Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Around the traps”

  1. VicGovDHHS@VicGovDHHS

    Yesterday there were 2 new cases & no lost lives reported. Cases with unknown source and the rolling 14 day average in Metro Melb are down, average in Regional is stable

  2. The big takeaway from the two elections is that representative democracy gives good government.

    Both New Zealand and the ACT are good governments rewarded by voters.

    Polling shows that Labor in Victoria and Queensland are also being rewarded by voters for the same reason. Take out the different election systems and demographics and that’s what’s left.

    South Australia and Tasmania also prove this point. Being a competent government that takes expert evidence seriously gets rewarded by voters.

    I know this is stating the obvious but with the deluge of propaganda we get it’s well worth repeating.

  3. https://twitter.com/VicGovDHHS/status/1317583603933564928
    VicGovDHHS @VicGovDHHS
    Yesterday there were 2 new cases & no lost lives reported. Cases with unknown source and the rolling 14 day average in Metro Melb are down, average in Regional is stable. More info available later today. https://dhhs.vic.gov.au/averages-easing-restrictions-covid-19 #COVID19VicData
    8:49 AM · Oct 18, 2020

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-18/victoria-coronavirus-restrictions-daniel-andrews/12772242
    Victoria’s coronavirus restrictions are about to ease. Here’s what Daniel Andrews is expected to do

  4. zoomster

    I do wish people would stop saying Gladys has been a wonderful (perfect?) leader. Her reputation on the environment, bad “rebuilding decisions”, allowing developers free rein, giving in to lobbyists (alcohol and gambling, anyone?) and probably countless others I’m not aware of, is the opposite of “wonderful”.

  5. Steve777

    Re Poroti @8:27.

    That front page is ridiculous. What is she, a soapie star? Maybe a “Married at First Sight” contestant?

    Yep, just how they want to make it. Nothing to do with the corruption NSW is marinated in.

  6. lizzie

    As I do keep saying, the border closure down here has been very poorly run.

    Even the local Liberal MP has been critical of the way his government has handled it.

  7. phoenixRED @ #401 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 8:56 am

    VicGovDHHS@VicGovDHHS

    Yesterday there were 2 new cases & no lost lives reported. Cases with unknown source and the rolling 14 day average in Metro Melb are down, average in Regional is stable

    In breaking news, Victoria’s Covid infection rate doubles overnight!

    Andrews must resign.

  8. Morrison is not expecting to be around at ths next Federal election regardless whether its held in 2021 or 2022.
    The opportunist doesn’t do self evaluation but rather finds “tractors” to bury the facts. Morrison has exceeded his own expectations and would now realise the “chook house” requires holding a shovel.
    As soon as ths virus reality explodes with a massive economically driven re-boot, the carpet bagger will be all “Jen and the gurls”. He can go and hang out a maccas with the other world leaders.
    The dawn of another summer will ignite some unanswered questions regarding “sauce” all over an empty plate of promises!
    For the few voters still not sure of the need for a crime commission, the Greens have tipped in, with this weeks elections having stripped enough votes from the conservative forces to gain some leverage.
    Australia will eventually realise the folly of “everyones a winner”style government and toss the plainly, obviously corrupt Liberal governments into the confines of the degraded social, physical and deadly environment they have promoted and institutionalised with a “prize for every child” mantra of governance.
    Rudd has created a sharply pointed and effective action to rid the nation of the “Americans” media shenanigans. The liberals will wilt without his support.
    The Nationals will also wilt in the next conservative drought, just hanging around like the useless weeds they have become. Look at the condition of the “inland river system” now confined to the history books. The National now no more than an empty shop in prosperous dream driven by a good harvest in the face of desolation.
    In the meantime……………

  9. ACT Election 2020: Greens big winners on election night

    The mood at the ACT Greens election night party at the Polish White Eagle Club in Turner was electric.

    The party had defied expectations, recording a swing of about 3 per cent.

    They looked to win three seats, there was also a strong chance The Greens could win more, a feat not pulled off since the 2008 ACT election.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6973134/absolutely-thrilled-act-greens-big-winners-on-election-night/

  10. Many thanks BK from a rainy Newcastle for the Dawn Patrol.

    Information has come to hand regarding the apparent sudden hair growth of a supposed national leader ……

    Inside sources reveal that the gentleman in question is addicted to the award winning Preparation Z .

