%.

2:47pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now under 37,000 or 0.5%.

2:27pm Georgia still has over 16,000 votes to count, so Biden is very likely to take the lead.

1:49pm Trump’s leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia now at 42,000 and under 2,000 respectively. Biden is likely to take the lead soon in both states.

1:33pm Back to the US, and Biden’s margin in Arizona keeps tightening, now down to 1.6% with 90% in. The Trump margin in Georgia is down to under 2,500 votes. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is now under 50,000 (0.7%), with plenty of mail still to come.

1:10pm A diversion to New Zealand, where final results of the election three weeks ago gave Labour 65 of the 120 seats, National 33, the Greens and ACT ten each and the Maori party two. Labour won 50.0% of the vote, National 25.6%, the Greens 7.9%, ACT 7.6% and Maori 1.2%. Labour and Maori each gained one seat at National’s expense from the election night results, with Labour’s vote increasing 0.9%.

12:05pm Mail ballots have been going to Biden even in big Trump counties. Nate Silver says that Trump discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, so even in Trump counties, the few Biden voters dominated mail. But there’s a LOT more mail in Biden counties.

11:17am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.0% with 94% in. But Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to 2.1% as late mail votes there favour Trump.

11:12am Trump now ahead in Georgia by just 3,600 votes or 0.1%. Clayton county in Atlanta appears to be the last county with votes outstanding. That’s at 95% in, and Biden’s winning by 85-14. Final votes there could well put Biden ahead.

9:33am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.4% with 93% in.

9:30am Trump’s lead in Georgia now just under 10,000 votes or 0.2%. It appears there are enough votes left for Biden to take the lead. Both Georgia Senate seats are headed for January 5 runoffs as Republican David Perdue’s vote share falls just under 50%.

9:27am 90% of the Nevada ballots remaining are in Democratic favouring Clark county, much of them mail. Biden is very likely to further expand his Nevada lead.

7:12am Biden is winning almost 80% with Pennsylvania mail ballots

7:02am Trump’s lead in Georgia is down to just 0.3% with 98% in.

7:00am In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is down to 1.7% with 92% in. The remaining vote is Dem-heavy mail. Biden is likely to lead comfortably once all votes are counted.

6:53am Friday Biden slightly extended his lead in Nevada on this morning’s counting, to 0.9% with 89% reporting. Nevada’s analyst Jon Ralston is virtually calling for Biden based on where the remaining votes are, and how Democrats have performed.

4:43pm A Pennsylvania win would get Biden 273 Electoral Votes, three above the magic 270. Biden is also currently ahead in Nevada (more votes to be counted tomorrow) and Arizona (late mail favouring Trump there). He is a good chance to win Georgia once all votes are counted. If Biden wins these states, he wins the Electoral College by 306-232, an exact reversal of the 2016 result.

4:35pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is just 2.6% with 89% in. Twitter analysts say Biden is outperforming Clinton’s 2016 margins in the more populous counties and should comfortably win Pennsylvania once all votes are counted. That should occur by Saturday AEDT.

1:30pm Biden’s lead in Arizona narrows to under three points with 86% in. While early mail there was very good for Biden, late mail is good for Trump.

12:45pm Trump’s lead in Georgia down to just 0.8% with 95% reporting. Late votes are very pro-Biden there.

12:27pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now down to three points with 88% in.

11:05am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has fallen to four points with 86% in. Nate Cohn says Biden is likely to win by about two points when all votes are tallied.

9:08am Michigan CALLED for Biden, taking him to 253 Electoral Votes. He’s likely to win Pennsylvania when all mail is counted, and win the election with at least 273 EVs.

6:28am The NYT has just CALLED Wisconsin for Biden; that’s his first state gain from 2016. Trump won Maine’s 2nd district, so it’s now 237 Biden, 214 Trump. Michigan is very likely to give Biden 253 Electoral Votes.

6:25am In the House, Dems lead by 199-185 with 51 races uncalled. Reps have made a net five seat gain, so the Dem majority will be reduced to about 230 seats out of 435.

6:22am Republicans lead in the Senate by 48-47 with five races uncalled. Reps won Maine and Dems Arizona. Two Georgia races are probably headed to runoffs. Dems are likely to win Michigan and Reps North Carolina.

