Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A middlingly good reaction to the budget according to Newspoll, which does not record significant changes on voting intention or leadership approval from three weeks ago.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has the Coalition leading 52-48, out from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 3% (steady). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 65% approval and 31% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 39% approval and up three on disapproval to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister nonetheless narrows slightly, from 59-27 to 57-28.

The poll shows a broadly favourable response to the budget, which is rated good for the economy by 42% and bad by 20%, compared with 44% and 18% last year – although a lot more of the favourable response is merely quite good (35% compared with 29% last year) rather than extremely good (7% compared with 15%). Twenty-six per cent expect it will make them better off financially compared with 23% for worse off and 51% for uncommitted, which is less strong than last year (34% better off and 19% worse off) but fairly strong by historical standards.

Troublingly for Labor, 54% expressed more trust in “a Coalition government led by Scott Morrison” to “guide Australia’s recovery” compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”, and only 33% felt Labor would have done a better job on the budget compared with 49% for a worse job. This compares with 37% and 45% last year and is their weakest net result since the Coalition came to power in 2013, although it’s within the error margin of 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. No wonder McGuire seemed to have a lot of credence as a ‘door opener’ with the brown paper bag crew – was he bragging about his ‘connections’.

  2. Shellbell @ #84 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 7:51 am

    A look at the Victorian numbers since 20 September shows them to be operating a narrow range (except 22 September) between 5 and 15 cases daily cases with an average of around 11-12. … The present patterns looks a bit like the situation in Victoria in April-June pre quarantine.

    I haven’t looked at Victoria’s numbers in isolation but the Australian numbers look exactly like that, and Victoria’s cases through this wave pretty much are Australia’s numbers. The tail this time is bigger by a factor of three, based on a crude negative exponential fit added to the log-normal fit to better describe what is a fatter tail. While I wouldn’t read too much into the curve parameters, descriptive modelling isn’t causative, the problem I see with a long tail is the increased risk of more clusters. The trend at the moment points to just under 27,800 cases by the end of the year, and 930 deaths. This morning we were at 27,279 cases and 898 deaths.

  3. In today’s dawn patrol

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/kevin-rudd-and-the-murdoch-connection-20201011-p5642f.html

    Fairfax takes a cynical view of the Rudd petition. He may be the first witness called on the media/politics interface given his close interactions with Chris Mitchell in the halcyon early days of his government.

    Always remember in a Royal Commission there are only 3 acceptable answers:
    1. Not that I can remember
    2. Not in my presence
    3. Can I have a glass of water

  4. Oakeshott Country @ #154 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 10:38 am

    In today’s dawn patrol

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/kevin-rudd-and-the-murdoch-connection-20201011-p5642f.html

    Fairfax takes a cynical view of the Rudd petition. He may be the first witness called on the media/politics interface given his close interactions with Chris Mitchell in the halcyon early days of his government.

    Always remember in a Royal Commission there are only 3 acceptable answers:
    1. Not that I can remember
    2. Not in my presence
    3. Can I have a glass of water

    You forgot Lord Downer’s ‘I don’t/can’t recall’

  5. ABC News
    @abcnews
    ·
    29m
    #BREAKING: The Premier Gladys Berejiklian has admitted to the Independent Commission Against Corruption that she was was in a close personal relationship with former Wagga Wagga MP Daryl Maguire.

  6. ‘Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister nonetheless narrows slightly, from 59-27 to 57-28.’

    Slowlee, slowlee, slowlee, slowlee, slowlee, slowlee, slowlee, slowlee, slowlee, slowlee, slowlee, slowlee ctachee Scrooter.

  7. C@t

    I’ve been trying since yesterday. I think it’s pure luck to get through all three. A good example of the gov’s failure in all their internet services.

  8. @Diane_in_SA
    ·
    1m
    I imagine all LNP Federal Ministers are shocked and stunned that ‘using political office for personal gain’ is frowned upon! Who knew! #ICACNSW

  9. lizzie @ #168 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 10:48 am

    C@t

    I’ve been trying since yesterday. I think it’s pure luck to get through all three. A good example of the gov’s failure in all their internet services.

    How about this link, lizzie?

    https://www.aph.gov.au/petition_list

    Go down the list to EN1938 and then click on that.

    You need to be patient and wait for the blue circle thingy to stop pulsating. Then it’s all good. Well, it was for me. 🙂

  10. Steve davis
    Something like 90% of the population works in the private sector.

    Alpo
    That wasn’t a neoliberal budget because a true neoliberal would be chasing a surplus by limiting spending.