    Usage details

    Shrinking the head also causes an explosion of compressed high volume bullshit previously contained within the skull.

  11. ACT election: resurgent Greens to push for policy ‘reset’ after Labor victory

    The ACT chief minister Andrew Barr and the Greens leader Shane Rattenbury are set for talks this week on minority government, following Saturday’s election.

    Labor and the Greens are set to hold talks this week on forming another minority government in the ACT, with the minor party seeking a policy “reset”.

    With the counting of votes from Saturday’s election due to continue well into next week, Labor appears to have won at least 11 seats and the Greens three, out of the 25-seat assembly in the national capital.

    The Liberals could hold as few as eight seats, with the Greens securing as many as six if complex preference flows go the minor party’s way.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/18/act-election-greens-to-push-for-policy-reset-after-labor-victory

  12. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/leadership/crown-resorts-board-cleanout-underway-says-chairman-helen-coonan/news-story/2456fcbc2c2b54197c1251a2151252b3

    “I’ve commenced conversation with some directors relating to an orderly process for them to leave the board and to get on some more independent directors.”

    What can one sensibly say about this item – well – not a lot but perhaps one of the comments says it best –

    You first Helen !!!!

  13. Barney

    Wrong wrong.

    It’s part of the beachhead that has seen the Greens advance.
    Swings TO the Greens are not maintaining the status quo.

    The Long term trend is clear.

    Progressive policy wins elections.
    Being partners with the Greens gets you more years in government if you are a labour party .

    Edit: in the ACT that’s going to be 23 years. That’s Menzies longevity for ACT Labor.

  14. ‘He (Dan Andrews) has devastated the Victorian economy’
    Says Jennifer Hewett on Insiders.

    You know, in the way same way that he (Scrott Morrison) has devestated the economy?

  15. Gambling never made sense to me. I have my money, you have yours, I don’t want to take your money and I don’t want to give you mine. The whole premise of gambling is dishonest – you want something for nothing, tricking someone into handing over some of their funds.

    But a lot of people want to gamble, so should it be legal? Well, banning something that lots of otherwise law-abiding people do doesn’t work, it just leads to organised crime setting up to fill an economic demand. On the other hand, legalised gambling is more often than not infiltrated by or closely associated with some very “colourful” characters and dodgy dealings. On balance I come down on the side of legalisation but legalised gambling needs to be very closely regulated.

  16. guytaur @ #422 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 6:43 am

    Barney

    Wrong wrong.

    It’s part of the beachhead that has seen the Greens advance.
    Swings TO the Greens are not maintaining the status quo.

    The Long term trend is clear.

    Progressive policy wins elections.
    Being partners with the Greens gets you more years in government if you are a labour party .

    When voters start rejecting conservative Governments, especially at national levels, you might have point.

  17. @andrewjgiles
    ·
    4m
    Good on @vanOnselenP for acknowledging his perspective on Victoria is that of an outsider (on #insiders) and for a thoughtful, balanced contribution.

    The less said of Jennifer Hewitt’s, the better. How offensive to talk of Stockholm Syndrome.

  18. Jennifer Hewett could do with a holiday in a European country of choice, living on a cleaners wage, in rented accommodation, feeding a couple of kids, fighting for residency status as winter approaches.
    What a white privileged twit!

  19. After Scomoes underwhelming tour of Qld. (where he was tasked with holding the hand of the exceedingly lacklustre Qld opposition team) the LNP which has promised to get the budget in surplus whilst sinking 33 billion into the Bruce highway got this response from Scomo “We are getting ready to ensure we understand the full costs and what’s involved,” that makes it as sure as eggs doesn’t it? This is Scomoes big problem, he is a verbose windbag who politicises and applies conservative dogma and religious hangups to all his pronouncements. He found a rhythm to his CV response after a poor start but that fell by the wayside fairly quickly to be replaced by his poster girl Gladys position. With Qld to restrictive and hard hearted on borders( go figure in this one,maybe should have used orange boats to send them back)and victoria losing control.WA left off alltogether. WA left out if this Newscorp endorsed narrative along the lib. states. Anyway ALP should be able to see opportunities with a proactive government providing solutions rather than private enterprise rip rip woodchip style cowboys.Also seeing that laissez fair capitalism and perpetual tax cuts are no solution to a better life for anyone other than the already well heeled.

