Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Around the traps”

  1. I have read that when Morrison was ‘unable’ to return to Sydney and stayed in Qld overnight, he attended a Liberal fundraiser. I have no idea whether this is true but it seems in line with his normal deceptive behaviour.

  2. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #426 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 8:48 am

    When voters start rejecting conservative Governments, especially at national levels, you might have point.

    Even then you have to be careful. Like if the U.S. rejects Trump in a couple of weeks, it won’t be because people liked the Democrats’ policies. It’ll be because they couldn’t stand Trump and his shitshow.

    Always dangerous to conflate a win with ideological support. Especially in systems which entrench “lesser of two evils” style voting.

  3. Plibersek said, correctly, that some students would fall behind because of the Covid shutdowns. No one bothers to add that in Vic, a special group of teachers is being hired to tutor the disadvantaged.

  4. lizzie @ #416 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:24 am

    Plibersek said, correctly, that some students would fall behind because of the Covid shutdowns. No one bothers to add that in Vic, a special group of teachers is being hired to tutor the disadvantaged.

    Yes a significant investment in tutoring from the Vic Govt for 2021 to get students in need back up to speed.

    These things are filtered out of the news cycle by the corporate media with an anti-Dan agenda.

  5. Cat

    The biggest lesson for Labor. Stop blaming the Greens.

    NZ Labour got an increased vote after minority government with the Greens.

    All the myth here that Labor loses elections after minority government in partnership with the Greens is exactly that. It’s a Labor myth as an excuse to blame the Greens.

    The lesson is that working with the Greens means longer term Labor government.

    Sometimes unlike in the ACT the Greens cannot combat the Labor it’s time factor. Or Labor mistakes in campaigning.

    The lesson is that the Greens are not toxic to Labor winning elections.

  6. lizzie @ #419 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:30 am

    The premier Daniel Andrews will hold his daily press conference at 11am today.

    Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    26m
    Big day for the
    @MelbourneVixens
    .

    This season hasn’t been easy – but their strength and determination have been an inspiration to young athletes right around Victoria.

    I know they’ll do our state proud – and we’ll do our best to wrap up the presser before the first whistle.

    Go the VIXENS !!!

  7. guytaur

    As I said earlier, where the Greens work WITH Labor rather than against it, they’re rewarded.

    When they side with Labor to attack right of centre parties, they are rewarded.

    They have also shown that they don’t have to go after Labor seats to gain those rewards.

  8. Rex

    I think you are right about the cause.

    There has to be a reason why Federal Labor cannot crow the success of its long term ACT government.

    This is something for Labor to be proud of. Not pretending that Labor is a loser for winning elections and remaining on the Treasury benchers

  9. guytaur @ #425 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:39 am

    Rex

    I think you are right about the cause.

    There has to be a reason why Federal Labor cannot crow the success of its long term ACT government.

    This is something for Labor to be proud of. Not pretending that Labor is a loser for winning elections and remaining on the Treasury benchers

    NSW/Qld/Federal Labor are under the policy control of fossil fuel unions.

    This creates the Green wedge that causes them so much electoral pain.

  10. guytaur

    How does the ACT prove me wrong? Are the ACT Greens actively undermining and attacking Labor? I thought they were working well together.

    But I’ll take your word for it that the ACT Greens spend their whole time attacking Labor.

  11. BSA Bob:

    I’ve just Googled and remarkably the band was only together officially as CCR for 4 years, yet their songs remain iconic 50+ years later.

  12. Zoomster

    Your response is why Labor is losing elections

    That’s bunker mentality propaganda.

    News for you. It’s Labor that’s the problem not the Greens.

    Only in parts of Australian Labor is it impossible to work with the Greens. Unique out of the world.

  13. Of the little media attacks in the ACT election I saw, it was actually Labor attacking Greens as ‘crazy’ about gas that was most prominent.

    ACT Labor takes swipe at Greens over ‘crazy’ gas phase-out plan
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-labor-takes-swipe-at-greens-over-crazy-gas-phase-out-plan-21216/

    Now where have I heard that ‘teh Greens are crazy’ line before?

    As Rex points out the biggest difference is how sold out the ALP is to coal, gas and fossil fuel interests in NSW and Qld. The ALP is obviously like a rabbit in the headlights of Murdoch and not immune to using the NewsCorp media when they think it might be politically expedient.

    How can the ALP be considered a real partner in climate action when there’s so much support and subsidy for the likes of Adani, Narrabri, Beetaloo and other fossil fuel projects? Even in the face of ever growing public pressure and hopefully collapse in the fossil fuels trade in the not too distant future.

    The ACT has no minerals council or vested interests like the yellow queenslander running partisan campaigns of such mercenary self interest either

  14. In the minds of many Australians the Greens have been successfully but wrongly painted as extremist by the political and media wings of the corporate oligarchy (a.k.a. the L/NP and Newscorp).

  15. ”Political influence, you mean.”

    There is a lot of overlap. In particular, the Liberal party is the political vehicle of corporate Australia.

  16. Read Van Badham’s column. Morrison = brain flow.
    After reading an article on brain flow all I’ll say is my brain hurt.

    Anyway,
    FLOW Conditions

    Clear goals
    Challenge
    Concentration
    Feedback
    Effortlessness
    Control
    Selflessness
    Timelessness

    Not sure about selflessness but it could explain the Waikiki wank.