6:15am Thursday With more than 98% counted in Wisconsin, Biden has a 49.4-48.8 lead, and will almost certainly win. He has a 49.6-48.7 lead in Michigan with 94% counted, and should win. Trump still leads by 8 in Pennsylvania with 80% in, but the remaining votes are very pro-Biden. Winning Wisconsin and Michigan would get Biden to 253 Electoral Votes

11:08pm And that’s going to be my last update for today.

11:06pm Nate Cohn says there are more than enough mail ballots outstanding in Pennsylvania for Biden to easily overhaul Trump.

10:30pm That last rural Nevada county is in. Trump only got a 1500 vote margin despite winning almost 80% of the vote there – low population. Biden’s statewide Nevada lead is down to 0.6% or 7,600 votes.

9:32pm The Biden Nevada lead is now just 0.8%, or 9,300 votes. One rural county is yet to report; that county gave Trump a 1400 vote margin in 2016.

9:25pm Biden’s lead in Nevada is down to 1% with 85% in. However, I believe they’ve virtually finished with in-person election day votes, and the rest should be mail that will likely boost Biden.

9:05pm Mail in Michigan should be counted by tomorrow, while Pennsylvania will take until Saturday AEDT.

9:00pm I had a break from this. Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin by 49.3-49.0 with 89% in. It’s likely that remaining mail ballots there will be good for him.

7:20pm The NYT calls Maine for Biden. He leads by 227-213.

7:15pm I’ve just published an article for The Conversation about these results. Democrats only appear likely to gain a net one Senate seat, so Republicans would still have a 52-48 majority. That would be a very disappointing outcome for Democrats.

7:08pm The AP has confirmed Fox News’ call for Biden in Arizona.

5:50pm Biden leads by 5 in Nevada with 74% in, probably enough. He leads by 6 in Arizona with 80% in.

5:15pm The NYT calls Minnesota for Biden; that takes him to 223 Electoral Votes.

4:17pm And the NYT Needle now gives Biden a 0.4% lead in Georgia with 79% in.

4:15pm Biden leads in Nebraska’s second district by ten points with 85% in. If he wins that plus Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan, he has 270 Electoral Votes.

4:05pm Georgia is looking better for Biden. The NYT Needle has it at just Trump +1 with 78% counted. North Carolina isn’t over yet as mail ballots can arrive after election day. The needle is at Trump +1.2.

3:50pm The Iowa Selzer poll that had Trump winning by seven is likely to be on target again. He leads there by 4.5% with plenty of election day votes to come.

3:37pm Fox News has CALLED Arizona for Biden and the Dem Senate candidate.

3:15pm The Senate so far has the Reps gaining Alabama, while the Dems gain Colorado. The Reps have held SC and are likely to hold NC. One Georgia race is headed for a runoff, and the other could go that way too.

3:10pm And the NYT has called NH for Biden, which gets him 209 EVs.

3:05pm California, Washington and Oregon are called for Biden. That gives him a 205-112 lead in called races. But Trump is going to win Florida, Texas, Ohio and very probably North Carolina and Georgia.

2:35pm Two US networks have CALLED New Hampshire for Biden. He was expected to win there, but that’s his first real good news of the night.

2:17pm Trump now leading in Ohio by four points with 72% in. And in NC, he’s taken the lead by 0.4% with 88% in.

2:10pm Biden has an 11-point lead in Arizona’s early vote, which is an estimated 69% of all Arizona votes.

2:00 pm It’s looking bleak for Biden in the south and southwest as election day votes erode his early vote leads. It’s the same in Ohio. So Biden is probably going to need Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Those states count mail later.

1:42pm Biden leads by two in Ohio with 62% in, but the election day vote is likely to win it for Trump.

1:34pm Trump has just taken the lead by 0.1% in Texas with 73% in. Biden has been weak with Hispanics, like in Florida.

1:30pm Trump keeps gaining in NC as the election day vote is counted. He’s now less than two points behind, and the NYT needle is giving him a 92% chance to win.

1:20pm The NYT Needle has Trump winning NC by 1.4% with 72% reporting, and Georgia by 4%. Nate Cohn says completed towns in New Hampshire are showing a 6% margin shift to Biden.

12:40pm The NYT needle has Trump winning Georgia by 4 points and North Carolina by 0.9. Biden currently leads in NC by 7 points with 66% in, but most of that is early vote. And no surprise that Arkansas was called quickly for Trump.