  20. Barney

    Thanks for the concession.

    Greens being part of good government is just waiting for the scales to fall off the voters eyes.

    No more “extreme Greens” propaganda.

    Also no excuse for Federal Labor to blame the Greens.

    Voters like the Greens in government.
    Time for Labor to get with the times.

    Having a strong bold progressive agenda wins elections.
    Just campaign like Biden.

  21. guytaur @ #433 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 6:59 am

    Barney

    Thanks for the concession.

    Greens being part of good government is just waiting for the scales to fall off the voters eyes.

    No more “extreme Greens” propaganda.

    Also no excuse for Federal Labor to blame the Greens.

    Voters like the Greens in government.
    Time for Labor to get with the times.

    Having a strong bold progressive agenda wins elections.
    Just campaign like Biden.

    😆 😆 😆

    I forgot that things are different in guytaurworld.

    You really are full of it.

  22. Been There @ #353 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 11:41 pm

    And our Richard didn’t get left out!

    ““You had an important place in Australian society on the ABC and you gave it up to be a pop star … with a big cheque … and now you’re on to this sort of stuff. That shows what a 24-carat pissant you are, Richard, that’s for sure.” (To Richard Carleton)”.

    Gotta love him!

    By the way any thoughts from the resident anti progressive line in regards to the resounding progressive wins in the Australasian theater?

    My thoughts?

    This trend of progressive voting to continue, not only Nationally but world wide, when people finally realise that big mouth blabberism (if that’s a word) and inflated promises does not advance the well being of the community.

    Poor grammar at times, but I hope you get what I mean.

    Cheers Lars, Taylormade, Mundo, Nath and the rest of the you.

    You have seen your future!

    Goodnight All!

    Been There, you moron, I don’t wish to out myself, suffice to say I’d put my Keating adoring pedigree up against yours any day – with documentation.
    But there you go.
    Who can be bothered with someone who clearly lacks the comprehension skills.

  23. Can’t they just sue for breach of copyright?

    Carla Marinucci@cmarinucci·
    2h
    Lead singer/songwriter for “Creedence Clearwater Revival” says he is issuing “cease and desist” order to Trump for using his iconic song, “Fortunate Son” in campaign rallies

  24. Barney

    Yes you are full of denial.

    Look at the election results.

    A swing to the Greens. Voters rewarding the Greens for years in government.

    In NZ Labour after being in partnership with the Greens saw Labour with a landslide victory and its bye bye Winston Peters.

  25. lizzie @ #403 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 9:49 am

    @andrewjgiles
    ·
    4m
    Good on @vanOnselenP for acknowledging his perspective on Victoria is that of an outsider (on #insiders) and for a thoughtful, balanced contribution.

    The less said of Jennifer Hewitt’s, the better. How offensive to talk of Stockholm Syndrome.

    I would have thought Jennifer Hewitt would have been the best one to talk about Stockholm Syndrome, not as far as Victorians are concerned (and why not refer to Tasmania or WA as well?), simply because she has conformed herself to the Coalition party line for decades.

  26. C@t

    She has a very narrow window to see the world. Always the same viewpoint.

    Anyway, as a Victorian I now feel despised by all the commentator class.

  27. Steve777 @ #410 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 9:18 am

    Linked by BK in Dawn Patrol “The irrationality of the Coalition’s obsession with coal and gas”:

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-irrationality-of-the-coalitions-obsession-with-coal-and-gas-,14421

    It’s not irrational if the Coalition government’s aim is to support fossil fuels. The obvious question is “why would they do that”, which has an obvious answer.

    It is not just the Coalition that is obsessed with coal and gas. So are the Gibbons in the Labor party.

    So much so, that they want Labor to adopt the Coalition’s energy policies.

    It is indeed irrational. But not surprising.

  28. Cat

    I am waiting for you to proudly recognise the ACT is the most successful Labor government in Australia.

    They have just won a fourth term.

    An amazing result after 19 years of government.

  29. I didn’t know John Fogerty was a veteran. Trump’s the apotheosis of what John would’ve had in mind when writing that song, a cowardly, venal blaggard always there to cream off the profits. To use this song is a travesty. And fuck the bastard for ruining “You can’t always get what you want” too.

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