  11. Is Miracle Man still in Qld weaving his magic?
    Better hope it doesn’t work.
    The Qld punters couldn’t be that stupid, could they?

  12. 9News Melbourne
    @9NewsMelb
    ·
    3h
    Hopes of Melbourne businesses reopening have been dashed as the World Health Organisations advises against large scale lockdowns.
    @IzaStaskowski

    #9News

    Rod Clark
    @rvclark55
    6m
    No they don’t advise that at all.
    No wonder there are so many people who are fed up with the quality of Australian journalism.

  13. High court bid to end Melbournes lockdown: https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/hotelier-appeals-to-high-court-to-end-melbourne-s-lockdown-20201011-p5640q.html
    A high-powered legal challenge to the validity of Premier Daniel Andrews’ lockdown of Melbourne is set to be lodged in the High Court of Australia amid mounting business disquiet over the expected continuation of strict restrictions past October 19.

    Prominent hospitality figure Julian Gerner is behind the challenge and has engaged top silks Bret Walker SC and Michael Wyles QC to represent him. A writ of summons against the state of Victoria and a statement of claim from Mr Gerner is expected to be filed in Melbourne’s High Court registry as early as Monday.

    ________________________________________
    Bret Walker – Defence most recently for George Pell…
    Another 500 doctor signed letter released today headed by Dr Eamonn Mathieson – Anti-abotionist…

    The LNP Goon squad will stop at nothing trying to infect everyone in Victoria – and then blame Dan when it does happen…

  14. I have now had 10 goes at signing Rudd’s petition. I keep getting marked as a “robot” and being told to contact an “Administrator”.

    How you onto an administrator at APH I have not yet figured out. But I intend to break persistent.

    For what it is worth, I have never been marked as a robot by CAPTCHA before, despite my many years of piking out bridges, mountains or traffic lights on the photos.

    Can CAPTCHA settings be twiddled by admins?

  15. The difficulty will come, and it is quite unfair, is that when McGuire comes on – he will lie through his teeth and try to spread his corruption as far and wide as he can.

    Dom Perottet must be ruing the iCare dodgy business, could be the next NSW Premier into ICAC on his first day

  16. sprocket_ @ #186 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 11:04 am

    The difficulty will come, and it is quite unfair, is that when McGuire comes on – he will lie through his teeth and try to spread his corruption as far and wide as he can.

    Dom Perottet must be ruing the iCare dodgy business, could be the next NSW Premier into ICAC on his first day

    sprocket_,
    Well then none of them should have thought they could do dodgy stuff and not get caught for it like Labor.

  17. OC
    “Fairfax takes a cynical view of the Rudd petition. He may be the first witness called on the media/politics interface given his close interactions with Chris Mitchell in the halcyon early days of his government.”

    Last night (early hours of am, rather) I listened to Kevin Rudd talking about his Murdoch visit on A Rational Fear podcast last night.
    He was pretty forthright but funny when speaking of Murdoch. Her calls him Gollum . I don’t think Kev will be bothered about owning up to the visit and his opinions of Murdoch.

    He did get a bit snarky about JG and Mark Abib but that’s to be expected.

  18. Douglas and Milko @ #185 Monday, October 12th, 2020 – 11:03 am

    I have now had 10 goes at signing Rudd’s petition. I keep getting marked as a “robot” and being told to contact an “Administrator”.

    How you onto an administrator at APH I have not yet figured out. But I intend to break persistent.

    For what it is worth, I have never been marked as a robot by CAPTCHA before, despite my many years of piking out bridges, mountains or traffic lights on the photos.

    Can CAPTCHA settings be twiddled by admins?

    Fyi, I didn’t have to do the Captcha thing. I noticed it down in the corner and ignored it, just kept clicking through.

  19. Chris Eccles had to go because it is his job to know who was doing what when and how. His job is to be the Premier’s eyes and ears.

  20. Counsel Assisting has a very nice, smooth voice. Good for the old “not knowing the knife has gone in until it comes out”* move.

    Good to see they have boosted the intensity of the commissioner with retired appeal judge, Ruth McColl.

    *c/- Chief Justice Gleeson

  21. re that petition

    I spent most of yesterday robotically persisting, then as if by magic I was rewarded and I became human. The final step was an email from APH (which of course I had to retrieve from my JUNK folder) which contained a link that I clicked on. It was so simple I wonder if it is deliberate.

  22. Thanks C@t.

    My first go on a browser is like that, then it times out, and next go around I have to do the Captcha test. I will try a bit later, after rebooting my computer.

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