The latest Newspoll in The Australian has the Coalition leading 52-48, out from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 3% (steady). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 65% approval and 31% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 39% approval and up three on disapproval to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister nonetheless narrows slightly, from 59-27 to 57-28.
The poll shows a broadly favourable response to the budget, which is rated good for the economy by 42% and bad by 20%, compared with 44% and 18% last year – although a lot more of the favourable response is merely quite good (35% compared with 29% last year) rather than extremely good (7% compared with 15%). Twenty-six per cent expect it will make them better off financially compared with 23% for worse off and 51% for uncommitted, which is less strong than last year (34% better off and 19% worse off) but fairly strong by historical standards.
Troublingly for Labor, 54% expressed more trust in “a Coalition government led by Scott Morrison” to “guide Australia’s recovery” compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”, and only 33% felt Labor would have done a better job on the budget compared with 49% for a worse job. This compares with 37% and 45% last year and is their weakest net result since the Coalition came to power in 2013, although it’s within the error margin of 2015, 2016 and 2017.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.
Got to love Marnus!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1315237824568803329
Oh dear – Albo isn’t going to last the distance.
I doubt Albo will win an election with a gender war as a major plank.
So, tell us again all you gibbons … you know – how Albo has gotten his mojo back and is going to romp home come the next election 🙁
I see the glib one is being glib again.
You asked for it. You’re welcome…
Supercilious P1 chimes in with a rebuttal to a point that no one made.
The budget and reply marks the beginning and not the end of the game.
Lots of water to flow under the bridge over the next 12 – 18 months.
Better a ‘gibbon’ than a Bonobo like you, P1. ;>
Player One @ #4 Sunday, October 11th, 2020 – 9:08 pm
Is it a repeat of Shorten’s great strategy which would win the last election? Some believers do a disservice to the party by unquestioningly trusting instead of constructive criticism.
Morrison and Frydenburg presented a budget on Tuesday night that was full of headlines, dropped hundreds of dollars into workers pockets, poured billions into other areas,
, left the country with a trillion dollar debt and gave punters three days to inhae the “ benefits” while Albanese delivered his response on Thursday night with little opportunity for Aussies to think about anything before Newspoll was out and about and Morrison gets a bump of one percent !
Give me a break. Voters think that the Mortison budget will get Australia back on track. What happens when it does not ?
Yes, let’s just wait and see how Morrison goes at his next real electoral contest, seeing how he has taken over the running of the Queensland state election from Frecklington and the LNP.
Punters bought and sold for $1000 again as I predicted. They will never learn.
So, Morrison goes $1 Trillion dollars into deficit and all he gets is a 1 point bounce. 😀
Highpants gets around smiling like halfwit and the punters wet themselves.
Not surprised in the least bit although I thought it’d be 53/47
A one percent bounce is MOE and nothing more. Get real.
One trillion dollars in debt and a one percent bounce ?
Compared to other post budget Polls over the years I would think this is on the mild side.
“sprocket_says:
Sunday, October 11, 2020 at 10:11 pm
You asked for it. You’re welcome…”
Hey sprocket, are you asking the Liberal stormtroopers posting here to think?… Sorry mate, their three neurons are all busy spinning….
So far so good for Albo and the ALP…. Now they only need to stop the emergency “we are all in this together” and start going hard against ScuMo and his gang, as they develop, explain and publicise their alternative Progressive program.
ScuMo is back to the usual Coalition Neoliberalism, Albo and Labor have an alternative Social Democratic program to offer.
cat,
Snap !
People are stupid – thats why Americans got Trump, and UK got Boris.
BTW, the poll has greens losing a point to LNP.
CNN has had a number of good articles on the NZ PM. This is another.
“The small-town takeout store worker who won over New Zealand — and the world”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-election-intl-hnk-dst/index.html
C@tmomma @ #13 Sunday, October 11th, 2020 – 9:24 pm
Yes, it’s an expensive dead cat bounce. And when the reality of the pretend recovery hits home, the poll lead will evaporate. Morrison will have to hang on for the full 3 years and hope something else comes up in the meantime.