12:15pm Biden leads in Texas by 13.5 points with 26% in. Remember this would be early votes.

12:12pm Democrats would dearly love to knock off current Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. But Kentucky is too right wing; McConnell currently leads by 25 points.

12:09pm Biden leads in Ohio by 18 points with 31% in. However, that’s mostly early vote from the big population centres, and Trump will improve.

12:05pm Massachusetts, Connecticut Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois called for Biden, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi for Trump. Biden has an 85 to 55 Electoral College lead over Trump. These states were all easy calls.

12 noon South Carolina called for Trump

11:43am Virginia has been called for Biden, West Virginia for Trump. The NYT Needle gives Trump a 94% chance to win Florida – game over there.

11:30am The NYT needle has Trump winning Florida by 3.5 points, owing to a dreadfully weak performance by Dems in Miami-Dade county. At least the problems with Cuban Americans are unlikely to affect other states.

11:20am Biden leads in Florida by 51-48 with an estimated 31% in. Don’t think that’s good enough given election day votes and the Panhandle.

11:10am The New York Times has called Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Biden.

10:47am Owing to a massive early vote margin in Lexington, Biden has a current two-point lead in Kentucky. It’s not likely to last, though.

10:05am The partisan split in Broward keeps widening in Democrats’ favour.

9:22am Republicans voted heavily in the morning, but their gains have slowed down dramatically. This tweet thread from Nate Silver shows how the Dem-Rep-Oth composition of Broward county, Florida has changed during the day. Broward is a very strong Democratic county, but it’s the trend that counts. This does not include votes cast before election day.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The final FiveThirtyEight national poll aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.4% lead over Donald Trump (51.8% to 43.4%). In the key states, Biden leads by 8.4% in Wisconsin, 7.9% in Michigan, 4.7% in Pennsylvania, 2.6% in Arizona and 2.5% in Florida.

The worry for Biden is that Pennsylvania, the “tipping-point” state, is almost four points more favourable for Trump than the national aggregate. As a result, the final FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 10% chance to win the Electoral College, but a mere 3% chance to win the popular vote.

For the Senate, the FiveThirtyEight Classic forecast gives Democrats a 78% win probability, with the most likely outcome a 52-48 Democratic Senate. Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 48 and 56 seats after the election.

Poll closing times

All times given here are today Australian Eastern Daylight Time. Polls have suggested the early vote will be strongly pro-Biden, but the election day vote will be strongly pro-Trump. Early leads in a given state are likely to depend on whether that state counts election day or early votes first. Poll closing times are from The Green Papers.

Some states span two time zones, with voting finishing an hour later in the trailing zone. US media will not call states until all polls in that state are closed. The most important early state is Florida: if Biden wins, he’s almost assured of victory, but a Trump win means we could be waiting for mail votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan, possibly for days.

10am. The first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be easy Trump wins.

11am. Polls close in Georgia and most of Florida. In Florida, early votes will be released soon after polls close and election day votes are counted relatively quickly. Here’s the catch: polls in most of Florida close at 11am, but there’s a very right-wing part called the Panhandle. The Panhandle is in a different time zone, and closes one hour after the rest of Florida. In 2016 and 2018, the Panhandle caused agony for hopeful Democrats.

11:30am. Polls close in North Carolina and Ohia. I believe early votes will be counted first in both states.

12 noon. Polls close in Pennsylvania and most of Michigan and Texas (small parts of Michigan and Texas close at 1pm). I believe election day votes will be counted first in Pensylvania and Michigan, while early votes are counted first in Texas.

1pm. Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. In Arizona, a large share of the overall vote will be mail, and that should be out for most of Arizona within an hour of polls closing. Mail received after election day can be accepted.

2pm. Polls close in Iowa, where I believe early votes will be counted quickly.

3pm. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. These are all Democratic strongholds that should be called immediately for Biden. If he’s already gained enough Trump 2016 states, this could be when he is declared president-elect.

5pm. The final polls close in Alaska’s western time zone.

4,158 comments on “US election live”

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  1. A Palestinian boy watching as Zionist occupation soldiers bulldozing his family’s ( Kamal Dababsah) two story home in Ghzaiwah area in South Hebron Hills today afternoon, occupied Palestine, 2 November 2020.
    Pics: Hazem Bader*bH-R

  2. Mr Bowe,
    You have made both new threads, one from ‘US Election Minus 2 Days’ and the ‘Things Other Than Queensland’ thread, both land here. I don’t think that was your intent but maybe it was as you thought everyone would be talking about the US Election anyway?

