2:35pm I’ve written an article for The Conversation about Biden’s win, and how mail-in votes turned key states around. I will continue to follow late counting action in a new thread to be posted tomorrow.
6:31am Sunday Overnight, Pennsylvania and Nevada were both CALLED for Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the required 270. Joe Biden is the president-elect of the United States!
2:47pm Both Georgia Senate races (one a by-election) have been called as going to runoffs on January 5. Republican David Perdue’s vote fell to 49.8%, below the majority required to avoid a runoff. Republicans are likely to win the two final uncalled races, in Alaska and North Carolina, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Democrats would need to win both runoffs to make it a 50-50 tied Senate, with Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote.
2:38pm Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania up to over 27,000 or 0.4%. His lead in Georgia is almost 4,400 or 0.09%.
1:12pm Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to under 30,000 votes or 0.9% as a Maricopa batch goes to Trump by ten points. But Arizona is now at 97% counted. Meanwhile, Biden’s Pennsylvania lead edges up to over 21,700 (0.3%).
11:50am Biden leads by 4,022 in Georgia (0.08%), by over 19,500 in Pennsylvania (0.3%), by 1.2% in Arizona and by 1.8% in Nevada. A large drop of votes from Arizona’s Maricopa county in under two hours could confirm that result. Biden continues to pull away in Pennsylvania and Nevada as more mail is counted.
9:15am Biden’s Georgia lead now 4,270 (0.08%) with Gwinnett county ballots counted. His Pennsylvania lead is over 14,500.
7:30am Biden’s lead in Georgia has increased to almost 1,600 votes. Almost 8,200 mail votes remain, including 4,800 in Dem-heavy Gwinnett county. Biden will further increase his lead. Today is the deadline for up to 9,000 military and overseas votes to arrive, but most of them probably won’t.
7:23am Trump has reduced Biden’s lead in Arizona to 1.3% with 93% in. But the latest batch was much weaker for Trump than previous batches, and puts him well off the pace needed to overtake.
6:45am Biden has also extended his lead in Nevada to 1.6% with 92% in. He’s going to win at least 279 Electoral Votes.
6:43am Saturday Biden also seizes the lead in Pennsylvania, by under 14,000 votes or 0.2%. With 96% counted, there are many more heavily Dem votes for Biden to further expand his lead. This state should be called for Biden soon, putting him over the line with 273 Electoral Votes.
8:35pm Biden seizes the lead in Georgia by 917 votes or 0.02%. There are very few votes outstanding, so Biden’s lead won’t stretch much further, and it is well within recount margin. Nobody will call for Biden yet.
8:06pm Trump’s lead in Georgia drops to just 463 votes.
5:55pm Trump’s Georgia margin has just fallen back to under 1,300.
5:50pm Not much counting in the last hour or so. Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 18,200. Looks like we’ll have to wait til tomorrow morning for Biden to hit the lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
4:07pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 22,600 or 0.3%.
3:37pm Trump’s leads are now 24,500 in Pennsylvania and 1,800 in Georgia.
2:56pm And Pennsylvania keeps going Biden’s way, as Trump’s lead drops to 26,000 or 0.4%.
2:47pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now under 37,000 or 0.5%.
2:27pm Georgia still has over 16,000 votes to count, so Biden is very likely to take the lead.
1:49pm Trump’s leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia now at 42,000 and under 2,000 respectively. Biden is likely to take the lead soon in both states.
1:33pm Back to the US, and Biden’s margin in Arizona keeps tightening, now down to 1.6% with 90% in. The Trump margin in Georgia is down to under 2,500 votes. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is now under 50,000 (0.7%), with plenty of mail still to come.
1:10pm A diversion to New Zealand, where final results of the election three weeks ago gave Labour 65 of the 120 seats, National 33, the Greens and ACT ten each and the Maori party two. Labour won 50.0% of the vote, National 25.6%, the Greens 7.9%, ACT 7.6% and Maori 1.2%. Labour and Maori each gained one seat at National’s expense from the election night results, with Labour’s vote increasing 0.9%.
12:05pm Mail ballots have been going to Biden even in big Trump counties. Nate Silver says that Trump discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, so even in Trump counties, the few Biden voters dominated mail. But there’s a LOT more mail in Biden counties.
