Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “Around the traps”

Comments Page 4 of 27
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  2. I am sorry – did Dan close the NSW border?
    These people may be returning Victorians or NZ permanent residents. In any case if they want to go back To NZ they will be doing 2 weeks in quarantine.
    They and the airlines presumably knew that
    What is the issue?

  3. It’s clear the ramifications of the NZ bubble have not been thought through by ScottyFromAshley&Martins.

    Andrews point about explicitly saying to Morrison that Vic was not part of it, and suddenly finding 17 NZ bubble people showing up, is valid. I’m sure Dutton can leave his campaigning for Deb Freckles for a while to sort it out.

  4. Andrews really laying into federal health minister about playing politics. I bet that ‘journalist’ is regretting using a quote from Hunt to push an agenda.

  5. OC

    The issue is that Melbournians are on severe, some say draconian movement restrictions. Included is a suspension on international arrivals.

    The NZ bubble issue is not what the Vics want to be dealing with right now. The set up of the bubble should have made it clear to the kiwis that they could go to participating states, eg NSW and NT.

  6. Oakeshott Country @ #151 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 12:17 pm

    I am sorry – did Dan close the NSW border?
    These people may be returning Victorians or NZ permanent residents. In any case if they want to go back To NZ they will be doing 2 weeks in quarantine.
    They and the airlines presumably knew that
    What is the issue?

    As I said earlier;
    If they are Victorian’s returning home to fixed addresses then there is no real issue.
    If they are in hotels then there may well be issues as they will have to isolate to travel back via Sydney. Then again in NZ.

    That ScoMo’s team did not anticipate this happening is the big issue. How many others have dispersed to places they were not meant to go. It seems most were returning travellers and/or family reunions on yesterday’s flights. Little real tourism as they have to isolate on return to NZ, despite ProMo’s spruiking of the bubble.

  7. sprocket_ @ #152 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 11:18 am

    It’s clear the ramifications of the NZ bubble have not been thought through by ScottyFromAshley&Martins.

    Andrews point about explicitly saying to Morrison that Vic was not part of it, and suddenly finding 17 NZ bubble people showing up, is valid. I’m sure Dutton can leave his campaigning for Deb Freckles for a while to sort it out.

    Are you kidding?! Dutton takes his job very seriously.

    There will be no one crossing the border from LNP to One Nation or Mad Hatter’s Party if Dutton can help it. No time, money, effort or scare will be spared.

  9. The gloves are off.

    Daniel Andrews: “If Minister Hunt is genuinely suggesting that we are keeping this lockdown on because somehow we think Victorians are enjoying it or it is a choice that we are making, this is just – it’s just wrong.
    I will boldly predict that whatever I stand up here tomorrow and announce, there will be members of that federal government, some who are from Victoria but I don’t think they’re for Victoria, who will be out there saying ‘It is not enough, you should have done more’.
    Some people should reflect on the fact that they are in fact a health minister and that actually requires a certain standard.”

  10. Firefox

    ‘This is pretty funny coming from someone who is about as partisan as it gets and who regularly reduces themselves to attacking the left with lame stereotypes whenever they are confronted with truths that don’t align with what they have been told to believe..’

    Fine. When I do that, call me out – me, personally. Don’t lump me in with a whole bunch of other posters.

    My failings are my own. I’m happy to confront them – I think you’ll find I have a good record when it comes to acknowledging I’m wrong and apologising if so. (Something I’d encourage Nicholas to do on occasion).

    I’ve been critical of Labor here, particularly in recent times, so the idea that I’m some hyper partisan really doesn’t wash. For starters, I don’t hold any torch for Albo and are more critical of Dan Andrews than most posters here.

    As a Victorian Labor member who has never been involved in branch stacking and has never even belonged to a faction, I’m pretty p*ssed, for example, that my voting rights within the party have been removed.

    Calling Nicholas out for making a dubious statement is also not a partisan thing. I’ve certainly done it to C@ and bemused in the past, and even lizzie (but she’s not a Labor party person per se).

    I value the truth. If someone makes a statement I find dubious, I check it out.

    Nicholas was free to challenge my assertion that his statement was dubious. He could have posted the information that he was working on when he made his original claim. Instead he decided to go down the ‘you’re all blinkered partisans who are picking on me for being different’ line.

    That you support this shows that you’re the blind partisan here – resorting to lame stereotypes rather than admitting someone with the same political beliefs as yourself might actually have been WRONG.

  11. If Morrison spent less time on how his hair looks and shitcanning Labor Premiers, and more on managing the Australian Federation, we would be a lot better off.