    Please elucidate. 🙂

  3. From the Biden camp:

    Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, Mr. Biden’s campaign manager, said on Tuesday that Mr. Biden, who has led Mr. Trump in the polls in several battleground states in the homestretch of the campaign, had many pathways to the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the election.

    She made the case that he could win even if he lost both Pennsylvania and Florida, another electoral vote-rich state where his campaign has spent significant time, though it is clear that losing Pennsylvania in particular would be a major risk and disappointment for the campaign.

    “We feel like we have a very good understanding of when the vote’s coming in, how it’s coming in and also our expectations of what we hope to see,” she said

    She was joined at the briefing by Bob Bauer, a former White House counsel who is helping to lead the Biden campaign’s election protection efforts. Mr. Bauer said that “by and large, voting is proceeding smoothly.”

  4. I’m nervous. Trump is so polarizing that people may well find it hard to admit that they intend to vote for him. There may be one thing he’s done that they agree with so vehemently that it carries all else before it. There may be something they believe he has *not* done and cite to justify their decision (“He didn’t invade anyone”). There is such a thing as quietly enabling outrageous behaviour because you think you’re a net beneficiary in some way (even despite a lack of evidence for this) or because they say things you secretly endorse, and still better if they say it so flippantly that some internal deniability is possible: “Oh he was joking, you’re just triggered”. And then there are people who will watch a drunken mud fight, cheer it on and vote for it simply because they are entertained by the spectacle or the banter – the reality TV effect.

    I work with people who think like this. It is truly astonishing what people are willing to overlook. Hope I’m wrong with bells on.

  5. Warrigal,
    Yep, it’s time we abandoned Godwin’s Law, a particular politician and the group of people around him has found a way to replicate Hitler’s mesmerising effect on his population, in the 21st century.

  6. I’m nervous. Trump is so polarizing that people may well find it hard to admit that they intend to vote for him
    I guess we will know soon, but if it helps, 538 indicates that there is no, like none at all, evidence of a shy Trump effect. If there were one, it would be just as likely to be countered by a shy Biden effect in some parts of the country.

  7. Early reports from Pennsylvania promising….

    Pete Alexander of NBC News reported:

    I spoke to a person with direct knowledge of the campaign operations who tells me
    they feel good about Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia right now but expressed real concerns about the turnout operations taking place right now for the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania. This person telling me that Pennsylvania was not as prepared as it should be in a state that could decide the presidency.

    Also, saying that when you rely on, you bank your entire campaign effort on election day turnout. You have to ask folks if they are willing to stand in line for a couple of hours to deliver that vote on your behalf. This is significant, Chuck. It’s the first real crack we’re hearing within Trump world today about a potential failure in this strategy. This person expressing frustration about how the president said don’t mail in your ballot or vote absentee. That you want to go to the polls, and he wanted that rush of his base of support on election day. It may work with the base, but as this person described it, what happens to all those others? What happens to moms working at home and have their kids and can’t stand in line for a matter of hours.

    Trump started Election Day likely more than a million votes behind Joe Biden in Pennsylvania. Trump spent months telling people in Pennsylvania not to vote by mail. The result of Trump’s attack on early voting in Pennsylvania is that only 586,336 returned mail-in ballots. Democrats have been running a mail-in voting organization effort all year, and the result is that 1,641,825 Democrats turned in their ballots early.

    Donald Trump’s entire strategy for contesting Pennsylvania is based on a huge same-day voting lead. If the state party, which is controlled by Trump, doesn’t get those voters out for the president, Joe Biden may end up flipping Pennsylvania with ease.

  8. Judge orders sweep for any outstanding ballots at some Postal facilities

    A quick snap from Reuters here that US District Judge Emmet Sullivan has ordered the US Postal Service to conduct a sweep of some processing facilities to ensure no ballots have been held up, and that any discovered are immediately sent out for delivery.

    The order compels Postal Service inspectors or designees to conduct sweeps in Central Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Detroit, Colorado/Wyoming, Atlanta, Houston, Alabama, Northern New England, Greater South Carolina, South Florida, Lakeland, and Arizona.