11:17am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.0% with 94% in. But Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to 2.1% as late mail votes there favour Trump.
11:12am Trump now ahead in Georgia by just 3,600 votes or 0.1%. Clayton county in Atlanta appears to be the last county with votes outstanding. That’s at 95% in, and Biden’s winning by 85-14. Final votes there could well put Biden ahead.
9:33am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.4% with 93% in.
9:30am Trump’s lead in Georgia now just under 10,000 votes or 0.2%. It appears there are enough votes left for Biden to take the lead. Both Georgia Senate seats are headed for January 5 runoffs as Republican David Perdue’s vote share falls just under 50%.
9:27am 90% of the Nevada ballots remaining are in Democratic favouring Clark county, much of them mail. Biden is very likely to further expand his Nevada lead.
7:12am Biden is winning almost 80% with Pennsylvania mail ballots
7:02am Trump’s lead in Georgia is down to just 0.3% with 98% in.
7:00am In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is down to 1.7% with 92% in. The remaining vote is Dem-heavy mail. Biden is likely to lead comfortably once all votes are counted.
6:53am Friday Biden slightly extended his lead in Nevada on this morning’s counting, to 0.9% with 89% reporting. Nevada’s analyst Jon Ralston is virtually calling for Biden based on where the remaining votes are, and how Democrats have performed.
4:43pm A Pennsylvania win would get Biden 273 Electoral Votes, three above the magic 270. Biden is also currently ahead in Nevada (more votes to be counted tomorrow) and Arizona (late mail favouring Trump there). He is a good chance to win Georgia once all votes are counted. If Biden wins these states, he wins the Electoral College by 306-232, an exact reversal of the 2016 result.
4:35pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is just 2.6% with 89% in. Twitter analysts say Biden is outperforming Clinton’s 2016 margins in the more populous counties and should comfortably win Pennsylvania once all votes are counted. That should occur by Saturday AEDT.
1:30pm Biden’s lead in Arizona narrows to under three points with 86% in. While early mail there was very good for Biden, late mail is good for Trump.
12:45pm Trump’s lead in Georgia down to just 0.8% with 95% reporting. Late votes are very pro-Biden there.
12:27pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now down to three points with 88% in.
11:05am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has fallen to four points with 86% in. Nate Cohn says Biden is likely to win by about two points when all votes are tallied.
9:08am Michigan CALLED for Biden, taking him to 253 Electoral Votes. He’s likely to win Pennsylvania when all mail is counted, and win the election with at least 273 EVs.
6:28am The NYT has just CALLED Wisconsin for Biden; that’s his first state gain from 2016. Trump won Maine’s 2nd district, so it’s now 237 Biden, 214 Trump. Michigan is very likely to give Biden 253 Electoral Votes.
6:25am In the House, Dems lead by 199-185 with 51 races uncalled. Reps have made a net five seat gain, so the Dem majority will be reduced to about 230 seats out of 435.
6:22am Republicans lead in the Senate by 48-47 with five races uncalled. Reps won Maine and Dems Arizona. Two Georgia races are probably headed to runoffs. Dems are likely to win Michigan and Reps North Carolina.
6:15am Thursday With more than 98% counted in Wisconsin, Biden has a 49.4-48.8 lead, and will almost certainly win. He has a 49.6-48.7 lead in Michigan with 94% counted, and should win. Trump still leads by 8 in Pennsylvania with 80% in, but the remaining votes are very pro-Biden. Winning Wisconsin and Michigan would get Biden to 253 Electoral Votes
11:08pm And that’s going to be my last update for today.
11:06pm Nate Cohn says there are more than enough mail ballots outstanding in Pennsylvania for Biden to easily overhaul Trump.
10:30pm That last rural Nevada county is in. Trump only got a 1500 vote margin despite winning almost 80% of the vote there – low population. Biden’s statewide Nevada lead is down to 0.6% or 7,600 votes.
9:32pm The Biden Nevada lead is now just 0.8%, or 9,300 votes. One rural county is yet to report; that county gave Trump a 1400 vote margin in 2016.
9:25pm Biden’s lead in Nevada is down to 1% with 85% in. However, I believe they’ve virtually finished with in-person election day votes, and the rest should be mail that will likely boost Biden.
