Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A middlingly good reaction to the budget according to Newspoll, which does not record significant changes on voting intention or leadership approval from three weeks ago.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has the Coalition leading 52-48, out from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 3% (steady). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 65% approval and 31% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 39% approval and up three on disapproval to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister nonetheless narrows slightly, from 59-27 to 57-28.

The poll shows a broadly favourable response to the budget, which is rated good for the economy by 42% and bad by 20%, compared with 44% and 18% last year – although a lot more of the favourable response is merely quite good (35% compared with 29% last year) rather than extremely good (7% compared with 15%). Twenty-six per cent expect it will make them better off financially compared with 23% for worse off and 51% for uncommitted, which is less strong than last year (34% better off and 19% worse off) but fairly strong by historical standards.

Troublingly for Labor, 54% expressed more trust in “a Coalition government led by Scott Morrison” to “guide Australia’s recovery” compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”, and only 33% felt Labor would have done a better job on the budget compared with 49% for a worse job. This compares with 37% and 45% last year and is their weakest net result since the Coalition came to power in 2013, although it’s within the error margin of 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. “Thousands of Victorians could be in bushfire danger because the state government has delayed a COVID-safe burn-off plan.

    It is understood a proposal for fire agencies to attend private properties to approve and help with planned burns was sent to the Department of Premier and Cabinet weeks ago after getting the OK from the United Firefighters Union”.
    ________________
    Since when do proposals for planned burns have to be ok’d by the UFU. Crisp and Neville again what a surprise.
    If we have a bad bushfire season this summer we know who to blame and it won’t be Morrison.

  2. Shellbell, you are correct – NPR is more for the intellectually open and inquisitive than ‘the Left’, though it’s easy to get them confused…

  3. frednk @ #1192 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 8:01 pm

    Always believed you can see the future by looking at engineering adverts. You can’t build stuff without engineers. There is currently serious national and international competition for engineers that know how to connect renewables to the Grid.

    An encouraging thought. Thank you.

    Engineers build the human world. (Others imagine it, show them how, etc.)

  4. This article finishes with the great Lin-Manuel Miranda line in Hamilton:

    ‘So what will it be? Treasury or State?’

    ‘Mayor Pete has found his format: the five-minute, remote-feed evisceration.

    He always looks so nice, Pete Buttigieg — handsome in that white, Midwestern, college yearbook way, with a smile that seems bucktoothed but isn’t and those perfectly, and apparently naturally, arched eyebrows.

    Last year, as we got to know him during the Democratic presidential nomination race, he bore the weight of being the first openly gay presidential candidate easily, as if it was no big deal. Sure, it takes a certain level of, shall we say, personal confidence to imagine that going from mayor of South Bend, Ind., to the White House is a possible career trajectory, but his was a quiet, respectful confidence, befitting a Rhodes scholar and a Naval intelligence officer.

    So maybe it should not be surprising to discover that when Buttigieg swore to do whatever he could to ensure the election of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, that “whatever” turned out to include “speak softly and carry a sling blade.”

    https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2020-10-12/pete-buttegieg-ruthless-rhetorical-assassin

  5. Taylormade @ #1201 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 9:08 pm

    “Thousands of Victorians could be in bushfire danger because the state government has delayed a COVID-safe burn-off plan.

    It is understood a proposal for fire agencies to attend private properties to approve and help with planned burns was sent to the Department of Premier and Cabinet weeks ago after getting the OK from the United Firefighters Union”.
    ________________
    Since when do proposals for planned burns have to be ok’d by the UFU. Crisp and Neville again what a surprise.
    If we have a bad bushfire season this summer we know who to blame and it won’t be Morrison.

    Did you see your mate Timmy in Parliament today? Had his arse served up to him on a plate.


  7. Late Riser
    ….
    Engineers build the human world. (Others imagine it, show them how, etc.)

    Exactly,it is happening because financiers have imagined a different World, it can only be built because of science. Engineers are late to the party. In Australia it would seem the politicians are even later.

  8. It occurred to me that a fertile field for an investigative reporter looking at the Mistress Berejiklian case lies in finding out to whom Daryl Maguire has been bragging:

    * that he has a season ticket to the Premier’s knickers,
    * she regards him as “numero uno”,
    * and that she is so compromised she can’t expose him without sullying her own reputation.