    Many states require receipt of all mailed ballots by the end of Tuesday, although some will allow them to arrive for days afterwards provided that they are postmarked on or before Election Day itself.

  9. Warrigal: I think it all boils down to whether or not voters can tolerate Trump’s personal behaviour. He has been extraordinarily unpresidential in his behaviour. He says/tweets whatever he feels like, with little disregard for the facts. He bullies people (his behaviour towards Fauci beggars belief). It’s all been incredible to watch.

    But, as you say, there are many people who find themselves able to look beyond the behaviour towards what they were looking for from Trump, and feel he has delivered to some extent on foreign policy, trade, etc.

    I would have thought that Trump’s manifest failure to deliver his promised wall, or anything else much on migration policy, would have damaged him in the eyes of his supporters, but seemingly not.

    What I believe has damaged him quite badly is his rudderless and complacent response to COVID. First and foremost, right-wing politicians depend on the support of older people. In the US, as in many other places, older people are more scared of COVID than they are of economic collapse. Trump doesn’t share that view, and this has put him out of step with a significant part of his party’s traditional base (as opposed to his own personal acolytes).

    I had expected concerns about law and order to mobilise enough voters to get Trump over the line. But I believe that Trump’s tone deaf approach on COVID has undermined that strong political advantage that the riots and looting would have brought him in normal circumstances.

    He should have won easily, but that’s not going to happen. He’ll most likely lose, but it looks like it might be extremely close.

  10. lizzie @ #12 Wednesday, November 4th, 2020 – 6:58 am

    Media Matters
    · 14m
    Steve Bannon: “The president is going to step up tonight between 10 and 11 o’clock … right before the 11 o’clock news he’s going to claim victory. He’s going to claim victory. He’s going to set the ground rules. He’s going to set the parameters”

    Says guy indicted for Fraud on a massive scale. Figures.

  11. BK, et al (special shout out to C@tmomma whom I see is here this morning)

    It is a long time since I touched base here – I think March as the first Covid wave was starting. So like a lot of people I have had a fairly crazy year but I’ve got through it so far (with multiple negative Covid swabs along the way!)

    Hope everyone is well. At the start of the year I anticipated being in Columbus, Ohio today on US Election Day – but like so many other people’s plans that hasn’t quite happened. I would have liked to have been there but I guess “It is what it is”!

    I believe Joe Biden will have a comfortable win today – with 335 electoral votes. (WI, MI, PA, AZ, FL, NC, NE-2, ME-2). Hoping for bigger but ‘that would be enough’.

    Because of the huge turnout he will actually receive the largest number of votes of any Presidential candidate in history.

    Hope everyone has a good day. And I hope that the most promising Covid vaccines will start rolling out at the end of the year so I can start to get back to a normal life, together with everyone else through the world.

    And I have time and space to get back here more often!

  12. Trump can claim victory whenever he wants. That isn’t how the Constitution and the rule of law works however. The little games he has continues.

    The behaviour of the Trump camp gives me the clearest indication he knows he is going to lose.

    Given the number of electors that voted early what we should have prayed for was an immense blizzard across America on voting day.

  13. Exactly, Kirky. Who says that what Trump does or says at any particular time is meaningful in any sense wrt this election!?! He’s on an equal footing now with Joe Biden, he’s just a candidate, like Joe. Sure he remains POTUS until January 20, but not dictator, more like Lame Duck.

  14. I hope America does it for this guy too:

    Alexander S. Vindman

    Today, Election Day, help correct the Senate’s failure.

    He should become Secretary of Defense in a Biden Administration.

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’ve waited four years for this day. I hope it was worth it!