9:05pm Mail in Michigan should be counted by tomorrow, while Pennsylvania will take until Saturday AEDT.
9:00pm I had a break from this. Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin by 49.3-49.0 with 89% in. It’s likely that remaining mail ballots there will be good for him.
7:20pm The NYT calls Maine for Biden. He leads by 227-213.
7:15pm I’ve just published an article for The Conversation about these results. Democrats only appear likely to gain a net one Senate seat, so Republicans would still have a 52-48 majority. That would be a very disappointing outcome for Democrats.
7:08pm The AP has confirmed Fox News’ call for Biden in Arizona.
5:50pm Biden leads by 5 in Nevada with 74% in, probably enough. He leads by 6 in Arizona with 80% in.
5:15pm The NYT calls Minnesota for Biden; that takes him to 223 Electoral Votes.
4:17pm And the NYT Needle now gives Biden a 0.4% lead in Georgia with 79% in.
4:15pm Biden leads in Nebraska’s second district by ten points with 85% in. If he wins that plus Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan, he has 270 Electoral Votes.
4:05pm Georgia is looking better for Biden. The NYT Needle has it at just Trump +1 with 78% counted. North Carolina isn’t over yet as mail ballots can arrive after election day. The needle is at Trump +1.2.
3:50pm The Iowa Selzer poll that had Trump winning by seven is likely to be on target again. He leads there by 4.5% with plenty of election day votes to come.
3:37pm Fox News has CALLED Arizona for Biden and the Dem Senate candidate.
3:15pm The Senate so far has the Reps gaining Alabama, while the Dems gain Colorado. The Reps have held SC and are likely to hold NC. One Georgia race is headed for a runoff, and the other could go that way too.
3:10pm And the NYT has called NH for Biden, which gets him 209 EVs.
3:05pm California, Washington and Oregon are called for Biden. That gives him a 205-112 lead in called races. But Trump is going to win Florida, Texas, Ohio and very probably North Carolina and Georgia.
2:35pm Two US networks have CALLED New Hampshire for Biden. He was expected to win there, but that’s his first real good news of the night.
2:17pm Trump now leading in Ohio by four points with 72% in. And in NC, he’s taken the lead by 0.4% with 88% in.
2:10pm Biden has an 11-point lead in Arizona’s early vote, which is an estimated 69% of all Arizona votes.
2:00 pm It’s looking bleak for Biden in the south and southwest as election day votes erode his early vote leads. It’s the same in Ohio. So Biden is probably going to need Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Those states count mail later.
1:42pm Biden leads by two in Ohio with 62% in, but the election day vote is likely to win it for Trump.
1:34pm Trump has just taken the lead by 0.1% in Texas with 73% in. Biden has been weak with Hispanics, like in Florida.
1:30pm Trump keeps gaining in NC as the election day vote is counted. He’s now less than two points behind, and the NYT needle is giving him a 92% chance to win.
1:20pm The NYT Needle has Trump winning NC by 1.4% with 72% reporting, and Georgia by 4%. Nate Cohn says completed towns in New Hampshire are showing a 6% margin shift to Biden.
12:40pm The NYT needle has Trump winning Georgia by 4 points and North Carolina by 0.9. Biden currently leads in NC by 7 points with 66% in, but most of that is early vote. And no surprise that Arkansas was called quickly for Trump.
12:15pm Biden leads in Texas by 13.5 points with 26% in. Remember this would be early votes.
12:12pm Democrats would dearly love to knock off current Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. But Kentucky is too right wing; McConnell currently leads by 25 points.
12:09pm Biden leads in Ohio by 18 points with 31% in. However, that’s mostly early vote from the big population centres, and Trump will improve.
12:05pm Massachusetts, Connecticut Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois called for Biden, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi for Trump. Biden has an 85 to 55 Electoral College lead over Trump. These states were all easy calls.
12 noon South Carolina called for Trump
11:43am Virginia has been called for Biden, West Virginia for Trump. The NYT Needle gives Trump a 94% chance to win Florida – game over there.
11:30am The NYT needle has Trump winning Florida by 3.5 points, owing to a dreadfully weak performance by Dems in Miami-Dade county. At least the problems with Cuban Americans are unlikely to affect other states.
11:20am Biden leads in Florida by 51-48 with an estimated 31% in. Don’t think that’s good enough given election day votes and the Panhandle.