  12. This is good to see and hear

    Andrews confidence is starting to get back up to the level , he is known for not taking rubbish from the libs/nats corrupt foreign own media propaganda units or Morrison and his cronies.

  15. Sohar @ #158 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 9:24 am

    The gloves are off.

    Daniel Andrews: “If Minister Hunt is genuinely suggesting that we are keeping this lockdown on because somehow we think Victorians are enjoying it or it is a choice that we are making, this is just – it’s just wrong.
    I will boldly predict that whatever I stand up here tomorrow and announce, there will be members of that federal government, some who are from Victoria but I don’t think they’re for Victoria, who will be out there saying ‘It is not enough, you should have done more’.
    Some people should reflect on the fact that they are in fact a health minister and that actually requires a certain standard.”

    Fantastic to hear!

  16. Again, unless the NZ travellers were completely brain dead they would have been aware of the severe restrictions required in Victoria. Almost certainly they are returning Vic residents or relatives. I don’t think anyone is leaving NZ to see the Penguin Parade

  19. I think it’s important to establish the identities of the NZ 17, first to make sure that they do know the restrictions in Melbourne, but also to know if they are part of the family clusters that have been so hard to shake. And have they moved on to Regional Vic?

  20. The Press Conference on a digital incoming passenger card.
    Given the two ministers are Tudge and Robert, I give it about 95% chance of failing. Their previous form is not good

  21. This latest attempt by corporate media to undermine Sutton/Andrews just shows how vacuous their agenda is.

    The beauty of the Daily Dans is that the huge Victorian (Australian) audience is getting the information directly, rather than through the corporate media filter.

  22. Tudge muddying the waters. I don’t believe him.

    Tudge says that the possibility of New Zealanders flying into NSW and then flying into other parts of Australia was discussed, and no Victorians raised any concerns.

    “The concept that people may be arriving into NSW and then potentially going on to other destinations was explicitly raised in the meeting [of the AHPPC],” he says. “And no official from any jurisdiction raised any concerns.

    “There was an understanding that when Kiwis…coming from a country with zero transmissions…once they arrived in Sydney they would be treated like every other person in NSW and be able to travel into any other jurisdictions that their visa enables them to travel into, including Victoria.

    He says that the passenger cards were requested this morning “just after 8 o’clock and they were delivered to the Victorian government at midday. So just 4 hours”.

  23. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    Immigration Minister Tudge doesn’t even know the nationality of the 17 people who flew from NZ to Melbourne #auspol

  24. Andrews has done well in staying firm with the lockdown. It doesn’t absolve him or his government of the debacle they are responsible for and the quarantine inquiry finds more and more questions about the integrity and actions of the government. I think he will resign at Christmas and I think he should resign then too.

  27. I think KRs anti Murdoch campaign is great. If he can make this his post politics pastime it will be good for democracy. We all know readership of actual newspapers is going down but the cockeyed and biased slant Newscorp puts on people and issues is undermining faith in democracy and their headlines and opinions influence morning television and ABC agendas for each day. Murdoch would love an oligarchy in USA and also Aus. I now hear so many people despair of all parties which is what Newscorp wants – to put ALP in the same boat as libs. Good on Rudd for championing this issue. Here in Qld.with the shockingly anti ALP courier it pays to look the other way when walking past a news stand. I would not be surprised to see a CM headline during the current election” ALP sucks – it’s official!!!!”

  28. PrincePlanet @ #175 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 1:09 pm

    I think KRs anti Murdoch campaign is great. If he can make this his post politics pastime it will be good for democracy. We all know readership of actual newspapers is going down but the cockeyed and biased slant Newscorp puts on people and issues is undermining faith in democracy and their headlines and opinions influence morning television and ABC agendas for each day. Murdoch would love an oligarchy in USA and also Aus. I now hear so many people despair of all parties which is what Newscorp wants – to put ALP in the same boat as libs. Good on Rudd for championing this issue. Here in Qld.with the shockingly anti ALP courier it pays to look the other way when walking past a news stand. I would not be surprised to see a CM headline during the current election” ALP sucks – it’s official!!!!”

    The petition is now up to nearly 300,000 signatures. I just checked. It might not go anywhere but a lot of people are expressing their dissatification.

