Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.
That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:
• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.
• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.
• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.
• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.
• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.
I have read that when Morrison was ‘unable’ to return to Sydney and stayed in Qld overnight, he attended a Liberal fundraiser. I have no idea whether this is true but it seems in line with his normal deceptive behaviour.
BK:
Looks like a hospital cap.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #426 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 8:48 am
Even then you have to be careful. Like if the U.S. rejects Trump in a couple of weeks, it won’t be because people liked the Democrats’ policies. It’ll be because they couldn’t stand Trump and his shitshow.
Always dangerous to conflate a win with ideological support. Especially in systems which entrench “lesser of two evils” style voting.
Plibersek said, correctly, that some students would fall behind because of the Covid shutdowns. No one bothers to add that in Vic, a special group of teachers is being hired to tutor the disadvantaged.
BK @ #385 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 9:35 am
She’s been very visible lately – is she preparing for tilt at the leadership ?
lizzie @ #416 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:24 am
Yes a significant investment in tutoring from the Vic Govt for 2021 to get students in need back up to speed.
These things are filtered out of the news cycle by the corporate media with an anti-Dan agenda.
The premier Daniel Andrews will hold his daily press conference at 11am today.
guytaur @ #410 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:17 am
The fossil fuel cartel hasn’t infiltrated ACT Labor/Greens like it has Qld/NSW Labor.
Cat
The biggest lesson for Labor. Stop blaming the Greens.
NZ Labour got an increased vote after minority government with the Greens.
All the myth here that Labor loses elections after minority government in partnership with the Greens is exactly that. It’s a Labor myth as an excuse to blame the Greens.
The lesson is that working with the Greens means longer term Labor government.
Sometimes unlike in the ACT the Greens cannot combat the Labor it’s time factor. Or Labor mistakes in campaigning.
The lesson is that the Greens are not toxic to Labor winning elections.
Confessions
CCR were never as much about the whole Woodstocky thing as many bands of that era.
I like the riff from “Lodi”.
lizzie @ #419 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:30 am
Go the VIXENS !!!
guytaur
As I said earlier, where the Greens work WITH Labor rather than against it, they’re rewarded.
When they side with Labor to attack right of centre parties, they are rewarded.
They have also shown that they don’t have to go after Labor seats to gain those rewards.
Rex
I think you are right about the cause.
There has to be a reason why Federal Labor cannot crow the success of its long term ACT government.
This is something for Labor to be proud of. Not pretending that Labor is a loser for winning elections and remaining on the Treasury benchers
Mark David
Zoomster
You need to stop the propaganda.
The ACT proves your claim wrong every day.
Unlike Labor the Greens don’t pretend the carbon price is something to be ashamed of.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climate-tax/u-s-could-adopt-carbon-tax-under-a-biden-presidency-ex-fed-chair-yellen-says-idINKBN26T23L
guytaur @ #425 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:39 am
NSW/Qld/Federal Labor are under the policy control of fossil fuel unions.
This creates the Green wedge that causes them so much electoral pain.
guytaur
How does the ACT prove me wrong? Are the ACT Greens actively undermining and attacking Labor? I thought they were working well together.
But I’ll take your word for it that the ACT Greens spend their whole time attacking Labor.
Tudge, a Victorian, wants Melbourne to be like Sydney. 😆
BSA Bob:
I’ve just Googled and remarkably the band was only together officially as CCR for 4 years, yet their songs remain iconic 50+ years later.
Zoomster
Your response is why Labor is losing elections
That’s bunker mentality propaganda.
News for you. It’s Labor that’s the problem not the Greens.
Only in parts of Australian Labor is it impossible to work with the Greens. Unique out of the world.
ABC24 hosts parroting Tudge talking points as facts.
The ABC’s news and political content is truly lost to corporate influence.
Political influence, you mean.
The Donald, a scratched record with a big dose of terrified of not winning and whining Karen disorder. The blow to his ego would be devastating to him.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/lock-up-the-bidens-trump-says-as-he-struggles-to-reverse-his-deficit-20201018-p5663u.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/10/17/trump-biden-live-updates/#link-4I6JGLACQNB7NGCUXNLJU7ZL2A
a r @ #472 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:56 am
Who do you think is behind the political influence ..?