11:10am The New York Times has called Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Biden.
10:47am Owing to a massive early vote margin in Lexington, Biden has a current two-point lead in Kentucky. It’s not likely to last, though.
10:05am The partisan split in Broward keeps widening in Democrats’ favour.
9:22am Republicans voted heavily in the morning, but their gains have slowed down dramatically. This tweet thread from Nate Silver shows how the Dem-Rep-Oth composition of Broward county, Florida has changed during the day. Broward is a very strong Democratic county, but it’s the trend that counts. This does not include votes cast before election day.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The final FiveThirtyEight national poll aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.4% lead over Donald Trump (51.8% to 43.4%). In the key states, Biden leads by 8.4% in Wisconsin, 7.9% in Michigan, 4.7% in Pennsylvania, 2.6% in Arizona and 2.5% in Florida.
The worry for Biden is that Pennsylvania, the “tipping-point” state, is almost four points more favourable for Trump than the national aggregate. As a result, the final FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 10% chance to win the Electoral College, but a mere 3% chance to win the popular vote.
For the Senate, the FiveThirtyEight Classic forecast gives Democrats a 78% win probability, with the most likely outcome a 52-48 Democratic Senate. Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 48 and 56 seats after the election.
Poll closing times
All times given here are today Australian Eastern Daylight Time. Polls have suggested the early vote will be strongly pro-Biden, but the election day vote will be strongly pro-Trump. Early leads in a given state are likely to depend on whether that state counts election day or early votes first. Poll closing times are from The Green Papers.
Some states span two time zones, with voting finishing an hour later in the trailing zone. US media will not call states until all polls in that state are closed. The most important early state is Florida: if Biden wins, he’s almost assured of victory, but a Trump win means we could be waiting for mail votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan, possibly for days.
10am. The first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be easy Trump wins.
11am. Polls close in Georgia and most of Florida. In Florida, early votes will be released soon after polls close and election day votes are counted relatively quickly. Here’s the catch: polls in most of Florida close at 11am, but there’s a very right-wing part called the Panhandle. The Panhandle is in a different time zone, and closes one hour after the rest of Florida. In 2016 and 2018, the Panhandle caused agony for hopeful Democrats.
11:30am. Polls close in North Carolina and Ohia. I believe early votes will be counted first in both states.
12 noon. Polls close in Pennsylvania and most of Michigan and Texas (small parts of Michigan and Texas close at 1pm). I believe election day votes will be counted first in Pensylvania and Michigan, while early votes are counted first in Texas.
1pm. Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. In Arizona, a large share of the overall vote will be mail, and that should be out for most of Arizona within an hour of polls closing. Mail received after election day can be accepted.
2pm. Polls close in Iowa, where I believe early votes will be counted quickly.
3pm. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. These are all Democratic strongholds that should be called immediately for Biden. If he’s already gained enough Trump 2016 states, this could be when he is declared president-elect.
5pm. The final polls close in Alaska’s western time zone.
“Rep. Ro Khanna
@RepRoKhanna
We will stop funding the Saudi war in Yemen.”
If the Dems keep this promise it could save a lot of lives. There’s thousands of malnourished children who will die if the war continues.
Instead we got Morrison.
Of course George Christensen could be correct about voter corruption, he knows all there is to know about corruption, he could even be an expert.
What a wonderful headline: https://www.ayrshiredailynews.co.uk/post/south-ayrshire-golf-club-owner-loses-2020-presidential-election
Another summary of what happens next:
“In the months between election day on the first Tuesday in November and inauguration day on 20 January, the transition of power passes through a few steps which always have amounted to formalities. Electors meet in each state and send their votes to congress, where the result is certified.
Despite Trump’s false claims that the election was stolen, and the decision of some prominent Republicans to support that claim, there is currently no reason to expect the transfer of power will be any different this time. Suggestions by the Trump allies that Republican-led states might appoint electors who do not represent the will of the people have been dismissed wholesale by state leaders.
The Associated Press breaks down what happens next:
— When American citizens vote for a presidential candidate, they really are voting for electors in their state. Those electors in most cases are committed to support the voters’ candidate of choice. The number of electors is equal to the number of electoral votes held by each state. State laws vary on how electors are selected but, generally, a slate of electors for each party’s candidate is chosen at state party conventions or by a vote of a party’s central committee.
