Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “Around the traps”

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  2. zoomster

    They lose character with facelifts. I can’t forget seeing the Florida ladies visited by Miriam Margolyes, who all looked identical!

  5. Firefox’s Establishment voting:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/15/early-voting-us-election-turnout-record

    The fact of the matter is that if a person does not subscribe to the stupidities of the Faux then they will be characterised as either members or defenders of the Establishment or as elitist or as brainwashed.

    Plain as day, the Faux neither trust nor believe in ordinary people. They are not egalitarian. They are not democratic. They are political and intellectual swindlers

  6. “You’d also think that both of you would value truth over partisanship.”

    ***

    This is pretty funny coming from someone who is about as partisan as it gets and who regularly reduces themselves to attacking the left with lame stereotypes whenever they are confronted with truths that don’t align with what they have been told to believe. Like Cat, you suffer from an acute lack of self-awareness.

  7. Fresh from his visit to Queensland, the prime minister has little if any appetite to give an independent body the sort of ammunition it would need to hold him and his government to real account.

    I think that we can easily work out why that would be.

  9. The Faux are not Left. They like to think they are. They pride themselves on it. They’re mistaken in this. They are an anti-democratic schism that run a quasi alliance with the Right on the erroneous assumption that this will advance reform. Whatever their motivations are, the effect of their strategies is to reduce the political leverage of working people. If they didn’t exist of their own volition the Right would do very well to invent them.

  10. If that pic of Morrison is real (and I find it hard to believe) then he’s being very silly. Pretending to be younger does nothing to persuade us of his sincerity. It’s just another side of ScottyfromMarketing.

  15. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/16/linda-evangelista-praises-women-accusing-her-ex-husband-gerald-marie

    Gérald Marie personifies Establishment privilege and, it is alleged, the criminal abuse of that privilege. Is Firefox really saying that those who disagree with him are protectors of rapists? That is a reasonable conclusion to draw from the insults he directs against various bludgers. He should withdraw that classification and refrain from using it in the future.

  17. Barney….the self-Styled Left are nothing of the sort. They are delusional. It’s one thing to be self-deluding. It’s another to set out to deceive everyone else. They are swindlers.

  19. Covid-19 scares me. I think it scares a lot of people. Watching it rage around the world, daily, reinforces that fear. SARS-CoV-2 is incredible infectious. So I want to thank the people of Victoria for your sacrifice. I admire your strength and congratulate you on your success in so dramatically bringing Australia’s rate down. This threat to Australia is not over, but your effort has made it easier and safer for all of us in every State. Well done. Thank you.

  20. “ So Nicholas is allowed to denigrate and shame people who don’t vote the way he does because he’s the Good Guy. People who don’t vote the way he does, however, are not allowed to argue back.

    You don’t have to be intolerant and dictatorial to vote Green, but jeessh, it sure helps.”

    Basically evil.

  23. $1 million support package that will help animal exhibitors such as mobile petting zoos and travelling reptile exhibitors to ensure their animals are looked after while their businesses remain unable to operate.
    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/helping-mobile-exhibitors-care-their-animals

    Chris Eccles out Jeremi Moule in.
    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/in.jeremi-moule-appointed-lead-premier-and-cabinet

    A total of 12 coastal Crown land managers will receive grants of up to $80,000 each to develop and implement projects that reduce coastal risk and improve public access.
    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/grants-support-safer-coastal-access-communities

    With almost 620,000 Victorian households living in rentals, a new report released today gives valuable insight into the market in Victoria – showing who is renting, where they’re renting, and what kinds of issues they’re facing. There is a link to the report.
    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/inaugural-report-renting-victoria

  25. Josh Taylor
    @joshgnosis
    ·
    1m
    Victoria didn’t have a border closure and because people can still fly in to Victoria at their leisure (just not the other way around), there were no checks in place, I’m guessing.

  26. In a World where one country after another has a birth rate falling below 2, I see Bob Brown is carrying on about limiting population Growth.