    Porter’s plan will help cover up corruption, not expose it, warns Geoffrey Watson SC who is singularly unimpressed with the token offering.
    And Greg Barns writes that the integrity commission must not become a toothless, taxpayer-funded tiger. He says that as it currently is framed, there will be no deterrence to the types of conduct that we have been so concerned about in recent times.
    Christopher Knaus and Paul Karp report that key crossbenchers in the Senate have said government delays to the proposed anti-corruption commission mean there is little chance it will be established before the next federal election.
    David Crowe says that Morrison is preparing to fly to Japan within weeks to strike a new deal on defence technology against the backdrop of tensions with China and the aftermath of the US election.
    The Reserve Bank of Australia has embraced unprecedented, unconventional policies with both arms. Better late than never, declares the SMH editorial.
    RBA’s Philip Lowe has thrown the kitchen sink, writes Warren Hogan for the AFR.
    Michael Pascoe writes that we’re back to pushing up housing prices as economic policy. It’s another form of trickle-down he says.
    Australian exporters to China are facing a $6 billion cliff after unconfirmed instructions from Chinese customs authorities threatened to ban Australian wine, copper, barley, coal, sugar, timber and lobster from Friday. China/Australia relations are not on a good trajectory.
    And Elizabeth Knight describes how the covert but damaging diplomatic trade war between Australia and China is producing a mounting number of casualties among Australian companies that rely on exports to China.
    Ross Gittins wonders if this government wants to enshrine Australia as the last giant of the disappearing world of fossil fuels, and pay the price of declining relevance to the changing needs of our trading partners, with all the loss of jobs and growth that would entail.
    People are spending more on food delivery, online gambling and furniture than pre-pandemic levels. But they are spending less on public transport, travel and tolls, writes Matt Wade.
    Tome Rabe tells us that one of the state’s top officials has criticised a parliamentary investigation into the NSW government’s controversial grants program, accusing it of taking a “selective approach” to releasing information.
    The Australian Commission for Law Enforcement Integrity (ACLEI) said it had received 172 notifications of potential corruption with 167 of those relating to bodies under the Department of Home Affairs umbrella, its 2019-20 annual report revealed.
    Nick McKenzie and Charlotte Grieve reveal that the former head of Australia’s top anti-corruption agency flew to the United States to personally gather intelligence from American investigators for his probe into alleged corruption involving ASX-listed shipbuilder Austal.
    In a long argument, Paddy Gourly heavily criticises Michael Pezzullo’s last two security “sermons”.
    Trump’s consequence-free presidency turned politics into a game and there are lessons for Australia opines Peter Lewis.
    While the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety’s recommendations set out the “what” to do, it is now up to the commission’s final report to work out the “how”, explains Rachel Lane.
    Rex Patrick said he won’t vote for the government’s changes to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act, due to the government’s “disturbing” failure to ensure environmental protections would be maintained, writes Mike Foley.
    Jess Davis tells us that scientists are warning Australia’s biosecurity system needs a major overhaul, with the threat of severe biosecurity events like COVID-19 increasing.
    And in good news, the Whiting of the Murray is staging a big comeback!
    Our suburb didn’t die during lockdown, says Greg Baum. In fact, he continues, there were even more people in the streets than usual – but there was always the air of the prison exercise yard.
    Gary Punch, a former minister in the Hawke and Keating governments, writes that a Trump victory would necessitate the most expensive revamp in our defence preparedness since the fall of Singapore in 1942.
    Rupert Murdoch’s Foxtel is under attack on many fronts, from specialist sports streaming services, Netflix, Stan and Amazon Prime to Kevin Rudd’s cancel News Corp petition. A new tie-up between Fetch TV and a cloud application platform ratchet’s up the pressure. Anthony Eales reports on Foxtel’s battle for survival.
    Britain’s terrorism threat level has been raised to “severe” following attacks in France and Austria.
    National Guard troops are on standby in case of violence. Lawyers are readying for court challenges. These aren’t the symptoms of a healthy democracy, writes Matthew Knott.
    Belgium is air-lifting patients to Germany as the pandemic surge continues.
    According to Rafael Behr, Trump and Johnson have shown countries need leaders, not celebrity politicians.
    And the ever-entertaining John Crace tells us that a subdued Boris Johnson just a piece of flotsam being buffeted around.
    Donald Trump can’t win – can he? America is on high alert over whether Joe Biden gets to turn the political dial back to normal or Trump shocks democracy again, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    Donald Trump has exhibited many signs of a dangerous mental condition during his time in the White House, writes Lyn Bender.,14476
    John Lord writes that America is voting to stop the decay.
    Kim Hoggard, a US expat who served as a senior advisor to Reagan and GHW Bush, says this is her country’s moment to mend the soul of a broken democracy.
    The real reason Trump is terrified of losing the presidency is fear of prosecution, writes Samer S Shehata.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Andrew Dyson

    John Shakespeare

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre (a gif)
    Johannes Leak

    Mark Knight

    Alan Moir

    From the US

  16. Promising shoots springing up:

    Virginia Heffernan LA Times

    An 80yo couple close to me, lifelong GOP, got hijacked by Fox News in 2010 or so.