— After Election Day, states count and certify the results of the popular vote. When completed, each governor is required by law to prepare “as soon as practicable” documents known as “Certificates of Ascertainment” of the vote. The certificates list the electors’ names and the number of votes cast for the winner and loser. The certificate, carrying the seal of each state, is sent to the archivist of the United States.
— Dec. 8 is the deadline for resolving election disputes at the state level. All state recounts and court contests over presidential election results are to be completed by this date.
— Dec. 14: Electors vote by paper ballot in their respective states and the District of Columbia. Thirty-three states and D.C. have laws or party regulations requiring electors to vote the same way the popular vote goes in the state, and in some states, electors can even be replaced or subjected to penalties, according to the Congressional Research Service. The votes for president and vice president are counted and the electors sign six “Certificates of the Vote.” The certificates, along with other official papers, are sent by registered mail to various officials, including the president of the Senate.
— Dec. 23: The certificates must be delivered to the designated officials. If they are not delivered, the law provides alternative avenues for getting the results to Washington.
— Jan. 6, 2021: The House and Senate hold a joint session to count the electoral votes. If one ticket has received 270 or more electoral votes, the president of the Senate, currently Vice President Mike Pence, announces the results.
Members of Congress may object to returns from any state as they are announced. Objections must be made in writing by at least one member of the House and one in the Senate. If the objection meets certain requirements, each chamber meets separately to debate the objection for a maximum of two hours. Afterward, each chamber votes to accept or reject the objection. Back in joint session, the results of the respective votes are announced. Any objection to a state’s electoral vote has to be approved by both houses in order for any contested votes to be excluded.
If neither presidential candidate wins at least 270 electoral votes, the House decides the election, based on the 12th Amendment to the Constitution. If required, the House would elect the president through a majority vote.
— Jan. 20: The president-elect is sworn into office on Inauguration Day.”
(guardian)
Even if Trump does these mini stunts, he will fail due to:
— After Election Day, states count and certify the results of the popular vote. When completed, each governor is required by law to prepare “as soon as practicable” documents known as “Certificates of Ascertainment” of the vote. The certificates list the electors’ names and the number of votes cast for the winner and loser. The certificate, carrying the seal of each state, is sent to the archivist of the United States.
His claims mount to nothing.
Trump Defeat Leaves Chastened White House Wondering What’s Next
President Donald Trump’s aides described a leadership vacuum in the White House on Saturday after he lost re-election and internal finger-pointing began, even as his associates wondered how he would grapple with defeat.
The race was called while Trump was at his golf course in northern Virginia. Many of his exhausted aides had headed home for the weekend, to rest and to escape the latest coronavirus outbreak sweeping the West Wing.
Outside the White House, a jubilant crowd of Joe Biden supporters from across the Washington region gathered to celebrate on what the city has named Black Lives Matter Plaza. The halls of the White House itself were largely empty.
There was no all-hands staff meeting or memo on how officials should react. It was a marked contrast from the scene four years ago, when, after Trump won election, President Barack Obama gathered his own despondent staff in the Oval Office for a pep talk.
The void has left staffers unsure what’s next. Trump’s advisers are split on how far to take various legal fights, delaying consideration of strategy both politically and in the courts.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-07/trump-defeat-leaves-chastened-white-house-wondering-what-s-next?srnd=premium-asia
Zero @ 7:12.
Trump told by the USA “you’re fired”. Finally some good comes out of 2020.
Trump does not plan to concede any time soon, aides and allies indicate
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – After the declaration on Saturday that Democrat Joe Biden had won the race for the White House, Republican President Donald Trump and his allies made one thing clear: he does not plan to concede anytime soon.
The president, who has spent months trying to undermine the election results with unproven allegations of fraud, pledged on Saturday to go forward with a legal strategy that he hopes will overturn state results that gave Biden the win in Tuesday’s vote. Trump aides and Republican allies, while somewhat conflicted on how to proceed, largely supported his strategy or remained silent.
“The simple fact is this election is far from over. Joe Biden has not been certified as the winner of any states, let alone any of the highly contested states headed for mandatory recounts, or states where our campaign has valid and legitimate legal challenges that could determine the ultimate victor,” Trump said in a statement released by his campaign around midday.