Of the little media attacks in the ACT election I saw, it was actually Labor attacking Greens as ‘crazy’ about gas that was most prominent.
ACT Labor takes swipe at Greens over ‘crazy’ gas phase-out plan
https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-labor-takes-swipe-at-greens-over-crazy-gas-phase-out-plan-21216/
Now where have I heard that ‘teh Greens are crazy’ line before?
As Rex points out the biggest difference is how sold out the ALP is to coal, gas and fossil fuel interests in NSW and Qld. The ALP is obviously like a rabbit in the headlights of Murdoch and not immune to using the NewsCorp media when they think it might be politically expedient.
How can the ALP be considered a real partner in climate action when there’s so much support and subsidy for the likes of Adani, Narrabri, Beetaloo and other fossil fuel projects? Even in the face of ever growing public pressure and hopefully collapse in the fossil fuels trade in the not too distant future.
The ACT has no minerals council or vested interests like the yellow queenslander running partisan campaigns of such mercenary self interest either
In the minds of many Australians the Greens have been successfully but wrongly painted as extremist by the political and media wings of the corporate oligarchy (a.k.a. the L/NP and Newscorp).
”Political influence, you mean.”
There is a lot of overlap. In particular, the Liberal party is the political vehicle of corporate Australia.
Read Van Badham’s column. Morrison = brain flow.
After reading an article on brain flow all I’ll say is my brain hurt.
Anyway,
FLOW Conditions
Clear goals
Challenge
Concentration
Feedback
Effortlessness
Control
Selflessness
Timelessness
Not sure about selflessness but it could explain the Waikiki wank.
PvO went and ruined it all by saying the state of the Economy will ensure a Morrison win at the next election.
● If the Economy is doing well, he’ll take the credit.
● If the economy is a disaster he’ll say “Imagine how much bigger a disaster it would be under Labor”.
Can’t lose, according to PvO, who prefaced his remarks by saying that, “Rightly or wrongly, Labor is perceived as weak on The Economy.”
“Rightly or wrongly”?
Perhaps if journalists like van Onselen stopped referring to Morrison’s excuse-making for his
● poor economic performance,
● hideous debt (far higher than anything Labor ever incurred),
● high unemployment,
● massive numbers of deaths in Federally regulated institutions,
● obvious, blatant, obscene rorting and corruption,
● rampant nepotism and
● utter blather as regards policies, Surpluses and expenditures that are announced, then re-announced, without ever being enacted,
as “brilliant politics” (then telling their readers and viewers that it is appearance that counts, not performance), we might get somewhere towards changing opinion on Coalition Economic management.
These are the same gang of scribbling bastards who obsessed for years, from 2007 (and much earlier) right up to the Trades Union Royal Commission in 2014 about Julia Gillard’s kitchen renovation carried out over twenty years before yet, when confronted by real corruption and ignorance of corruption (not to mention adolescent naiveity) on the part of Gladys Berejiklian, condemn the former and exonerate the latter, out of hand.
These are the same posse of pontificators who wrote long-form, in-depth articles on a “cruel” Labor “forcing” the parents of a primary school in inner Sydney to “endure” a blue steel boundary fence under the BER, rather than be provided with the more “aesthetically appropriate” Colonial Green version that they had set out in the list of “demands” of the Rudd government (one of the fathers was an architect, apparently).
No matter that Labor had actually saved Australia’s economy (making it No. 2 or 3 in the world at one point, per capita), in yet another pathetically clichéd claim that “the Devil is in the detail” they condemned the lot – and continue to do so – over minor objections to styling, and a vanishingly small rate of valid complaints. That, and a minute number of deaths out of the massive Home Insulation program. All you have to do nowadays to get a collective snigger out of them is just say the word “pink”, followed by “batts” to end the argument, ANY argument.
“Right OR wrongly”?
There’s no question, on the facts: the correct word is “wrongly”.