Highpants gets around smiling like halfwit and the punters wet themselves.
There is hope – 48% didn’t wet themselves.
Somehow I have the suspicion that after the next Federal election Newspoll again will change their criteria to allocate second preferences…
… we will see….. 🙂
Let us see how it all plays out when the delivery does not match the rhetoric.
Morrison has gone down the bandaid route and not the medium/ long term revovery path.
Morrison has picked the private sector to lead any recovery while labor has gone the government needs to take the lead response.
One post budget Newspoll showing a One percent bounce to Morrison has bought the soothsayers out tonight !
I am wondering how many desperates on Pollbludger get the,Simon Benson Email every three weeks ?
Long way to go and Morrison has promised so much.
“C@tmommasays:
Sunday, October 11, 2020 at 10:20 pm
Yes, let’s just wait and see how Morrison goes at his next real electoral contest, seeing how he has taken over the running of the Queensland state election from Frecklington and the LNP.”…
“Baseball bats” are ready for him here in Brisbane!!
Anna is seen as a strong leader ready to take hard decisions in order to protect the wellbeing of all Queenslanders. This has forced Frecklington and ScuMo into the opposite corner of trying to be “lovely” …. If they believe that they can attract voters in this state with that, good luck to them….
The private sector and businesses to lead the recovery. And people truly believe this shit.
This article by Gareth Hutchins explains a lot about why we had <2% unemployment from 1941 to 1975, but now Josh calls 5% “full employment”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-11/federal-budget-why-frydenberg-wont-be-pursuing-full-employment/12751566
Steve davis,
The private sector to lead any recovery is what the ideological driven Morrison is depending on.
When it does not happen voters will fall out of love very quickly.
Government must power any recovery. Otherwise Australia is fucked.
Doyley.
Morrison couldnt keep the economy out of the recession before Covid, so there no fucking chance of recovery now.
The private sector to lead any recovery is what the ideological driven Morrison is depending on.
Yep, it’s Say’s law all over again.
Labor Force comes out on thursday.
Its tipped to be >8%. If that guess holds, then it will probably only get worse after Xmas.
I think the Labor Reply was good from Albo. Though there’s a question about follow up. He needs to go around and remind everyone of what he is offering and what they are missing out on with Morrison.
It would be interesting to see Albo get a question about KRudds calls for a RC into news corps.
Labor need to talk about they jobs they will create. Talk about the jobs the LNP is letting go. And then go back to talking about the jobs they will create. If everyone thinks Scotty will go early, then thursday night was kickoff on the campaign.
Steve,
Exactly.
We are in unique and never before explored territory.
The rhetoric and expectation for an” Morrison led recovery “is huge. When it does not happen perhaps the “ Morrison recession” meme will take hold.
No one wins or loses anelection until it is held.
Plenty of time, sadly, for Australia to go arse up.
In my ill informed opinion in this particular set of unique circumstances any historical comparison is bullshit in the sense that never in recent history has this country been more dependant on government getting it right.
Morrison, JoshF. and the media have pumped up the tyres of this Commonwealth government and this budget so much that Australians are hanging out for the recovery to happen and when it does not then we shall see how it unfolds.
Cheers.
B B C news has the news of Rudds petition against Murdoch.
BTW,
Perhaps the reason labor has “lost” ground on doing a better job with the economy is because of the unique circumstances atm and because Albanese, rightly I would argue, has decided not to lead a negative opposition and has supported most of the government legislation.
Historical comparisons:in this umiqe economic and helth situation are , in my ill informed opinion, useless.
The Budget reply speech was only on Thursday and I’m pretty sure they would have started this survey before that.
A $200 billion deficit is a substantial contribution to the economy but ultimately the private sector will need to carry a large proportion of the load. When will be a matter of how Covid progresses. There will be no real recovery before humanity largely recovers from the virus.
At best it will take a few years.