The president’s allies and advisers privately admitted that the former New York businessman’s chances of overturning the election results and staying in the White House were slim.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump/trump-does-not-plan-to-concede-any-time-soon-aides-and-allies-indicate-idUSKBN27N0YE
Will Trumpists, knowing that the vote is ” rigged “even bother to turn out in 2024 ?
Sinodinos made a bit of a fool of himself on insiders.
Thanks for that info Itza, was very informative.
I expect any Republican Governor of a Biden state would be well aware of the consequences of playimg silly buggers with the electoral college and would not dare do so.
“Democrats would need to win both runoffs to make it a 50-50 tied Senate, with Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote.”…
But even a 49 Dem- 51 Rep could be workable, as it’s not unlikely that, now that Trump is out of the way, a moderate degree of decency may return to some GOP senators and at least one could be convinced to vote with the Democrats on specific legislation, with Harris casting the decisive vote.
Can I also add my voice to the chorus of commendation for William and Adrian?
Spectular work. Your indefatiguable efforts at keeping us informed have been superb.
“Vogon Poetsays:
Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 7:36 pm
Will Trumpists, knowing that the vote is ” rigged “even bother to turn out in 2024 ?”…
Ha, ha, ha…. Touche!
So let me get this right –
NT election – Labor re-elected
NZ – Labor re-elected
ACT – Labor (Greens) re-elected
Qld – Labor re-elected
USA – Democrats win
The year is ending better than it started. The forces of evil are being rejected.
Hugoaugogo:
Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 2:56 pm
Dear, yours is tantamount to a thesis.
Kirky. Yes. I’m almost giddy with it. (Although that could be the shiraz.) It doesn’t make up for politics 2019, but it sure helps.
Re 3z @7:46 (upvote)
frednk says Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 7:36 pm
How so?
ItzaDream says Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 9:15 am
I think Seenodonors started getting a bit irritated with Speers’s gotcha questions. I’m not sure what the point of the questions were.
Who is likely for Biden’s first cabinet?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-cabinet-picks-possible-choices-433431#back-to-top
Hi C@t
Cud whisperer? lol
Alpo @ #4065 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 4:45 pm
Susan Collins will 100% support the end of the filibuster and will probably get on board with medicare for all, and a massive green new deal and Mitch and his gavel will be ok with that.
Hey, Cud! I also provide the juiciest grass for well-behaved bovines. 🙂
Alpo
For all the wonderful things said about Biden and how he likes to work cooperatively, there really is no hope for the Republicans. They will obstruct at every opportunity. There’s reasons to hope that the Dems will get the runoffs.
I just had one of my insightful brainwaves, lol. I was wondering why Rupert Murdoch seemed more benignly predisposed to Joe Biden as President than he ever was towards President Obama, and then it hit me. Rupert is a Papal Knight of the ….Catholic Church and Joe Biden is…a devout Catholic.
Cud Chewer @ #4005 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 8:27 pm
Cud, I posted an article earlier today:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-first-executive-orders-measures/2020/11/07/9fb9c1d0-210b-11eb-b532-05c751cd5dc2_story.html
He’s going to go around the Senate if they don’t work with him. Simple as that. He’ll be doing a reverse ferret on them, in the new Post Trump era of American politics. Using their own tricks back at them. What can they do? Complain?
3z @ #3994 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 7:46 pm
+1
Kirky @ #3996 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 7:47 pm
You mean Lars von Trier, nath and mundo? 🙂
This article at 538 is an interesting analysis of the US election voting. It makes the point that the election is more a repudiation of Trump than the Republicans. The Republicans more successfully held on in Senate results, and even won back some House seats because their vote their was several points higher. So despite the theories that Trump “got out the vote” a significant number of people who turned up to vote Republican down the ticket, did NOT vote for Trump.
That being said, it is a good win, by at least +4%, probably more. They are still counting postal votes in the bigger non-swing states, and most are Democrat.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/
Alpo how do you negotiate with terrorists? Mitch is still around.
Socrates, one commentator I heard to day said that Trump managed to turn out to vote both more of his base and more previously non-voting independents. The latter were more likely to vote against Trump but still vote Republican down ballot. That diluted the effect of higher turnout on the Democrat side.