But these Sunday morning sycophants don’t give a shit about “facts”.
zoomster @ #462 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:38 am
And you would, of course, acknowledge that the following is also true …
Where Labor work WITH the Greens rather than against them, they’re rewarded.
When they side with the Greens to attack right of centre parties, they are rewarded.
… wouldn’t you?
538 on the mathematical ;possibilities of the Democrats winning the trifecta:
https://youtu.be/nRE4W4FtH3Y
John Hewson
@JohnRHewson
Double standard? Ardern is being lauded and electorally rewarded for what is virtually a COVID eradication strategy at very significant cost yet Andrews is being attacked everyday for his efforts to contain the virus.
Barrie Cassidy
@barriecassidy
·
14m
As recently as 15 minutes ago by the Federal Government.
Rex Douglas @ #474 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:04 am
Ita Buttrose? And/or the people/party that appointed her.
https://youtu.be/snOebCXlMbU
NSW has had five new Covid cases, four of whom were in quarantine: https://covidlive.com.au/nsw
Once again none in Qld.
P1
Absolutely. But I actually haven’t seen much evidence of Labor attacking the Greens in the same way.
I’ve experienced it on the ground – going out of my way to support a Greens event only to be attacked personally by the speakers — and ignoring that Mirabella was not only the sitting member, but she wasn’t THERE.
You see it every day with Firefox’s tweets — the Green MPs he quotes making a point of attacking Labor. You don’t see the reverse in many ALP MPs’ tweet streams.
I’m not sure which bit of ‘we should all work together to defeat the common enemy’ is so hard to understand.
LIVE: Victorian Government announces easing of COVID-19 restrictions | ABC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4sDb2JXD4s
Statement From The Premier
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-premier-77
Andrews has just cut his own political throat I reckon. He is talking about November until opening up. Here in Victoria I will be amazed if people cop that. They are rebelling against these restrictions already and all his soothing words are going to do no good.
C@tmomma @ #481 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 10:10 am
Hmm. The message I hear in this video is, that as a Republican who doesn’t like Trump you can feel safe voting for Biden. You’ll be ridding the party of Trump, but you won’t be risking the socialists ruining the country. That’s an interesting perspective.
P.S he has said that toy libraries will be open and that there are no exercise time restrictions. Why say that you are going to make significance announcements and then come up with this. Stupid. Now he is rabbiting on about the grand final. This is his dumbest political move ever!
Not sure what presser you’re watching Clem.
The Labor Green policy success of the ACT.
Climate policy
Euthanasia
Cannabis legalisation
Investment in public services
Keynesian economics
Marriage Equality
Many more I am probably not mentioning.
Be proud not ashamed Labor
zoomster @ #486 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 11:21 am
Then you are not familiar with the rantings of the Gibbons? I find that a little hard to believe.
Not only Joel himself, but all his adherents here.
Day in. Day out.
clem attlee
Well, I’m happy. I can travel to a major shopping centre instead of my local one. House maintenance and pet grooming are allowed. Retail outlets and hospitality have a fortnight to prepare for opening.
Sigh, what else is new with the orange looney –
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/521511-trump-digs-in-on-conspiracy-theory-over-bin-laden-raid
On another note: does anyone know if Saint Scotty of the Scarpering has congratulated Jacinda Ardern yet for her win in New Zealand?
Rex, if the shops are open four weeks out from Christmas, what sort of crowds do you think will be out? The shops will be rammed and any advantage from delaying the opening of retail will be lost anyway. Fucking stupid saying that there will be significant easing of the lock down and then basically saying we are still in lock down. Wow, I can drive around Melbourne now for 25 K doing nothing and going nowhere, instead of 5K.
Zoomster
Still blaming the Greens not Labor I see.
Labor success is not good enough for you.
Your whole edifice of blame is proven wrong by the existence of the Labor Green alliance in the ACT.
Edit: Be proud of Labor’s long term government.
P1
Oh, so ONE ALP MP versus all the Greens?
And no, I don’t pay much attention to Joel at all.
Wow Lizzie, now you can shop at a Woolworths 25 K away, rather than your local one Hooray.