    It is obvious that significant numbers of politicians, drivers, neighbours, doormen, butlers, cleaning ladies, cabbies, Gladys’ girlfriends, Darryl’s mates and his “business associates” knew that Maguire was “well connected” to the very top of the political food chain in NSW. You just don’t get any higher than Premier of NSW as a 5-years duration bonk mate if you’re a spiv with an eye to advancement and profit.

    Also, from Berejiklian’s comments to Maguire along the lines of “I don’t need to know” it’s quite obvious that she knew quite a lot about the kind of shady activities he was up to and didn’t want to know any more.

    Who the bloody hell was Darryl Maguire until he became the Premier’s preferred dirty weekender? The answer is, of course: a nobody from Wagga Wagga. But add one Gladys, stir gently and bring to the boil, and you have the perfect makings of influence peddling fit to feed the masses.

    This was her offence against the State: she stood by and let her lover sell his privileged position as the Premier’s Boyfriend, for profit. She knew what he was up to, but thought as long as he didn’t show her the books and the slush fund cheque butts, or blab the details over the phone she’d be alright. As to why she persisted with him, despite all the evidence that he was using her for his own and his mates’ enrichment, let anyone here who hasn’t made a fool of themselves for love, or just for sex, step forward. Sainthood awaits you.

    The only problem with the “innocent girl falls for Bad Boy” scenario is that she was the Premier of NSW. She should have known, and acted better.

  9. Its always made me laugh Australians who’ve at best spent no more than a day in States like Ohio, Florida, Maine etc are wanna be experts on US electoral politics and will happily pontificate on NE-2 and what it means.

    What an indictment that Trump and Biden are the best they’ve got. What a disaster for Australia that we’ve so openly tied ourselves to a declining power in the States.

    Sam Dastyari was right!

  10. Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 9:19 pm
    ______________________
    Yuk – dirty talk from a dirty old man who has a problem with women.

  15. Finally a useful contribution from LVT, questioning posters ‘barely a day’ in Ohio, Florida etc. Yes, the weird electoral college contributions from weirdo nothing states like Maine and Nebraska are not worth understanding, let alone commenting on.

    In my case, the interest in US politics comes in part from 5 visits to the Land of the Free, including some on official business.

    One enduring memory of Florida was driving south from Orlando and passing rows and rows of what looked like shearer’s quarters – with the odd black person standing outside the open door. On asking, I was told ‘They are motels, where the down and out live’.

  16. ”Thousands of Victorians could be in bushfire danger because the state government has delayed a COVID-safe burn-off plan”

    Murdoch bullshit.

  18. I don’t profess to know more than Americans as to how their system works but simply by looking at the queues today and hearing stories of suppression etc, I do know that it is incredibly corrupt compared to us. I also know via half a dozen visits, work and pleasure, that it is an incredibly unfair system.

    The worst place I saw, admittedly forty years ago and it is no doubt a lot better now, was in Phoenix, Arizona, not far from Sky Harbour Airport. The area, apparently inhabited by the poorest Native Americans and Mexicans was appalling. The streets were dirt, less than 10k from downtown Phoenix. Absolute misery. I also saw some pretty shitty areas of Honolulu, Portland and, surprisingly, Las Vegas. Some of the smaller towns, particularly off the Interstates are simply depressing. Olympia, Washington, Kingman, Arizona., Parts of New Jersey.

    It is comforting to know that the party that stands to lose most by allowing the disaffected to vote is doing their level best to make it as hard as possible to allow those votes to happen. Fox News cheering them on.

    The IPA has a specific aim to get rid of compulsory voting in Australia. I wonder why.

  19. Giro d’Italia news. 2 riders (rather big names – Michael Matthews and Steve Kruijswijk) and 6 staff test positive to Covid. I’m betting that unlike the TDF which made it to Paris, this race ain’t finishing in Milan…
    The supposed bubble around the riders ain’t working.

  20. “ Giro d’Italia news. 2 riders (rather big names – Michael Matthews and Steve Kruijswijk) and 6 staff test positive to Covid. I’m betting that unlike the TDF which made it to Paris, this race ain’t finishing in Milan…
    The supposed bubble around the riders ain’t working.”

    With the second wave now gripping Europe, I suspect this might spell the end of this years pro tour. I especially think that the Vuelta – due to start next weekend in Spain – is particaulraly vulnerable to being cancelled.

  21. Dianne Gallagher
    @DianneG
    ·
    10h
    A record 126,876 Georgia voters cast ballots today on the first day of early voting, according to the Georgia Secretary of State.