    They started railing against the MSM & sidling up to conspiracy theories. 6m ago they quit Fox. Voted for Biden. TODAY they subscribed to

    This is like watching people get sober

  17. Meher Baba

    “He’ll most likely lose, but it looks like it might be extremely close.”

    You base that on what?
    Trump campaign thoughts?
    Your research?

    Get some facts and start coming to grip with the real world, not Trumps alternate fantasy.

    There will be no closeness in this.

    Trump is going to get his arse handed to him by the people of USA who have grown sick of the antics of this clown and his circus of fools.

    You can bookmark this.

  18. Posted 30mins or so ago.

    First results are expected in Florida within the hour; they could number in the millions. Nearly 9 million votes were cast early in person and by mail. Florida is one of the few swing states that allow the counting of those votes a week or more before Election Day.

    First results are also expected in Georgia within the hour. More than 2 million people voted early and in person, and more than 1 million voted by mail. The state allows those ballots to be processed as they are received, but they cannot be counted until the polls have closed on Election Day.

  19. Andrew Gold
    I feel sorrow for the Palestinian people.
    Any criticism of Israeli policy is usually tagged anti Semitic.
    We can discuss Trump & US politics 24/7 but discussion about policies regarding Palestine/ Israel is discouraged.
    You might find Antony Loewenstein’s writings interesting

  20. I’m thinking I might check in with this live coverage in between others.

    The Lincoln Project@ProjectLincoln·
    #LPTV Join us tonight LIVE at 8:30pm ET for The Breakdown with @TheRickWilson, TaraSetmayer and @Scaramucci, 9:00pm ET for Best of LPTV, and again at 11:00pm ET for The Breakdown Election Analysis

  21. Political Polls@Politics_Polls·
    Florida 3:30 update:

    GOP: 4,087,834 (+173,200)
    DEM: 3,914,634
    NPA/Other: 2,464,130

    TOTAL: 10,466,598

    Via @umichvoter99

  22. Good morning and many thanks BK for your excellent Dawn Patrol.

    Forgive my slowness of mind – what is Johannes Leak on about with his cartoon today ❓

    Exciting day. I forgot to get a supply of popcorn. Damn ❗ Nevermind – always plenty of ☕☕☕ coffee. Perhaps a deluge of Creaming Soda later depending on US election result.

  23. The elections commission (or whatever it’s called) in Nth Carolina has extended voting times in that state.

    Jim Sciutto@jimsciutto·
    Update: North Carolina’s election results will be delayed by at least 45 minutes after the board of elections extended voting at four locations that were having problems this morning.

  24. In a way I’m glad I have to go out most of today except for a dip back home for an hour or so in the middle of the day, I think it will help settle my stomach. 😀

  25. CNBC Politics

    Candidate updates: “Winning is easy. Losing is never easy. Not for me, it’s not,” President Trump said earlier. #Election2020

    I think that to even mention the prospect of losing, Trump could be laying the groundwork.

  26. Nate Silver@NateSilver538·
    Among other things I would be VERY CAREFUL WITH EARLY EXIT POLLS. Even more so than usual. If there are big splits in the partisan composition of the electorate over the course of the day, and we’re seeing that in FL, AZ and NV, exits conducted early on could be quite misleading.

  27. NPA voters have been consistently polled as heavily anti-Trump and antic Republican in recent years. It was different in the Reagan-Bush I era.

    If registered republicans and democrats effectively cancel each other out then my pick is that Biden will pick up Florida comfortably on the back of the very large turnout of independents – something that was sorely missed in 2016.

    Over the past two years I feared that low enthusiasm for Biden – or anyone else running as a democrat (Bernie included amongst moderates and independents) would lead to lower than expected turnout – which has been the killer for democrats for 30 years. I don’t think there is a low turnout problem in the key demographics this year. Turnout appears to be phenomenal, so the democrats should be able to win by exercising their demographic advantages over the white rump that makes up ‘the base’. Hoping I’m right.

  28. Posted this days ago on another thread:
    Elect College prediction:
    Biden 387 (all close states except for Iowa and Ohio)
    Trump 149
    Now think that both Iowa and Ohio may well also go blue.

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