  17. PvO went and ruined it all by saying the state of the Economy will ensure a Morrison win at the next election.

    ● If the Economy is doing well, he’ll take the credit.

    ● If the economy is a disaster he’ll say “Imagine how much bigger a disaster it would be under Labor”.

    Can’t lose, according to PvO, who prefaced his remarks by saying that, “Rightly or wrongly, Labor is perceived as weak on The Economy.”

    “Rightly or wrongly”?

    Perhaps if journalists like van Onselen stopped referring to Morrison’s excuse-making for his

    ● poor economic performance,

    ● hideous debt (far higher than anything Labor ever incurred),

    ● high unemployment,

    ● massive numbers of deaths in Federally regulated institutions,

    ● obvious, blatant, obscene rorting and corruption,

    ● rampant nepotism and

    ● utter blather as regards policies, Surpluses and expenditures that are announced, then re-announced, without ever being enacted,

    as “brilliant politics” (then telling their readers and viewers that it is appearance that counts, not performance), we might get somewhere towards changing opinion on Coalition Economic management.

    These are the same gang of scribbling bastards who obsessed for years, from 2007 (and much earlier) right up to the Trades Union Royal Commission in 2014 about Julia Gillard’s kitchen renovation carried out over twenty years before yet, when confronted by real corruption and ignorance of corruption (not to mention adolescent naiveity) on the part of Gladys Berejiklian, condemn the former and exonerate the latter, out of hand.

    These are the same posse of pontificators who wrote long-form, in-depth articles on a “cruel” Labor “forcing” the parents of a primary school in inner Sydney to “endure” a blue steel boundary fence under the BER, rather than be provided with the more “aesthetically appropriate” Colonial Green version that they had set out in the list of “demands” of the Rudd government (one of the fathers was an architect, apparently).

    No matter that Labor had actually saved Australia’s economy (making it No. 2 or 3 in the world at one point, per capita), in yet another pathetically clichéd claim that “the Devil is in the detail” they condemned the lot – and continue to do so – over minor objections to styling, and a vanishingly small rate of valid complaints. That, and a minute number of deaths out of the massive Home Insulation program. All you have to do nowadays to get a collective snigger out of them is just say the word “pink”, followed by “batts” to end the argument, ANY argument.

    “Right OR wrongly”?

    There’s no question, on the facts: the correct word is “wrongly”.

    But these Sunday morning sycophants don’t give a shit about “facts”.

  18. zoomster @ #462 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:38 am

    guytaur

    As I said earlier, where the Greens work WITH Labor rather than against it, they’re rewarded.

    When they side with Labor to attack right of centre parties, they are rewarded.

    They have also shown that they don’t have to go after Labor seats to gain those rewards.

    And you would, of course, acknowledge that the following is also true …

    Where Labor work WITH the Greens rather than against them, they’re rewarded.

    When they side with the Greens to attack right of centre parties, they are rewarded.

    … wouldn’t you?

  19. John Hewson
    @JohnRHewson
    Double standard? Ardern is being lauded and electorally rewarded for what is virtually a COVID eradication strategy at very significant cost yet Andrews is being attacked everyday for his efforts to contain the virus.

    Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    ·
    14m
    As recently as 15 minutes ago by the Federal Government.

  20. P1

    Absolutely. But I actually haven’t seen much evidence of Labor attacking the Greens in the same way.

    I’ve experienced it on the ground – going out of my way to support a Greens event only to be attacked personally by the speakers — and ignoring that Mirabella was not only the sitting member, but she wasn’t THERE.

    You see it every day with Firefox’s tweets — the Green MPs he quotes making a point of attacking Labor. You don’t see the reverse in many ALP MPs’ tweet streams.

    I’m not sure which bit of ‘we should all work together to defeat the common enemy’ is so hard to understand.

  21. Andrews has just cut his own political throat I reckon. He is talking about November until opening up. Here in Victoria I will be amazed if people cop that. They are rebelling against these restrictions already and all his soothing words are going to do no good.

  22. P.S he has said that toy libraries will be open and that there are no exercise time restrictions. Why say that you are going to make significance announcements and then come up with this. Stupid. Now he is rabbiting on about the grand final. This is his dumbest political move ever!

  23. The Labor Green policy success of the ACT.

    Climate policy
    Euthanasia
    Cannabis legalisation
    Investment in public services
    Keynesian economics
    Marriage Equality
    Many more I am probably not mentioning.

    Be proud not ashamed Labor

  24. clem attlee

    Well, I’m happy. I can travel to a major shopping centre instead of my local one. House maintenance and pet grooming are allowed. Retail outlets and hospitality have a fortnight to prepare for opening.

  25. Rex, if the shops are open four weeks out from Christmas, what sort of crowds do you think will be out? The shops will be rammed and any advantage from delaying the opening of retail will be lost anyway. Fucking stupid saying that there will be significant easing of the lock down and then basically saying we are still in lock down. Wow, I can drive around Melbourne now for 25 K doing nothing and going nowhere, instead of 5K.

  26. Zoomster

    Still blaming the Greens not Labor I see.

    Labor success is not good enough for you.

    Your whole edifice of blame is proven wrong by the existence of the Labor Green alliance in the ACT.

    Edit: Be proud of Labor’s long term government.

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