  24. The Wall Street Journal
    @WSJ
    ·
    10h
    Johnson & Johnson paused all trials of its Covid-19 vaccine, including a final-stage U.S. study, after a volunteer had an unexplained illness
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/johnson-johnson-pauses-covid-19-vaccine-trials-due-to-sick-subject-11602555101?mod=e2tw

    An independent data-safety monitoring board is reviewing the study subject’s illness, the company said. The company didn’t immediately disclose more information about the illness, and said it needed to respect the subject’s privacy.

    This is the second time trials for a Covid-19 vaccine trial have been paused over a safety concern. Last month, AstraZeneca PLC paused clinical trials of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine after a participant in a U.K. study had an unexplained illness. The U.K. study resumed, but a large U.S. study is still on hold.

  28. Apologies if this has been posted before but this censorship of a journalist by Gladys’s office is disturbing.
    Hope this comes up in thIs current ICAC enquiry.
    https://www.theklaxon.com.au/home/how-chinas-virgin-australia-sold-out-the-national-interest?format=amp&__twitter_impression=true

    and then there is this other Chinese link to Maguire-

    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/australian-politician-sought-to-broker-chinese-deals-in-pacific-islands-inquiry

  32. @AaronKinKin1
    ·
    3m
    Australia’s “bloated for profit job agencies” largest provider is ‘Max Solutions’.

    An American based company with a chequered history of financial misconduct & discrimination.

    Their aim is to siphon billions in profits offshore, not to help the unemployed.

    …

    @mormorlady
    ·
    5h
    ‘One of the greatest failures is the bloated for profit job agencies which do bugger all to find people jobs while pocketing huge subsidies from the GOVT. This system is financed to fail’

    https://theaimn.com/creating-the-australian-new-deal/

    A bit of a rant, but the LNP should be brought to book over their cruel, costly treatment of the unemployed.

    One of the greatest failures is the bloated, for profit job agencies, which do bugger all to find people jobs while pocketing huge subsidies from the government. This system is financed to fail. Contrast this to the wonderful Commonwealth Employment Service which was run not for profit and was excellent at placing workers into jobs.

  35. Can I just give a shout out and a big THANK YOU, to the Disability Employment Agency, APM. They have gone so far above and beyond to try, and succeed, in obtaining employment for my son, after every operation he has had to have or unexpectedly had to have, that I just don’t think it’s fair to tar ALL the Private Employment Agencies with the same brush.

  37. Fighting the Great Recession with a Green New Deal

    When I became leader of the Greens, I said we were facing three crises: the climate crisis, an inequality crisis and a jobs crisis. I also said that the answer to all three is a Green New Deal, a government-led plan of investment and action that creates secure jobs by investing in a clean economy and making Australia more equal, including:

    * getting dental into Medicare;
    * making public schools genuinely free; and
    * a renewable energy grid to power our country, process our metals and export our sunlight as well.

    Now, as we start to emerge out of a pandemic that has seen the rich get richer, more than ever we need a ‘great equaliser’ of public investment to transform our economy and society.

    After a promising start of free childcare and real support for those out of work through Jobseeker and JobKeeper, the Coalition has reverted to type with cuts to these programs and a Budget that will increase inequality and pull us deeper into a climate catastrophe. Tragically, Labor last week supported most of it.

    [Continues…]

    https://greens.org.au/npc2020

  38. Nick Feik
    @NickFeik
    ·
    26m
    “An email sent by racing heir Louise Raedler Waterhouse to Ms Berejiklian was deleted from her personal account before corruption investigators could retrieve it”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/critical-email-deleted-from-berejiklian-account-icac-hears-20201013-p564q9.html

    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    55s
    Robertson asks a detailed question asking if Maguire used his political office, staff, resources, connections etc “with a view to making money for yourself and your associates?”

    Maguire: “Yes”

  39. David Speers
    @David_Speers
    ·
    1m
    11 cases of community transmission in NSW. Another 2 in hotel quarantine. .@GladysB
    says NSW was intending to announce further easing of restrictions in hospitality, but will hold off.

    Imagine if NSW opened up fully before Federal Election?

  40. Thanks firefox for reminding me I must post the Victorian Government press releases to provide something other than stunts for the day.

    Online training package for Workers joining the grains industry for this season’s harvest.
    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-training-supports-grains-industry-workers

    43 media outlets and publications across Victoria will share in $500,000 through the Multicultural Media Grants Program.
    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/multicultural-media-boost-reach-more-victorians

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