BTW one last time tonight,
Josh announced the budget on Tuesday night. Plenty of coverage. Albanese gave his reply on Thursday night, the very same night Newspoll was out and about. Let us see how the labor child care announcement flows through before making any judgements about how it will affect the next election.
Good night to all. My bottle of red is finished and thus time to go to bed.
Davidwh:
As Nicholas may well point out, if there ends up being a $200b government sector deficit then there will also be an improvement in private sector balance sheets of about the same magnitude. This needs to be adjusted for the external balance of course; that will change but is unpredictable.
If a $200b government sector deficit materialises, then there will be a very large reduction in private debt. The effect of this are difficult to predict, but it seems likely that the investment component of private sector debt (and hence financing more generally) won’t return to previous levels in the absence of significant technical change adopted in the private sector. In Australia this is, as you say, very likely to take years; principally because the main driver of technical change in the Australian economy is importation of technology, and this driver is malfunctioning as Australia’s main sources for technology (US and UK) are in a mess and not exporting new technology (Germany is OK however) .
Since technical change is the principal driver of growth (75%+ real growth is derived is derived from technical change) it would follow that relying on the usual mechanism—private sector adoption of technical change—is unwise as the main driver is malfunctioning. It is therefore probably the case that unusual measures are required, similar to putting the economy on a war footing and heavily favouring organic technology (as was done in WW2).
Lizziesays:
Sunday, October 11, 2020 at 11:17 pm
“B B C news has the news of Rudds petition against Murdoch.”
On the BBC but not the ABC – figures
I’m awash in idle thoughts tonight… but does anyone seriously believe any one poll? I realise that polls are the “food for thought” for PB, adding grit to the oyster, so to speak, but do any polls have credence? I was hoping that something similar to the British Polling Council would emerge in Australia, but from what I’ve seen each pollster has taken their own independent approach to “doing better next time”. For me polls have lost their lustre until at least the next election is successfully forecast, or maybe the one after that. For now…meh.
I believe the plethora of polls that have shown Labor not really moving the needle all year. Whether this is a damning indictment of or a spectacular showing from Labor depends upon how you factor C19.
Governments that have been successful in controlling their outbreaks have received a surge in support (as have some that haven’t). Australia has controlled its outbreak well compared to most other nations. More due to the states than any competence or planning on Morrison’s part, but that won’t stop Morrison from getting credit for it.
a r, maybe. But I think the current crop of polls are tea leaves. You can read anything into them. I don’t know enough to say. Maybe the Qld election could return some confidence to polls that are willing to take the plunge.
Nothing much has changed.
If trickle down economics work then the government has done the right thing, if not they are screwed along with the rest of us.
I see.
The site has lost its login function on the sidebar, and now you have to make a comment in order to log in.
Is this due to ar’s plug in, or something wrong with the site itself?
And apparently still not logged in.
WTF?
Morrison is on a blackmail campaign in QLD
If QLD rejects LNP at the upcoming election,Morrison leadership will likely follow the way of Abbott and Turnbull, doubts Morrison will be the leader of the liberal party at the time of the upcoming federal election
The Last 2 Liberal Party leaders before Morrison lasted average of around 2 years after being re-elected at the federal election
23 Days till US election!
The majority of Australians are unable to name the current PM, his electorate, the state or city in which he resides and certainly not his new found manufacturing prowess.
The punters mostly have money in their pocket and the amount gambled on the Melbourne Cup will reach an all time high.
This government is a blatantly corrupt political force swilling in the comfort of a complicit media and is allowed to go about its shenanigans unchecked.
Voting for Morrison and his cronies is similar to consuming corn flakes with no obvious nutritional benefits and a rather bad habit.
While the country is allowed to be dug up the voters will be none the wiser.
Thank goodness for competent State Premiers for protecting all Australians from the virus and the convenience food PM.
Morrison seems to be as cocky as Turnbull was at the time of the QLD election
And we know what happen at and after the QLD election , lets hope it happens again