  29. Ha!
    ‘Matt Martin Rose@victoriahotspot
    On behalf of the homosexuals of Australia, I’d like to apologise for Tim Wilson. Can we swap him for one of yours? Is Nick Cummins free? #auspol’

  30. Sam KoalaFace with medical mask@samstauntonpol · 1h
    725 cases to 1. The most successful handling of a 2nd wave that peaked so high in the world. And he did it with absolutely no help from the federal govt, no help to spread health messaging by the media, and never let the haters get to him. Fucking bravo @DanielAndrewsMP #DanForPM

  32. PrincePlanet @ #175 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 12:09 pm

    I think KRs anti Murdoch campaign is great. If he can make this his post politics pastime it will be good for democracy. We all know readership of actual newspapers is going down but the cockeyed and biased slant Newscorp puts on people and issues is undermining faith in democracy and their headlines and opinions influence morning television and ABC agendas for each day. Murdoch would love an oligarchy in USA and also Aus. I now hear so many people despair of all parties which is what Newscorp wants – to put ALP in the same boat as libs. Good on Rudd for championing this issue. Here in Qld.with the shockingly anti ALP courier it pays to look the other way when walking past a news stand. I would not be surprised to see a CM headline during the current election” ALP sucks – it’s official!!!!”

    Rudd has time on his hands. As a retirement hobby sticking it to Murdoch a good one. Turnbull’s lot may end up ruing the day they didn’t support Rudd’s nomination for that UN job.

  33. I wonder how Morrison would respond to a question asking him which method of managing a Covid-19 outbreak he would prefer – Dan Andrews’ or Donald Trump’s.

  35. Rudd’s petition gained 332 signatures in 15 minutes a little while ago, so while the momentum’s slowed down a bit it’s still going. If it can get 10-15 thousand signatures a day it will finish with about half a million signatures – not a bad effort.

    Now up to 299,404.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/petition_list

  36. BK @ #181 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 2:04 pm

    I wonder how Morrison would respond to a question asking him which method of managing a Covid-19 outbreak he would prefer – Dan Andrews’ or Donald Trump’s.

    He’d somehow deflect to his own brilliance in true marketing style.

    Haven’t heard much support for Victoria’s fight against Covid from Albanese either.

  38. “Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    Immigration Minister Tudge doesn’t even know the nationality of the 17 people who flew from NZ to Melbourne #auspol”

    THis is the Ruby Princess fiasco all over again. Remember then that not only were they allowed off the boat untested but many then went to the airport to fly interstate without anyone telling those states who they were or where they had come from. They didn’t even pass on the immigration arrival card details to state health departments.

    Six months on it looks like the same incompetent Federal department has made the same incompetent mistake. Will ScottyFromExcuses please explain? No wonder he blew off the national cabinet meeting.

  39. BK

    I tend to agree. Albo doesn’t know enough about the Victoria virus situation and doesn’t want to put a foot wrong. Actually, I can’t see Albo standing up the Feds as well as Dan has.

  43. People smugglers must be enjoying this because they now know the feds are useless once the person lands and gets past the airport so lets just fly them to some property and the feds are powerless.

  45. Steve777 @ #183 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 2:09 pm

    Rudd’s petition gained 332 signatures in 15 minutes a little while ago, so while the momentum’s slowed down a bit it’s still going. If it can get 10-15 thousand signatures a day it will finish with about half a million signatures – not a bad effort.

    Now up to 299,404.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/petition_list

    I had to explain to my son, the Millennial, that it wasn’t just another Change.org petition but that it was a petition on the Australian government website. Then he signed it.

  46. David Ingleton
    @Dingo1957
    · 1h
    Dan Andrews mentions 17 immigration cards. Within three hours Tudge and Robert are doing a Saturday lunchtime presser about new “digital cards”. Hmmm…. #auspol #spingst

  47. Stephen Parnis
    @SParnis (emergency physician)
    ·
    20m
    As we contemplate gentler months ahead, will we strike the right #COVID19Aus balance? At one end, some states policing their borders with razor wire. At the other end, an open slather summer that will land us where USA/Europe are now. Time for Federal Govt leadership. #auspol

  49. Kyle Kulinksi has a good piece about Joe Biden’s potential cabinet. Bottom line: the most powerful positions will be filled with corporate stooges and war hawks. Financial institutions and defence contractors will be amply represented. There won’t be any progressives. Regular people will continue to have their interests harmed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmcEPAFLjvY

  50. Kate Carruthers
    @kcarruthers
    · 1h
    A bill is before federal parliament to enable the ADF, Reserves & foreign military forces and police to be used in Australian emergencies. It gives them immunity from civil or criminal prosecution for actions arising from these emergency duties. https://johnmenadue.com/a-bill-to-enable-use-of-foreign-troops-or-foreign-police-in-australian-emergencies/

    Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    52m
    This legislation is both unnecessary and very dangerous.

    It is a political stunt to justify Morrison’s failure to deal with last summer’s bushfires.

    Drafted in haste or with malign intent or both. As drafted runs counter to s. 119 of the Constitution.

    But they’re too busy for ICAC.

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