  29. lizzie @ #124 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 11:31 am

    Josh Taylor
    @joshgnosis
    ·
    1m
    Victoria didn’t have a border closure and because people can still fly in to Victoria at their leisure (just not the other way around), there were no checks in place, I’m guessing.

    If they are Victorian’s returning home to fixed addresses then there is no real issue.
    If they are in hotels then there may well be issues as they will have to isolate to travel back via Sydney. Then again in NZ.

    That ScoMo’s team did not anticipate this happening is the big issue. How many others have dispersed to places they were not meant to go. It seems most were returning travellers and/or family reunions on yesterday’s flights. Little real tourism as they have to isolate on return to NZ, despite ProMo’s spruiking of the bubble.

  31. P1
    It may come as a surprise to you but birth rates in 2020 have little effect on population 1950 to 2020. But i long ago accept rational discussion is not your strength.

  39. From the Age blog
    Victoria Police expecting to receive addresses of New Zealand travellers to conduct welfare checks
    By Simone Fox Koob

    Victoria Police Deputy Commissioner Rick Nugent said he was made aware this morning that 17 people from New Zealand landed in Melbourne on Friday night.

    Police are expecting to receive their addresses soon so they can undertake welfare checks, he added.

    “I was notified this morning,” he told reporters at a press conference on Saturday.

    “We will have a role later today to check on their welfare and wellbeing prior to them moving, I understand, back to Sydney.

    “They are in Melbourne, they are not subject to detention orders but are subject to restrictions as all others are in metro Melbourne.”

    He said police should be provided with their addresses today, and will undertake welfare checks.

    He said the matter was being dealt with by the Department of Health and Human Services.

    “We have been provided advice they are not under detention orders, I don’t know the legality of it,” he said.

    “I’m not certain of when they plan to return to Sydney.”

  41. When I listen to Dan Andrews I can see that there are two fundamentally different ways to get people doing what you want them to do, leading and herding. Leading means convincing people to follow, and a shared vision is in control. Herding means convincing people to run away, and fear is in control. Herders instinctively fear leaders and seek to remove them. Leaders learn how to manage herders.

    EDIT: deleted “out”

  42. Last sentence on the current Age blog suggests Dan anticipated the Kiwis may come to Victoria and wrote to ScoMo yesterday about it.
    Now too late.

  43. frednk @ #130 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 11:42 am

    P1
    It may come as a surprise to you but birth rates in 2020 have little effect on population 1950 to 2020. But i long ago accept rational discussion is not your strength.

    I have no idea what point you think you are making by this comment, since it clearly contradicts your original one. But I long ago accepted that rational discussion is not your strength.

  45. Guardian blog. Andrews definitely unhappy with Border Farce

    Earlier Andrews continued to criticise the Border Force for allowing the New Zealanders in.

    He says: “Somehow, something has gone wrong in Sydney, I think, to allow people to travel on beyond international flight.

    “When you have an entire agency that is in charge of our borders who 12 hours after 17 people have turned up … can’t tell us who they are. That matters. It is a significant issue. I would like the cards and quickly, so we can have a proper discussion with these 17 people.”

  46. lizzie @ #143 Saturday, October 17th, 2020 – 12:03 pm

    laughtong

    I can’t see that. Dan is saying that he made it clear to PM that Vic is not part of the NZ Bubble.

    Hit the ‘more’ link
    Last paragraph
    The Victorian Premier said he had written to the Prime Minister to say he was “disappointed this has happened” given he had written to him on the same issue the day before.

  50. So, what’s the current covid situation in NZ? Is there any community spread there? Was there any testing conducted on the passengers before leaving NZ or arriving in Aus? I presume not as that is the whole point of a bubble, isn’t it?!

    Is there a restriction on people flying from Sydney in Melbourne? I presume once they land in a location they are subject to the same resrtictions as the locals, eg, treated like other Melburnians as pariahs.

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