This dynamic will shift when it comes to the runoff Senate elections. A lot of people who were motivated to turn out to vote purely to dump Trump won’t turn out in January. The hope is that the Democrats can get an advantage in terms of turnout.
C@t lol.
Here’s a little secret. When people are nice to me, I’m nice to them 🙂
Cud
The execrable Mitch McConnell does not control the votes of all the Republican semators.
Romney for one will vote with his comscience always and can always be negotiated with. His only comcern would be getting rolled in a Utah Repbublican primary, but that’s four long year away.
“Using their own tricks back at them. What can they do? Complain?”… Yes, I agree that Biden will use executive orders, just as Trump did, and yes the Republicans will not be able to complain. But I truly think that Biden is more ambitious than that. He genuinely wants to return politics to some degree of decency, for the sake of the future of democracy in the USA. He has enough experience in Congress to have known better times, when the GOP could produce senators such as John McCain, for instance.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2018/aug/27/john-mccain-remembered-defending-obama-from-racist-questions-video
In any event, time will tell.
Is Romney or any of the “moderate” Republican senators gong to vote for a 2 trillion renewable energy spend or vote to raise taxes on the rich? That’s the problem.
Alpo one of the issues I have with Biden is that he was VP under Obama. That administration suffered from being too kind and decent.
“Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:40 pm
Alpo how do you negotiate with terrorists? Mitch is still around.”
By not calling them terrorists in the first place. Mitch is disgusting yes, but if Biden can defeat him through better capacity to negotiate and attracting GOP Senators to “cross the floor”, Mitch’s star will start to fade away….
This is exactly what Trump is angling for. He said so already:
He’s probably already strategising with various Repugs to do it when the time comes.
Not that he’ll succeed, of course. The Dems are still in the Majority in the House.
I said Trump schadenfreude was #2 on my list. Mocking him is probably #3.
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2020/11/05/its-best-of-three-hysterical-donald-trump-tells-biden/
Tie in the senate, dems lead the house.
“Cud Chewersays:
Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 9:00 pm
Alpo one of the issues I have with Biden is that he was VP under Obama. That administration suffered from being too kind and decent.”…
The Obama administration suffered from the ravages of the GFC from day one. That set the stage for “disappointment” in the hard left who wanted to let the banks and big companies rot in hell, which would have likely caused a Great Depression-2… Guess who would have suffered the most during a GD-2, the Banks CEOs? … Obama had to intervene to stabilise the financial system, then the Dems lost control of Congress… and the rest is history. Still, he managed to pass Obamacare (and many other pieces of legislation) which Trump fought hard to repeal.
The problem with legislation and regulations they can be repealed at any given time.
They needed to be in the constitution.
President-elect Biden served in the US Senate for 36 years and as the Presidemt of the Senate for another eight.
The Senate has always been (until perhaps recently) been proudly collegial and dignified. The absolute opprbrium with which Ted Cruz has been held by even Republicam senators is testament to this.
It’s no wonder that Biden wants to restore dignity and compromise to America’s political institutions. It will certainly not be easy with media driven polarisation. One can hope that there’s a Trumpist desertion of Fox News to fringe dwellers like OAN. And Fox – in order to keep its ratings – pivots to the (srill rather comservative) centre.
Cud Chewer @ #4087 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 8:00 pm
When I listened to the speeches today, by Harris and then Biden, I noticed anger. Controlled, deep, honest anger. It came out from time to time in little flashes. I think (I hope) that “nice” will take a back seat or be reserved as an occasional reward. We’ll see.
BK @ #4006 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 5:03 pm
Not just that, but access to early/absentee voting was expanded in most states due to the pandemic. It’s probably not fair to attribute any increased turnout to enthusiasm for Trump (or Biden), because the rules are so different between 2020 and 2016.
Mexicanbeemer @ #4015 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 5:18 pm
Why? I thought there’s a fairly well-established trend of Trumpists not turning out for Republican (or even, Trumpy Republican) candidates. They only seem to show up when Trump himself is on the ballot.
Which is why the Dems were able to build such a large majority in the House (and equally, why their majority has been reduced in this election).
C@tmomma @ #4090 Sunday, November 8th, 2020 – 8:00 pm
Seems pointless as anything other than a delaying tactic. Each challenge fails unless both chambers agree it should stand, which they won’t.